AlumniFan Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 At the risk of starting a big debate, according RPIForecast.com, the Billikens have a 43.90% chance of receiving an automatic bid. By comparison, Kansas has a similar chance (43.41%), Temple has a 17.96% chance, Xavier an 8.30% chance, Mizzou has a 28.29% chance, and Illinois has a 0.52% chance. I am sure this is suspect, because I could not find many teams with a higher percentage chance (Wichita State was just above 50% and Kentucky was 61%), but it was pretty interesting. I may be reading this wrong, but I think (for once in my life) I may be right. Let the debate begin... P.S. I apologize if this has been posted, but I did not see it anywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Wouldn't that be the chances of winning the conference tourney? Which most schools would be under 50%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlumniFan Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yes, that would make sense which makes this even more interesting and promising for the Bills especially vis a vis the Owls. In any event, yes, you would not expect many teams to be that high to begin with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 RPIforecast.com uses Sagarin predictor with Bill James' log 6 algorithm to forecast winners of all the conference tournaments. SLU is currently at 99% likely to get an at-large bid to the NCAA using the Sagarin predictor so couple that with the 44% chance of winning the A-10 that means we have a 99.44% chance at tourney purity. (I know statistically it does not work like that--IF we lost 3-5 games down the stretch we would not be favorites in the A-10). Even calculated with proper adjusters SLU is currently well over 90% likely to be in the tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Chance of getting auto-bid, from RPI Forecast: SLU - 43.9% Temple - 17.96% Xavier - 8.3% La Salle - 7.5% St Joes - 6.78% UMass - 5% St Bona - 4.8% Dayton - 3.2% Duquesne - 1.32% Richmond/Charlotte/GW - less than 1% each Fordham/Rhode Island - essentially 0% That seems really high. We need to be 90% to win in the quarters, then 80% to win in the semis, then 60% in the finals, if you multiply them that comes out to about 43% to win all 3 in a row. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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