The Wiz

To win the national championship according to the Sports Book Other A-10 teams........ Butler.....60-1 VCU......100-1 Temple...125-1 Dayton....125-1 St. Joe....250-1 X.............250-1 Don't think I agree with Butler as having the better chance especually over VCU. If those numbers stay that way it might be a chance for someone to make some money on a VCU/ Butler matchup if Butler is favored..

I don't think SC is a bad loss. In fact, I have SC and NM as B+ teams right now. Our weakest loss is Washington...a B- ...hardly a bad loss. That is why we have a good ranking and good numbers. The teams we have lost to are doing pretty well which helps us.

i like it.

VCU did play lackluster. I had VCU by 13 over Leigh so a win by 4 hurt their numbers...but they are still at A+. And Leigh is a good team at B+. If you look at the post above yours in this thread I mention Butler losing to VCU by 13 if played today. Leigh is similar to Butler and they played at VCU...so it is not an accident that 13 shows up again.

With all the conference talk and new transfer rules...almost forgot there was a season...lol UMass is a C+ team. We will have to step it up a notch from the Sav St. game to beat them. I think we will as this is the first conference game and we play better against better competition. UMass is shooting about 30% from the arc with about 24 shots a game. I would like to see us hold them to under 20 shots and 25% or less shooting % from the arc. Looks like a great chance for #8.

If the deal can be expanded to $550MM (an extra $50MM) then there is enough for 12 teams at $2.22MM. If the minimum drops to $2MM/yr/school...then they can do it for $540MM. $2MM is 5 times what we are getting now as long as you can get by the inequity of the BE-7 getting more than twice the amount. It would not seem good for the long term to have that inequity.

the A-10 just signed a multi-year t.v. deal that pays the teams in the conference $400k per year. Not sure how we could be expected to break that new contract?!? The problem with the A-10 isn't the teams at the top, its the teams at the bottom. Always has been and always will be. Any comparison of the BE7 to the A-10 can't just focus on the top teams in the A-10 it needs to focus on ALL of the teams in the A-10. Hmmm...Maybe the A-10 needs to take the top 9 teams plus Creighton and start their own league (or renegotiate that current contract)

It is a big difference between VCU and the B+'s. Fortunately, we only play them at the Fetz which will eat into their advantage. If the Feb 19 game were played today...VCU by 4. We have 6 weeks to get better and close the gap, a small one at that. If we play like we did against New Mex...we win. As for away, let's look at the Butler game. They are very close to the Bills numbers wise. On Mar 2 they have a game @ VCU. If that game were held today VCU by 13. As for a neutral site, VCU would be an average of 8-10 pts better than the B+ teams....and that is a lot. So the answer is yes... VCU is that good.

Since there has been a lot of talk about who is better...the A-10 or the BE-7 I thought I would combine them using my rankings and take a look. These are using today's numbers and of course the indented teams are BE-7 VCU SLU ...........GT But St. Joe ...........Marq Day Temp La S ...........Set H Rich ...........Prov Char X ...........St. John ...........DeP ...........Vill For those with inquiring minds ....Creighton would fit in between VCU & SLU. If you look at my post above about how the cash will be divided in the BE-7, it seems like it would be best for the A-10 to stay together and try to get the same deal since our conference seems at least as good. There are 2 networks bidding on the BE-7...Fox 1 & NBC SP... If the losing network offers $500MM to the A-10 over 12 yrs...That is $41.66MM/yr div by 16 teams...works out to $2.8MM/school/yr a better deal than the BE-7 leftovers.

Of course the deal is still being worked on but here is how the numbers work. 12 year deal @ $5MM/school = $420MM....leaves $80MM $80MM divided by 12 yrs = $6.66MM. If you have 3 schools that equals $2.22 MM....5 schools would be $1.35MM....It is being reported that the remaining schools would receive around $2.5 MM ...Therefore the $2.22MM number is the one if you do the math. So for those following along....the new league will take 3 teams as the deal now stands.

A+ = 16 I think VCU is under rated in that they are an elite team not rated in either poll...Over rated or under rated??? I guess we will see.

X loss was damaging...enough to knock them down to B+. A win over St. Joe in their first conf game would put them back at A-. Timing is everything. Butler would beat XU by 20 today. They played the game at X...if they had a rematch today at X ...it would be Butler by 1...The problem was Butler lost by 15...a damaging loss even for an away game.

Agreed...hopefully we could grab a few gems from lower schools or maybe take back some local kids who didn't work out at the out of town "super school" but overall it would be bad for us.

X loss was damaging...enough to knock them down to B+. A win over St. Joe in their first conf game would put them back at A-.

Here is my pre-season A-10 report card... A+......VCU B+......The Bills ........Butler ........St. Joe ........Day ........Temp ........LaS B.......Rich B-......Char ........X ........St. B C+......GW ........UMass C-......Rh Is D+......Duq D-......Ford Some observations.... These are pre-season and will change as we move into the season. The deeper we are into the season the more difficult it will be to move. I have tried to arrange teams within the same category in order of strength. But generally if you are in the same category the diference between teams is insignificant. The Sav St hurt our numbers just enough to knock us back to B+ The A-10 is a good quality top heavy league If you want to consider B- honor roll then we have only 5 teams that didn't make it. With a "little study" 2 more teams could make the grade. Fordham has improved some but they are still a major drag on the conference. Assuming SLU holds their grade ...Feb 19 & 22 will be a chance to make big inroads with back to back games against VCU(home) and Butler(away) Our toughest game in the next few weeks will be Temple Overall, we are about where we were last season at this time. Last season we got better as conference play proceeded. It was late in Jan that I saw us become an elite team. Hopefully we gel and the same thing happens this year. Go Bills

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=cbssports%20basketball%20transfers&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CEMQqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbssports.com%2Fcollegebasketball%2Fblog%2Feye-on-college-basketball%2F21494783%2Fwhywhen-a-new-transfer-rule-could-have-big-effects-on-college-hoops&ei=rEvoUPm1I468qQHu1oCgAQ&usg=AFQjCNF1nTR6NNsTiaCcppEOmlGUGgRQaA The ability to transfer with no waiting period will have a major impact on college programs including SLU. It essentially opens up free agency. This will be an interesting and important development to follow.

I think the lack of def focus/intensity is a combination of playing a lesser team after beating a ranked team....exactly what happened to New Mex. The difference was we held it together and won. That is why this was a good win.

This is what a D+ team looks like when it plays at its best. The great D was no surprise but they shot way over their head...49% vs a normal 38%. Of course, the stat I like to look at is opponent 3pt shooting % ....only 20%... low even for them ...ave 25%. You could argue they only shot 5 times...even better...good 3 pt D keeps you from even taking the shot. Random thoughts... We seem to play to the level of our competition. Contrary to what many think this was a good win...When the other team is hot and you are not having your best game, you have to find a way to win. We did and that makes it a good win...not a pretty win...but a good win. The 8 point win while short of the spread won't hurt our numbers . After you pass 12 points it is marginal help. A 1 or 2 point win would have done some damage. It was disturbing to hear Crews say we weren't prepared for the defenses they threw at us. Said he hadn't schooled the team on them and it was his fault. Nice that he manned up and took responsibility but still disturbing we weren't ready. Better be ready next time as UMass will come at us the same way. Overall, this was what it was supposed to be ...a tune up game...turns out it was a tough one but some good may come of it if we come out ready against a defensive UMass team.

The issue in beating them by more than 18 will be the pace of the game. They are one of the slowest teams in the country. Beating them by 18 would be like beating a normal team by 25-30. +1

So MB, where is that Vegas line that that you say I am always copying...Oops no Vegas line. And now you know one of the reasons I have this system. Vegas doesn't have a line on many of our games. You must have been pretty desperate to use a system for comparison that has Kansas as the best team in the country. Hmmm....Kansas over Duke?????....You must be a closet Jayhawk fan. I think I will keep my system.

Savannah St is one of the best teams in the MEAC. Unfortunately, the MEAC is one of the worst conferences. As a result, SS is only a D+ team. Therefore, as an A- team we should handle them readily. This will give KM another game to get back into form and should be a nice tune up game for conference play. This should be 8 in a row.

But even Wiz's computer model is probably undervaluing us at the moment. Actually. right now I have the Bills at 41 a good solid A-. Under rated??? I think we are fairly rated at this time. Towards the beginning of the season I had us at about 45-50....some good wins and some painful losses and we have moved up a bit. I see no reason we can not continue to improve. With KM getting back to form and the Bills "learning" Crews good things are on the horizon. After the Savannah game, I will do an A-10 preview. For those wanting a sneak peek, I have the Bills at #2 in the conference (behind VCU) and dancing. I see the key to the season as the 2 game set on Feb19 (VCU here) followed by Feb 22(Butler there). A sweep and you are talking about a high seed.

I checked the numbers again and I would say Cincy is a legit team. I don't agree with the polls often but at 15 they are fairly ranked. It looks to me like Cincy just had an off night.

+1

Very nice win... and a spread of 14 is great. It is the maximum number that gives us the biggest boost. After 14 it is the law of diminishing returns. Interestingly, New Mexico stays at A-.....we are a "good" loss for them. We are 4 points better than the Lobos. The psychological factors that I mentioned in an earlier post (letdown from beating a top 10 team and being reranked, followed by playing an unranked OOC team during a long road trip) were good for an additional 10 points. And while you can't figure it into the calculations (contrary to what some may think) it is not a surprise for us to win big. As I pointed out to the Lobo, they will use this loss as an excuse if they do poorly in their conference (I currently have them 5th) Now another warm up game before conference play and we should be in good shape going into the season. I will do a conference preview after the Savannah game. Go Bills