Interesting Day In A10 ...

[RS]

>Admitedly my Xavier argument is weak, but with Hobbs'

>schedules, the losses to teams like Xavier come under a

>magnifying glass. Outside of the BB&T, he lost to Wake and

>WVU (admitedly both on the road) last year and NC State this

>year. He has no other top 50 RPI wins to speak of in this 2

>year run.

>

First of all, you refer to this two year run. I guess you mean last season plus the first 10 games of this year, not two full years. You seemed to have forgotten beating St. Joe's in the A10 final last year, beating Temple four straight times (2 of them in Philadelphia), and if you go back to the prior season beating Xavier who made it to the final 8 that year and winning at Charlotte that year.

[SluSignGuy]

In my two year run, I was considering this year and last.

I am not going to give the win over St. Joe's "Quality Win" status because the NCAA committee doesn't, and St. Joes gave us a whooping the week before at the Smith Center. I was at the A-10 Tourney Finals, and it was a hard fought game, but St. Joes 2004-05 was Not St. Joes 2003-04. And both teams knew that game was their only shot to get a Dance birth. It was a good game, and thankfully the better team won. St. Joes may have gone to Madison Square Garden, but I was happy we were in Nashville.

I would also like to note that losing to Xavier twice had some significance in 04-05. GW and Xavier had comparable RPIs in Febuary, and if the committee were to pick one, you pick the team that had won head to head TWICE, which was Xavier. Admitedly Xavier's RPI dropped, especially after losing to La Salle. However, you can't afford to lose to a team twice in a season unless they are definitely better than you.

As for your discussion of the 2003-04 season. Yes, it is good to beat Temple on the road and at home, but they aren't exactly the John Chaney teams of old. In 2003-04, Temple lost to the powerhouses known as Arizona St., Miami (before they hit the ACC and got good), and UMass (UMass won once, then took GW to Double OT on Temple's floor).

I must admit, overall I was very impressed with GW and Hobbs in 2003-04. We did beat the elite 8 Xavier team at home, but when we went on the road they paid us back quite nicely. What would have been really nice if if we could have won on Senior night that year. But, getting an NIT bid with that team was very good. Last year, we shouldn't have been in the position to have to fight for our NCAA birth, but we made it.

What I hate is that we may have to fight this year. If GW plows through the A-10 like they should. Then I will shut up and say alright, I am an idiot. However, I don't know if I have the faith in GW to go through the A-10 with only 1 or 2 losses. I don't have a time machine with the RPI, but our SOS may bite us hard come March if GW doesn't perform the way they should. There are just too many times when GW comes out, plays streetball and not smart that it will catch up to them.

[RS]

Who said or realistically thinks GW is only gone to lose 1 or 2 games in the league this year?? Even before the season started it was and still is likely they be considered underdogs at Charlotte, at Xavier, and at St. Joes, and will probably lose at least one home game. The A10 tourney though will come down to GW, X and Charlotte. St. Joes relies too much on 3 point shooting and you can't win three games on 3 consecutive days like that because their legs won't hold up to allow them to shoot well enough by the third game.

[SluSignGuy]

I did not mean to imply that you or anyone else said GW will only lose one or two games in conference.

I think they may be limitted to losing that many games. Meaning, I think they may not be able to have more than 2 losses in Conference and still make the tournament. Right now our RPI ranking (Using KenPom) is 77 and SOS is 284. A-10 Conference play will help some but not a lot. We are helped that we play RPI leading St. Joes twice. But we also play Richmond twice, who only are ahead of the Bonnies and Duquesne. GW needs to get their RPI in the Top 40 to be a lock for the Tournament. Being a bubble team won't help much with only 1 Top 50 Win (and 1 Top 50 loss) in Non-Conference.

If GW were to go 25-3 this season, with their current SOS. Their RPI would be .5550. NC State, the last year in the Tournament last year, had an RPI of .5585 (Higher is better with ratings). And remember, they get the Advantage of ACC Bias, plus they beat GTech and Maryland Twice Each. If GW were to go 2-1 in the Conf. Tournament, they would be 27-4, and their RPI would drop to .5496. Remember, our winning percentage is an astronomical .901. Tack 3 losses in 19 games (lose in the finals of the A-10) on there, it drops to .870. That drop may seem like nothing, but our Winning Percentage is the only thing keeping GW's RPI respectable.

If we generously gave GW the 200th best schedule instead of the 284th, their RPI ranking as a 27-4 team would only jump to the 40s (using 2005's end RPI ratings). I don't know how to project what GW's SOS will be after the A-10. However the A-10 is 8th in the RPI rankings, and 12th in the SOS, which doesn't mean Conference will will necessarily help GW as much as it may need.

Am I an expert at the RPI formula and projections: No. I just plugged some Data into an excel spreadsheet. However, GW may not be able to afford many losses in Conference play to still get an at large bid. However, I admit, it would be tough as nails to keep a team with 27 wins out of the tourney (as my scenario suggests).