Jump to content

Fraz

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    955

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Fraz

    The Wiz's Post "Covid Rust" Forecast.

    in Billikens.com Main Board

    Posted

    5 hours ago, slufanskip said:

    Am I the only one who says my "eye test" says we still aren't quite where we were pre Covid? 

    I like how the ball is moving and how we’re defending.  There’s been less hero ball and way more distribution which is key.  Shooting % and rebounding are down which were the 2 biggest strengths pre-shutdown.  

    Around the A10 20-21 season

    in Billikens.com Main Board

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Cowboy said:

    -Mad Ants, that's a nice one!

    -when we go to SVU I suggest putting Fred on Crutcher and being very physical with him and seeing if Jalen will play through it, nothing ticky tak or dirty, hard basketball plays

    20 minutes of Goodwin and 20 minutes of FTJ.. give him multiple looks and hope he misses 

    The Wiz's Post "Covid Rust" Forecast.

    in Billikens.com Main Board

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

    I was going to include this info as part of the LaS spread thread but decided it would make that post too long plus this deserved its own thread.

    For those who have been following the "rust " charts in the last few weeks...those culminated last night with the win over Fham.  I feel comfortable at this point in saying we are back.

    We Are Back

    What does this mean?  Does this mean we are where we were just before Covid hit.  No it means , based on the numbers we should be free of the effects of Covid going forward.  Let's use this analogy...Suppose you are a 1 mile runner.  When you start your training  you are at a 6 minute mile. Your goal is to try and do a 4 minute mile. After a couple of  months of training plus a few track meets you are down to 5 min. Things are looking pretty good and then you go down with Covid for a month.  When you come back after Covid  your 1st run is 8 min...not good. You are  clear of disease but not feeling like your old self .  The first week back you lose to some weaker runners but continue to come back. After 3 weeks, you feel like your old self and you come in at a 5:30  mile...not where  you were when the Covid hit you but better than the start of the season.  The downgrade in performance  at this point is no longer the lingering effects of Covid but more a factor of getting into championship mode. 

    That is where the Bills are today....The win over Fham signaled the end of the Covid rust phase. We are not back to opening day....but neither are we back to Xmas  eve...the day after our last prepause game...KC..  According to my calculations,  we are now at the equivalent of Dec 9th after the Cen Ark game ...We were 6-0...2 weeks into the season and reached an A- level.  We are at A- now.

    What Happened After The Pause.

    First,  let's look at my preconference forecast dated 1/24/21.  In that thread , I examined what kind of damage Covid had caused the team. It would be based on that first game back with Dayton.  Based on the numbers, it looked to me like we had suffered medium damage and it would take us 5 games to recover.  I then monitored it from game to game.  The 5 games wasn't set in stone...it was a forecast based on a projected recovery. As it turns out , it was on target. We checked off the boxes as went and yesterday's game with Fham was the 5th game ...and ....we are back.

    What Does This Mean Going Forward

    Does this mean we can't  lose going forward? No, it means if we lose going forward , you will have to find something other than Covid to blame it on.  I look at yesterday's game at Fham as the start of the new season. An easy opener against a bottom feeder. (D-  team) The game against LaS  will be more difficult.  And games will continue to ramp up through the Rich game.  While this is not what we planned for....this is setting up nicely going forward.

     I think we can get back to being an A team as soon as the next 2 games. And then we need to try and reach our potential ...which is an A+ team.  Can we do it?  I think so as long as stay  healthy and relatively injury free. One thing to watch and keep track of will be the spreads....we want at a minimum  to keep making or best case exceeding the spread.  If we do that , we will be on our way.

    Stay tuned for the LaS spread thread coming later today...it will be a doozie.

    Go Bills.

     

    Thanks for this Wiz.  Like most of the board I’ve followed your forecasts for years, and even more so this year with Covid.

    We are the best team in this conference.  With the Covid rust gone I love our chances of making a run.

    2020-2021 NCAA Net Rankings

    in Billikens.com Main Board

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

    In addition, VCU at 32 and St. B at 41.  If today was SS, A10 should get in all three.  The Spiders at 54 are within sight of the bubble, but have work to do to get on it. 

    But a L O N G way to go.

    Mizzou right behind us at 36 after two tough losses this week.. NCST slipping too down to 100 

    The Bills over Fham by 16

    in Billikens.com Main Board

    Posted

    5 hours ago, The Wiz said:

    A nice win. We did what we were supposed to do. 

    Bolded print from original post. 

    no 3 pt shooters of any consequence...good time to work on  that 3P defense. ....True and we did...Fham 3P%...17%...check

    They have 3 scorers...Sorriano, Austin and Colon...hold these guys to 35pts combined....Colon didn't play but subbing in their next highest scorer...total pts...27...Check

     Sorriano is a reb machine ...hold him to 7 rebs   ..6 rebs...check

    just make some shots. ...we did ...not a great night shooting but good enough...we won the slash...Bills...41/27/ 63  vs Fham  28/17/60

    We didn't have a great night shooting last time either (RI) ...BUT ...we had a great stat that carried the day ...TOs.  While TOs were up a little with this game  (9)...it was still a great number.   But a non event as the Rams also had 9 and both teams wound up scoring 8 pts off TOs.  But like last game, there was 1 stat that made all the difference.  In this game, it was all about the rebounding.  The Bills had 55 rebounds....29 more than Fham..  The Bills had 19pts on 2nd chances vs 2 pts for the Rams....17 extra points was the game changer.

    And finally...

    Do we have this game?....Yes. ....check....IF.. we show up in mind, body and spirit. ...checkmate

     

     

    Wiz, according to your “rust” stat we are back correct? A win by 12+ said we are in your original post.

    Is this now the pre-Covid Billikens?

×
×
  • Create New...