The Wiz

You are correct ...23 AP Poll ...24 Coaches Poll....Neither made The Wiz's Top 25. It will be interesting to see if St. B can hang on to their ranking after the close call with D- rated Canisius. I have already downgraded St. B to A- and even with The Bills. Let's hope that same downgrade happens to Mem tomorrow.

I used the wrong name but the data is based on the FedEx Forum

The EIU game concludes the Cupcake portion of the season. These games turned out to be valuable....They let the Bills build some confidence, tap into some of their potential and do a little gelling. It would have been nice if we could have then transitioned into some harder games...say a C rated team but instead we are going straight from the freezer to the oven as we face A rated Memphis. Before we get started here ...let's do some trivia questions. ...Trivia with a purpose. 1...What team is most like Memphis from a competitive standpoint?... ie The game would be even on a neutral court. 2...What venue is most like the Pyramid?... ie This court would be just as difficult for a visiting team as the Pyramid 3...If we played Mem at the Fetz, who wins? Answers 1. St. B...When I search the database for the team most likely to play Mem even...St. B appears..... ...This is interesting...Both are A teams . Memphis is ranked 12th. St. B is not ranked. Memphis is not a ranked team on my list (probably a bit over ranked by the voters) ... We know that St. B is a good team that will likely get a dance bid but know one here would be ringing their hands going...OMG...It's St. B ...Oh woe is me. We would say ...this is a tough game that we can win...need to do the same with this Mem game. 2...The Pyramid is a very tough venue to play in for visiting teams. Again a search of the database for a similar difficult venue turns up...Dayton. We know Dayton well...it is home team friendly arena but we have won their before and likewise we can win in the Pyramid. 3...The Bills would be favored in a game at the Fetz today. The point of this question is to show how close these teams are on a competitive level. You say how can that be . That is because the Bills currently grade out at A- just a shade below Mem. But wait ..the Bills have played a cupcake schedule...well so has Mem....both teams grade out at F on SOS. So when you dig deeper into the data , The Bills actually matchup pretty well against Mem. Let's look at the report card. ..........................SLU............................................Mem..........................................SLU.....................................Mem ...................................................OFF.........................................................................................DEF............... PPG............................A+...7 ITN.............................B+............................................A.........................................B+ FG%...........................A+...17th ITN..........................A+...19th ITN..........................A.........................................A+..15th ITN 3Pt%...........................A-...........................................A.............................................C..........................................A+..17th ITN FT%.............................B.............................................D............................................................................................ Reb.............................A-............................................C+...........................................A+...9th ITN.......................B OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP.......OFF......PPG...FG%,,,,FT%...Reb..........DEF....PPG..FG%..3P%...Reb Down...OFF..3P% Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm Assts...Collins...5th FG%...Traore....63rd (75%) ...Linssen...89th (72.2%) Double-Double....Collins...17th....Okoro....17th Mem FG%....Duren....57th (76.9%) Blks......Duren... 8th (4blks)...Danbridge ...72nd WWN2D2W We need to take care of the ball....We have done that so far . We have averaged an excellent 10.5 TOs /gm. Meanwhile , Mem has averaged 18 PER GAME. Remember, this is against the same bad competition we played. This is their Achilles heel. If we can maintain a spread of 8+ TOs, we will win this game. ...Rebounds ... The data shows we can outrebound them. ....We need to shoot well. ....50/40/80....these numbers are not pie in the sky ...we are doing them. This game again presents the fly swatter problem. They have not one but 2 swatters...Duren and Danbridge....together they average 6 to 7 blocks /game....be more selective on the shots ...I thought we deed a pretty good job against Hamlin...the EIU swatter...a good warmup for this game. ...one last thing ...they are a bad shooting FT team.. we can beat them at the charity stripe...when was the last time we could say that. Bottom line...We need to shoot well ...we need to press them and force errors. We need to come out and set the tempo of the game right from the opening bell. If we make a few baskets and take care of the ball...Memphis could be singing the blues.

Well, I am sure the NCAA's heart is in the right place by limiting spreads to 10. .....Scam? That is a rather harsh word for just one variable in a bigger model. To me the word scam would have to encompass something much larger. Say something like the NET model which is used to determine who goes to the Crown Jewel of the NCAA ...The Big Dance....The King of all models...for it is that model which determines who goes and who stays. . Of course , you don't really need a model to pick a Gonz, Kan or Mich....Your Aunt Edna could do that. No, the model is for the tougher decisions. Those final ones where you have to decide the final seeds. To me a scam would be when your model would be pointed at a fine Midwest school that has overcome adversity...being wiped out by the Covid and still manages to limp to the finish line with good players, good numbers (based on your own model) and a good record....and then you chuck the model go into a room with your cronies and decide to take lesser teams based on your model and then make up some story about choosing worthy teams. Now that would be a scam. Thank goodness, we have good people at the NCAA who would never let that happen.

Interesting thread discussion ...a little off topic but interesting. Comparing investing / investment analysis to sports betting and basketball model forecasting....what a novel concept. As far as investing is concerned, it is probably a good idea to leave that to the experts. As for basketball metrics and forecast modeling, I can only speak to what I do. There are a number of variables that I use ...SOS , team and individual stats, point spreads, home field advantage and how the 358 teams interact and connect with one another, injuries, trending numbers, etc.. About a dozen different variables. The point spread is the final output. Zeroing in on 1 variable discussed above is how an increased point spread can affect a forecast model. My point spread has nothing to do with sports betting. The model is trying to pick the exact winning spread. Sports betting takes the model ( any one of dozens ) and uses it as a framework which then can be distorted depending on how the money flows. Those on this board who use my model to bet say they use it when they see a difference between my model and the money spread. As for the actual spread and how it affects the forecast, it is a metric of diminishing returns....Most of the value in the spread is captured in the 1st 7pts (84%)...by the time the spread is at 10pts you are up to about 93% of the worth of the metric...15pts = 97%...For example , the fact that the Bills won by 44 over EIU instead of 24 will have no additional affect on my forecast of the Memphis game. Not an accident that the NCAA when using point spread metrics to give out bids has a cutoff of 10 pts. They want to discourage teams from running up the score to get a bid or better seed. They have what they need at 10 pts. Anyway, let's get back to the EIU game.... Nice win ...Nice defense. Let's look at the original post.... What We Need TO Do TO Win Show up.....We did...We came to play Hamlin...this is a 6-10 235 lb long armed fly swatter. Don't try to shoot over this guy.... This guy had 3 blocks. Considering we had a big number of shots (65 ) AND had A+ shooting from all ranges , we did a good job . one area that continues to dog us is 3Pt Def.... We did another good job here...held them to 27.8% It seems EIU doesn't like to play 3Pt D either. So this could be a game of a lot of 3pt shots....a battle we should win A to C-....Here is one of the few downers in the game ...we didn't win this battle....3pt %...F- to F- ...We shot 20%...I will call this a draw. The tale of the tape... So how did we not only win by 24 but tack on another 20 pts on top of that... By doing this... SLU slash.....49/ 58/20/ 79......A+ / A+ / F- / A+ EIU slash.....26/25/ 28 / 76.5......F- / F- / F- / A All aboard for Memphis

I have been doing it the last few years in the report card section of the spread threads....I will keep doing it as long as we have qualifiers in the Top 100 ITN.

One thing I forgot to put in the original post of this thread was our probability of making The Dance. In my preseason forecast , I mentioned we were B+ (the transition grade) and that we had a 54% chance to get a bid. We are still at B+ but are chances have improved to 62%...Not a lock by any means but at this point in the season , I will take it.

Great game against Har-Sto...impressive numbers even against a non D1 team. For more info on why this was a historic game see the Har-sto game review thread. On to EIU. Or as Yogi Berra use to say...It's Deja Vu, all over again. The reason it is a Deja Vu is this will be a copy of the 1st game (C Ark.)...EIU is an F team like C Ark and Northwestern is a B+ team like we are. So essentially another matchup of B+ (us) vs F (EIU). Coincidentally, Northwestern won that game by 24....the same as forecasted for this game. I say coincidentally, because I use a lot more metrics than just game spreads but in this game the numbers came together. Before we look at the report card, just a couple of notes. I was able to integrate the Har-Sto stats into the data so we will probably be on the Offensive Honor Roll for the next few games (hopefully longer than that). These stats will not figure into any forecasts or the overall team grade when figuring forecasts. The reason I was able to add the data was because the Har -Sto game was a "real" game unlike Rockhurst and Lindenwood which were exhibitions. So let's see what Super "O" Bills look like ..........................SLU...............................EIU...............................SLU.......................................EIU ..........................................OFF..........................................................................DEF............... PPG......................A+.............................F+.................................B...........................................D- FG%......................A...............................D-..................................B.........................................C+ 3Pt%.....................A...............................C-..................................D+.......................................D+ FT%......................B-........ ......................B.............................................................................. Reb......................B+...............................C+................................A.........................................D OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....N/A this game Down...N/A Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm Assts...Collins...2nd Stls......Collins....68th FG%...Linssen...91st 80% Double-Double....Collins...1st....about 50 players tied EIU Blks....Hamlin ....7th While our Offensive grades look great...the most impressive stat so far is the B- on FTs We have been F- for years What We Need TO Do TO Win (in the future referred to as WWN2D2W)....Show up.....Seriously though, there are a few cautions....Hamlin...this is a 6-10 235 lb long armed fly swatter. Don't try to shoot over this guy...time to get the brooms out in practice. .....The report card overall looks pretty good but one area that continues to dog us is 3Pt Def. EIU is not a great shooting 3P team but if we leave them alone they will start making shots. Good time to work on that arc defense. It seems EIU doesn't like to play 3Pt D either. So this could be a game of a lot of 3pt shots....a battle we should win A to C-. Bottom line....If we play like we did in the first 4 games...we win...We need to build on the games we have played and keep this train moving toward Memphis.

Those that produce will play....T Ford

I know a few of these facts are floating around on the GDT but I thought I would condense them plus add a few. First great game....many records fell tonight. In addition many great plays and some smart basketball was played. Let's take a look at them 73 pts....largest victory margin ever. 73 pts....Most pts in a half 27 FGs ....most in a half 50 FGs ....Tied for most in a game 127pts....40th time The Bills have scored 100+ pts......2nd most in a game...1st was against Roosevelt with 130 in 1978....A-10 record...134 pts. 6 players with 9+ pts Yuri with his first back to back double digit assist games. Now the slash....64/68/56/81....4 A+ Now right here the naysayers are going ..."yeah but" There is no "yeah but" these are great numbers even if there was no opponent out there. Just great shooting. Sadly these won't count in my report cards (again not D-1) Nor will they show up in most other full season data bases. And we won't do this at this level against the tougher teams but this game shows some of the potential that my preseason forecast was pointing to. We are a good team even with Perkins missing. We are better than most think we are....Now we just need to go out and show them.

Bills will win

No ....Not a D1 game

This win is in line with what I expected. Winning by 25+ validates the preseason B+ ranking . It also validates the C Ark F rating. This was a tune up game as the players and coaches figure things out. Let's look at some of the numbers.... 51/ 41 / 65....A+/ A+/ F....After a slow start the shooting turned out to be good....a promising beginning. Before anyone says here we go again with foul shots ...know that with just 1 more FTM we are at C-. So it is too early to draw any conclusion about FTs. One last thing about the slash. Let's look at 1st half vs 2nd half.... 1st half.....43/ 25/69.....2nd half.....59/50/ 50...whether it was opening night jitters or rust we definitely got off to a slow start. I thought Traore was instrumental in turning the game around in the 1st half. He broke us out of our funk. 12 TOs...This is an OK number...yes there were some careless TOs but for an opening game this is good....especially in light of the fact we forced them into 22 TOs. More than 20 TOs on a game always spells loss. Room for improvement....6 steals and 6 blks against us is too many...the good news in this game is we had 12 steals. Good stuff....double double for Yuri...12 assist is a lot even for Yuri...Interesting fact....Yuri had more assists than the entire C Ark team ...12 vs 11....Also rebs looked good not only because we had 44 but because it was spread out nicely. Bottom line....Good opening game....hopefully we can build on this game.

Let's start the season with a trivia question. What player in last year's C Ark vs Bills game finished 2nd to Yuri's 9 assists with a total of 8 for the game. The answer ....none other than the Bills DeAndre Jones...who played for C Ark last year. Hmmm... does that mean Yuri and DJ will get 17 assists in tomorrow's game? As you can tell by the spread....not much to see here. C Ark with a grade of F while the Bills start off with a B+ . (for more info on the upcoming season , see my forecast in an earlier thread). This game will be another exhibition EXCEPT this counts. These next 2 games will be important in terms of getting up to speed quickly. EIU our next opponent is also an F team. We will have to play these next 2 games as though they were against worthy opponents because after these games the opponent will be worthy....12th ITN and A rated Memphis. We do not have the luxury this year of rounding into shape over 4 or 5 games. We need to come out of the gate at full speed. This won't be easy to go full tilt against a team that we are favored to beat by 25 pts....but that's what we need to do. Go like it counts...cause it does. Go Bills

Let me summarize your post in one word...gel. The ability to mold a team into a cohesive well oiled machine that plays as if it 1 unit. The gelled team forms something bigger than the 5 individuals on the floor...a synergistic effect. I think this is one of Ford's strengths. The ability to take players who are rough around the edges or don't play well together and have them grow into a basketball team. No matter how we start or who we start with, by Feb we have a team that the rest of the A-10 is worried about. We are always much better in Feb than Nov. So the trick is to get through the next 2-3 months without making a lot of mistakes or huge ones. I trust that Ford will continue to do what he has done in the past....play the cards he is dealt and play them in the best fashion possible. Btw , there has been a lot of talk about the OOC schedule....Here is a report card of our OOC schedule.....This should give you a better idea of what we are up against..... C Ark....F EIU........F Mem.....A Mer......C+ ISU.......D+ Buff/SFA....B+/ B- BSU......B UAB......B Bel........B BC.........B- Aub.......A- Drake....B+ Of course grades will change as I add real data to the mix but this is where we stand now.

And so we begin again. For those that are new , this is the first of 2 forecasts....the preseason and pre conference . This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data. I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together. As the season starts to unfold, I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with the real data model. As I gradually integrate the real data with the forecasting tool I drop the Bayesian (after the UAB game on Dec 7). As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work). A new tweak I have added this year is with the grade of B+ (the transition grade) An A- team is pretty much a lock for an NCAA bid (90%). At B you have missed the boat. The change I am making this year is when The Bills are at B+ I will also put a % with the grade....probability of making the Dance. The number of games figured are 30 ....No A-10 tourney or exhibition games. Let's take a look at the A-10 report card.... 1...St. B.....A 2...SLU.....B+ 3...Day......B+ 4...Rich.....B+ 5...VCU.....B+ 6...Dav......B 7...RI..........B 8...GM,,,,,,,B- 9...Mass....B- 10...Duq.....C+ 11...St. J.....C+ 12...LaS......C 13...GW.......D+ 14...Ford.....D- These grades can vary 2 steps till the out of conference games are over...then the grades narrow to one step....So a grade of B+ at the beginning of the season has a variance of B- to A. That same grade at the beginning of conference play is variable from B to A-. The Bills B+ translates anywhere from 9th seed NCAA bid (best case scenario) to no bid (worst case scenario). For the conference, we have 1 locked bid plus 2 or 3 more bids. Finally, there is the Perkins factor. These prognostications are figured with a Perkins free team. There is no getting around it , the loss of Perkins was significant. Is the season over? ...Do we have little or no chance to make the Dance? This is the conclusion that a lot of forecasters have reached. After running the numbers, I am happy to report my numbers are much more optimistic than a lot of the "experts". To paraphrase Mark Twain ...Reports of the demise of the Billikens have been greatly exaggerated. While we are no longer a lock for a Dance bid , we still have a very good chance to Dance. Here is how the seasons project on a won loss basis..... 24-6....most probable and not too shabby 27-3...Best case scenario. 21- 9 ...worst case scenario...barring some unforeseen surprise....like losing more players Toughest games.....Memphis and St. B away...easiest games...C Ark and EIU...most important game ...St. B at home Our chances at this point at B+ are 54% to get an NCAA bid. If Ford can work his magic and get the team to gel as the season progresses, we may see some extra action in the 2nd half of March. Go Bills

First, this was an exhibition game , so the numbers are not real meaningful. The numbers are not meaningful because the game day players in real games will have different minutes and we will be playing tougher teams. However, there are still some takeaways from this game. Let's first look at the the slash line.....57 / 71 / 30 / 65....A+/ A+/ F- / F...One thing to point out in this game was the Thatch factor....He had a strange game...While excellent from 2 pt range (5-6...83% ) the rest of his game seemed to be off...0-3 from 3pt range and the FT line plus 3 TOs...3s were wild for him.. Leaving Thatch's numbers off the slash, it grades out like this... A+/ A+/ B+ / A+ plus 10 TOs which also grades out at A+. Not trying to pick on him , just saying except for the 2s he had an off night which I which I will chalk up as an anomaly. The point is that we need to keep an eye on FT shooting and 3 pt shots as a team. Which brings me to my next point...3 pt shooting. ...When how much and who. Of course if we continue to shoot 71% from inside the arc...the answer will be never unless you can shoot 48%+ from the arc. Realistically, we are not going to shoot 70% from 2 as we face tougher defenses. But I think it is possible for the Bills to shoot in the lower 50%s. If that comes to pass then 3pt shooting will have to be about 35%+ to make it worthwhile to shoot.... We may have to be more selective as to taking better shots , who shoots and how many shots we take. If we shoot 35%+ ...then fire away. Overall these last 2 games were warm ups. We will have a much better gauge of things when we play Central Ark. on Nov 9th....Even if C ARK isn't the toughest competition, it will be a real step up from D2 or D3.

As this was an exhibition game ...no spread or forecast. Post game there are not a whole lot of conclusions you can draw. As a Div II team Rockhurst is not in our league. But there are still numbers to look at. Let's look at a few. First the slash.....43.5% /57.5 /24.1 / 65.4....raw slash....30-69 /23-40 /7-29 / 17-26 Graded slash.........C..../....A+ / F- / F+ Again this is an exhibition but a few things stand out in this game...We can shoot 2's but not 3s...hopefully the 3s will improve as the year progresses....also we still seem to be weak at the FT line...again, hopefully this too improves. If our numbers stay high inside the arc we will have to shoot much better from the 3 pt line to justify taking the extra risk of the 3 pt shot. For instance, if we were to continue to shoot at 57.5% from 2pt range , we would have to shoot 38.3% from 3. ( an A+ rate from the arc) I don't expect us to continue to shoot at 57.5% going forward but it is not unthinkable to say we will be a good shooting team inside the arc. This means we will have to be more selective in 3s ...either by taking better 3s or being more selective as to who takes the 3s. Just something to think about going forward. Overall , an entertaining game except for the Perkins injury. The main take away from this exhibition was........To go see the kids play. Bottom line......LOUPOU......Lots Of Upside Potential Outcome Unknown

You are correct ....I use my true wizardry skills for the big money.

Here are what the numbers look like to me.... Last year's slash line looks great....unfortunately , because of his shortened season, the numbers don't register because they are all small sample sizes. I have put together a more meaningful slash line...lines from seasons that have enough data. 41.6% (18-19)/ 35% (19-20) / 82% (18-19 & 19-20) Note...while previous 3P seasons qualified, only 19-20 has the current 3P line.,,,again 20-21 sm sam size Graded out slash....D / B- / A+

I liked that he shot 61% from the 3pt line at BBE.

https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/us-supreme-court-rejects-ncaa-defense-athlete-compensation-limits-2021-06-21/

If you can pardon the pun, the ball is now in the NCAA's court. "IF".... they can figure out a fair and equitable way to distribute the incoming revenues so all teams have a level playing field then college sports will be able to continue to function. This court decision forces the NCAA to deal with something that it didn't want to....and now the chickens have come home to roost. I am sure the NCAA will do what is right....please insert blue font on this line

In a unanimous decision, the Supreme Court ruled that college athletes are entitled to compensation beyond the existing athletic scholarships. This earth shaking court opinion will change college sports forever.

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