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The Wiz

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  1. I am on it....someone let me know when the plane takes off from Iona.
  2. For the "casual observer" check Chance to Dance.
  3. As we await news on where and when our next game will be ...here is an interesting article from Lunardi on what constitutes a bad loss. We even get a shout out in the article. I think the take away for Bills fans is the difference between a bad loss and what I would call a painful loss. A painful loss is one you should have won. A painful loss though isn't necessarily a bad loss. Leading in the final minutes of a game only to watch it slip away is painful. But our losses were not to bad teams. A computer can do one thing a Bills fan can't do....take the emotion out of the wins and losses....which is why Lunardi and I are both more optimistic than some Bills fans are. One last thing...I am not a big fan of the NET...it is a tool...(yes ..a double meaning) . But if you want to use it in the best way possible, you have to think like a selection committee member. Instead of looking at The Bills NET rating...look at The Bills opponent's NET rating for a better idea of what goes into the Committee's selection process. www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/32965626/bracketology-new-year-resolution-redefine-bad-losses
  4. That is good news.... Game analysis once the plane is in the air....
  5. Update...Injury report...Jan 5...Linssen still listed as questionable....uncertain at this time if he will play Sat.
  6. Hmmm...12th seed....Maybe the Loon reads The Wiz's forecasts.
  7. No analysis of this game unless I see The Bills on a plane headed to Olean.. If they are, I will update this page. Other notes ... Injuries....update a/o 1/2/21...Linssen (ankle)...missed 1 game and Courtney (illness )...missed 2 games...are both listed as questionable for the Sat. game. It is unknown at this time whether they will be able to play against St. B Mellouk...F...11/27/21...Out indefinitely...Undisclosed injury...no timetable on a return Chance to Dance.... The Bills....54% Dav............48% VCU............41% I am missing 3 games for a full data set (1 SLU and 2 St. B ) It would have been nice to have the stats from the Ford / St B game on Wed. especially since St. B will have over a 3 week layoff by the time we play them. The numbers may vary a bit but one thing is clear at this point, we are the better team. Stay tuned for updates.
  8. Frank Cusumano is reporting unofficially that the game will be postponed and that The Bills are looking for a replacement game.
  9. You heard it here first... ...Bills are the best in the A-10
  10. No analysis this game unless I know they are playing this one. If they do, I will update this page. In the meantime , you can check out the post game analysis on the Rich spread thread to find out the how and why of that game. A few other notes ... Injuries....Linssen (ankle) and Courtney (illness )are both listed as questionable for the Wed game. It is unknown at this time whether they will be able to play against LaS. Finally ...Chance to Dance.... The Bills....54%....dn Dav............48%...up VCU............41%....dn The win against Rich didn't really help our chances because we did exactly what we were supposed to do . Stay tuned
  11. A nice win for The Bills and for me....There was uncertainty for SLU which created uncertainty for me. But the Bills played well enough to win and I nailed the point spread. What you don't know is I also had the exact score of the game. Also, not advising people on gambling but anytime you see a 3+ pt difference between me and Vegas....just saying.... It was not always pretty...but given the circumstances ...a good win. Let's see what happened....Bolded statements from original post.... Rich looks like a team that is fading. .... The stats showed it ....the game proved it how will the layoff affect the team?....we haven't played since Dec 18th. ..I made this statement because I feared the team would come out rusty....and they did look rusty especially from the arc. It wasn't just that we didn't have a game since 12/18 but almost no practice. That can make a difference in sharpness. 47/38/75... This was a miss from the arc... with 3 more 3s, we make the slash We need to dominate on rebs...we need to out rebound then by 7 ... This was a big miss ...we got out rebounded by a poor rebounding team...How did this happen ....2 factors...#1 I think we would have closed the gap had Linssen played... #2 Rust again...It looked to me like we did ok on blocking out but we were a step slow to getting the ball...again rust...we lost a step. Hold Burton, Golden and Gilyard to a combined 33 pts. ... This too didn't work out ...BUT... these 3 guys accounted for almost 3/4 of Rich pts and then they shot only 41%....2nd chances got them over 40%...so even though a lot of pts ...we still defended well....The good news is the rest of the team didn't do much...it usually takes more than 3 players to win a game. Hmm... well then how did we win? And to go with that question ...How did we close them out in the final minutes with a small lead? The answer to both questions is TOs. We need to try and match them on TOs. While they are great at protecting the ball, we come in at B+ in forcing TOs. I think that will be good enough to close the TO gap. ...The computer showed that they would have 4 less TOs than us...we needed to take care of the ball . We did...We beat them by 2 TOs and that was the ball game...a swing of 6 TOs in our favor was huge....It wasn't that that they had a bad TO game ...they only had 11...a good number but we had an outstanding 9.... of those 9 ...7 TOs came in the not so good 1st half. But only 2 in the 2nd half ...AND NONE IN THE FINAL 13 MIN (which means #1 stealer ITN had none down the stretch) . And that fellow board members is how you close out a game...all 3 of those blown wins in the last few games featured The Bills turning the ball over in the closing minutes of the game....No TOs in the final 13 mins is how you close a game out. Bottom line... a good win... even though we were a little off. With a few days of practice (maybe a week) we can sharpen up as we move into the meat of the conference schedule.
  12. Chance to Dance.... The Bills....56% Dav...........46% VCU..........45% We continue to hold onto our A-...Rich comes in as a B team...trending at B- . Coming off a horrible loss to St. J, Rich looks like a team that is fading. Now is a good time to play them. They have a so-so offense and a weak defense. We will get looks at the basket ... we just need to make shots. I think if it wasn't for the layoff , we would be favored by double digits. Let's take a look at the report card.... . ....................SLU....................Rich..........................SLU.........................Rich .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............A+..18th ITN......C+..............................C..............................D+ FG%...............B+......................B-................................C-............................D 3Pt%.............A-........................B-..............................B-.............................D FT%...............B+......................D+................................................................. Reb...............B+.......................F+................................A.............................F+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off....Reb.....Def....Reb Down....Off...FG%...3P%...FT%.....Def...PPG...FG%...3P% Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN FTM/gm....The Bills...2nd...unch FTA/gm....The Bills....3rd....up FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...2nd...dn FTA / Offensive play...The Bills........5th...up Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins...1st...unch...you can't do better than best Stls......Collins....22nd....up Rich Assts....Gilyard...10th Stls.......Gilyard ...1st PPG.......Burton....55th Least TOs by a team...Richmond ...10th Injury/ Illness SLU...updated Dec 30...Williams and Courtney still listed as ill...both listed as questionable for Sun....it is unknown if they will be able to play at this time. Keys To The Game... Rich doesn't turn the ball over . They can't reb. Gilyard is a steals and assists guy similar to Yuri. Whoever he guards will have to hang onto the ball. The Bills are the better team...how will the layoff affect the team?....we haven't played since Dec 18th. WWN2D2W We need to dominate on rebs...we need to out rebound then by 7 to make the spread...we should be able to able to overpower them by 10+ rebs. The Bills need to be able to make some baskets...47/38/75..we will get looks ...the layoff is a concern on the shooting....again the rebs could help in making the baskets...2nd chances. Burton and Golden are their scorers with Gilyard feeding them. If we bother them, they could go from a so-so offense to bad. Hold Burton, Golden and Gilyard to a combined 33 pts. We need to try and match them on TOs. While they are great at protecting the ball, we come in at B+ in forcing TOs. I think that will be good enough to close the TO gap. Bottom line...Can the Spiders beat us?...No...Can we beat us?...Yes...Play ball (including closing the game out) and we win. Let's catch the Spiders in a Billiken web.
  13. I know , I recently did a preconference outlook... but in light of some of the recent events and discussions, I thought I would add a few more thoughts. In preseason (before Perkins injury) I had The Bills as the best team in the A-10 ,,,as in dominant. After the injury we were still the best team but only marginally. PPI (pre Perkins injury), I had us going to the NCAA...Now, we still may go but it is shaky...56% in Dec is not a lock but it is still the best % in the A-10 right now. Those 3 almost wins would have been wins with Perkins...he was a closer....think LSU game. On top of all this, we have an X factor now (again) with Covid. How many games will we play? ...how many will the other teams play in the A-10?...when figuring out who will win ...how many players will each team have available?...how many will play at less than 100%?. My computer figures that all the remaining games will be played and everyone will be healthy ...until they aren't played or are not healthy. The Net tracker (as all other basketball systems ) has the same issues...faulty or incomplete data. The difference is ...the NET has something that no other system has ...a "fixer". The Committee that comes in after the season and fixes things (yes double meaning). This year the Committee will have a bigger role than usual (like last year) and will help the NET to find the "best" teams. Key to the season...Most systems including the NCAA and especially the Committee look at the final 10 games of the season to help them decide things. Assuming 3 games in the A-10 tourney...the final 7 games will be very important...starting with the Feb 8th LaSalle game. I know many on the board think the chances for a bid are over because of the "3 (almost win) losses" but the fact is we are not only still in the running but we have the best chance of any A-10 to get a bid...even if our margin for error is small. The only team that can stop us now is us. Chance to Dance .... The Bills...56% Dav...........46% VCU..........45% Wishing all on the Board a happy and healthy and winning New Year.
  14. I do the same...In my preseason forecast I always show 3 W-L records...best case , worst case and most probable....These are not always 50-50 games but games that are close enough that the could go either way. The best case shows we win them all ....the worst case shows we lose them all....or most probable shows we split them. in this year's forecast, there were 6 maybe games. In my probable forecast, I use 3-3...I then force the computer to make a choice and it showed us 4-2. So far, we are 1-1-1 against against Boise, Aub and Drake....although right before the Drake cancellation the model moved the outcome to a win for SLU...too bad, that would have been a nice win. UMass is NOT one of those "swing games. That game was showing in the win column in the preseason forecast and is still in that column now. As I pointed out in my original post and slu72 emphasized in his post above, their 3 point shot could come up and bite us. I am showing they will make a eleven 3's. If they make more than that , we may have a problem. Again, as I pointed out in the original post, as long as we get the rebounds , we should be OK...more 2nd chances for us and less for them. You and slu72 can now come in off the ledge.
  15. And we beat Boise in OT...the ultimate close out game... at one of the tougher venues in the country.... The Bills have a 66% chance to beat Mass at their place.
  16. Chance to Dance The Bills...56%...up Dav............46%...unch VCU............42%...dn Aub seems like ages ago. But the fact remains ...we still had a chance to win that game with 2 seconds left to go. I can tell you, we don't have anyone left on our schedule that is even close to Aub. We have the capacity to win all the remaining games. Our toughest opponent going forward will be ourselves. Next up UMass (C+ )...We are still at A-.... For a forecaster these are tough times...as both teams have a number of people on the injury/ illness list. With all the variables that go into a basketball game not knowing who will play has now moved to the top of the random list. This will be an unusual game with some interesting challenges. UMass has a very good offense.. though not as good as ours. They are 10th ITN in 3P shooting. This is why this game is as close as it is. If they get hot from the arc, it could spell trouble. They have four 3 pt shooters...one now is out for the season with a broken leg and another is questionable with illness (see injury/illness report below) But that still leaves the Kellys (CJ and R...not related) both shooting at nearly an unbelievable 50%. They both take more 3s than 2s. So it will be important to slow them down. While there is danger on the horizon, there is also some good news. UMass has one of the worst defenses ITN. We will have our opportunities...we just need to capitalize on them. Another factor, which will be a plus for us, is they aren't vary good at rebounding. Again, we need to take advantage of this...2nd chance pts...Bills ..yes...UMass ..no. Time to look at the report card.... ....................SLU....................Mass..........................SLU.........................Mass .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............A+..17th ITN......A-..............................C..............................F FG%...............B+......................B................................C-............................F-..11th WITN 3Pt%.............A-........................A+..10th ITN..............B-............................F FT%...............B+......................C+................................................................. Reb...............B+.......................F................................A..............................C- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off....Reb.....Def....Reb Down....Off...FG%...3P%...FT%.....Def...PPG...FG%...3P% Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN FTM/gm....The Bills...2nd...unch FTA/gm....The Bills....4th...unch FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...2nd...dn FTA / Offensive play...The Bills........5th...up Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins...1st...unch...you can't do better than best Stls......Collins....22nd....up Mass Assts...Fernandes...29th 3P%...CJ Kelly...78th...R Kelly....91st Injury/ Illness report SLU Williams...G...12/26/21... Illness ...Questionable...Remains to be seen if he will play Thur Courtney..."........".............."....................".........................."...................."...................."............. Mass Walker.........F...12/7/21...Fractured Femur...Out for season Fernandes..G....12/26/21...Illness...Questionable...Remains to be seen if he will play Thur TJ Weeks....G.........".............."................."........................."......................".................".............. Long way to go till game day...I will update the injury/illness report if things change. WWN2D2W Stop the 3...Keep them as a team below 40% from the arc. Slow the Kellys down...keep them to 21 pts combined...hold the next 2 high scorers not named Kelly to 21 combined also. We need to dominate the boards ..by at least 5...we should be able to go double digits. TOs could be an issue...not because they are adept at forcing them but because they are good at holding onto the ball...no more than 12 TOs. Bottom line ...This has the potential to be a high scoring game...a shootout ...a battle of the 3s. If we play perimeter defense and grab some rebs ...the Minutemen's time may run out.
  17. Thanks Btw...for those who haven't figured it out yet....Players listed in the poem were the 6 players with the most min/gm listed in order.
  18. 'Twas the night before Christmas when all through the Fetz Nothing was stirring, not even the nets; The banners were hung from the rafters with care, In hopes that The Wiz would soon be there; The fans were nestled all snug in their seats; With visions of Bills wins, while they munched on their treats. And Mama in her sweatshirt, and I in Bills blue Had just settled in to watch a basket or two. When on the lawn there arose such a clatter, I sprang from my seat to see what was the matter. Away to the window I flew like a flash And then flung open the door, in a very mad dash The moon on the breast of the new fallen snow, Gave the luster of mid-day to objects below; When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,, But a basketball team as quick as reindeer, With a little old driver, so lively and all biz, I knew in a moment it must be The Wiz. More rapid than eagles his coursers they came, And he whistled and shouted and called them by name: Now! Jimerson, now! Yuri 19, now! Hargrove, oh my lord, On! Nesbitt, on! Okoro, on! Thatch, and Ford; To the top of Gate A ! To the top of the wall ! " Now dash away ! Dash away ! Dash away all !" As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly, When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky; So up to the arena top the coursers they flew, With a sleigh load of stats and The Wiz too: And then in a twinkling I heard on the floor The bouncing of b-balls making baskets galore. As I drew in my head, and was turning around, Down Section 103 The Wiz came with a bound: He was dressed all in Bills gear, from his head to his toe, And his clothes were all blue, he was ready to go; A bundle of spreads was flung on his back, And he looked like a peddler just opening his pack: His eyes- how they twinkled ! His dimples: how merry, His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry; His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow, And the beard on his chin was as white as the snow; The stump of a pipe he held tight in his teeth, And the smoke it encircled his head like a wreath. He had a broad face, and a little round belly That shook when he laughed, like a bowl full of jelly: He was chubby and plump, a right jolly old elf, And I laughed when I saw him in spite of myself; A wink of his eye and a twist of his head Soon gave me to know that The Wiz had a spread. He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work, And calculated point spreads, ; then turned with a jerk, And laying his finger aside of his nose And giving a nod,… BAM …up the concourse he rose. He sprang in the Chaifetz , to his team gave a whistle, And away they all flew like the down of a thistle: But I heard him exclaim, as he shouted out clear-- BILLIKENS WILL WIN, IT WILL BE BETTER THIS YEAR To all that follow the Billiken Biz Merry Christmas to all , best wishes from The Wiz
  19. Yes ...as of today....based on what we have done ...what we are projected to do...and what the other 357 other teams have done and are projected to do.
  20. This is a great and comprehensive article on how Covid is affecting and will affect College basketball in the coming months. It also discusses what is being done and what can be done going forward. This is a must read article if you have interest in D1 basketball. The NCAA has had about 60 games cancelled...the A-10 makes up about 1/3 of those cancellations. So we (the A-10 and The Bills) are right in the thick of it. https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/court-report-how-omicron-variant-of-covid-19-could-upend-college-basketball-as-leagues-flip-forfeit-rules/
  21. Now that the Mason game has been cancelled. I can get started on the preconference forecast a little sooner. Speaking of cancelled, the A-10 has had 20 games cancelled so far this year...11% of the season....Day and Rich have both played full schedules...the rest have missed 1-3 games. I still have enough games to make a forecast. We should be up to full data again after the Jan 5th game....assuming no more games are cancelled. + = how many steps a team has improved from preseason.... - = how many steps a team has decreased....up to a 2 step variance is normal ...preconference to season end...1 step is normal....While St B and Rich are currently not in the running they are still close enough with a good run to get back in the race.... The others are deemed too far back at this point to make it. Preseason.............Preconference..........Chance 2 Dance 1...St. B.....A...................SLU...A- (+1)..............55% 2...SLU.....B+.................Dav....B+ (+1).............46% 3...Day......B+.................VCU...B+ (unch)........43% 4...Rich.....B+..................Rich...B+ (unch)....can still improve for C2D 5...VCU.....B+..................St. B...B+ ( -2).......can still improve for C2D 6...Dav......B.....................Day...B ( -1) 7...RI..........B.....................RI......B....unch 8...GM,,,,,,,B-...................GM...B ( +1) 9...Mass....B-....................Mass C+ ( -1) 10...Duq.....C+...................St. J....C+...unch 11...St. J.....C+....................Duq....C ( -1) 12...LaS......C.......................Ford D+ ( +2) 13...GW.......D+.....................GW D+ unch 14...Ford.....D-......................LaS D+ ( -2) No big surprises...all teams fall within the 2 step range....Biggest improvement... though still lacking....Fordham....Biggest disappointment so far...St. B & LaS Here is hoping we play a full conf schedule Go Bills
  22. Call it the Golden Arch Cup and get McDonald's to sponsor it. Free fries to the winner.
  23. Sorry I didn't see your post in time....I had USF by 10..... USF Chance to Dance...53%....does not include the SIU game...but it will not change much with the SF win....USF did what it was supposed to do... Interestingly enough ...I ran some additional numbers ....If USF had played The Bills in Vegas....the game would have been even
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