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The Wiz

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Everything posted by The Wiz

  1. Possibly...it would have eliminated 1 bid stealer and possibly changed the other NET numbers just enough for ISU to get in.. And now the official NCAA statement as to what happened.... in the previous 3 years there have been 2 bid stealers (0.67/yr) ...this year alone there have been 5 ...NCAA translation...just a freak happening.... Plus ISU played a weak OOC schedule...NCAA translation...not our fault, ISU should have scheduled better. Bottom line ...You have a computer system (NET) that is figuring everything in and comes up with an overall rating for ISU of #29 out of 362 teams....yet somehow a miracle happens and #54 UVA gets in...Question....When you look at NET results which is more important ...SOS or the overall rating which takes in SOS plus all the other data and then compares ISU to UVA plus 360 other teams ...the answer seems clear until the humans arrive then the other factors start to plug in...P5 vs mid major....ACC vs MVC...UVA vs ISU. Hello Mid major...I am from the NCAA and I am here to help you....the computer says run.
  2. Some interesting observations by the computer... It thought that Day would be punished for an early exit in the A-10 tourney...didn't happen...it got the 7th seed like the computer had originally projected...Computer says you can't trust humans. As @HoosierPalmentioned above ISU becomes the highest NET team to not make it. Speaking of ISU a few days ago in the Coach search discussion thread , there was a question about whether an ISU coach would be able to make it in the A10. So I ran some simulations which showed ISU would have finished 2nd this year in the A10.... Now that the bracket info has been fed in , the computer shows that the data reason that ISU didn't make it was there were some unexpected teams that did. The computer speculates that the Duq bid was one of those . Finishing out the simulation from above... had ISU been in the A10 they would have won the tourney( beating Duq by 3) and been the auto bid for the Atlantic 10.....Day and ISU would have both been Dancing....Can we use this info in coach recruiting? That was the data side...the human side shows that ISU was snubbed...or as the NCAA would say ....we are here to correct NET oversights ...we "fix" things and make them right.....the computer response to "fixing" things... *^#(*^%)(@#^^?% !!!!
  3. NIT bid chances 1 team...62-74% 2 teams ..41-49% 3 teams ...30% 0 teams...15%
  4. Depends on who the other 3 teams are....follow the money
  5. The NIT percentages listed above are for each team separately ...the chances of those 4 all getting in are only about 16%.
  6. I think the computer's thinking is that if ISU don't get an at large bid they will be in the first 4 out and get an NIT auto bid.
  7. I am showing ISU at 52% C2D....they are truly at the mercy of the Committee ...this is one where Rod Serling will make the decision....which means the NET will not be the final determining factor.....99% NIT A-10... The Dance Dayton...This is one the Committee would like to punish a little...for leaving the A-10 tourney a bit early...78% chance to make it...8-10th seed Cusp...Duq and VCU...game spread is even...winner Dances....loser see below NIT VCU....74% Rich....66% Loy....62% Duq...50% A quick note ...When looking at the NIT, you have to realize this is a consolation tournament for ALL conferences...The Committee first decides who did we snub for the Dance and puts those in...uses a little NET for the next bunch and then "fixes" things for the final few...the ones that should have been deserving.
  8. To your point...take an 8th place team with a 9-9 record...should a team like that be Dancing?...The answer is yes, if the team is Texas...almost a lock to get in. The argument that the NET and the Committee would make is, it is harder to finish 8th in the B12 than to finish 2nd in the A10. This year it worked out pretty nice for the A-10 but most years not so much....btw any extra mid major bids... the Committee will "fix" using the seeding system. And whether people agree with any of this doesn't matter....that is the way the system(computer and people) is set up.
  9. The math is simple...hire the best coach available. Speaking of math...Ind St Chance 2 Dance today 54%...dn 2% from yesterday Speaking of Ind St...here is their report card...please note they have one of the best offenses if not the best offense ITN. ....................Off...................Def PPG.....A+ 8th ITN.............C FG%.....A+ 3rd ITN.............C+ 3P%......A+ 10th ITN...........B- FT%.......A+ 3rd ITN............ Reb........C+...........................A
  10. The computer is rarely wrong....sometimes real life just has to catch up....or as the computer would say...you are not feeding me enough data.
  11. Here is what I have for post season A-10 play NCAA...Day ...76%....8th or 9th seed One of the following will get the auto bid....VCU....25.6%....Duq...25.3%....St. B...24.9%...St. J...24.6% Of note....the chances of picking all 4 under dogs in yesterday's A10 tourney were about 60-1. Also for those tracking Indiana St...they have a 56% chance to get a Dance bid
  12. Yes...I think that was always the plan by the NCAA for the A-10....there is still an outside chance for a 2nd bid....Rich defeats Day in the final game but still a long shot. Btw, in the fantasy game today I have Day over The Bills by 13.
  13. Probably not the best idea. You are forfeiting your spot on the roster and giving up your scholarship... to test the waters. Might be a good idea to check out the new guy and then make a decision.
  14. Thanks... I have one more post to do which will be the 23-24 season wrap...I will do that once the last A-10 team is done playing for the year. In the meantime...here is what post season chances look like for the A-10... NCAA... Day...6-7th seed NIT...Loy ...87% up...Rich...64% dn...UMass...52% dn
  15. I will make this short and sweet. 1 stat and 1 thought. The stat...13-5 TOs...we lost the TO battle again which means auto loss. The thought...I heard the TV announcers say TOs were a problem (not quite right). I heard Ford say at the beginning of the season, we want a target of 10-12 /gm....mission accomplished....11.6....which gives us a C+ ...above average ...good enough to win some games. But the real TO issue was opponent TOs, where we finished 319...F+. We couldn't get teams to turn the ball over and this was the key to our poor defense. No game better exemplifies this than the La Tech game. We gave up 10 TOs...that is a nice number ...that is a grade of A ....BUT in the La Tech we did something that hadn't been done in decades... our opponent had zero TOs. And the good looking 10 TOs turned ugly....fortunately in that case we pulled out a win with sky high shooting (54/56/73) Unfortunately, that strategy of trying to win games that you lose the TO battle didn't work out too well for the whole season. Hopefully, the new guy will put some emphasis on Defense and we will see opponent TOs return to a more normal number. A new beginning...again
  16. Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 7th seed (unch)....NIT chances....Loy...86% up...Rich...68% up...UMass...54% unch Game Preview....We got bombed last time we played Duq...81-66...This should have never happened....We have a much better offense than Duq...even with our poor D we should not have given up 81 pts. If we play the D that we have for the last couple of games , we can win this contest. First, let's start with Grant. He is a good player BUT he had his best game of the A10 season against us. He scored 15 pts over his season average. Hmm...15 ...that sounds familiar ...oh yeah that was the margin of defeat in that last game we played Duq. Stop him and we win. The good news was we won the TO battle BUT we lost the game because we lost both of the categories we needed to win after the TOs...FG%(bad 3 P shooting) and Rebs. The computer found in that last game a few players underperformed their season average....Jimerson needed 5 more pts and 2 more rebs....Hughes needed 3 more pts and 2 more rebs and Medley needed 4 more pts. By making their averages we pick up 15pts when adjusted for a neutral court....again the margin of defeat. Finally, Clark usually has 2-3 steals / game...he had 6 against us ....Who every he is guarding is going to have to protect the ball...6 steals against is not a winning stat. This game is very winnable ...if we make shots (the slash) and don't give up TOs (to Clarke) and play some D on Grant. Let's look at the card.... Report Card.... The Card is down.....1 up ( Def) and 1 down (Off) .................SLU............DUQ................SLU...................DUQ ...........................OFF........................................DEF.......... PPG............B-..................D...................F........................A- FG%...........C+..................D+................D-......................B 3P%...........A-..................C-.................F.........................B FT%...........B+...................C............................. Reb...........D......................C..................C-......................C+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none...FG%.....Def....FG% Down.........Off...3P%......Def...none Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...38th...up Duq Blks...Dixon...54th...dn Stls...Clark...10th...up FT%...Grant ...2nd up Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills... Parker...Quest....3/12...Shoulder Meadows...OFS...3/5...back Curcic...OFS...2/29...Foot Duq.. None Keys to the Game....... Stop Grant...Don't let Clarke steal...make some 3s WWN2D2W...Slash...46/37/75....Here are The Bills that need to have a better game than last time we played Duq ...Jimerson...17Pts 3 reb....Hughes 8pts...3 rebs...Medley 4 pts ...4 rebs.....Hold Grant to 16 pts and don't foul him either...Hold Clark to 2 steals...Hold Duq to 71 pts Bottom line.........Duq is a team that in its last game barely eked out a 2 pt win against a flailing GW. If we can just shoot average and play the same D that we have for the last couple of games we can win this one. Turn Dae Dae into nay nay and we can win win.
  17. A good win....Any win at this point of the season is a good win. We won this game because we did what we were supposed to do. First we look at the TOs...as always. But in this game ...especially ... the lead seemed to hinge on TOs. When we had the lead in TOs we had the lead in the game and when we lost the TO edge we lost the lead. So hear is how that went...We win the TO battle 9 to 11...This eliminates the auto loss. Evening the game up, we then need to win at least 1 of 2 categories...FG% and Rebs...surprise, we win both ...FG% 47.5 to 46.3...Rebs 35 to 33...winning both categories gave us an 80% chance to win the game. Let's look at my pre game posts ...Bolded statements from above... There was talk about making up the 16 pts from Parker. I mentioned that the extra pts and rebounds need to come from Ezewiro and Medley....From above...if they both have just average games, we add 10pts plus 8 rebs. Actual stats... we add an extra 11pts and 14 rebs...a big part of the win. We beat them at their place with a poor defensive game...We should be abled to beat them on a neutral floor. ...We did Bottom line.........Let's get EVEN better...That's what SLU needs to do...A win over the Rams....And we move on to round 2.... we did get EVEN better... It gets tougher now....let's keep it going.
  18. As I pointed out in the opening post of this thread...Ezewiro (injury...7min playing time) and Medley ( 0 pts and 0 rebs)...if they both have just average games, we add 10pts plus 8 rebs. Moving the game to a neutral court pretty much evens out the loss of Parker's 16 pts. I would also like to point out that when we lost Parker at the 10 min spot in the 2nd half of the previous Rhody game , we were trailing in that game by a point. We won that game in the final 10 mins with no Parker OR Ezewiro. As of yesterday...both Parker and Wright (RI) are still listed as questionable. Also the spread is still listed as even. So I beat on the computer and told it to carry it out a couple of places....and it showed Bills by 0.35 pts. And then in its on snarky way (it must get that from me ) says....what part of even do you not understand. I said I understand where the plug is. Its answer...Go Bills.
  19. Post season A-10.....First, let's start with The Bills Chance 2 Dance.....Not probable but here is what it looks like....Wins in order....RI...Duq...Day...Loy...Rich....The computer refers to it as miracle basketball....Here is what the rest of the post season A-10 looks like....NCAA...Day 6th seed (unch)....NIT chances...Loy 80% (up)...Rich 64%(dn)...UMass 54% (new)....The ghost of Juan hovers Game Preview.........The following is from my last RI report a little over a week ago...This coming game might be a future PIG match up. What would you say if I told you we had a chance to play a team that had a bad defense...as bad or worse than ours. They still have a bad defense...but have improved a little since the last time we played them. Their offense is about the same. Meanwhile, our offense has improved since last meeting and our defense is about the same. We need to build on our defensive effort against St. B...no 90, in fact not even 80 pts for them this time. Their main guys are Green (outside) and Kortright & House (closer in). Also ease up on fouling House...He had 11 FTAs last time... Way too many. How can we break the tie/spread? Some easy improvements ...Medley had 0pts and 0 rebs in 19 min last time against RI ( against St. B ...10 rebs-10 assts)...Ezewiro had 6pts & 1 reb in 7 mins We beat them at their place with a poor defensive game...We should be abled to beat them in on a neutral floor. Let's look at the card.... Report Card.... The Card is up.....4 up... 2 Off and 2 Def .................SLU..............RI................SLU......................RI ...........................OFF........................................DEF.......... PPG...........B-................C-..................F........................D- FG%...........C+................B...................F+......................D+ 3P%...........A..................B-...................F......................F+ FT%...........B+.................F-..13th WITN......................... Reb...........D...................B....................C-......................C+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....3P%...Reb......Def...PPG...Reb Down.........Off....none....Def....none Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...42nd ...up RI 3P%...Green....73rd...Dn from last time we played them (15th) Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills... Parker...3/9 ...shoulder...day to day Meadows....2/20...back...out for the season Curcic...2/29...Foot...out for season RI.. Wright...3/9...unknown issue...day to day Bilau...1/18....knee....out indefinitely Keys to the Game.......Make some shots ...especially the bunnies...Play D...beat them on the slash WWN2D2W...Target slash for SLU--50/40/75......Slash for RI...46/35/65....Beat them in TOs...Match them in Rebs...Hold their top 3 scorers to 38 pts Bottom line.........Let's get EVEN better...That's what SLU needs to do...A win over the Rams....And we move on to round 2
  20. We end as we started....with defense. There was only 1 game all season that our opponent's PPG was lower and that was the 1st game of the season... So Ind. ....and of course St. B is a much tougher opponent than SOIN. In addition, we foiled the TO curse...lose the TO battle lose the game. Losing the TO battle usually spells... auto loss (80% chance to lose) How did we pull this off? Let's look at the numbers...Bolded statements from the original post.. First the pregame computer observation....The computer suggests if you are not going to play D then maybe slow the game down to keep it close...By playing D AND slowing it down instead of keeping it close ...we won. Beat them on FG%...We not only beat them on FG% but on the entire slash...keep St B to 33% from the arc...actual 32%...excellent.... St. B is one of the best FT shooting teams ITN...They were 19th ITN...shot 62%....Their report card slash line coming into the game was B / A / A...they shot F /F/ F. Defense...better late then never. Beat them in Rebs...We didn't just beat them in Rebs ...we dominated. ..43-26...great job Keep them under 80 pts...Compared to what we have been doing this would have been a good showing...65 pts is outstanding. I leave you with the wisdom of the bottom line from above.... Bottom line.........Grab a rebound....play some D...make some shots ...and we can beat St. B We did not only what it takes to overcome a TO deficit but did what it takes to beat a good offensive team Keep it up in the Big Apple.
  21. Here is the way The Wiz's winning formula works... 1. Win the TOs...that evens the game up 2. Win one of the following 2 categories....FG% or Rebs and you should win 3. If you lose both categories ...you look at TO opportunity lost as a rare last chance. In this case, we won the TOs but lost both categories which kicks in #3 the final chance which is a rare circumstance but happened in this case. TO opp lost refers to the fact that in addition to the points off TOs which is listed in the stat sheet, there were 6 missed opportunities by VCU. In other words, had VCU not turned it over 6 extra times they would have had a chance for 6 additional shots. VCU shooting 40.4% should have made an additional 2.4 shots....let's round it down to 2 shots and make both of them just 2s... VCU wins by 2 pts without the extra TOs. This is a lot of extra figuring that you would not normally do except in a rare situation...ie win TOs and then lose FG% and rebs. Bottom line....if you win the TO battle it usually evens the game up EXCEPT if you REALLY win the battle...in this case VCU had an extra 55% worth of TOs. Enough extra TOs that step 2 wasn't necessary. As for my computer dreaming...it will not be dreaming of Electric Sheep...It will be dreaming of Electric Rams...apologies to Phillip K. Dick. One last thing in reference to unusual occurrences...VCU had 17 TOs...The Lady Bills scored 17pts on those TOs. Meanwhile the L Bills had 11 TOs and the Lady Rams had 11 pts off those TOs....Extremely rare where the TOs match up exactly with the pts the opp scores for BOTH teams. Good job Bills...keep it going.
  22. Yes...1 pt to St. B to 12. I would normally post the spread thread today after yesterday's St. B game but I had more time yesterday. The other thing that was affected was the post season chances....St. B was removed from the NIT list. Also, Rich was added to the Dance list (50%)...a gut punch to Juan...but Juan is not duan (this can be read as down or done) yet. His motto is... he will ride again. I will check the numbers again on Sat...they won't go up but there is a chance they could drop another point.
  23. I don't usually set things up for betting but I went back and lined up the the games with my spreads. The answer is it depends. If you remember ...at the beginning of the year, I always put a caveat about the first 8 games of the year because this is a period of collecting data and the computer isn't as accurate during data collection. I have even mentioned a few times that if people would bet on games using my spreads(of course nobody here would ever do that) (you know who you are) they should probably skip the first 8 games. So here are the results....Taking the opponent in the first 8 games, you would have won 7 lost 1. In the next 21 games your record would have been 9-10-2. So the simple answer if you waited till the computer was ready in the 9th game you would not have become a wealthy man. Should you bet the first 8 games next year ...7-1 sounds good? Probably not ...because there will still be the issue of a small data size and it could turn out to be 1-7 next year. Hope that answers your question
  24. I look at the spread a little different than most fans. To me the spread is a diagnostic tool. Each game the computer takes all the data and analyzes it and says ..this is what the Bills are supposed to do. If they come within a few points of the spread , they are doing what they are supposed to be doing. If like last night, they underperform, it could mean they had an off night or the other team had an above average game. If it happens over a series of games, then it is a trend and you need to take action/ change things up. If it happens over a season, then it shows there are some serious issues and major changes are needed. Using the computer as a diagnostic tool it is supposed to keep humans out of the insanity loop...where you keep doing the same thing and hoping for different results. I laugh when every year as soon as there is a miss by the computer on a game, posters come on the board and say fire the computer or it doesn't know what it is doing. If the computer forecast that flipping a coin 10 times would come out as 5 heads and 5 tails and the result was 10 heads...there would be an outcry on the board (and you know who the posters would be)..."get rid of the computer ". The computer points out the problem....It is up to the humans to figure out what changes need to made. Don't kill the messenger/computer ...fix the issues.
  25. You would be sent to the portal and left with nil.
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