The Wiz

You are correct. Win probability 37%. Sorry about that.

nm

UD will probably be favored by a small margin over the Bills unless they get blown out (more than 12) by GW on Wed. I think it works to our advantage to have them playing a tough game @ GW right before our game. Situation is similar to the 2 Xavier games. Even if UD is favored we will be in a position to win.

nm

Xavier by 8 over GW Win probability 78%

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I think one of the reasons St. Joe is still favored over us is the difficulty of schedule. While we have played one of the toughest schedules (currently 28th), St. Joe has played an even tougher schedule (currently 2nd) thereby giving them a slight edge over us.

Hopefully our momentum and new found confidence will overcome the spread and take us to victory. Dice equiv= The Bills rolling a 6, 7, or 8 (approx)

No question about it-- the Bills definitely rolled a 3 and pulled off a major upset. As I stated in a post above, in addition to the upset itself it could turn the season around for the Bills. The one thing the numbers can't address is a mind set change. If they realize that this was their toughest game, good thinga could happen. With the idea that there is no one left on the schedule we can't beat, they could start a streak similar to one after they beat L'ville a few years ago. They need to keep focused and healthy. Go Bills !!

Nope. It's a hobby.

That SIU game was early in the season, so I thought maybe it was one of those aberrations. The 2 SIU losses were both in Alaska ( and also early). Those long trips really mess up teams. (remember Bills in Hawaii) In any case, SIU has turned out to be a pretty good team and if we played them today they would probably still be favored. Discounting the early Alaska losses, SIU has lost to N Ia, MSU & us. I think that puts us ib a little better light and counts as a mini upset.

Not as well. Usually by the time you finish the OOC schedule, there is enough data to be pretty accurate. By the end of the season, the program can be around 90% (which means in the begining it can be a struggle to hit 70%) One advantage you pointed out earlier, while there is not much data at the start, many teams play patsies, which makes it easier to predict the winner. It can be difficult to pin down the point spreads on those earlier games. BTW, my biggest miss this year (so far) with SLU(meaning an upset) was the SIU game with the Salukis favored to win. That was the first indication we would be able to play with the Zags & GW. Needless to say a win tonight would not only be a major upset but turn the season around. Go Bills !!

81%= game winner. Mine uses point margins similar to Pomeroy. How does my program differ from Pomeroy? From what I understand of Pomeroy his program figures point margins only and does not give any weight to wins or losses. Mine does. Also , I believe his program puts a cap on the point margins. Mine uses a diminishing returns weighting. Meaning, no matter how big the margin there is some factor still figured in though to a lesser extent. With Pomeroy a 15 or 25 point margin might carry the same value.

The point spread I use is a handicapping program which currently is about 81% correct. After the point spread is calculated (using past game data, home/away bias etc) it then translates the spread into a win probability-- for example a 55% wp means if the Bills played 100 games they would win 55. As you can see, with a 17 point spread and a 6 % wp we are a long shot and X (as you can read elsehere on this board) is a very good team. The 6% chance of winning is the same as picking up a pair of dice and rolling a 3. PS--Your Illini are favored by 15 over Minn. Win prop 92% Minn. chances of winning --same as rolling a 4.

"The probable is usually what happens." ---Aristotle

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I thought the percentage (54) was high given a 1 pt spread.

No --Home and away

In additiion to the point spread, I have also calculated a probability percentage in an effort to make the point spread more meaningful. In this example, if the Bills played U Mass 1000 times they would win 543 times.

nm

.....usually gets better as year goes on and their is more data.

about 73%

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