The Wiz
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Posts posted by The Wiz
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When The Wiz picks winners against real point spreads, wake me up.
Otherwise, it is like those NFL pre game show knuckleheads picking 49ers tomorrow over Arizona.
I may have to put a warning label on these forecasts. .....
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Edwardsville was pretty bad. So too was Loyola, Eastern and TN-Martin. We shot 29% from three last night and barely broke 50% from the free throw line. Are these the marks of a B+ team? I agree with the psycho-analysis portion of the Wiz's comments but we will need a little more come Monday then we have needed since likely the Kansas game. Even w/o KM and still failing to replace th einterior threat of BC, we are only one win away from where I thought we'd be. In hindsight, if we had had KM, we might be looking at a one-loss season so far.
Well, yes ...these are the marks of a B+ team. Even with bad numbers the Bills win by 27. The mark of a good team is to beat the bad teams when you have an off night. I think the Bills play to the level of their competition. They will step it up a notch against NM.
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This should be a Bills win if we play up to par. New Mex should suffer a psyche letdown coming into the Fetz. A big win for them beating #8 Cinn....they were up for that game after being humilated by SDakSt. ...a chance to regain their swag by beating a ranked team. And they did. A hard fought close game drains you as well as a long road trip (time and distance) Then on Monday they will come to the Fetz right after being put back in the polls.... to play the unranked Bills....a letdown for them.
I do not have them as a top 25 team nor did I have them before SDakSt. But it doesn't matter where I have them ranked....the fact is they will be ranked which is a great thing for the Bills. Make no mistake about it UNM is a great team...I currently have them as A-. The Bills are B+ now. A win over the Lobos would move us up to A-.
I will be watching the opp 3pt shooting % again as a key factor.
With a revved up nice size crowd ...if the Bills bring their A game (or at least their A- game) this should fall into the Bills win column.
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Why anybody takes issue with the Wiz's numbers is beyond me. The guy picks winners time and time again. He has been here for years and is right 90% of the time...not only with the winner but with the spread. I'm guessing he hasn't worked in years with this system. I'd bet the farm...
Those that take issue are usually those that don't understand numbers, statistics or probability.. The cumulative probability of picking those 6 games correct (just picking the winners ..forget about the spreads) was 64%...very high but far from a sure thing....it was high enough though to predict a 6 game win streak. And yes, I still do work (with numbers) and supplement my income with Vegas.
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With the win over Cinn , New Mex moved up to A-
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Wiz-
Way to predict us winning the last 6 cupcakes...who had us losing any of them? Owned.
So I guess based on my 3rd paragraph....where I say those who thought these were easy to predict also thought these were not meaningful wins for the Bills. I trust you fall into the camp that thought the last 6 wins were meaningless. Possibly you missed the South Dakota St (D+) win the other night over our next opponent New Mex.(A-) ...just another cupcake for New Mex.
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A nice win tonight to complete the set. I liked the opp 3 pt shooting % at 31%...keep it under 35% . The overall defense was excellent. .
This set of 6 was unusual for me ...predicting 6 wins in a row at one time. I like to to take the games one at a time but the numbers just came together. At the time we were 3-3 and some felt the season was slipping away.... At 9-3 not so much. We were B+ at the start and we are still B+ now. We weren't terrible before and we aren't elite now. We are just a very good team that can get better from here (maybe reach elite if we can gel) A win over New Mex would probably push us to A-. I haven't crunched the numbers yet for the spread but it looks like the Bills will be favored Monday.
Yes, some will argue the set of 6 were cupcakes and not only easy to predict but also not very meaningful for the Bills. I would take issue with that. There were some cupcakes but they weren't all that way . Here is what the past 6 look like now........
Valpo...B
N Tex...D+
UT-M....F
EIU.......F
Loy-M...C-
SIU-E....D-
Valpo a nice win and Loy not a cupcake. These 6 games were resume and confidence builders ...and remember we did the first 5 without KM ...JJ &MM played some long minutes in those games....nothing to apologize for.
Also of interest are some of are other past opponents...SC has moved up to a B+ team...and SIU-C has moved up to a C+ (they were an F when we played them) When are opponents improve it is a positive for the Bills. Unfortunately, UW has slipped to C+. They are the weakest team we have lost to at this time. If C+ is your worst loss that's not too bad as long as you don't keep doing it. It beats losing to SDak St. Also the TAMU win is still a decent win with the Aggies checking in at B-.
A win over NM might continue the streak for awhile.
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On one hand SIU-E is the best of the OVC teams we face. But on the other hand they are still rated at D-. This will complete the 6 game cupcake run..... a good tuneup game for UNM.
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And the December run continues....one more to go which should not be a problem.
What a great win today on both ends of the floor...again my fav stat was opp 3 pt %...14%
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Is Indiana State an A rated team?
ISU is a B- team...a great win for them in OT. No shame to Ole Miss who had a chance to win it in the final second. This game would not qualify as an upset. I usually like a 2 letter ratings jump.
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A great win for the Bills on both ends of the floor. My fav stat is opp 3 pt %. I like to see below 30%...we held them to 14%...RM would have been proud....nice job Bills
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Even though I thought UNM was overated and shouldn't have been ranked they still are a very good team that carries an A- rating. Losing to S Dak St (D+) of the weak Summit league falls into the class of upset. Not to mention the Jack Rabbits beat UNM at the Pit one of the toughest venues. So this should answer the question....are they beatable? Yes they are ...but we will still have to bring our A game. If we play them like we played LMU... we win.
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I bet Middle Tennessee is at least an A- team on the Wiz's rankings.
You are correct waldo027....MTSU is an A rated team. I knew someone was going to play the MTSU card when I mentioned Ole Miss being a good team. No shame losing to MTSU. They will be dancing in March and if I am in the tourney I wouldn't want to face them in the first round. It is just more "ratings prejudice"... a school can't be any good if they are a directional school...or can they? It was just last January when we were still unrated and not burning up the track when I declared the Bills an A rated team. There were not only doubters but they were from our own board. So I guess it is no surprise when people don't realize that an Ole Miss or a MTSU may be good teams. I just wish people would stop looking at ratings and rankings in a rearview mirror and give teams credit for what they are doing now.
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very true...if we win out non conference we really arent in bad shape at all. I'm not saying we shouldnt have beat santa clara but they only have 2 losses and 1 is to a very good utah state team...washington has strung some wins together and will be top 4 in a stronger pac 12 than recent years...kansas is one of the 5 best in the country i think and we blew out a good texas a&m team...i realize its a decent sized if at this point but we will see.
You are correct...we should have beat SC but they are currently a B rated team so no shame there. Utah State ...a C+ team so not a good loss for SC. As for the PAC12 they are an improved conference ...unfortunately Wash has stayed about the same which means they will be a bottom feeder in the Pac 12.. UW is not a bad team (C+) but it is not a good loss for the Bills. KU is one of the best (elite A+) ..again no shame losing to them. It would have been a more interesting game if we had been at full strength....and you are right that TAMU was a nice win. (B rated) They are close to SC in quality.
The focus going forward is on NM (A-) as they are a ranked team As I pointed out in an earlier thread we will have a psychological advantage...if UNM beats Cincy there will be a let down ...if they lose there will be a let down. In any case the game should be very close with UNM ripe for the picking if we bring our A game.
I think we have a much tougher (and important) game coming up down the road a bit. Right now VCU is rated A+...an elite team...almost right there with KU. The game however is still 2 months away and things can change but if they can continue to play at the current level they will be ranked by the time we play them. The VCU game may be the most important game of the season for us. Incidentally, that game is followed by Butler away and St. J here. A tough stretch which may determine whether we are dancing.
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Hmm...Without taking this thread off track...too much
Ole Miss (A rated...8-1) barely beat Loyola our next opponent. I realize that some would not realize Ole Miss was a good team ( a correct assumption) and compared them to conference rivals Ky and Mizzou. All 3 are A rated ...it is close but that comparison shows this is not your father's Ole Miss. If the Jan 12 Ole Miss game against Mizzou were held today ....Ole Miss by 6....maybe Mizzou wins all their games between now and Jan.12 and they will be favored but as of today Ole Miss is the better team.
And back to the point of the thread....Loyola was able to stay with an A rated team....If the Bills are to win they must bring their A game (or at least their B game)
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Wiz,
Not to be argumentative, but you are a man of numbers and probabilities. I highly doubt the probability of the A-10 winning all of those match-ups is 100%. Therefore, I would guess 5 or 6 wins is statistically more accurate (similar to how the projected record on Kempom does not equal the sum of individual games).
You are correct ...taken as a whole it projects out to 5 or 6...
I was really answering slu72's question of their best 7 vs ours....the answer shows that the A-10 top 7 are better than the BE 7...Putting it in tourney form made it more dramatic.
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Ok, let's say we don't get picked up by the 7 "elite" Catholic schools. Instead they choose X, Butler, and UD. May should call McGlade and tell her to go after Creighton, Valpo, and Wichita St, and offer Zaga and St. Marys admission once Charlotte and Temple check out. Grow a set, A-10, we've got some great programs.
Somehow everyone has placed these 7 schools on some kind of golden pedestal as being bb powerhouses. Hell, I'd venture to say if you took the top 7 A-10 schools this year and played the big 7 in a challenge tourney, the A-10 would win 5 or 6 of those games.
You are wrong ...the A-10 would not win 5 or 6 ....they would sweep
Using a neutral court and the following matchups....
Marq vs VCU
GT vs Butler
Prov vs SLU
SH vs St. Joe
St. John vs St. Bon
DeP vs Day
Vill vs Rich
An A-10 sweep....7 wins
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While this should be a win, this game does not fall into the cupcake category. This will be the toughest game of the 6 game potential winning streak. Loyola is C rated. Like most C rated teams they are inconsistent. They had a good game last night losing a close one (73-70) to Ole Miss after trailing by 13. Ole Miss is an A rated team....Better than SEC conference rivals Ky or Mizzou. So we can't take Loyola for granted. On the other hand they have lost some games they should have won....Long Beach St (D+) beat them and they lost to Alaska-Anchorage. The Sea Wolves are a ranked team BUT a Div II ranked team.
So we should win by 12....A danger sign would be to let them hang close deep into the game. This is not a game where we can open up a lead and then let up. We need to keep the foot on the gas pedal and finish.
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The December run continues although the next one won't be as easy.
While these wins aren't impressive they will look nice in March.They also give us a chance to get healthy, build some confidence and develop a little momentum.
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If this is about money, and it is, then I think the new conference will start in 2015. There is some consequence to lame duck seasons but the remaining Big East members will keep some fading glory longer and the 7 leavers get more cash in exit fees (and less in penalties). If the new conference starts any earlier then the existing 7 Big East teams have to pay more and it is possible that additional teams leaving other conferences will have to pay to get out as well. The opposite influence is the need to start a new identity and I suppose that has monetary value as well.
The wild card is the BE7 can change the rules because they have the required 2/3 majotity to do so until July1 ....do away with penalties, exit times etc. They may decide to forgo collecting exit fees from others as it may be more valuable to just leave and cut a new deal....But if they plan on forming a league for fall 2013 then they do not have until July 1...They have to do something now and even at this date it is iffy. As I said earlier, time is the Bills friend....the longer this takes ie pushing the opening date past the 2013 season...the better chance the conference will be larger and increase our chances of getting in.
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I think one of the key factors in determining the size of the BE7 will be time. If they want to start the league next Fall they may go with 10. However, if they have to wait a couple of years they may use the extra time to expand to 12 (or more). The official line from the existing BE is that the BE7 can't leave till early 2015. Of course, that is subject to change. Bottomline is time is running out to start a league in the fall of 2013. I think pushing the starting date back works in favor of the Bills.
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This is a little curious:
"Asked Saturday night during the Billikens' 73-51 win over Tennessee-Martin, SLU athletics director Chris May said he's yet to have any contact with members of the departing schools.
"At this point no," May said. "At this point were focused on how we can continue to help the A-10 and the A-10 is positioned well. We feel strongly about the Atlantic 10 and how it's taken its next steps with Butler and VCU while at the same time we feel good about where we're positioned nationally."
What do you find curious? ....the fact SLU has not been contacted or that SLU is being a good A-10er
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Should we have won by 51 or 42? Probably not. If we had a great game and they had a terrible game(yes that was an average game for them) we could have beat them by 40 or 50. In the UT-M prediction thread I had us winning by 25. We won by 22. We did what we were supposed to do and they did what they were supposed to do....that is how predictions work and generally how games go. Occasinally, teams divert from the mean and you have surprises. That is why you play the games.
UT-M is the worst team we will play all year.... 25 points will be the biggest spread for SLU. A 40 or 50 point margin is rare. I think if you had a top team like Duke or Fla playing at home against Grambling St. you might be able to hit the 50 point spread but generally it is very difficult.
In point spread calculations....the importance diminishes quickly as the margins increase past 18 points. Bottomline ....a 22 point win was about right for the Bills
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I think overall we would do pretty well....more wins then losses. Now if I get to pick and choose a little rather than do every game...we would do real well....Some on the board have told me they are using my numbers and making some money.