The Wiz

He got off to a good start and then became hypnotized by the crowd, lights and noise and froze....just staring at the crowd. He did win for cutest baby. Larry Hughes Sr came over to him after the race and said that was my number ( the Bills onesie he was wearing had Hughes old number on it)...He took pix with Hughes and The Billiken. He also went over to the broadcast table and high fived Rammer and Earl. I would say he had a pretty good time plus he is undefeated as a Bills fan.

Thanks...30 years of being a season ticket holder and Bills Club member...also had a baby race entrant...Little Wiz

This game made me go ...hmmm With 0.7 sec left in the game ...Bills by 3...and Bills ball....I am thinking I have nailed the spread. GW's only chance to tie the game is to steal the inbounds pass. If they don't ...game is over. If they foul...game is over even we miss the FTs , the ball is at the other end of the court with GW having no chance to win. So the strategy is to steal ...no foul...and yet they foul ...BEFORE the ball is thrown in and they pick out The Bills best FT shooter to foul...they could fouled anybody but they fouled Jimerson our best FT shooter BEFORE the clock started, assuring a loss. It didn't make sense to me. And then I remembered....The Vegas spread was 4.5 pts. Jimerson sinks 2 and The Bills win by 5 with the clock running out. It was like a message was being sent from Nevada...You may have the better computer but we make the rules...And what are the rules? Rule number 1...Vegas rules. I am sure the above paragraph is just a giant coincidence...but it still makes you pause and go...hmmm. In any case , a good win for the Bills....any win for The Bills at this point is a good win. This game answered the predicted question for 2 of the worst defenses in D1....What happens when 2 teams play no defense...186 pts are scored in a close game. I think the deciding factor in this game was...wait for it...TOs. This is like a horror movie...The Return of the Turnover. This time there was a happy ending as we beat them 10-7 in TOs. And if anyone still has a doubt that TOs are a major factor in Bills games...the computer shows that had the Bills given up 4 more TOs there would have been a 9 pt swing in the game. This should have been an easy win ...ie an even bigger spread as GW was missing 2 key starters...their 2nd and 3rd scorers. But that was canceled out when Parker turned up lame today and was scratched. Officially listed as a leg injury and questionable for the Richmond game on the 28th. Overall...a nice balanced scoring attack with 6 players in double figures (and one with 9)...we beat the slash which is always a good sign...51/50/82...This was a RM target slash... 180+. Bottom line.... Things could be worse, we could be GW who has just lost 10 in a row and has given up more points than we have in the last 10 games. When you are at the bottom there is no where to go but up. And finally, I will close with a familiar statement....if we keep the TOs even there is no team we can't beat on our schedule going forward.

Here is an injury update... On the original report up top, there were some conflicting injury reports. The air has cleared and this is how they now line up. SLU...Meadows has been downgraded from Questionable to Out Indefinitely ...Back injury GW...2 starters for GW now officially listed as Questionable for our game....Buchanan(2nd leading scorer) and Johnson(3rd leading scorer) ...Buchanan listed as unknown issue....Johnson listed as unknown ailment....If 1 or both are missing, it will be a significant blow to GW and could increase the spread in favor of The Bills.

Here is a write up I did about a month ago...To update...ISU is now 23-5 and 14-3 in conf (tied with Drake for 1st)...For those interested in the Drake coach, please note that ISU beat Drake. Below is an article on Josh Schertz...Indiana St coach . He has been a coach for 16 years. He took over ISU 3 yrs ago. They had 11 wins his 1st year...23 wins last year and this year 18-3 (9-1 MVC) with 10 games to go plus MVC tourney. They are in 1st place in MVC and have a 76% chance to Dance. He spent 13 years at Div 2 all at 1 school ...LMU. He went to 10 NCAA tournaments in 13 years...His win percentage ... .831. But when you click on the link below ...read what other college coaches have to say about him. Here are the important numbers...He just signed a 5 year contract before this season . He makes $365,000/yr...His buyout is $250,000. Now before some of you pooh pooh ISU and the MVC, remember that if The Bills were playing in the MVC this year we would be ranked 11th out of 12 teams with a coach who was making nearly 7 times the amount that Schertz is making. He can coach , do X's & O's , recruit , is good not only on the court but off the court and is a stand up guy. We could double his salary and still have $1.8 million left for NIL. Read the article below and discuss.... https://gosycamores.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/coaches/josh-schertz/875

The computer has already reviewed the situation ..... It selects....Schertz He checks all the boxes.

Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 6th seed (dn)....NIT chances.......Rich...68%(up).....Loy...64%(up)...UMass...54% (new) General Outlook........We remain at C-...we may have bottomed out in this area. For comparison purposes we are substantially better than the worst Bills team of the 21st century ...the 2014-15 team which was a D- overall. On the larger scale we are a slightly below average D1 team, which is good enough to make us a bottom feeder in the A-10. The A-10 is about the same as it always has been ....relatively speaking. Now while this A10 might not be able to beat A10s from earlier years....overall they rank about 8th among conferences. This is because of parity....D1 basketball teams in general are not as good as past years. Talent has been spread out among more teams. The best now are not as good as the best from years ago. And the worst have become better. And therein lies one of the Bills problems...we have moved sideways while the bottom has come up and surpassed us in the A-10. In 2019-20 the A10 had 3 D teams...now the lowest is C- (SLU). In that same season there were 3 teams vying for The Dance....Today only 1. The good news is that parity will make it easier for the Bills to catch up in future years. But they first have to figure out how things work in the new world....which is the real problem now. Let's take a look at the game Game Preview....Ah yes, finally a positive spread. This doesn't mean this game is in the bag. GW( grade C) is kind of a mirror team of the Bills...a so so offense and a poor defense. TOs are about equal ...rebounding is close too. As you all know generating opponent TOs has been a problem for The Bills. But in the last few games we have doubled the TO rate for opposing teams to 13. Meanwhile GW has dropped sharply in creating TOs to 6. If that trend continues we could see a bigger spread for The Bills. In addition , there are some conflicting reports on the injury front. On the Bills side, one report says Meadows may get some playing time ...another says he is out indefinitely....If he does play it would be limited time. On the GW side, there is a report that 2 starters (Johnson and Buchanan) are questionable for Sat., while another report says probable. The computer is assuming they will play. If they are missing from the Sat game or have limited time that would be a blow to GW. The Bills should win this one if they keep TOs under control and avoid a bad shooting night. Let's look at the card.... Report Card.... The Card is down.....2 down (1 Off & 1 Def) .................SLU............GW................SLU...................GW ...........................OFF........................................DEF.......... PPG............C..................B+...................F........................F FG%...........C..................D+...................D.......................B- 3P%...........B+.................B....................D........................D+ FT%...........B...................B+............................. Reb...........D...................B....................D+......................F+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none.....Def...none Down.........Off....3P%......Def....FG% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...53rd...up GW Blks....Akingbola...5th Asts...Bishop....94th MPG.....".....".....84th FT%....Edwards...39th & Johnson ...88th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills... None reported...see game preview above GW.. None...see game preview above Keys to the Game.......Stop Bishop ...he is their shooter ...inside and out.....Don't try to shoot over Akingbola ...he is their fly swatter....we need to make the slash...try not to foul Edwards and Johnson...easy GW pts WWN2D2W...Target slash--46/38/75.....Match them in TOs and Rebs....Hold their top 2 scorers to under 30 combined Bottom line.........A win for The Bills would be Revolutionary.

Another painful loss. Let's start with The Wiz's TO formula....For those who haven't been paying attention, it says if we lose the TO battle we lose the game about 80% of the time...no other stats necessary. One of the few pieces of good news in this game is we won the TO battle. Again if you have been following the formula, winning the TO battle doesn't mean you win the game...it just means you have escaped an automatic loss.....In other words once you tie or win the TO battle you have a 50-50 chance of winning the game. The tie breaker is you have to then win 1 of 2 stats to win the game....FG% or Rebs. Unfortunately for The Bills, the formula worked again. We lost both stats...FG%...SLU 41%....Duq 51% and Rebs...SLU...29....Duq...34..... So no surprises for the computer... A few other random numbers and tidbits. From the original post in this thread, you can see that Duq doesn't have as good an offense as we do and that given a normal game we should be able to sweep the slash line. Instead Duq sweeps us....The Bills 41/28/73...Duq...51/35/84. The other number that jumps out is scoring defense...if you have been following the report cards you will note we are down to F in opp PPG. In the last 4 games we are at F- giving up nearly 87 pts /gm. (8th worst ITN). Even in the LaS win the Explorers scored an unacceptable 84 pts. The strategy of trying to win by out scoring the opponent without playing defense usually does not work because either you go cold or the opponent gets hot. And remember, if you are not playing defense even the bad offenses can score off of you. Lastly, I heard the Coach say in the pregame that the team had spent 95% of the practice time practicing defense. Giving up 80+ PPG is not a winning strategy. Teams with worse offenses than ours...Duq, VCU, St. J and LaS (our last 4 games) all scored 80+ pts. We need to try something different.

I didn't say it would be easy. On the other hand half of the remaining 6 games will be against PIG teams. RI and Duq are tied for the last PIG pen spot. Unlikely that they or GW will run the table. Two of the other 3 games will be at the Fetz...so they will be close games. In any case, to have any more wins, The Bills will need to step up their game. The clock is ticking.....

You are correct ...there are 6 teams now in the enlarged PIG pen....But, in the end it doesn't change things much. With the RI loss today and a win over Duq on Tues , the Bills would be 2 1/2 out.

The Rebs are an important stat....I am showing Duq by 2 on Rebs....In the last 2 games Ez has had 3 and 4 rebs....If he can get back to his average of 6 we could come up with enough to match them. Their big rebounder Drame averages less than Ez. The other important factor after TOs is FG%....and the computer says we are the better shooting team. A good night from the field would go along way towards a win.

Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 4th seed (unch)....NIT chances....VCU...76% (up)...Rich...60%(dn)...St. B ..54% (new)...Loy...50%(new) General Outlook........We are slowly being locked into the PIG pen. While we still can escape (2 games out) we need to win some games to do so. While Duq is a decent team(15-10 ) they are only 1 game away from the PIG sty...so they are beatable. At the beginning of the A-10 season , I said there is no team we can't beat in the conference as long as we can match that team in TOs. I will stick to that statement going forward. Once we match TOs, regardless of the spread, the game becomes an even game. Let's take a look at the game Game Preview....The Bills continue to cling to a C- rating...a team with an improving offense and a faltering defense. Duq on the other hand grades out at B . ...a poor man's VCU. Like VCU, Duq has a weak offense and a good defense. The difference between the 2 teams is that Duq is a step down from VCU both in offense and defense. You could call Duq ...VCU lite. Grant and Clark are their go to guys. Unlike a lot of A-10 teams, Duq will come at you with a more traditional lineup of 2 guards and 3 forwards. Much of their scoring will be inside. As I mentioned above and you will see below in the report card...Duq has a weak offense EXCEPT if you leave them open. They don't take many shots but when they do they try to make them count. Bother them and we have a chance to win. Let's look at the card.... Report Card.... The Card is down.....2 up ( Off ) and 3 down (1 Off & 2 Def) .................SLU............DUQ................SLU...................DUQ ...........................OFF........................................DEF.......... PPG............C..................D...................F........................B+ FG%...........C..................D...................D+......................B 3P%...........A-.................C-.................D........................B- FT%...........B...................D............................. Reb...........D...................C..................D+......................C OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....PPG...FG%.....Def...none Down.........Off...Reb......Def...PPG...3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...56th...dn Duq Blks...Dixon...45th Stls...Clark...29th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills... Meadows...Quest...2/16...back Duq.. None Keys to the Game.......Control Grant and Clark and you control the game. If you can tamp them down they will look for Dixon as the escape hatch. Don't dribble into Dixon, he is looking for the block and if Clark is guarding you protect the ball as he is looking for the steal. Get some rebounds...no second chance shots for Duq. WWN2D2W...Target slash--Beat Duq across the slash line.....Match them in TOs and Rebs....Hold Grant and Clark to 25pts... Bottom line......... Grab a rebound And put a shot back in Bother Duquesne And we can leave town with a win.

Almost.... Step 1....Match or have less TOs....if this doesn't happen...about 80% chance for a loss....step 1a (if you don't match or have fewer TOs...score 20% more than your opponent from the arc for a chance to win. You may only go on to step 2 if you complete step 1...noncompletion of step 1 = loss Step 2.... Out rebound your opponent OR have a higher FG% than the other team Step 3...Bills win....70% if you out rebound....80% if your FG% is higher....95% if you do both.

Again the simple stat is TOs You lose the TO battle...you lose the game ...85% of the time. In order to overcome that stat (the 15%) we need to shoot 20% higher than the opponent from the arc...no simple task. Failure to do so spells auto loss. If we win the TO battle , we win 55% of the time....the deciding factor being FG% and reb...we usually lose both factors in games we lose with one of those stats becoming a double digit negative. Last night's game was a good example. We won the TO battle...but lost the 2 key factors...FG% and reb with one being by double digits...FG% lost 49%-47% and rebs 39-24 (double digit loss) Bottom line...This team has no margin for error. We can't give opponents extra chances...be it TOs or Rebs. If we do it almost always will spell loss.

Game Review Well the good news is we beat them on TOs. But if you have been reading along, you know that only evens up the game so we then have a chance to win. The next measuring stick after we we meet the TO requirement is the slash line. Let's take a look at some highlights from my original post above. Bolded statements from original post.... Keys to the Game.......Guard Bamisile from the arc....he killed us from 3 ( 70%..7-10) His 5 extra 3PM cost us 15 pts and the game. ...I guess this info didn't make it to the team. He only scored 27 pts instead of the 29 he had the first game....15 of those pts from the arc. Here is guy when he is not playing the Billikens averages about 11 ppg. Once again this guy costs us the game with an extra 16pts. He is also the reason we didn't make the next parameter... Beat VCU across the slash line...Had we scored 3 more 3PM plus 4 more FTs we would have beat them across the slash and won the game. We are the better shooting team...and yet they beat us across the slash. There is more but this is enough...you get the idea...match up the TOs and we have a chance to win....if we don't win on matched TOs it means we played poorly...poor 3 Pt shooting...poor reb...poor defense...etc. Well, we are not yet there but we are sinking toward that. Generally, when you give up 81 pts , it is considered an F- game. Could the Bills drop that low? It is possible but not probable. We would have to give up about 88 ppg over the next 6 games to reach that low. We don't have to reach that low to prove we are bad. And yet with all the negativity, the game was winnable. Remember the game was tied at 61 deep into the 2nd half...it was anyone's game and we let it slip away. No, this isn't a terrible team....it is a team that has some good parts but hasn't yet gelled. It is through that missing gel that victories slip away. The clock is ticking....

Since you are still here, I will give you an update. KenPom still has you down for a 5 pt win tomorrow against IUPUI (projected as your only win for the entire season). Unfortunately, my spread for that game has worsened. IUPUI by 7. Pray for KenPom results.

Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 4th seed....NIT chances...Rich ...87%...VCU...74% General Outlook........Yesterday , we were 2nd ITN in TOs ...LeMoyne had 1 more at 23. However, we still took the TO crown because LeM's TO spread was only 9 to our 12. While everyone will focus on the TOs in the coming days and getting that 22 number down, it is the spread which is important. Let's say we get get that 22 number for the VCU game down to 12...there will still be a problem if we only force them to TO 3 times(9 spread). So how do things look for the rest of the season. Again, let's look at the VCU game. If we match them in TOs, the 5 pt spread is gone and then it will be about basketball stuff....slash line/shooting...rebs ...assists...defense. ...but unless we match TOs the rest won't matter. Here are some interesting projections....if we match teams in TOs the rest of the season we win half of the remaining games. If we match AND make the slash we win most of the rest of the games. If we match and play like we did on offense the last 2 games...we win all the remaining games...most of them being blowouts for SLU. Take a deep breath ...count to 3 and then let it out. One of the things that surprised me in looking over today's data is our overall standing. We are still a C- team...but beyond that we didn't move. On my rankings, I have SLU at 206...before the St. J game we were 207. I am thinking a 1 pt loss on the road to a pretty good team and virtually no change. So I asked the computer ...what gives?....It started talking about the United Way...artificial intelligence...what do you expect. Once we returned to SLU basketball it said it had projected a 9 pt win for St. J....7 of those pts were based on the home field advantage swap...which would then take it down to 2 pts ...we lost by 1 pt ....take out the rounding errors amounted to a difference of less than 1 pt. What this means is that between now and the last time we played St. J a month ago the computer didn't see any overall improvement. No question that certain areas have improved... offense and rebounding but other areas have declined ...TOs and defense...canceling out the gain. Result equals no overall change ...no overall improvement. Let's take a look at the game Game Preview....VCU comes in as a B+ team. Right now listed as an NIT team. I don't list a team for the Dance unless they have at least a 50% chance of making it. If you read the above paragraph, you see we have a chance to win this game. VCU playing at our place is pretty much the same as us playing at St. J. On offense, we are the better team right now. On the other side of the coin , VCU has one of the best defenses ITN. Let's look at the card.... Report Card.... The card is positive.....4 up ( 3 Off & 1 Def ) and none down .................SLU............VCU................SLU.....................VCU ...........................OFF..........................................DEF.......... PPG..........C-..................D+...................F+......................A FG%..........C-..................C-...................D........................A+..13th ITN 3P%...........A-..................B.....................D+.....................A+..13th ITN FT%..........B...................A+...10th ITN............................. Reb...........D+.................C+..................D+......................B+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....3P%...FT%...Reb.....Def...FG% Down.........Off...none......Def...none Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...54th...up VCU Blks...Fermin...63rd FT%....Shulga...97th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills... Meadows...Quest...2/10...back VCU... None Keys to the Game.......Guard Bamisile from the arc....he killed us from 3 ( 70%..7-10) His 5 extra 3PM cost us 15 pts and the game. We need to shoot much better than the last VCU game...36/20/94...We missed 4 extra 3P shots (12pts) ...even the 94% didn't matter because they had more FTM because of an extra 7 FTAs. (they shot 80%) WWN2D2W...Target slash--Beat VCU across the slash line...Hold VCU to 70 pts....Match them in TOs and Rebs....Hold Bamisile to 12pts...Hold the top 4 VCU scorers to 40 pts. Bottom line......... TOs to match Layups to jam Exceed their slashline And beat the Ram.

Pitino Sr has said he wants his kid to take the St. John's job when he retires. In the meantime , I think he wants his kid to stay put at NM.

What can I say?...After 2 months of talking/harping about TOs (Just check the charts in this thread above on TOs) the St. J star of the game was our TOs. St. J didn't beat us ...we gave them the game. If we match them on TOs we win by 20+ ...In other words, we do the same thing we did to LaS to a much better team ...blow them out at home. There were so many things that went right in this game BUT as I have pointed out many times before...Lose the TO battle...lose the game. The stat right now stands at 85%...If you lose the TO battle you have an 85% chance to lose the game. Hard to overcome that. The most amazing set of numbers was to give up 22 TOs (TO spread was 12) and to only lose by 1. Usually 20 TOs or a TO spread of 10 spells automatic loss. Some of the things that went right...bolded from above... can a healthy Parker now play at least 21 min and score at least 15 pts and 3 rebs and replace the Dalger production...yes...34 pts ...9 reb ...27 min ...far exceeded Can Hargrove score more than the 8Pts and 1 reb from the last St. J game ....yes...19 pts ..8 reb...far exceeded Match rebounds.....Yes..40-30...again far exceeded Hold Reynolds and Greer to 30 pts....17pts and yet another far exceed Target slash....47/ 39/ 74... another yes...actual 49/42/86 We ALMOST did everything we needed to do to win...I leave you with 1 thought... Lose the TO battle...lose the game.

There has been a lot of hand wringing this season...some of it deserved ....some of it overblown. It all depends on comparisons and expectations. In the D-1 universe , we are a C- team , slightly below average. We are certainly not an end of the world team.....see the Detroit Titans thread elsewhere on the board for that scenario ...Compared to the Titans , we look like a Final 4 team. In the Billiken world , we are looking for a Top 50 team (A- ), a team that has a chance to Dance. In that sense we have fallen far short....and thus the fan unrest. I have seen talk comparing this team to the Crews years. If we look at the 21st Century teams...the 2 worst teams are 3rd year Crews 11-21 (3-15) and 1st year Ford 12-21 (6-12). Both teams are rated at D and in a simulated game against one another the game would be even. If the present day Bills played either team the current Bills would be favored by 3. Those 2 past Bills teams are comparable to present day DePaul ...3-20...0-12. If DePaul played the Bills today at the Fetz...Bills by 7.... Current Bills playing old Bills teams is considered a neutral game at the Fetz. Bottom line ...This is not the worst team ever. In fact it is not the worst team of the 21st century. It is a disappointing team in that it is not competing in the A-10 or for The Dance. The good news is that in the new world of college basketball with the portal and NIL it is no longer a 4 or 5 year fix. Things can turn around in a year with the right moves. Things could be much worse now....you could be in Detroit.

My computer has a suggestion for you...schedule MS Valley St Delta Devils ...the only other winless D-1 team...Det by 3. Unfortunately , it shows no real world wins. In searching the computer world, my computer shows KenPom has you down for a win on Valentine's Day over IUPUI by 4. Sadly, my machine shows you losing to them by 5. I would say any win this season would definitely be a rush the court moment for the Titans. Good luck

I must have anticipated your question. While the above follow up chart doesn't exactly deal with usage, it does add more balance and context . The first TO chart is just the raw data used to produce the second chart. You will be happy to see that the computer in the 2nd chart agrees with you and doesn't want SvB bringing the ball up either.

And now it is time for the last piece of the TO puzzle...the + /- stat also known as the net worth statement. In other words , is a player adding value when he is on the floor or subtracting value. And if he is adding or subtracting value, how much is he contributing during the game. We will start with the TOE. (Turn Over Effect) This stat is more than just a POT (Points Off Turnovers...these are the points that the player has lost for the team as a result of the TO) . It also includes the LOP (Lost Opportunity Points) . This refers to the points that would have been potential scored by the team on the lost possession by the player. So let's review. POT+ LOP =TOE...The TOE is a bad number ...it is the negative effect of the player turning the ball over...It is the minus of the plus minus formula. The plus is the player's PPG. Which leads us to the final formula...PPG- TOE = Player net worth (+/-) So the way this works is you take each player's PPG and then you subtract their TOE you then have the player's net worth. Here is the net worth chart. Parker....+12 Jimerson...10.3 Ezewiro...10.3 Hargrove...9.1 Hughes...3.8 Thames...3.4 Meadows...3.1 Curcic.......1.9 Evans.......0.9 Zhang......0.8 SvB.........+0.5 Medley...-0.8 This chart gives a more balanced approach to TOs by balancing it against PPG...much the same way that TOs are used to balance assists. Of course there are other factors that affect the game and a player's time on the floor such as rebs, blks, stls, assts etc. But this is an important stat for the Bills in light of the fact that TOs are a major factor in the outcome of Bills games. If the computer were coach , it would start the first 5 on the list and go down the list as subs were needed. And of course the computer would work for cheap. You could pay it in giga-bit-coins. Of course , you could always pay it in cash ...as long as it was in Bills.

I think you are correct. Here is what the data shows.... This is TO/mins arranged in order ...fewest to highest...ie ...Thames 1 TO every 21.9 min Thames....21.9 min Hughes.....21.2 Meadows...21.2 Curcic.........20.7 Hargrove....20.2 Parker.......19.8 Jimerson...18.8 Ezewiro...16.8 SvB.........16 Zhang.....12.7 Evans......11 Medley....9.6 So yes ...you are spot on...Hughes for Medley would drop our TO ratio as Medley turns the ball over at nearly twice the rate Hughes does.

Here is an interesting simulation.... If we change just 1 stat in all our losses ...TOs...and make the TOs at least equal to our opponent...our record right now would be 6-4 in conference and 1 game out of the double bye 4th place. In addition, we would be 16-7 overall (a B team) ranked at 93. In many cases we are talking about only changing a few TOs as in forcing the opp to TO the ball over 1 more time and for us to lose it one less time. As they say ...the game is a matter of inches.