kwyjibo Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 All these numbers are derived from the 10,000 simulations run each week at RPIforecast.com. SLU's chances of winning the A10 tournament and going to NCAA are %0.36% (1 in 278)! Here are some relevant possible records for finishing the regular season and competing in the A10 tourney (I am expressing our chances as ---> reg season record in last 3 games/record in AC): We have a 1% chance of finishing under 85 RPI and getting our pick of CBI/NIT. This can happen with 3-0/3-1, 3-0/2-1, or 2-1/3-1 finishes. We have a 1.5% chance of finishing 85-95 in RPI and likely getting into CBI/NIT. This can happen with 3-0/1-1 or 2-1/2-1 finishes. We have a 2.4% chance of finishing 95-100 in RPI and could get into the CBI/NIT. This can happen with 3-0/0-1 or 1-2/3-1 finishes. We have a 6.6% chance of finishing at 103 in RPI with a 2-1/1-1 finish. This is obviously the most doable scenario for a chance at the post-season but it means finishing 2-1/1-1. The key here is that finishing 2-1 is more important than a long run in AC. A 1-2/2-1 finish (5.5% likely) puts SLU at 109 RPI and somebody at the NIT or CBI will really want to have SLU involved for that to be enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 You are your FREAKIN' numbers! I enjoy the head spin. Are you and the wife journeying to the beach in two weeks? Know whether to look for you or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Whoops. Read the other thread. never mind and see you there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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