Conference RPI: Bad Losses

[mystery_man]

I just posted this on the A-10 board and thought it may be of interest here as well.

Per Blue Dog in another thread:

"Ok if the 2 above games were road games I have us at 38-19 overall, 23-4 at home, 6-10 on the road and 9-5 neutral."

Seeing that as a whole we seem to be doing a good job of protecting the home court, I thought it would be interesting to look back at all the losses to this point and determine the number of "bad losses." Obviously its too early in the season for the RPI to mean much of anything, but I figure as a general rule a loss should not be categorized as bad if it is: 1) on the road to a respectable team, 2) to a team from a power conference (whose SOS, and hence 25 percent of our RPI for playing them, will be very high), or 3) to a team from a smaller conference who is expected to be among the top of their respected leagues (as 50% of the RPI is our opponents direct winning %).

Team by team our losses to this point in the season are as follows, with conference affiliation in parentheses:

Charlotte (2-2): N. TX (Sun Belt), @ Syracuse (B.E.)

Dayton (4-1): @ S. Methodist (CUSA)

Duquense (2-3): N. Ill (Mid Am.), Oakland (Mid Cont.), @ N. Ill. (Mid Am.)

Fordham (1-2): Semi-Away Tenn (SEC), Semi-Away Belmont (Atl. Sun)

George Washington (4-0): Undefeated! Keep up the good work!

Lasalle (3-0): Undefeated! Keep up the good work!

Massachuesetts (5-1): @ Pitt (B.E.)

Rhode Island (1-3): Houston (CUSA), Neutral Troy (Sun Belt), @ B.C. (B.E.)

Richmond (3-1): @ Old Dominion (Colonial)

Saint Bonaventure (3-2): Neutral Chi. St. (No Conference), @ St. Francis PA (N.E.)

Saint Josephs (3-1): @ Penn St. (Big 10)

Saint Louis (3-1): @ Tx. A&M (Big 12)

Temple (0-1): @ Kent St. (MAC)

Xavier (4-1): Neutral Alabama (SEC)

So of the 19 losses to this point 10 were away games, 5 were neutral court losses (2 of which Pomeroy has as semi-away- no clue what that means), 9 were to teams from what I would classify as power conferences of which 8 were neutral or away (1 to the Big 10, 1 to the Big 12, 3 to the Big East, 2 to CUSA, 2 to the SEC), and 4 were to teams from smaller conference that I expect to do very well in their leagues (2 to N. Ill., 1 to Oakland, and 1 to Old Dominion). Note that I included CUSA as a power conference because I expect them to carry a very good OOC win % and not neccesarily because they will place a lot of teams in the tourney.

This finally brings me back to my original point. Of the 19 losses the conference now has I would only classify 6, Charlotte's loss to N. Tx. at home, Fordham's semi-away loss to Belmont, Rhode Island's neutral court loss to Troy, St. Bonaventure's neutral court loss to Chi. St. and loss on the road to St. Francis PA, and Temple's loss @ Kent St., as bad losses. Note that only one of those losses came at home making even these more tolerable, and honestlt any of the above teams may be pretty good as I am not familiar with them.

If I am correct this means that 13 of our 19 losses should be buffered when it comes to RPI calculations. Based on this data I would think that once conference play begins we'll see a slow rise in our SOS as many of our losses will turn out to be less damaging.

Of course the caliber of the teams we're beating is a whole other issue and one that I don't have time to analyze.

Please feel free to comment or to update this thread throughout the season as I know that I will not have the time to do so.

[cheeseman]

Without posting all kinds of Stats - I am wondering what you are basising your high opinion of CUSA getting all these NCAA tourney berths on. Besides Memphis and maybe Houston who else are you touting?

[kshoe]

Mysteryman said he doesn't expect CUSA to get many NCAA teams.

"Note that I included CUSA as a power conference because I expect them to carry a very good OOC win % and not neccesarily because they will place a lot of teams in the tourney."

While I find Mystery_Man's analysis interesting the part of the analysis that seems to be missing is the "good wins" category. Its one thing to say the conference has not lost a ton of bad games but unless we get a few good wins to supplement the bad losses then all we have proven is we can beat the bad teams at home.

Wins like the one Dayton had vs. Louisville on Friday night are great but where are the wins like Missouri St. and Wichita St. had over the weekend (top 10 teams on neutral courts). Those are the wins that you can hang your hat on.

[cheeseman]

Sorry - I guess I misread. Thanks for setting me straight.