The Wiz

Yuri adds 11 more assists and brings his total to 803...He has moved up 2 places and is now 33rd on the all time list. Passed... Marc Brown...1988-91...Siena Maurice Watson...2013-17...Creighton

And now it is time to play for the Blizzard and Dilly Bar trophy. General Outlook.... A sweet and valuable win over Dav with a dose of consistency thrown in ...39 pts in each half and good shooting overall. It was a valuable win as it boosted our chances for the double bye and sets the stage for a close out top 4 finish. If we beat DQ, we will be in the catbirds seat . A win will give us a 3 game lead(with the tie breakers) with 4 to play. Any combo of 2 wins by the Bills or 2 losses by the winner of the DQ/ LaS game on Feb 22 will give us a top 4 spot...simplified...we win 2 more after DQ and it's over. Or if the winner of the DQ/ LaS game loses 1 and we win 1 , it's over. Well then, how about this ...just keep winning. Game Preview....This game , numbers wise, has a lot of similarities to the game we just played with Dav. We are still B overall and DQ is B- like Dav. Which in turn leads to a 7 pt spread again. The good news is, overall our offense and defense are better than the Dukes. What can go wrong? DQ is a very good 3P shooting team...Grant is their Jimerson. In addition Gunn can also gun from the arc. If we give them open shots this game could be a lot more exciting than you want it to be. The good news is , while they can shoot from the arc they don't defend very well from the 3P line. Also, TO differential, can bite us , if we don't keep this stat close. Report Card.... Coming into this game we are up in 3 categories (3P% off and def and FT%) down in 1 (PPG off)..We finally made the honor role on offense. Let's look at the report card... ...................SLU......................DQ........................SLU.............................DQ .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B.......................B-.............................C-..................................C+ FG%...............B......................D+..............................A-..................................C- 3P%...............B-.....................B+............................B-.................................D+ FT%...............B-......................D-.................................................................. Reb...............A.......................B............................C......................................F+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....3P%...FT%...Def.....3P% Down.........Off.......PPG....Def....none Top 100 In The Nation SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......33rd all time D1 list Assts/TO ratio...Collins...18th...dn Reb...Okoro...62nd...up Blks...Okoro ...73rd...dn Off Reb...Okoro...32nd ...unch Dou Dou...Collins...50th...up 3P%...Jimerson...53rd...up DQ Stls....Clark...10th Off Reb...Rotroff...91st Asst/TO ratio...Brewer...19th 3P%...Grant ...44th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills....2/8...Thames....Out indefinitely....undisclosed......unspecified issue with no time table to return DQ... 1/5...Barba...out for season ...hand surgery Keys to the game.. . The game will be won (or lost) on the arc....If the Bills match them at the 3P line , then advantage SLU as we should be able to take them inside the arc.... Who ever Clark is guarding better protect the ball.... Stay out of foul trouble. DQ is not a good FT shooting team EXCEPT Grant...don't foul him. WWN2D2W...Make the slash...46/35/75...Hold Grant and Clark to a combined 22pts which should allow us to keep DQ under 70 pts....try to have no more than 1 TO more than DQ...Beat them on the boards by 5........Don't give them free pts by fouling Grant Bottom line....Let's take the fight to them and make them put up their Dukes....and then say BYE BYE

This was a sweet win...we finally put IT together...The IT being consistency. What does consistency look like?...1st half 39pts...2nd half 39pts. Let's see what happened...bolded statements from above... Make the slash...47/37/77...Actual 46/43/88...this was a hit and big reason why we made and exceeded the spread...and we did this after a weak start Hold their top 4 scorers to a combined 50pts...Actual 52pts...part of this equation was to hold Mennenga and Loyer to 25 pts which is what they scored...another hit...which should allow us to keep Dav under 70. We did...This is a key stat because it is our weakest grade on the report card...though improving...we need to continue to keep opp under 70/gm. going forward. Most importantly we need to play 2 good halves...we did...see opening sentence of this post try to have no more than 3 TOs more than Dav...we did...only 1 more...another key stat as Dav is a low TO team and we got them to 12 which was huge. Beat them on the boards by 9...we beat them by 4 but no harm done because of the next stat.... score at least 8 fast break pts...actual 16pts...we sped them up and they couldn't turn it into a chess match Don't give them free pts by fouling Loyer or Skogman...they were 8-8...but again no harm...Skog only had 2 and Loyer who had 6 FTM didn't do much other damage as his shooting line was 1-8...2 shooting pts for the night...excellent. Bottom line....If we can match them on TOs and shoot at least the slash. we could break this open....We did , we did and we did... 40 good minutes is what we need, it would put us closer to a double bye seed......we did get 40 good min and we are closer to the double bye...a win over DQ in the next game will put us very close to the double bye...we would then have a 3 game lead (due to the tie breaker) with 4 to play...with either LaS or Duq as a long shot to catch us...Sat game against DQ is big.

I heard part of tonight's Coach's Show... Rammer asked him what the problem was...CF said we can shoot , we can score, we can defend , we can rebound. He said the problem was consistency.. If we could have been more consistent, we would have more wins. Hmmm, that sounded familiar to me. I wonder if he reads my posts.

Yuri adds 6 more assists and brings his total to 792...He has moved up 1 place and is now 35th on the all time list. Passed... Kay Felder....2014-16...Oakland

General Outlook....Yesterday's loss to Day was painful but not unexpected. The computer not only said we were going to lose but had been looking at this game as a loss from the start of the season. Those sub sections in earlier threads when it was forecasting 17 games forward and the first 11 games forward in conference.. both sets of numbers were targeting the Day game...not just as a loss but as a turning point in the schedule...ie the schedule becomes more difficult. The trick was to go into yesterday's game in 1st place...which we did ...3 losses tied on the lost side for 1st. Looking forward for the remainder of the regular season the program is picking us to finish 3rd. Last night's game was a good microcosm of the season. The only thing that has been consistent all season is inconsistency. Here is an interesting set of numbers... 1st half....SLU...50/56/33 (1-3)..................Dav...63/46/71 (5-7) 2nd half...SLU...24/0/100 (10-10)..............Dav...32/33/63 (12-19) Both teams went down drastically in the 2nd half (we went down more) ...we even lost the FT category even though we were perfect because they had so many more FTs. The point is.. the inconsistency in this game is a pattern that has gone on all season from game to game ...from half to half...I wrote about this in a thread 2 months ago. The thread was titled Average Path to Greatness on Dec 11th. ..The Average Path to Greatness (if you can't click on it ...you can hover your mouse over it and it will appear)...The only addition I would make is to say, had we been able to just play average...the Billiken average...we would be in 1st place now all by ourselves. ...BTW, Day has the same problem with inconsistency and I am sure their fans are going through the same hand wringing we are. BTW #2...The computer has us favored to win the next game against Day on Mar 3. Let's look at the game coming up with Dav Game Outlook...Dav is a B- team...we remain at B. TOs could be an issue...not that we will turn it over but that they protect the ball well. Last time we played them they had only 4 TOs...so when we have 11 there is a huge gap. An ideal game for them is 65 pts or less. We need to speed them up. No chess matches. Most importantly we need to play 2 good halves...not a good one and a bad one. We are the better team...we just need to show it. Report Card.... 1 category down..PPG-Off. ..... Since we last played Dav we are also down in PPG- Off....and Reb- Off & Def....we are up in 3P Def. ...Dav meanwhile, is up in 3P%-Off although they are still poor 3P shooters overall (D+). They are also up in 3P% Def. On the downside, they are giving up more pts/gm and their FG% Def has also dropped. Let's look at the report card... ...................SLU......................Dav........................SLU.............................Dav .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B+.....................C-............................C-..................................C FG%...............B.......................C..............................A-..................................C- 3P%...............C+.....................D+............................C+.................................B+ FT%...............B-......................B.................................................................. Reb...............A.......................D-............................C....................................D- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none....Def.....none Down.........Off.......PPG....Def....none Top 100 In The Nation SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......35th all time D1 list Assts/TO ratio...Collins...16th...up Reb...Okoro...63rd...dn Blks...Okoro ...72nd...dn Off Reb...Okoro...32nd ...dn Dou Dou...Collins...58th...dn 3PM...Jimerson...89th...dn Dav FT%...Loyer...21st...up...Skogman...83rd...dn Assts...Loyer...74th...dn Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills....2/8...Thames....Out indefinitely....undisclosed......unspecified issue with no time table to return Dav...none Keys to the game....Rebound....Dav is not a good reb team ....try to get the fast break going...this will not only get us some points but shake their rhythm up. Mennenga is their main man...he can shoot from anywhere and will if you let him. Outside of him, Loyer is their go to guard. They have 2 other guards if Loyer can't shoot....Watson and Huffman both can do some damage. Stay out of foul trouble. WWN2D2W...Make the slash...47/37/77...Hold their top 4 scorers to a combined 50pts which should allow us to keep Dav under 70 pts....try to have no more than 3 TOs more than Dav...Beat them on the boards by 9....score at least 8 fast break pts....Don't give them free pts by fouling Loyer or Skogman. Bottom line....If we can match them on TOs and shoot at least the slash. we could break this open....40 good minutes is what we need, it would put us closer to a double bye seed.

The computer picked Day to win, that's why this one would have been nice to win. An unexpected win , and we would have picked up some ground on the NET. But unfortunately , the Bills followed the computer script. Let's see what happened... bolded text from the above post. Make the slash...47/40/75...38/33/85....we missed 1 extra 3 and 4 extra 2s=11pts ...this alone almost beats the entire margin besides exceeding the spread. Our FG% was lowest of all the conference games....Even the FTs didn't work out ...while we shot great from the line, Day had twice as many FTA...26 vs 13...that is quite a difference, a difference that would be hard to make up...that was good for another extra 8 pts....so the slash line alone cost us 19 pts. In the 1st half we shot an amazing 56% from the arc...2nd half 0%...1st half FG%...50%...2nd half a dismal 24%....total pts for the 2nd half 22pts...you aren't going to win many games with 22 pts in a half. These 2 halves were like Jekyll and Hyde. A normal average Bills half would have yielded 2 more 3s and 4 more 2s= 14 pts. Hold their top 2 guys Holmes and Camara to 25 pts ...they had 32 pts...that is the difference in the extra spread. beat them on TOs by 1...we did with an outstanding 8 vs 9...this was one of the few bright spots. Out rebound them by 3....This was a miss..they out rebounded us by 5. Bottom line...Day had a good game but it didn't matter...had we just had a normal Bills 2nd half (14 more pts), we would have beat them at their place. We needed to play 40 min of bball instead of 20. I guess we owe them some payback when they get here.

It seems some fans like to use trends....As I stated earlier , I like larger data samples. I use trends in conjunction with the larger data sets but trend lines are always a subset. So with that in mind, let's look at some Day trends... Last 6 games Day is 3-3...the losses have all been away...but even the wins were shaky...one against VCU ...needed a missed FT shot by VCU with 4 sec left to gain the win... and also an overtime win against bottom feeder Loy-Chi. Looking at stats over the last 3 games...Day has an unimpressive slash of 44/30/68....compared with the conf 49/39/70...compared with the overall..47/ 34/70 So what does all this mean?...Day started out average... improved as conference started and recently has slipped back....But what do the trends mean?...not much....It shows that Day is an inconsistent team...Or as Forrest Gump said...Life is like a box of chocolates ...you never know what your going to get. That sums up the Day season so far. The reason that the computer is picking Day is because of the home field venue....Day has one of the best home field advantages in the A-10.... Play this game at the Fetz and we are favored....which is why you need to mark Mar 3 down on your calendar. If the Bills play their game , they can win this contest.

I have seen the conference stats...I chose to go with the whole season rather than conference only stats....larger sample sizes are better when used for forecasting. If I start looking at recent shooting trends , I might be tempted to look at the last 3 games where Day shot 21-69 for 30.4% and that wouldn't be good. You don't want to be like those investment advisors who just pick out the best time periods to show great returns. No, I think it is best to stick with the larger sample size, especially given Day inconsistent 3P shooting over the season. In addition to using the more inclusive data, with The Bills above average 3P defense, we should be able to keep Day around six 3PM. As I said in opening post, we need to keep Holmes and Camara under control and we will have a chance to win..... Btw, thanks for the Day stats.

I would take my chances letting Dayton shoot 3s...For the year Day is 33.5%...226th ITN...............in 2P%, Day is 54.6%, (30th ITN) many close in......33.5% x1.5= 50.25%.....54.6% is greater than 50.25%...They come out ahead on a risk reward basis by taking 2s.... In addition, we are B rated in terms of 3P defense...As I said above, the best strategy is to have them shoot deep 2s.

Anything we can do to keep them away from the basket would help. As good as they are on defense , they have trouble shooting unless they are close to the basket. If Majerus was reading this thread , he would say...make them shoot deep 2s. The farther from the basket the better.

Nothing on the official injury list

We have faced some good defenses this year. I would say the best we have seen so far is Auburn. Here is how that shakes out. Defense ........................Auburn.........................................Day PPG..................A-.................................................A+..15th ITN FG%.................A+..9th ITN.................................A+...12th ITN 3P%.................A+...4thITN.................................A+....9th ITN Reb..................C..................................................A+....14th ITN So I will stick with my original statement...this is the best defense we will see this year. But again, remember, Day is a team that lost to RI and GW back to back. And yes , I do know that we are playing at Day and Day is a difficult venue. On the other hand , RI and GW are the not the A10 cream of the crop. Beating them won't be easy but it can be done.

Game Outlook... Just a left over stat from the VCU game written after the Bills/VCU contest for your consideration... Baldwin had a season stopper game...80/80/80/100 (the extra slash is the 2P category). ...37pts with at least 9 pts in each category.... 9 consecutive FTM...12pts from 3...16 pts from 2. We will play VCU again... maybe twice more...Baldwin will not have a game like that again, against us or anyone else. In the first game since our meeting with them , Baldwin's slash last night with Day was...29% (6-15) / 43% (6-14 / 0% (0-7) / 100% (2-2) . While this stat shows, that Baldwin's outbreak against us was an anomaly, there is a much more important point , coming out of the VCU/Day game last night. Baldwin and VCU shot poorly and yet that game came down to the final seconds. As you will see in the report card below, Dayton has a stellar defense....one of the best in the country...a defense that should have put VCU away when combined with VCU's weak shooting numbers. Dayton does have an Achilles heel. They turn the ball over. Last night , they turned it over 17 times. It allowed VCU to stay in the game till the very end. Getting other teams to turn it over isn't our strong suit , but the Bills did force 14 TOs against Rhody. Will they do that against Dayton? If we do, it would be a step toward victory. Dayton will be the best defense we face this year. It is going to be tough BUT we can do it...just remember this...RI just beat them recently. That's all you need to know. General Outlook.... At the beginning of conference play , I talked about the 11...the first 11 games of the season. In order for us to have a successful season we needed to do well during these games. The computer forecasted we would be favored in all of them and thought we would win between 7 and 9 games...we came in at 8...More importantly, was to become positioned for the end of the season. Becoming positioned meant finishing 1st after 11 games...which we have done now that we are tied for 1st on the lost side. As of today the computer is projecting us to finish 3rd in the A10. ..double bye...followed by games with VCU and Dayton. While all the games are important from here on out there is one game that can change the standings and propel us into a possible 1st place finish ...the game against VCU on Feb 28. No one said it was going to be easy but there still is a path to The Dance....A win in this game would be a big deal and make our path easier. For the NET watchers, a win would cause a decent move up in the rankings. Let's take it one game at a time. Report Card.... 1 category up( opp Rebs) .....1 category down (3P Def ). Another clean Card (no Ds or Fs). We are close to the honor roll on offense (B's or higher) if we can continue to shoot at the same 3P rate we have been, we can make it. Let's look at the report card... ...................SLU......................Day........................SLU.............................Day .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B....................D+..............................C-..................................A+...16th ITN FG%...............B....................B+..............................A-..................................A+...13th ITN 3P%...............C+..................D+.............................B-..................................A+...9th ITN FT%...............B-...................D+.................................................................. Reb...............A.....................B...............................C+....................................A+...14th ITN OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none....Def....Opp rebs Down.........Off......none...Def....3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......36th all time D1 list...1st all time A10 Assts/TO ratio...Collins...17th...dn Reb...Okoro...53rd...dn Blks...Okoro ...65th...up Off Reb...Okoro...24th ...dn Dou Dou...Collins...56th...dn 3PM....Jimerson...80th DAY PPG....Holmes...80th FG%...Holmes...27th Blks...Holmes...32nd Dou Dou...Holmes...13th Off Reb....Holmes...75th Rebs...Camara...35th...Holmes...100 Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills....2/8..Thames....Out indefinitely...undisclosed.....No timetable for return DAY...2/7...Smith...Ques...ankle...uncertain if he will be able to play Fri Keys to the game.... Stopping Holmes and Camara....as you can see by the report card Holmes is their main man. But if you want to win , you have to stop both... Dayton can make shots close to the basket...every step back from the basket their percentages drop quickly. Make them shoot from as far away as possible on every shot. ...Protect the ball. TO differential will be important ..No careless passes.. bother them as much as possible . And finally make some shots...we have an edge on offense , hopefully we will take advantage of it. WWN2D2W...Make the slash...47/40/75...Hold their top 2 guys Holmes and Camara to 25 pts combined.....beat them on TOs by 1...Out rebound them by 3. Bottom line....Dayton is weak offense (except close in), and strong defense.... 2 great players...This game will be about the unstoppable force (the Bills when they are on ) vs the immovable object( Dayton when they don't turn the ball over)...If The Bills play smart , they will Fly high.

Yuri adds 8 more assists and brings his total to 786...He has moved up 5 places and is now 36th on the all time list...Yuri becomes the career assist leader in the A10 passing Gilyard... He is currently 17th ITN in assist/TO ratio. Passed... Jacob Gilyard ...2018-22...Richmond Brandon Granville...1999-2002...USC Brevin Knight...1994-97...Stanford Brandin Knight...2000-03...Pitt Jon Elmore...2016-19...Marshall Point of clarification...Further up the list you will eventually see Chaz Williams from UMass on the list. Even though he has more assists than Yuri on the all time list at this time, he doesn't have more A10 assists as his freshman year was played at Hofstra.

Gives true meaning to the phrase...student athlete.

Corrected it...I turned the numbers over(reversed them...a TO for The Wiz)(Late game...Late night)...but my final point is even more valid...we were close enough in TOs to win but it cost us the spread. Going from 2 TOs over to 2 under would have added 9 pts to the spread and we win by 14 instead of 5 and get some NET help. But the win was important too ...tied for 1st again on the lost side.

First of all ...what a great and gutsy shot by Jimerson at the end for the game winner....especially with his earlier struggles from the arc....for the night 55% from 3...good time to heat up....Also nice shooting by Hargrove and Okoro ...both hitting a FG% of 63% ...Hargrove misses a dou dou by 1 reb...and finally ...Yuri breaks the A10 record for career assists....Nice game all around ...sloppy but nice We finally beat a team called the Rams. We won because we pretty much did what we were supposed to do....Let's call this a nice average game as you will see by the numbers Let's take a quick look at the numbers...bolded from the original post. Make the slash.........................46/35/75...almost.... 44/40/67...missed one 2 and 2 FTs=4pts more.... .................................btw take a look at the RI slash......44/42/63...another reason the game was close was they shot 3s way over their average...Stewart who only had four 3s in 17 games and shooting 19% from the arc and 1.4pts /gm goes 3-3 from the arc and scores 11pts...another guy who has a career night against us. beat them on TOs by 2....Lost by 2 but close enough to win the game but not make the spread Out rebound them...Bingo again...we did by 1...you will note, there was no number on the rebs ...we were supposed to beat them by 1 70 pts against us...71 close enough No second chances for RI missed shots...only 6 pts ...this was good...we had 11pts.... a game difference maker Bother them and they will turn the ball over...we did and they did...16 times Hold their top 2 guys Leggett and Freeman to 25 pts combined...this was a miss but not because we didn't guard them...they just took lots of shots...they only had a FG% of 38%...but they exceeded the pt target because they took 26 shots....not to mention Leggett had 14 FTAs So nice win ...but why did we miss the spread if most of the numbers came in right? Too many TOs. I mentioned above we made the TO differential of 2 ..which is what we needed to do to win....but we still turned the ball over too many times...Pts off TOs by RI 24 pts...again too many....we had 16 TOs...had we had 4 less the spread would have widened by 9 pts ...we win by 14 and we make the spread . You may ask , what difference does this make...we won. True, but this stat is mainly for the NET watchers. Want to move up the NET...beat the spread. On to Dayton.....

I am sure as we continue to climb the list , you will recognize more.

I thought for sure , you would have heard of Greivus from your couch in Md. He was also big in the Festivus movement. He aired many of his grievances there.

Yuri adds 11 more assists and brings his total to 778...He has moved up 8 places and is now 41st on the all time list... Tied... Jeff Timberlake...1986-89...Boston U Passed... Monte Morris...2014-17...Iowa St. Mathew Dellavedova....2010-13...St. Mary's...Calif Greivus Vasquez...2007-10...Md Juan'ya Green...2012-16...Hofstra Grayson Murphy...2018-22...Belmont Matt Dickel...1997-2000...UNLV

There are a few parts to your question...Let's take them piece by piece. Predictions are based on past performances, tendencies. When individuals/teams vary from those tendencies, predictions will have to be off. Correct? Well, kind of. At the beginning of the season before any games are played , I use a Bayesian predictive model without any real data...As you know , I try to be accountable for what I write and always go over the numbers after the fact. I am always surprised how close this part of the model is at the end of the season. As the season goes on, I blend in real data from real games. After the 8th game of the season, the model is fairly dependent on the real data with some Bayesian left in for predictive purposes for the rest of the season. It seems to me this year’s team seems to have more variability than past years. I think the key word here is variability and how we use it. Variability has 2 factors which are tied to gather. The first is the strength of the team...how good are they compared to the rest of the A10?...or the rest of all D1? The second is how does that overall ranking affect the variability of the outcomes. The 2 are inversely related. When there is lots of variability on the ranking the variability on the outcome drops and when the variability on the ranking of the teams drop the variability of the outcome goes up. I measure the ranking ( how good is the team overall compared to all other D1 teams) using the grading system. Let's look at an example...Let's assume that all 15 teams were the same ranking / grade. Every time teams played ...the predicted outcome would always be the same...50-50. The variability in the ranking is low (All the same) ...the out come (who wins or loses) is high (50% every game). Now let's now increase the variability of the teams...a few A's, a few F's and the rest of the teams scattered throughout B-D with no duplicates. This is not that different from the A10 during the Majerus years...lots of variability on ranking. As a result , less variability on outcome. When SLU played Fordham , you knew who was going to win. More variability in ranking = more accurate outcome. Your predictions seem to be ‘off’ more than usual. What I do is based on probability. A quote from one of my favorite philosophers ...Rene Descartes..."When it is not in our power to follow what is true, we ought to follow what is most probable."...1637. When the computer predicts it is predicting what is most probable. My contention is that the A10 is closer to parity now than in past years... much like the first example in the variability paragraph above. There are no A teams or F teams in the A10 now. Highest ranked teams are B+...Lowest D+...most jammed into the C's. If we played VCU 10 times this year ...we would win 4-6 of those games. My thoughts are that the portal and NIL are driving the parity train. Those that know how to maneuver in this world will do better but not too much better because those 2 forces will continue to push teams back to parity. So what is the problem right now?.. why is everyone so disappointed? High expectations...probably too high. In the preseason outlook, I showed us as a B+ team ...with a range of B- to A. The preconference forecast with a lot more data...still showed us at B+ with a range of B to A-...we are at B right now. If you asked the computer... is it way off? , it would answer no...read the forecasts. As far as taking out the wrath on the computer , it is a matter of when bad news shows up ... kill the messenger. (HAL will tell you that is not a good idea) Tying the message and probability together...imagine if you and I went to the Casino and we took the Board along to watch. You ask the computer which number has the best chance to win...it says 7... a 6 to 1 shot. You ask which number is the worst ...the answer is 12 or2...36 to 1 shot for either number. You put your money on 7 ...then you roll the dice and 12 comes up....Immediately , all MBMs at the table take out their phone ( no phone bans at the OZ Casino) and write the message ..."the computer is way off". On the next roll , you roll 12 again...all MBMs post on the Board again, get over here quick , ignore the computer , we have a sure thing ...bring lots of money. An example of realty only being as good as your last roll...To see this in action, go to the GDT when the game is live. Is it possible to compare this year’s version of Team Blue with, say, the last 5 year’s performances? Looking back, the raw numbers have declined...we are not as good as the teams back then BUT I grade on the curve. So based on grades, we are about the same as we always have been (relatively speaking) using the curve. The A10, the same...Their raw numbers are not as good either but again grading on the curve the A10 is about the same...they are usually 9-12 in conf rankings ...they are currently at 12 ...lower end but still within the norm. Now @Bay Area Billiken will like this next statement. With teams and conferences moving more toward the middle(parity) that leaves more at large bids up at the top of the curve(P5). Hope this long winded response answered your questions...Now let's beat the Rams...3rd time is a charm (as in 3rd Ram team in a row)

Just a few extra notes on the VCU game...Baldwin had a season stopper game...80/80/80/100 (the extra slash is the 2P category). ...37pts with at least 9 pts in each category.... 9 consecutive FTM...12pts from 3...16 pts from 2. We will play VCU again... maybe twice more...Baldwin will not have a game like that again, against us or anyone else. And yet as extraordinary as it was, we still had a chance to win...In the first 15 min of the 2nd half , the lead never varied by more than 3 pts off of even..i.e. the Bills neither lead nor trailed by more than 3pts. With 5 min left, VCU moved to 5pts ahead...but again with less than 3 mins to go in the game SLU trailed by 3 again. I think if you asked our team if they could beat these guys, the answer would be yes. Well, they will have 1 or 2 more chances.. and the ACE may not be the high card next time. Game Outlook...On to Rhody...The Bills have dropped to a B team from B+ where we have been most of the season....The question for this game is ....Is RI a bad team? No...they are a C team. In the D1 universe they would be considered an average team. The better question would be ...Is RI a bad offensive team...the answer is a resounding yes....they are an offensive team (not in a good way) on offense. You can see the details in the report card below. And as bad as it looks, it is even worse as they have lost at least 1 maybe 2 key players( see injury report below)....In addition , they don't protect the ball very well...F+. Now it is time for the warning label... They can and do play defense...not great but above average. Also while they have horrific shooting...they can make FTs as well as rebound...lots of chances to rebound when you are missing shots. One last caveat which will bring things into perspective...they beat Dayton. General Outlook....The computer still shows us with an excellent chance to be a top 4 A10 finisher (double bye) And we are only 1 game out of 1st on the lost side. Look at it like a baseball fan would. If the Cardinals were 1 game out on the lost side with 8 games to play and no real dominant teams in the Central Division , Cardinal fans would be excited coming down the stretch. Yes, it is a disappointment for Bills fans so far , due to high expectations....but that still doesn't change the facts...a top 4 finish in the A10, very probable plus 1 game out of first on the lost side with 8 games to play. Report Card.... 2 categories up ....on both arcs offense and defense......2 categories down (FTs and Tot rebs). Another clean Card (no Ds or Fs)...as long as we have a "clean Card " we will be favored in most of the rest of the games. If Rhody scores more than 70 pts against us then we may lose our "clean" card status as well as the Bills being favored in most future games...play defense. Let's look at the report card... ...................SLU......................RI........................SLU.............................RI .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B....................D-..............................C-..................................C FG%...............B....................F-......15th WITN........A-.................................B- 3P%...............C+..................F.................................B..................................B- FT%...............B-...................B.................................................................. Reb...............A.....................A-...............................C....................................D OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....3P%....Def.....3P% Down.........Off.....PPG...FT%....Def....none Top 100 In The Nation SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......41st all time D1 list Assts/TO ratio...Collins...8th...up Reb...Okoro...52nd...dn Blks...Okoro ...68th...dn Off Reb...Okoro...24th ...dn Dou Dou...Collins...49th...unch RI none Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills....2/3..Thames....Questionable...undisclosed......unspecified issue makes it uncertain if he will be able to play on Tues RI...2/2...Carey...ankle...Questionable...uncertain if he will be ready to play on Tues .......1/5...Bilau...knee surgery...out for season Keys to the game.... No second chances for RI missed shots...we don't need to help them. Bother them and they will turn the ball over. Should be a lot of opportunities to score in close...take advantage of them. Play up tempo..they will want to play slow. Make some shots. WWN2D2W...Make the slash...46/35/75...Hold their top 2 guys Leggett and Freeman to 25 pts combined.....beat them on TOs by 2...Out rebound them Bottom line....If the Bills play their game, they will be on the Rhode to victory.

Just an observation....Forrester had a pretty good game tonight......12pts...4 rebs...3 assts...2 blks all in 20 min ...by coincidence Okoro also had 20 min...the coincidence being they both had exactly 20 min...Okoro's totals were...4pts..5 rebs..0 assts..0 blks...this not a knock on Okoro, a fine player, but to point out that Forrester was a better matchup against VCU. With 9 min 32 sec left in the game Forrester picked up his 4th foul and came out of the game. I understand why he came out of the game. But what I don't understand is why we never saw him again. I thought with about 6 min left in the game, he should have come back in and played until the end or until he fouls out. If he fouls out , you can still put Okoro in. I thought we could use the extra scoring punch at the end plus any additional blks or assists would have been a bonus. Just my observation. In terms of what happened...I wrote a paragraph in the original post of this thread on real TO math which turned out to be very apropos...here is an excerpt from that paragraph.....bolded means from the original post. This game will be about protecting the ball ...whoever does the best job of it will win....A quick note here...the inability to generate TOs in the preceding games has been costly. It is not just the stat of "pts off TOs" but the loss of an offensive opportunity on a TO. We have 37 more TOs than our opponents. I have seen it reported in the press that we have given up an extra 46 pts on "pts off TOs". But it is worse than that. Here is the real TO math....generally when you turn the ball over a team scores 1 1/4 pts (the Bills are on target with that number)....in addition you give up 0.93 pts in a lost scoring opportunity....so every extra TO actual costs you about 2.2 pts... So if you do the math...we out turnovered them 14-10...take those 4 extra TOs x2.2pts=8.8pts ...the margin of defeat. The shame of it was the slash was pretty good ...we were only off by 1 pt (FTs)..48/40/63 Some good shooting numbers not only by Forrester...but by Jimerson and Perkins too. Of course there was the career night by Baldwin...37pts...and an unbelievable slash...80/80/100...12-15 / 4-5 / 9-9 And yet even with his dominant night we could have won.... And again this was the key line from the original post...This game will be about protecting the ball ...whoever does the best job of it will win....we didn't and we didn't...we didn't do the best job of protecting the ball and we didn't win.

General Outlook...Take care of business on Friday and things will fall into place. Friday will be about who wants the game more. The team that comes to play will win. The computer thinks that team will be the Bills. But this game will not be a gimme....we will have to take it ......to them. Game Outlook...Both teams come in at B+. VCU wins a squeaker on Tues as Dav misses the tying FT with 4 sec left in the game. It is time for a little home cooking. Here is the outlook.... It's all about the Ts...as in turnovers...here is the summary .....Turnover grades... VCU ...F+..................The Bills...B .....Opponent TO grades VCU....A+..6th ITN....The Bills...F-...17th WITN This game will be about protecting the ball ...whoever does the best job of it will win....A quick note here...the inability to generate TOs in the preceding games has been costly. It is not just the stat of "pts off TOs" but the loss of an offensive opportunity on a TO. We have 37 more TOs than our opponents. I have seen it reported in the press that we have given up an extra 46 pts on "pts off TOs". But it is worse than that. Here is the real TO math....generally when you turn the ball over a team scores 1 1/4 pts (the Bills are on target with that number)....in addition you give up 0.93 pts in a lost scoring opportunity....so every extra TO actual costs you about 2.2 pts...For the Bills it works out to almost 4 pts /gm. To put that into context...it is like the Bills have no home field advantage and on away games the home team has a double home court advantage. We have won 15 games with that anchor on our ankle. All we have to do is match the other team's TOs and we would be very difficult to beat. This would be a good game to start that trend. But what about the fact that the Rams are good at taking the ball away...VCU is also not good at protecting the ball...take advantage of that. Report Card.... 2 categories up ....3 down. Another clean Card (no Ds or Fs)...as long as we have a "clean Card " we will be favored in most of the rest of the games. Let's look at the report card... ...................SLU......................VCU........................SLU.............................VCU .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B+....................C-............................C-..................................A FG%...............B.....................B-..............................A-.................................B 3P%...............C.....................C...............................B-.................................C+ FT%...............B......................C-.................................................................. Reb...............A+..12th ITN....D-...............................C....................................B- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FT%....Def.....3P% Down.........Off.....FG%...3P%....Def....Reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......48th all time D1 list Assts/TO ratio...Collins...9th...up Reb...Okoro...46th...up Blks...Okoro ...60th...unch Off Reb...Okoro...18th ...up Dou Dou...Collins...49th...dn...Okoro...91st...up VCU Assts...Baldwin...8th Stls....Baldwin...22nd Blks...Deloach...88th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills....1/31..Thames....Questionable...undisclosed......unspecified issue makes it uncertain if he will be able to play on Fri VCU..none Keys to the game.... Did you not see the part about TOs up above...in addition we need to shoot better as in the 6 games before Fham...particularly from the arc....Rebound on both ends. Baldwin is their steals and assist guy (he can score too)...Johns is their 2pt guy...Nunn is their 3 pt guy...Deloach is their blk and reb guy...We are the better team especially on offense ...let's show it WWN2D2W...Make the slash...46/35/75...Hold their top 5 guys to 50 pts.....Match them on TOs...Out rebound them by 8 Bottom line....Let's TURNOVER a new leaf and beat them at their own game....Weather alert ...The blizzard is coming.