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The Wiz

RI over The Bills by 2

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The spread variable in this game is 1-3 pts in favor of RI... a very close game.

I could have titled this thread ...The return of Pogo......because again we are playing RI ...a mirror image of ourselves....no offense ...good defense.

Let's look at 2 report cards this time ....The first is from a month ago when we faced RI and the 2nd will be from today

Jan. 1

...............................SLU..............................RI.............................................SLU...................................RI

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................D-.................................D..................................................A..................................B+

FG%..........................D-................................F+.................................................B+.................................B+

3P%..........................D..................................F-  4th worst ITN.........................A-.................................A+... 14th ITN...

FT%...........................F-....6th worst ITN......D+.........................................................................................

Reb............................A-................................A-..................................................B-...................................C-

 

Top 100 ITN

STLS....Goodwin ...28th 

BLKS....Gordon.......75th 

REBS....Langevine...17th

 

And Feb 1....

 

...............................SLU..............................RI.............................................SLU...................................RI

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................F+.................................D..................................................A..................................B+

FG%..........................F+................................D+.................................................A-.................................B

3P%..........................F..................................F-  7th worst ITN.........................A.................................A-.

FT%...........................F-....8th worst ITN......D.........................................................................................

Reb............................A................................B+.................................................B...................................C+

 

Top 100 ITN

STLS....Goodwin ...29th 

Rebs....French.......66th 

.............Langevine...22th

Report comparison....SLU...Off worse....Def better...Reb ...better......................RI .... ...2P% ...better...Def worse...

Game question ...can our better Def ( and their slightly worse Def) offset their better 2pt shooting and home field advantage?....The answer is it depends...on which Bills team shows up.

Injury update....2/1/ 19...Welmer is sidelined with a left foot fracture and will likely miss the rest of the season.

WWN2D2W....Stop  Dowtin....hold him to 13 pts...Stop Langevin...11pts...7 reb....and Russell 11 pts....we need to win the reb battle and match them on TOs ...12 would be good.

WCGW......We should have open shots ...and we don't make them....also we leave them alone close in and they score a bunch of easy ones....remember this team can't shoot 3s....we need to pack  in close to the basket. 

Bottom line....Both teams were at B last time...Now they are both at B-....The Bills are 14-6 ..RI 14-7...both teams stats are very close. This should be a very tight game....a one possession game that could be decided by a FT , a TO,   a bad ref call (sigh) etc.  The game will come down to which team wants it the most.  If we play with the sense of urgency that we did in the Rich game in the last 2 1/2 min...then we win

Go Bills.

 

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This game went pretty much as expected ...a mirror team to us....close ...back and forth game both in score and stats...till the end....

The Good...slashes looked like this ...42/25 for The Bills......42/ 22 for RI...we won the Reb battle...35 to 34....We stopped Langevine on pts...6......SLU ...12  team TOs

The Bad....we didn't stop Dowtin..17Pts...Langevine 9 reb...Russell 13 pts...and Martin..16 pts

The Killers....FT shooting....We were out shot 77% to 37%....They had 17 FTM and we had 6 ...difference of 11 pts...and there is your ball game.... the FTs we shot were way below our usual bad of 62%....and they shot way above their normal FT rate.  .also while we had an OK  TO rate (12) it turned out to be a fail in that RI only had 7  ...The difference of 5 was worth about 11pts...again there is your ball game...... while  our overall TO rate wasn't bad,  a number of our TOs were just careless ....RI cut their TO amount in half for this game......we probably needed to bother them a little more..

This was an even game that was ours for the taking....but they took it instead.

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