The Wiz
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Posts posted by The Wiz
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To win the national championship according to the Sports Book
Other A-10 teams........
Butler.....60-1
VCU......100-1
Temple...125-1
Dayton....125-1
St. Joe....250-1
X.............250-1
Don't think I agree with Butler as having the better chance especually over VCU. If those numbers stay that way it might be a chance for someone to make some money on a VCU/ Butler matchup if Butler is favored..
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From http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20130108/bubble-watch/#ixzz2HUZEzJUt
Saint Louis (11-3, 0-0; RPI: 57, SOS: 38)
After a sketchy start, the Billikens are starting to find a groove and now senior point guard Kwamain Mitchell is back. The win over New Mexico was an excellent sign, as Saint Louis toppled a quality foe without Mitchell really being back to his regular level yet. The Billikens open home to UMass and at Temple, so not an easy start to league play.
GW: New Mexico
BL: Santa Clara?
I don't think SC is a bad loss. In fact, I have SC and NM as B+ teams right now. Our weakest loss is Washington...a B- ...hardly a bad loss. That is why we have a good ranking and good numbers. The teams we have lost to are doing pretty well which helps us.
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I watched them in the first half of the Lehigh game yesterday. They looked pretty lackluster to me. Couldn't hit a 3 to save their lives and Lehigh was getting a lot of open look 3s.
VCU did play lackluster. I had VCU by 13 over Leigh so a win by 4 hurt their numbers...but they are still at A+. And Leigh is a good team at B+. If you look at the post above yours in this thread I mention Butler losing to VCU by 13 if played today. Leigh is similar to Butler and they played at VCU...so it is not an accident that 13 shows up again.
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With all the conference talk and new transfer rules...almost forgot there was a season...lol
UMass is a C+ team. We will have to step it up a notch from the Sav St. game to beat them. I think we will as this is the first conference game and we play better against better competition.
UMass is shooting about 30% from the arc with about 24 shots a game. I would like to see us hold them to under 20 shots and 25% or less shooting % from the arc.
Looks like a great chance for #8.
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Of course the deal is still being worked on but here is how the numbers work.
12 year deal @ $5MM/school = $420MM....leaves $80MM
$80MM divided by 12 yrs = $6.66MM. If you have 3 schools that equals $2.22 MM....5 schools would be $1.35MM....It is being reported that the remaining schools would receive around $2.5 MM ...Therefore the $2.22MM number is the one if you do the math. So for those following along....the new league will take 3 teams as the deal now stands.
If the deal can be expanded to $550MM (an extra $50MM) then there is enough for 12 teams at $2.22MM. If the minimum drops to $2MM/yr/school...then they can do it for $540MM. $2MM is 5 times what we are getting now as long as you can get by the inequity of the BE-7 getting more than twice the amount. It would not seem good for the long term to have that inequity.
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Since there has been a lot of talk about who is better...the A-10 or the BE-7 I thought I would combine them using my rankings and take a look. These are using today's numbers and of course the indented teams are BE-7
VCU
SLU
...........GT
But
St. Joe
...........Marq
Day
Temp
La S
...........Set H
Rich
...........Prov
Char
X
...........St. John
...........DeP
...........Vill
For those with inquiring minds ....Creighton would fit in between VCU & SLU.
If you look at my post above about how the cash will be divided in the BE-7, it seems like it would be best for the A-10 to stay together and try to get the same deal since our conference seems at least as good. There are 2 networks bidding on the BE-7...Fox 1 & NBC SP... If the losing network offers $500MM to the A-10 over 12 yrs...That is $41.66MM/yr div by 16 teams...works out to $2.8MM/school/yr a better deal than the BE-7 leftovers.
the A-10 just signed a multi-year t.v. deal that pays the teams in the conference $400k per year. Not sure how we could be expected to break that new contract?!?
The problem with the A-10 isn't the teams at the top, its the teams at the bottom. Always has been and always will be. Any comparison of the BE7 to the A-10 can't just focus on the top teams in the A-10 it needs to focus on ALL of the teams in the A-10.
Hmmm...Maybe the A-10 needs to take the top 9 teams plus Creighton and start their own league (or renegotiate that current contract)
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-Wiz, is that a big separation between VCU and the B+'s? for instance what is your spread on VCU vs SLU home, away, neutral?
It is a big difference between VCU and the B+'s. Fortunately, we only play them at the Fetz which will eat into their advantage. If the Feb 19 game were played today...VCU by 4. We have 6 weeks to get better and close the gap, a small one at that. If we play like we did against New Mex...we win.
As for away, let's look at the Butler game. They are very close to the Bills numbers wise. On Mar 2 they have a game @ VCU. If that game were held today VCU by 13. As for a neutral site, VCU would be an average of 8-10 pts better than the B+ teams....and that is a lot. So the answer is yes... VCU is that good.
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Since there has been a lot of talk about who is better...the A-10 or the BE-7 I thought I would combine them using my rankings and take a look. These are using today's numbers and of course the indented teams are BE-7
VCU
SLU
...........GT
But
St. Joe
...........Marq
Day
Temp
La S
...........Set H
Rich
...........Prov
Char
X
...........St. John
...........DeP
...........Vill
For those with inquiring minds ....Creighton would fit in between VCU & SLU.
If you look at my post above about how the cash will be divided in the BE-7, it seems like it would be best for the A-10 to stay together and try to get the same deal since our conference seems at least as good. There are 2 networks bidding on the BE-7...Fox 1 & NBC SP... If the losing network offers $500MM to the A-10 over 12 yrs...That is $41.66MM/yr div by 16 teams...works out to $2.8MM/school/yr a better deal than the BE-7 leftovers.
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Of course the deal is still being worked on but here is how the numbers work.
12 year deal @ $5MM/school = $420MM....leaves $80MM
$80MM divided by 12 yrs = $6.66MM. If you have 3 schools that equals $2.22 MM....5 schools would be $1.35MM....It is being reported that the remaining schools would receive around $2.5 MM ...Therefore the $2.22MM number is the one if you do the math. So for those following along....the new league will take 3 teams as the deal now stands.
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VCU is an A+? How many A+ teams are there?
I think they're overrated.
A+ = 16
I think VCU is under rated in that they are an elite team not rated in either poll...Over rated or under rated??? I guess we will see.
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Just curious as to how butler did not recieve an a rating. Especially if vcu is an A+
X loss was damaging...enough to knock them down to B+. A win over St. Joe in their first conf game would put them back at A-.
Timing is everything. Butler would beat XU by 20 today.
They played the game at X...if they had a rematch today at X ...it would be Butler by 1...The problem was Butler lost by 15...a damaging loss even for an away game.
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This rule would comeplety change how colleges basketball operates. Nearly every player would be a free agent every year, no matter what the NCAA says about increased punishment for tampering. All big program XYZ has to do is tell the highschool coach, AAU coach, friend, etc they are interested in the star player at the lower school and it would be over. I simply don't believe the NCAA has the man power or willingness to police this activity.
As a schools that requires us finding hidden gem recruits and developing them, this would be very bad for us.
Agreed...hopefully we could grab a few gems from lower schools or maybe take back some local kids who didn't work out at the out of town "super school" but overall it would be bad for us.
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Just curious as to how butler did not recieve an a rating. Especially if vcu is an A+
X loss was damaging...enough to knock them down to B+. A win over St. Joe in their first conf game would put them back at A-.
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Here is my pre-season A-10 report card...
A+......VCU
B+......The Bills
........Butler
........St. Joe
........Day
........Temp
........LaS
B.......Rich
B-......Char
........X
........St. B
C+......GW
........UMass
C-......Rh Is
D+......Duq
D-......Ford
Some observations....
These are pre-season and will change as we move into the season. The deeper we are into the season the more difficult it will be to move.
I have tried to arrange teams within the same category in order of strength. But generally if you are in the same category the diference between teams is insignificant.
The Sav St hurt our numbers just enough to knock us back to B+
The A-10 is a good quality top heavy league If you want to consider B- honor roll then we have only 5 teams that didn't make it. With a "little study" 2 more teams could make the grade. Fordham has improved some but they are still a major drag on the conference.
Assuming SLU holds their grade ...Feb 19 & 22 will be a chance to make big inroads with back to back games against VCU(home) and Butler(away)
Our toughest game in the next few weeks will be Temple
Overall, we are about where we were last season at this time. Last season we got better as conference play proceeded. It was late in Jan that I saw us become an elite team. Hopefully we gel and the same thing happens this year.
Go Bills
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The ability to transfer with no waiting period will have a major impact on college programs including SLU. It essentially opens up free agency.
This will be an interesting and important development to follow.
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How much of them being hot can be explained by our lack of defensive focus/intensity?
That's what scared a lot of us.
I think the lack of def focus/intensity is a combination of playing a lesser team after beating a ranked team....exactly what happened to New Mex. The difference was we held it together and won. That is why this was a good win.
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This is what a D+ team looks like when it plays at its best. The great D was no surprise but they shot way over their head...49% vs a normal 38%. Of course, the stat I like to look at is opponent 3pt shooting % ....only 20%... low even for them ...ave 25%. You could argue they only shot 5 times...even better...good 3 pt D keeps you from even taking the shot.
Random thoughts...
We seem to play to the level of our competition.
Contrary to what many think this was a good win...When the other team is hot and you are not having your best game, you have to find a way to win. We did and that makes it a good win...not a pretty win...but a good win.
The 8 point win while short of the spread won't hurt our numbers . After you pass 12 points it is marginal help. A 1 or 2 point win would have done some damage.
It was disturbing to hear Crews say we weren't prepared for the defenses they threw at us. Said he hadn't schooled the team on them and it was his fault. Nice that he manned up and took responsibility but still disturbing we weren't ready. Better be ready next time as UMass will come at us the same way.
Overall, this was what it was supposed to be ...a tune up game...turns out it was a tough one but some good may come of it if we come out ready against a defensive UMass team.
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I will be very disappointed if SLU only wins by 18 tonight. Heck, they beat Savannah St. by 40 a few years ago. I also expect Kwamain to break out and go for at least 15. No system, just a hunch.
The issue in beating them by more than 18 will be the pace of the game. They are one of the slowest teams in the country.
Beating them by 18 would be like beating a normal team by 25-30.
+1
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So MB, where is that Vegas line that that you say I am always copying...Oops no Vegas line. And now you know one of the reasons I have this system. Vegas doesn't have a line on many of our games. You must have been pretty desperate to use a system for comparison that has Kansas as the best team in the country. Hmmm....Kansas over Duke?????....You must be a closet Jayhawk fan.
I think I will keep my system.
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Savannah St is one of the best teams in the MEAC. Unfortunately, the MEAC is one of the worst conferences. As a result, SS is only a D+ team. Therefore, as an A- team we should handle them readily. This will give KM another game to get back into form and should be a nice tune up game for conference play.
This should be 8 in a row.
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But even Wiz's computer model is probably undervaluing us at the moment.<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="RiseAndGrind" data-cid="334421" data-time="1357230374"><p>
<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="billiken_roy" data-cid="334417" data-time="1357229591"><p><blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="SShoe" data-cid="334414" data-time="1357228898"><p>A win on Friday and then 11-5 in conference would put us smack on the bubble. It would be a stressful Selection Sunday. 12-4 should put us in, while a 13-3 record would put us in lock mode and hopefully a seed higher than 8/9.<br />
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The optimist in me says that these computer rankings are significantly underrating us at the moment because of KM's absence. The projections have us going 11-5 the rest of the way, so I think the return of KM adds at least 1 more win. I think the over-under for conference wins is 12.5.</p></blockquote>
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i know the committee has stated that there are no set number of teams per conference, but i believe that is just lip service to protect them for their later picks. if the a-10 is as strong as i believe it is, i think we get at least four teams and probably 5. assuming the worst and we only get 4 and one of them is an upset conference winner, i say finish top 3 and we are in. i dont care what the record is, just finish third or better. </p></blockquote>
Agreed, Roy. With that said, I think 12 wins is what it is going to take to finish third or better. <br />
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VCU and Butler are as good as advertised. After that, I think SLU can beat any of the other teams. <br />
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Umass .... Win<br />
@ Temple.... Loss<br />
Rhode Island.... Win<br />
@ Duquesne .... Win<br />
@ Bonnies... Win<br />
Butler .... win<br />
Dayton... Win<br />
@ Fordham... Win<br />
@ Richmond... win<br />
Charlotte.... win<br />
VCU.... Loss<br />
@Butler ... Loss<br />
St. Joes... Win<br />
@GWU.... Win<br />
@Xavier.... win <br />
La Salle... win<br />
<br />
Alright - I have them going 13-3. I wouldn't be surprised if they played one really terrible road game (per tradition) to end up 12-4.</p></blockquote>
A lot of typing for nothing... All that matters is The Wiz's line. He's Punxsutawney Phil, Hank Goldberg and the Pope rolled into one.
Nobody beats The Wiz.
Actually. right now I have the Bills at 41 a good solid A-. Under rated??? I think we are fairly rated at this time. Towards the beginning of the season I had us at about 45-50....some good wins and some painful losses and we have moved up a bit. I see no reason we can not continue to improve. With KM getting back to form and the Bills "learning" Crews good things are on the horizon.
After the Savannah game, I will do an A-10 preview. For those wanting a sneak peek, I have the Bills at #2 in the conference (behind VCU) and dancing. I see the key to the season as the 2 game set on Feb19 (VCU here) followed by Feb 22(Butler there). A sweep and you are talking about a high seed.
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my concluision of new mexico "upsetting cincy" is that cincy is likely overated as well.
I checked the numbers again and I would say Cincy is a legit team. I don't agree with the polls often but at 15 they are fairly ranked. It looks to me like Cincy just had an off night.
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Very nice win... and a spread of 14 is great. It is the maximum number that gives us the biggest boost. After 14 it is the law of diminishing returns. Interestingly, New Mexico stays at A-.....we are a "good" loss for them.
We are 4 points better than the Lobos. The psychological factors that I mentioned in an earlier post (letdown from beating a top 10 team and being reranked, followed by playing an unranked OOC team during a long road trip) were good for an additional 10 points. And while you can't figure it into the calculations (contrary to what some may think) it is not a surprise for us to win big. As I pointed out to the Lobo, they will use this loss as an excuse if they do poorly in their conference (I currently have them 5th)
Now another warm up game before conference play and we should be in good shape going into the season. I will do a conference preview after the Savannah game.
Go Bills
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Sounds familiar to us last year. Loyola Marymount. A successful and distant road trip which lasted too long. Recent national ranking. Poor performance. Except we were favored, etc
+1
A-10 preview
in Billikens.com Main Board
Posted
I could just tell him I am Pomeroy but he probably won't be back anyway.