Billikens #1 potential 'Giant Killers'

[majerus mojo]

http://insider.espn....ams-pull-upsets

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We have briefed you on our forensic methods, and we have whetted your appetite for the blood of Goliaths. Now it's time to break out the spreadsheets and see which teams actually rate as the likeliest Davids in this year's NCAA field.

Here are the top 10 potential Giant Killers, rated on a scale from 0 to 100 by our 2012 statistical model. These are the highest scores among all eligible teams, whether they are already in the NCAA tournament, working their way through conference championships or awaiting word about their bids. We will get to actual head-to-head odds once we know actual tournament seedings. Also, this is a lot more detailed than we're going to go into for Giants. You probably know a thing or seven about Syracuse and Kentucky already. This is your chance to keep diving into what could make less famous teams Killer material -- and to figure out which schools to root for in the week leading up to Selection Sunday.

St. Louis Billikens (38.4): The Billikens stand astride the widest fault line in college hoops analytics today. Many bracektologists, reflecting the thinking of the NCAA and mainstream media types, just can't see a second-place team in a mid-major conference as elite, and have St. Louis pegged as something like a 9- or 10-seed, while advanced metrics view Rick Majerus' squad as one of the best teams in the country. (The BPI ranks SLU 12th in the nation.) That mismatch would offer a worthwhile value play even if St. Louis weren't built like a Killer, but it is. The Billikens are extraordinarily efficient on the defensive end, holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of just 44.2 percent, they shoot 37.1 percent on 3-pointers, and they turn the ball over on just 17.9 percent of possessions. Crawl, keep the ball, let the bombs fall: That's a tasty recipe for baking upsets.

Their path forward: The Billikens are seeded second (behind Temple) in this week's Atlantic 10 tournament, with a bye in the first round. A win probably makes them an NCAA lock. A win or two plus a loss probably keeps them seeded low enough to be a potential Killer.

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VCU, Belmont, UNM, Marshall, Witch St, So Miss, Old Dom, Cle St, & Richmond (26.4) round out the top 10.

[AlumniFan]

Richmond?

P.S. VCU just one their tourney against Drexel.

[majerus mojo]

Richmond Spiders (26.4): You can see the Spiders working off the same script that made them a huge Giant Killing success story in 2011. They still shoot and defend well on the perimeter and protect the ball, and while they don't rebound well, they didn't last season, either -- that's a function of Chris Mooney's players sticking to their spots rather than crashing the boards. Unfortunately, keyed by the departure of All-GK Honorable Mention Justin Harper, Richmond lost nearly 3.5 inches of effective height this season, and its interior defense has really suffered. Opponents are shooting nearly 48 percent and scoring nearly 60 percent of their points from inside.

Their path forward: Absurdly tough, it begins tomorrow night with Richmond, which is seeded 10th in the Atlantic 10 tournament. But don't discount their chances to damage other at-large contenders in the A-10 -- the Spiders are still a high-risk/high-reward team.