o.t. if today was selection sunday

[billiken_roy]

there were no conference tourney winners in the top 15 conferences with rpi's over 40.

and a top 40 rpi guaranteed at minimum an at large spot.

15 conferences do not have a team in the top 40 rpi. so those conferences would take 15 automatic spots. they also would use the bottom 15 seeds so no at large team will get a seed worse than a 12.

the following conferences would get the top 40 spots:

ACC - 4 teams

Pac 10 - 4 teams

Big 12 - 6 teams

Big Ten - 4 teams

Big East - 7 teams

SEC - 3 teams

A-10 - 4 teams

West Coast Conference - 2 teams

MVC, Mountain West, Horizon, CUSA, Mid American, Sunbelt would all get just one bid.

that would leave 10 teams for at large bids. looking at the rpi, from 41-60 right now, there are 11 BCS teams. just knowing that there indeed will be conference tourney upsets, it is a pretty safe bet that the top 40 is pretty much the cut off for non BCS teams to get at large bids.

a month to go, it is fun to watch selection sunday shape up.

[Bearvision]

Long way to go, but you're right with your thoughts as of today, I'd say.

In the end, I think the A-10 gets three, but it's definitely been a good year for the A-10.

Even top-40 isn't safe if you want an at-large (MSU will attest to that), you better finish strong if you're a mid-major, and do well in your conference tourney.

The system was flipped on its ear a few years back, and the committee has been trying to make sure we don't have another "Geaorge Mason" ever since. The match ups in the first rounds will probably continue to feature mid-majors versus mid-majors to ensure more of them are out in the first rounds, and the money stays with the big conferences.

This is just my opinion, and I agree that the MVC gets only one unless Drake loses in the conference tourney.

[billiken_roy]

Long way to go, but you're right with your thoughts as of today, I'd say.

In the end, I think the A-10 gets three, but it's definitely been a good year for the A-10.

Even top-40 isn't safe if you want an at-large (MSU will attest to that), you better finish strong if you're a mid-major, and do well in your conference tourney.

The system was flipped on its ear a few years back, and the committee has been trying to make sure we don't have another "Geaorge Mason" ever since. The match ups in the first rounds will probably continue to feature mid-majors versus mid-majors to ensure more of them are out in the first rounds, and the money stays with the big conferences.

This is just my opinion, and I agree that the MVC gets only one unless Drake loses in the conference tourney.

i admit it isnt what the final breakout will be on march 16. but it has always seemed that come the first of february the rpi really starts to show what is really happening.

as to top 40, sure one or two missouri states may happen, but from following the rpi the last few years, it is pretty obvious that the most common break off point is top 40.

i also like to demonstrate to folks that those 12-16 seeds are all the teams that get in just because they won their conference tourney and then you get a feel for what is left over for conference tourney upsets in the top 15 conferences which then leaves the real bubble.

if the tourney was selected today and you were using the current top 40 rpi teams and none of those teams won their respective tourney's the teams that might not get in now imo are south alabama, kent state, and unlv before they would pick on the a-10 teams in the top 40. imo if selection sunday was today, the only way they would pick on dayton, umass, rhode island or xavier and leave them out would be if one of them would not win our conference tourney as i do not think the committee would give us 5 teams. umass and dayton would be in trouble then.

a long way to go yet. there will be a lot of shaking before march 16 comes along. but it is fun to watch come to focus.