The Wiz

General Outlook....We are stuck in the PIG pen and trending down. There is still plenty of season left (1/3 of conf play is over) but we need a few wins. We let one slip away with Dav. We have another opportunity with UMass. As you can see by the spread , the computer thinks this will be a close game. Of course, the computer thought the last game would be close. We have a leaking spot in our D and unless it is fixed, it will continue to wreck spreads ...sometimes in a big way such as Dav or SIU. I am talking about opponent TOs which lead to negative TO spreads. Let me show you some stat grades in this upcoming UMass game....TOs...SLU C+...UMass B...so far not too bad...but wait ...there is more ...opponent TOs....UMass ..A-....SLU...F- ..16th worst ITN...If those grades play out on Sat we could lose by 20 pts...if we can match them on TOs the game is a tossup. Point of information...UMass gives up an average of 11.1 TOs /per game and we usually rack up about 11/gm...so this is not pie in the sky stuff...It is doable. Fix this and we will start winning again. Leave it loose and we will continue to trend down. Let's take a look at the game.... Game Preview....We are still clinging to a C-... a loss will knock us down a notch. UMass comes in with a B. They are a better team than Dav BUT they do have some weaknesses. They are not a very good 3P or FT team. We need to take advantage of that. Dav wasn't a great shooting 3 team either missing a number of shots EXCEPT when we left them open. This will be a little bit different look than the average A10 team where you see a 4 guard lineup with a big guy. The Minutemen will use 2 big guys in their lineups. Their main men are Cohen who leads in PPG , FG% and is 2nd in rebs.....and Cross who leads in Rebs and is 2nd in PPG.... Stopping them will also give us a chance to win. I mentioned UMass wasn't very good from the arc ...close in they are an excellent B+...we will have to watch our fouls. Let's take a look at this game's report card.... Report Card.... The card is negative...No up and 2 down......The good news is that the defense did not go down...the bad news it is in bad shape .................SLU............Mass................SLU.........................Mass ...........................OFF..........................................DEF............. PPG..........D+..................A-..................D-...........................C FG%..........D+.................B....................D-............................B 3P%...........B.....................D..................D+...........................C- FT%..........B-....................D..................................................... Reb...........D.....................B+....................D...........................B- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none.....Def....none Down.........Off....FG%...3P%......Def...none Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...41st...dn Mass Rebs....Cross...73rd Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills....None Mass....None Keys to the Game.......Slow down Cohen and Cross....Make some 3s...Force some TOs...No open shots from the arc...protect the ball, no careless giveaways. WWN2D2W...Target slash...46/37/75....Hold Mass to 72 pts....Come within 1 on TOs and Rebs....Hold Cohen to 13 pts...Beat Mass on 3P% and FT%...Out score them from the arc. Keep their top 3 scorers to 37 pts...hold Cross to 6 rebs. Bottom line....If we can make a few 3s and force a few TOs, we can turn this thing around in a Minute man.

Yes ...In Crews's final season 2015-16...C16. It went from 35 sec to 30 sec.

I can't address the spirit or chemistry of the team but I can show you the numbers. If you have been following my posts over time around the board , you will note that I have been harping on TO spread...the difference between the TOs we commit and the TOs the opponent commits. My contention is as soon as we close the TO gap we can compete with anyone. In the Dayton game, the Flyers had 8 TOs , we had 10...a close spread of 2. The only reason we lost the game to 14th ranked Day is because they had an extra 22 FTA. They were lucky to win that game. Now contrast that with the Dav game . We had a decent 12 TOs but they had only 3....those extra 9 TOs were worth about 20pts. The inability of the Bills to pressure the other team into TOs is a death blow to winning games.

The good news is the report card grades on defense held steady and didn't drop....the bad news is those grades are in a bad place now ...D- PPG, D- FG%, D+ 3P%, D Reb...The one stat that doesn't show up on the card but I have been talking about it for weeks is opponent TOs. After the Dav game we have fallen to F- 16th worst ITN for the season....In last night's game, Dav had 3 TOs...SLU is 2nd worst ITN on opp TOs in the last game played....ie #361. Interestingly, the one team that finished below us was WY a team we beat earlier in the year when the Cowboys turned the ball over 19 times.

Ha ha...I am The Wiz not a fairy god mother who can grant wishes. Unfortunately, there is no program to go back in time. You have to reprogram each team ...1 team at a time...a little time consuming....I have already granted 3 wishes...C15 , C16 and the current team...use your wishes wisely.

Yes, ...the fact that someone would ask about comparing one of the worst teams in recent history shows we are not in a good place. Up until the Crews era, I had the regular grading system and at the bottom was just the letter F. It was during Crew's tenure that I had to come up the F+ and F- to micro manage the bad numbers. We need to turn the ship around. The good news is that in this new age of NIL and transfers it can be done quickly.

I did...but the computer couldn't take the energy. I had to use a Windows 95 to get back.

I received a question in the Davidson spread thread from @SLU_Nick that I thought was interesting enough to create a new thread. Here it is... @The Wiz - what would the spread br if this team played the Crews/yarbrough/bartley team? Can the computer pull that one off? At first as was just going to give a simple ...no , the computer can't go back in time and play an old team....but then I thought while the computer can't do it on its own ...it might be able to do it if I helped it. I decided to give it a try. There were a lot of issues in trying to do that but one thing was I had the data base from back then....If I could convert the present day data back a decade I might be able to do the comparison. This led to a series of questions.... First (putting on my Doc Brown DeLorean hat) would going back in time upset the space time continuum. I decided it would be OK since things were a mess in the present. The next issue was how to convert the data into 2014-2016...The algorithms that I use now are different. The NCAA was different... 11 teams less . Even the game was different...a shorter 3P shot. But again, I not only had the data base from then but had the algorithm changes over the years. I could unwind the data using the changed rithms and go "back to the future". Once I was able to go back, I had to decide what to do? @SLU_Nick mentioned Yarbrough and Bartley teams. That really didn't help because they both played on 2 Crews teams...Crews 2014-15 and Crews 2015-16...these will be known going forward as C15 and C16. ...both bad teams but not the same. What to do?...Let's have a game between C15 & C16...again the space time continuum comes into play again as some of the same players are on both teams and are playing against themselves. But if the Delorean can do it so can the computer ...So we set the clock back to April 2016 and play the game at Chaifetz ..where both teams are the home team. C16 wins the game by 2. C16 turns out was the better team...While both C15 and C16 both had 11-21 records ...I had C15 with only 10 wins as 1 of the wins was not a D1 team. In addition C16 had a better SOS (B) than C16 (B- ). Further, C16 competed in an A10 conf that had 4 teams with 25+ wins....The C15 A-10 had only 2 teams with 25+ wins. So C16 with a tougher schedule , a better A-10 conf and 1 more win was the better team of the 2 bad Crews team. Overall grade C16...C-....C15 ..D. Next game was our current team against the C15 team.... Some other issues ....C15 played 31 games ...we have played only 19. ...Adjusting 3P shots for the 2 different time periods....etc. In this game, the Ford team wins by 3...btw the C16 game against Ford's current team ends in a tie...I didn't want to play the OT out ...The key piece of info was that the C16 team was equal to the present day team. Bottom line...The C15 team was worse than the present day team...however the season isn't over yet...I will leave it up to Nick if he wants to revisit this topic at the end of the season and see if the conclusion is different. We now return to 2024 using 1.21 gigawatts.

This post game analysis should be relatively easy....2 key issues ...Slash line miss and opponent TOs. 1...Slash line miss...There have been a number of slash line misses this season....These misses are not about pie in the sky unrealistic A+ shooting expectations....but a failure to make Billiken season averages.....Just do your own average for the season. In tonight's game, we missed a whopping 22 three pt shots....15%..3Pt% .... less than half of what we normal make. Not good...On an average night we would have made 6 more 3s...18 pts...an impossible stat to overcome. 2...TOs...More specifically TO spread...the difference between our TOs and our opponent's TOs. The problem isn't so much how many TOs we have ...we have a slightly above average C+ in team TOs. But when we look at opponent TOs we are a horrible F rated team. I have not even figured in tonight's 3 TOs but when I do it will show we are one of the worst Div 1 teams in opponent TOs. This stat led to the related factor of pts off TOs...21-0 in favor of Dav Bottom line...The inability of SLU to force TOs on opposing teams is why we have a losing record this season.

I agree...Dav is a C- 3P shooting team....below average by anyone's standards. I also agree that you can't just give a flat number of 3s like 8.3/gm. You have to look at it and ask-- were these the right shots to take. In other words, when should I take a 2 and when should I take a 3. In Davidson's case they should have passed on some of those 3s as it was costing them points on missed shots. The risk/reward formula is simple. You take your 3P% and multiply it by 1.5. If the product is less than your 2P% shooting rate , you shouldn't be taking as many 3s or at least redirecting the shots to better 3P players. Let's look at the Dav case. 3P%x1.5=50.1%...Dav is hitting 52.3% from 2...The breakeven point is 34.9%....this means they are inefficiently shooting 3s and should be taking less or redirecting shots to players who are shooting 35% or better. While we are on the subject, we should take a look at SLU. SLU is shooting an excellent 37.4% from the arc....we are shooting 48% from inside the arc(grade D). We are a 3P shooting team. But further than that are a couple of more points. #1... Most 3P shots should be taken by players who are shooting more than 32%. For the most part this is happening. Unfortunately, Dalger was shooting 27.3%...so at least with this stat , it will be addition by subtraction....ie this stat (2P/3P ratio) should improve(addition) now that he is gone(subtraction). Btw, this is not a knock on Dalger ...I liked his hustle and toughness...just pointing out the facts. #2 ...We need to improve 2P shooting dramatically . Just because you can make 3s doesn't mean you should overlook 2s especially the bunnies and short stuff. The good news is this number is starting to trend up. Finally, one data item I find annoying is the lack of reporting on 2P info. It is missing from most box scores and some data bases. This stat is vital to determining who shoots 3s and how many the team should take as a whole. Perhaps one day it will be included in box scores.

Good question...We will have more of an answer after the Wed game and we see who takes up the extra minutes. Here is the way it looks now ...at first glance, it looks like a big hole to fill.... 9.7ppg...4.1 reb...nearly 24 min/gm. The computer though looks at the trend and sees a guy who has faded a bit in recent games . In 5 of the last 7 games...he has scored 3.8ppg...4.2 rebs...in nearly 19 min/gm. So the real question is can we get somebody(ies) to come in and play almost half a game and score 3.8 pts and get 4.2 rebs. I think if you take the 19 min and spread them around the answer is yes. Add 4 more min to EZ and Zhang, 5 more min to Parker and 6 more min to Thames and you should be able to make up the pts and rebs easily. These are all players that have gradually been adding minutes since they have started to play. Did you know that Parker rebs at the same rate Dalger did? The real loss here is depth. I think we are OK for this game. It is very close....the computer says it could be OT...that would cause us a depth problem. Hopefully, we step up in this game and that won't happen. If we play our game...avoid TOs and make our slash , we should win. Long term, the depth card could be an issue if we lose anyone for an extended period. FT trouble could also be an issue, so less careless fouls going forward. Bottom line...We can withstand the blow of Dalger leaving. We will have an answer on Wed how those extra mins will be used ...Use them wisely and we could win.

General Outlook.... We took a big hit to the report card in the last game (see below)...a reason why we took a whupping at VCU. As a result of the loss we have dropped to C-. Dav comes in with a grade of B- and currently 11th place both in my rankings and in the standings. Why is that important? Because if you are trying to escape the PIG pen that is where you need to go...to the 11th spot (one step at a time). Beating another pen member will not get you out. This game is very winnable . We don't need to play great to win . If we play poorly we lose. Let's take a look at the game Game Preview....Dav key players are Skogman and Huffman. Huffman leads the team in Pts...Asts..Stls..Rebs...Skogman leads the team in Pts (tied)..FG% and Rebs(tied) Dav is worse on Off than the Bills but their D is better than ours. If we can step up our D a bit especially on those 2 players , we should be able to put up a W. Let's take a look at this game's report card.... Report Card.... The card is negative...1 up and 5 down......1 up and 3 dn on Off....None up and 2 dn on D...a big hit to the card .................SLU............Dav................SLU..........................Dav ...........................OFF..........................................DEF............. PPG..........D+..................D+..................D.-...........................B FG%.........C-....................C-...................D-............................C+ 3P%.........A-.....................C-..................D+..........................D+ FT%.........B-....................C-..................................................... Reb..........D.....................C-.....................D...........................C- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FT%......Def....FG%...3P%...PPG Down.........Off....none......Def...FG%...3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...33rd...dn Dav Ast...Huffman...54th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... None Dav....None Keys to the Game.......Stop Skogman and Huffman... We need to beat Dav at the FT line...we need to make some shots...in and out ...their 3P Def is weak...we need to take advantage of it. When Huff or Skog are not in the game we need to outscore Dav. WWN2D2W...Target slash...47/39/75....Hold Dav to 69 pts....Match Dav on TOs AND Rebs....Hold Skogman & Huff to 21pts...Beat Dav on FTM...Out score them from the arc Bottom line....A win would be big...it would get us away from the PIG.

No, the computer only deals with data. ...no judgements or human speculation. For instance , in recent games it has pointed out the discrepancy in FTA. You will note , it didn't access blame...refs, players or coach. It referred to it as an anomaly....something out of the ordinary based on the Bills season averages. Last night in the VCU game the key stat was below average shooting. Sometimes, after I stop typing I think the computer reads the Board in the wee hours. I am sure on some sentient level, it is probably laughing to itself.

You took the words right off my keyboard....You can't shoot , you can't win. Missing the slash cost us 18 pts. On TOs...if we get VCU just to make their normal amount of TOs that is worth another 8 pts. I could go on but that but we have already made up the actual spread. In the words of HOF Coach K..."Next game"

General Outlook.... VCU is a B team...No post season play showing at this time.. ..The Bills meanwhile continue to cling to a C but are still locked in the PIG pen. They need a win to hold onto their grade and climb out of the sty. Game Preview....This is not the same VCU team that you are use to seeing. One of their starters (Jackson) was injured in the last game and is questionable for tonight's game. The computer is estimating that if he doesn't play you can knock off 6 pts from the spread (making it close to even) and 3 rebs. Jackson also led the team in steals. The other factor here is they don't have a lot of depth. If Jackson is missing, it will be a patchwork lineup. In the last game , VCU managed to eke out a 6 pt win against a La Salle team that is worse than SLU. If we have a decent game tonight, we could take this one Let's take a look at this game's report card.... Report Card.... The card is neutral...3 up and 3 down...2 up on Def and 1 up on Off and 2 down on Off and 1 up on Def. .................SLU............VCU................SLU..........................VCU ...........................OFF..........................................DEF............. PPG..........C-..................D+..................D.-...........................B FG%.........C....................C+...................D............................A- 3P%.........A.....................C+..................C-..........................B+ FT%.........C+....................A..................................................... Reb..........D.....................C.....................D...........................A- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....Reb.......Def....FG%...3P% Down.........Off......PPG...3P%.......Def...Reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...31st...up VCU FG%...Lawal...2nd (71.6) Blks...Fermin...39th FT% ...Shulga...64th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... None VCU... Jackson...Jan 19...Back...Questionable Keys to the Game.......VCU turns the ball over (Grade D) we need to pressure them....Don't foul Shulga...he is their FT guy WWN2D2W...Target slash...48/39/74....Hold VCU to 70pts....Beat VCU on TOs by 2.... Rebs....even.....Hold the top 3 scores to 31 ....FTM...even..... Bottom line....Instead of following sheep...let's shear one.

According to that above chart you are referring to, it has Loy 3rd and by that logic there should have been another wide difference in FTAs.... I am showing in that Loy game a swing of only 6 FTA in that game...2 less than normal for the Bills and 4 extra for Loy...well within the normal variance of FTA in a game. That chart says conference only games...I would assume that is based on 3-4 games (small sample size). I just ran the FTR numbers this morning based on the entire season through yesterday ...SLU...24.6 (and 2nd on the A-10 chart above) and Day 14.2...Much closer. Interestingly enough for the season, we give up less FGA than Dayton . Also , we had 66 FGA in the Day game....Day had only 54. I will stick with my original statement, the swing of 24 FTAs was an anomaly that led to the loss of the Day game.

You are correct ...it is confusing . The problem is there are 2 separate issues. When I write a game forecast....I am trying to show the outcome, the spread and What We Need 2 Do 2 Win. In the post game , if we win , I am looking to see what went right...if we lose what went wrong. Sometimes what goes wrong is an anomaly ...a strange occurrence that is out of the ordinary. In yesterday's game there were many factors that contributed to the loss but the one stat that was overwhelming was the FTAs. The Bills had a drop of 67% below normal on FTAs while Day had an increase of 53% above normal... a swing of 24 shots(using both teams numbers) in favor of Day. The 36 shot total is below the combined 40 shots that both teams usually put up. One standard deviation would be a combined swing total of 8-9 shots...there were nearly 3 times that amount in this game. To answer your question about ...Shouldn't they have beaten us by more given the extra opportunities Day had? The answer is yes . Two points here...#1...They would have had more FTM had they shot FTs any where near normal...They were shooting 75.4% coming into that game and had Elvis who was 3rd ITN in FT% at 97.2% and yes even he missed one...they wound up with a dismal 55%....#2...another reason they should have won by more was the sheer volume of FTAs even with their poor FT shooting. BUT, the game is not played in a vacuum. We actually outscored them while the clock was running....We matched them in 3s...both teams had 8....AND we beat them in 2s ...we had four extra 2s (8pts)....Take the 8 extra pts and subtract the 13 extra FTs they made and you have the game winning total of only 5. Bottom line....Had Day had a few less FTs and The Bills a few more the game's FTAs not only would have been closer to normal but the Bills probably would have won. #17 ITN Day had to catch lightning in a bottle to beat the struggling Bills. Perhaps Mar 5th The Bills can turn the tables on them.

This was a game we could have won. Like in most close games there are many factors that you could point to that would change the outcome. When the computer misses big , it usually means something unusual or out of the ordinary has occurred . In this game, there was an anomaly. In fact this is the 2nd time in 3 games this has happened. The Bills lost at the foul line ....No, this has nothing to do with a bad FT% (43% with only 3-7) . The Bills lost because of FTAs. Ten days ago, We lost to GM by 12 pts. In that game , GM had 34 FTAs...15 extra shots...using season average FTAs plus game shooting % this resulted in an extra 12 pts for GM. Meanwhile, The Bills only had 11 shots or 8 shots below normal resulting in 6 less pts than average....Total point swing...18 pts...or a 6 pt win over GM. Fast forward to tonight's game against Day...The Flyers had 29 FTAs....10 more than average resulting in an extra 5 pts(Dayton shot a poor 55%). Meanwhile, The Bills were 14 FTAs below average which cost them 11 pts. Total point swing 16pts or a Bills win by 11 changing nothing else but the FTAs. These FTA swings are the equivalent of The Bills rolling two 12s in three attempts in a crap game. So what does this mean...were the dice loaded or was this some sort of a basketball lightning strike? Here is my take....It doesn't matter....The real take away is we played a 17th ranked team and played them down to the wire and lost by 5 at their place. Six weeks ago we played Utah St which is now ranked at 20th (about the same as Day) and again lost by 5. Bottom line....There is no team that we can not play with. Certainly within the A-10, every team is beatable. home or away. 12 will not keep coming up on the dice....When those other numbers start to roll out The Bills have to be ready to play. If they are ready to play in a consistent (make at least their averages) and mistake free game (keep the TOs low) they will get their share of wins.

So if we shoot 100% from the arc...we win? Even if are 1-1 from the 3pt line. Duly noted.

Ahh...being average and consistent. A little over a year ago ( Dec11, 2022), I started a topic ..."The Average Path to Greatness" ...talking about how if the Bills could just play average(their average) we would win more games...the stats would be the same with more wins. The real underlying issue was consistency. Good offense one night with bad defense and then vice versa the next game. At the time I wrote the post we had just come off 2 straight losses ( Iona & Boise St.)after a 7-2 start to the season. After I posted, we beat a good Drake team and then suffered a crushing loss to SIU-e. I had The Bills as a 16 pt fav in that one...SLU = B+ ...SIU=D+ . That game pretty much killed any post season hopes plus put a damper on the rest of the season. Why do I bring this up now? Because that post and thread from a year ago still apply ....not to mention the years preceding 2022-23. Just play average ball (average Billiken ball on a consistent basis -offense and defense) and we win more games. That applied in the past. it applies in the present and it will apply in the future. The last time we had consistent success (year in and year out ) was during the RM years. There may have been more skilled teams than RM but there were no teams that were more consistent. We have a D rated defense...does that mean we should play to that level? Obviously not. Did you know that on TOs (a key component of defense)we were A rated...at the beginning of the year ...In the last month we are F rated on TOs....A to F in the same season = inconsistency. Bottom line....Play consistently = win consistently....check out my 12/11/22 thread...still relevant today.

General Outlook.... Dayton comes in with an A+ and a lock on a Dance bid at this time...We remain at C. Had we lost the St. J game we would have dropped to C-. The trend is starting to turn up for The Bills ..at least on offense. ...Second report card in a row where offense was up. Defense is holding ...low and steady. I would like to point out a worrisome stat...one that needs to be fixed if we are to make continued progress. ...Opponent TOs...This hasn't been good all season (9.9 /gm= grade F)...I bring it up now because it is getting worse...In the last 3 games our opponents are averaging 6.3 TOs /gm ...3rd worst ITN over the last 3 games. Generally, if you have 10 TOs/gm you have had a pretty good game UNLESS your opponent is only turning over 6...A negative 4 TO spread is unacceptable . We have to start bothering other teams and get that rate up. It looks like we are making more of an effort but so far it hasn't generated better results...Rant over...fix it. While our overall numbers have improved some...we are still in the PIG pen....1st Priority is to get out of the sty. Let's look at this game to see if we can take a step up. Game Preview....At first glance (and 2nd glance) it doesn't look promising. I haven't put up too many spreads where the Bills are down nearly 20 pts. A win over Day would be a true upset...With my numbers you need to beat a team that is a full 2 letters above you to be an upset...This qualifies. In fact to rush the floor you need to beat a top 25 team...Day is currently 18th on the NET...8th on the Wiz rankings. Although no one will be rushing the floor in Day if The Bills pull off an upset. So is all hope lost...heck no...Where there is a will, there is a way. First let me make a couple of points...We have established that Day is a great team..an A+ team...but we have already played another great team ...A+ and on a neutral floor an even spread with Day...Utah St ...We battled them down to the end of the game and with an additional basket near the end could have pulled it out. So we can play with an A+ team. But how can we beat the Flyers ? Did you know that Day only scores 73.4 pts a game... you say, they only give up 64.5 /gm. Did you know that St J has a better D than Day and we scored 88pts against them...Let's look at the defense cards before both teams played the Bills Def............Day........St. J PPG...........A-...........B+ FG%..........B............A+...6th ITN 3P%..........C+...........A- Reb............B- ..........C AND we scored 88 against St. J So what's the point of this long report on a lopsided game.... For 1 thing , this is what happens when the wind chill drops to -18...hmmm same as the spread.... and my evening was canceled by weather . But the main point here is ...play like you did against St. J (with a few more opp TOs) and we can win this game. Is it a long shot? ...Sure ...but so was scoring 88 pts against St. J. Let's take a look at this game's report card.... Report Card.... The card is positive this game with no categories down and 3 up ...all on offense.... .................SLU............Day................SLU..........................Day ...........................OFF..........................................DEF............. PPG..........C....................C-..................D-............................A- FG%.........C....................B+...................D-...........................B 3P%........A+...16th ITN...A+...5th ITN...D+..........................C+ FT%.........C+....................A-..................................................... Reb.........D-.....................D-.....................D+...........................B- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....PPG...3P%...FT%....Def....FG%...none Down.........Off......none....Def....none Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...34th...up Day FT%...Elvis ....3rd (97.2%) 3P%...Brea...44th (48.3%)...Santos ...51st(48.1%) PPG....Holmes...53rd (18.7) Blks.......".....".....28th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... None...Finally Day... Smith....Nov 9....Knee...out for season Padegimes...Jan12...Illness ...questionable Keys to the Game.......Holmes leads the team in PPG...rebs...FG% and blks...stop Holmes ...win the game...also 2 of the hottest shooting 3P teams ITN...which ever team wins this battle will have the upper hand. WWN2D2W...Target slash...50/40/75....Hold Day to 72pts....Match Day on TOs AND Rebs....Keep Brea and Santos under 40% from the arc ....Hold Holmes to 15 pts...no double -doubles for him..... Match team FTM Bottom line.... If we can flood the arc with 3s We can wash away the Day Noah way , you say Then let's make it a 2s day.

It was sort of fun but distracting as a fan. You had to match up 24 game events (plus a free space ) on the card with actual events on the floor. I memorized the card events and checked them off as they happened. But they were a few bumps in the game. I needed a time out by St. J in the first half...I initially missed it as announcer Gus called the St. J TO an official TO. Fortunately, I found that one on the scoreboard. I needed a steal by Hughes...which I located on a live stat sheet(not an obvious steal)...And finally, I had to get an "official scorer" for my "buzzer beater " answer. SLU claimed there was no buzzer beater at the end of the half. I asked them what a buzzer beater was. They said when the buzzer goes off during a shot. I said that happened when the 30 sec clock ran out. They went into a huddle and then gave me a jersey. Soon they will need instant replay for Billiken Bingo.

The last minute change to the spread this morning proved to be prophetic as I was the only forecaster to have The Bills winning the game. And a well deserved win it was. Let's start with the bottom line from above.... Bottom line....This is a winnable game tonight if we don't make mistakes (TOs) and make some shots (the slash).....We did keep the TOs under control. After giving up 16 TOs /gm in each of the last 2 games we only had 7 this game. This is a game changer. This is what we did in the beginning of the season when we were winning games. Target slash...47/39/73...actual slash...46/54/82...we slashed the slash. In the first quarter we were way under on the slash ... 25% FG ...50% FT (5/10)...You have to make shots to win...we did and we did. Stay within 3 on Rebs...St. J 39...The Bills 36...Bingo...btw I won a Bills jersey for winning the Billiken Bingo card...it was all about tracking game stats live ...I didn't even have the computer with me. Keep both Browns under 40% from the arc....They shot 25% (2-8)...Excellent. Finally , a tip o' the cap to Jimerson who tied a career high with seven 3PM shooting 63% from the arc (7-11) and Medley who shot 100% from the FT line(4-4) in the final minute to keep the win in the Bills column. Bottom line...A real team effort with minimal mistakes and good shooting...And the Red Hawks flap away again ...still winless at the Fetz.

Even though you had me on the wrong side of the spread, it is OK. This morning's number actually are showing Bills by 1. This is a result of yesterday's A10 games where all 3 favored teams(which were also the home teams...Loy, GM and Dav) lost. This goes back to my point in the preconference forecast from a couple of weeks ago where I mentioned the operative word for the A10 was parity. Even when the favored teams in the A10 win they are not beating the spreads. The result of all this is the computer is tightening up the spreads. What does this mean for The Bills? It means they have a chance to beat any A10 opponent ...especially at home. The one problem team would be Dayton . Bottom line...This is a winnable game tonight if we don't make mistakes (TOs) and make some shots (the slash)

General Outlook.... According 2 the computer , the A-10 is now a 2 bid conference. I know we have all be come accustom to embracing "Juan" but there is another bid on the horizon. Dayton, of course is leading the pack, and coming in at a 51% chance right now is GM (beat us and you become a contender). On the NIT front ...St. J is showing a 62% chance and UMass a 60% chance for NIT bids. Again a long way to go but that is where we are now. The Bills meanwhile are still wallowing in PIG land. The good news is ...if we beat anybody we will move up quickly. Let's at least get out of the pen. Game Preview....St. J comes in at a B+...we remain at C but the numbers are still weakening . We need a win to stay at C. Grade wise it looks like St. J is the better team . But an important factor here is SOS...St. J = F+....SLU =B. ...This is kind of like a rear view mirror warning ..."objects are closer than they appear" ...in this case St. J is closer than they appear. But with that said the Hawks have some players that can shoot. ...Fleming, Reynolds and X Brown are all listed in the Top 100 (see report card below). They play a tough defense like GM but are not as good on offense as the Patriots. Let's see what the report card looks like.... Report Card.... The card is positive this game with no categories down and 2 up....and believe it or not the 2 categories are on Def. The defensive report card is still dismal but there has been some improvement on opp reb and opp FG %. ...Be thankful for small miracles. ....................SLU............St. J..........SLU..........................St. J ..............................OFF..........................................DEF............. PPG...............C-................B-.................D-............................B+ FG%...............C.................C...................D-...........................A+..6th ITN 3P%...............A-................B+.................D+..........................A- FT%...............C..................C+..................................................... Reb...............D-..................B...................D+............................C OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none....Def....FG%...Reb Down.........Off......none....Def....none Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...40th St. J Asst....Greer...97th FT%...Reynolds...84th Blks...Fleming...92nd 3P%...X Brown...54th (48%) 2P%...Fleming...34th (68%) Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot....no more recent official updates Meadows...Jan 6...Questionable...Head St. J... Lange...Dec 6 ....Out indefinitely ...Concussion Winborne...12/22...Out indef...personal matter Haskins...11/14...out for season...requested red shirt. Keys to the Game....... WWN2D2W...Target slash...47/39/73....Hold St. J to 72pts....Beat St. J on TOs...Stay within 3 on Rebs....Keep both Browns under 40% from the arc....Hold Reynolds, Fleming and Green to 31 pts. Bottom line....If The Bills can keep TOs under control...we can put the Hawks in our rearview mirror.