The Wiz
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Posts posted by The Wiz
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Favored. Harbinger of doom. We are favored, on the road, against a team that just wiped the asses of two supposed creme de la creme A10 teams in their home courts in Philly while we gagged and choked our way through a split with two bottom-feeders. And the Bonnies are hot. Bad timing for us. Call me skeptical. Can't see it but hope to be proved wrong even if it's just to refill kshoe's ammo belt against me. Go Bills.
This is a really ugly weekend around the A10. Not only us at Olean, but Rhode Island at Fordham. Ugh 1.0. While trend tells me Fordham at home, Rhodey's game against us skews the binoculars a bit. In a toss up, I'm going with the team that beat us ... Rhode Island.
Charlotte at GeeDub --- ugh 2.0. Charlotte proved to me they could win at home by beating X. GeeDub has won two straight on the road (Umass (+) and Rhode Island (not so +) and had Temple in hand at the Smith Center. I'm going GeeDub.
Ugh 3.0. Duquesne at Dayton. Cake walk #2 for the Fryers? Of course, Duqesne came in just as bad last year and beat Dayton at home. Double dose? Highly doubt it. Dayton.
Temple at Butler. Butler off a loss. Temple not that good. Barely squeaked by Penn at home and lost to the Bonnies. Butler is mad. Is Rotnei Clarke back? Butler.
Xavier at St. Joe's. Xavier showed they might be inflated with loss at Charlotte. St. Joe's struggling, losing at home to the Bonnies. Still leaning towards banking on th ehome fires and road woes and going with St. Joe's in this one.
La Salle at VCU. Bubble burst. Nice while it lasted. VCU stays unbeaten.
Went four and three last night. Took it in the chops on one-point losses by both Butler and Rhode Island. Have VCU over Richmond tonight.
What you thinking, Mr. Wiz?
OK Taj....here is what I have.........
RI by 4 over Ford....Ford gives it their best shot and falls short
GW by 3 over Char.....GW, another team like the Bonnies who have improved this year to B-
Day by 17 over Duq....we let the air out of Duq....a laffer for Day
St. J by 5 over X....The Hawks show what they are made of this weekend
But by 8 over Tem....Butler trying to stay ranked....looking for blood
VCU by double digits over LaS....I will get you the exact spread after tonight's VCU/Richmond game. VCU disposes a good Richmond team....btw in a different thread I mentioned Richmond as the number one 3 point shooting team in the A-10...If they get hot from the arc they have the ability to surprise VCU.
So Taj....it looks like we are pretty much in agreement for Sat games except the Bills.....probability of a Bills win ....51.5%.....hope you are wrong.....Go Bills
This looks the same as the Vegas line.
It may be...I have Vegas on the other line....they are wondering what to put up when they post their line tomorrow morning.
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Favored. Harbinger of doom. We are favored, on the road, against a team that just wiped the asses of two supposed creme de la creme A10 teams in their home courts in Philly while we gagged and choked our way through a split with two bottom-feeders. And the Bonnies are hot. Bad timing for us. Call me skeptical. Can't see it but hope to be proved wrong even if it's just to refill kshoe's ammo belt against me. Go Bills.
This is a really ugly weekend around the A10. Not only us at Olean, but Rhode Island at Fordham. Ugh 1.0. While trend tells me Fordham at home, Rhodey's game against us skews the binoculars a bit. In a toss up, I'm going with the team that beat us ... Rhode Island.
Charlotte at GeeDub --- ugh 2.0. Charlotte proved to me they could win at home by beating X. GeeDub has won two straight on the road (Umass (+) and Rhode Island (not so +) and had Temple in hand at the Smith Center. I'm going GeeDub.
Ugh 3.0. Duquesne at Dayton. Cake walk #2 for the Fryers? Of course, Duqesne came in just as bad last year and beat Dayton at home. Double dose? Highly doubt it. Dayton.
Temple at Butler. Butler off a loss. Temple not that good. Barely squeaked by Penn at home and lost to the Bonnies. Butler is mad. Is Rotnei Clarke back? Butler.
Xavier at St. Joe's. Xavier showed they might be inflated with loss at Charlotte. St. Joe's struggling, losing at home to the Bonnies. Still leaning towards banking on th ehome fires and road woes and going with St. Joe's in this one.
La Salle at VCU. Bubble burst. Nice while it lasted. VCU stays unbeaten.
Went four and three last night. Took it in the chops on one-point losses by both Butler and Rhode Island. Have VCU over Richmond tonight.
What you thinking, Mr. Wiz?
OK Taj....here is what I have.........
RI by 4 over Ford....Ford gives it their best shot and falls short
GW by 3 over Char.....GW, another team like the Bonnies who have improved this year to B-
Day by 17 over Duq....we let the air out of Duq....a laffer for Day
St. J by 5 over X....The Hawks show what they are made of this weekend
But by 8 over Tem....Butler trying to stay ranked....looking for blood
VCU by double digits over LaS....I will get you the exact spread after tonight's VCU/Richmond game. VCU disposes a good Richmond team....btw in a different thread I mentioned Richmond as the number one 3 point shooting team in the A-10...If they get hot from the arc they have the ability to surprise VCU.
So Taj....it looks like we are pretty much in agreement for Sat games except the Bills.....probability of a Bills win ....51.5%.....hope you are wrong.....Go Bills
So the spread for the VCU game is VCU by 10 over LaS. If you notice in the above post I mentioned that while VCU was favored, if Richmond got hot from the 3 there could be a surprise. They did and there was. Richmond shot 44% from 3 pt range. That is why I held off in posting that spread although I knew that this Sat it would be a 10 spread even if VCU lost. VCU now slips to A, no longer an elite team. Richmond remains as a B rated team.
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Favored. Harbinger of doom. We are favored, on the road, against a team that just wiped the asses of two supposed creme de la creme A10 teams in their home courts in Philly while we gagged and choked our way through a split with two bottom-feeders. And the Bonnies are hot. Bad timing for us. Call me skeptical. Can't see it but hope to be proved wrong even if it's just to refill kshoe's ammo belt against me. Go Bills.
This is a really ugly weekend around the A10. Not only us at Olean, but Rhode Island at Fordham. Ugh 1.0. While trend tells me Fordham at home, Rhodey's game against us skews the binoculars a bit. In a toss up, I'm going with the team that beat us ... Rhode Island.
Charlotte at GeeDub --- ugh 2.0. Charlotte proved to me they could win at home by beating X. GeeDub has won two straight on the road (Umass (+) and Rhode Island (not so +) and had Temple in hand at the Smith Center. I'm going GeeDub.
Ugh 3.0. Duquesne at Dayton. Cake walk #2 for the Fryers? Of course, Duqesne came in just as bad last year and beat Dayton at home. Double dose? Highly doubt it. Dayton.
Temple at Butler. Butler off a loss. Temple not that good. Barely squeaked by Penn at home and lost to the Bonnies. Butler is mad. Is Rotnei Clarke back? Butler.
Xavier at St. Joe's. Xavier showed they might be inflated with loss at Charlotte. St. Joe's struggling, losing at home to the Bonnies. Still leaning towards banking on th ehome fires and road woes and going with St. Joe's in this one.
La Salle at VCU. Bubble burst. Nice while it lasted. VCU stays unbeaten.
Went four and three last night. Took it in the chops on one-point losses by both Butler and Rhode Island. Have VCU over Richmond tonight.
What you thinking, Mr. Wiz?
OK Taj....here is what I have.........
RI by 4 over Ford....Ford gives it their best shot and falls short
GW by 3 over Char.....GW, another team like the Bonnies who have improved this year to B-
Day by 17 over Duq....we let the air out of Duq....a laffer for Day
St. J by 5 over X....The Hawks show what they are made of this weekend
But by 8 over Tem....Butler trying to stay ranked....looking for blood
VCU by double digits over LaS....I will get you the exact spread after tonight's VCU/Richmond game. VCU disposes a good Richmond team....btw in a different thread I mentioned Richmond as the number one 3 point shooting team in the A-10...If they get hot from the arc they have the ability to surprise VCU.
So Taj....it looks like we are pretty much in agreement for Sat games except the Bills.....probability of a Bills win ....51.5%.....hope you are wrong.....Go Bills
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Another nail biter.
We are still at B+....St. Bon has moved up to B-.
As you know, one of the stats I harp on is opp 3pt shooting %. This will be especially important in this game not only because it will be close but because the Bonnies are one of the best shooting 3 pt teams in the A-10...2nd only to Richmond. Stopping 1 extra 3 pointer could be the difference in the game. I think the magic number for this game will be to hold St. Bon to under 32% from beyond the arc.
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Thanks all....
Now I have to start working on the Bonnies game
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Do not believe there are a lot of "qualifying" games around the A10 tongiht except maybe one:
That one is Xavier at Charlotte. This game should go a long way in identifying who the bigger hoax is ... Xavier or Charlotte. Don't know what the Wiz has (please post) but I am guessing Charlotte in a home win.
Maybe a second is Butler at La Salle. For the life of me, I don't see La Salle as any good. Said the same thing last year. But Gola Arena (arena by the longest stretch of an imagination) will likely be rocking because 4,000 folks will likely be in it when the #9 team in the country comes knocking. And Rotnei Clark is stil out I believe. I would not be surprised to see a La Salle shocker but I stil think Butler wins.
The Bonnies at St. Joe's. Was Temple a fluke? The Bonnies played well. Can they do the same on Hawk Hill? Doubt it. Going with St. Joe's.
GeeDub is at Rhode Island. Not sure which Rhode Island shows up The worst shooting group in the A10 or that group that beat us. Have no clue but can't really see GeeDub winning on the road.
Fordham is at Dayton. No contest. Dayton gets its first conference win and vaults right back into national contention in the mind's of SVU folks.
Temple closes out Penn's Big Five season. Penn is bad. Plus its not at the Palestra but at the Liacouras Center. Double bad.
VCU and Richmond go at it Thursday. At Richmond University, I think. VCU should romp.
Sorry to get back on topic but here are my prognostications as requested by Taj.....
X by 1 over Char...you guessed I would go with Char but I am taking X in a close one.
But and LaS even....you don't see LaS as "any good"....well they are good enough to be even....this could be another last second shot for But.
St. J over St. Bon by 9....we agree
RI over GW by 1...RI momentun from our game carries them to victory in a very tight game.
Day over Ford by 16...agreed no contest
Tem over Penn by 19...agreed this is double bad.
VCU by 8 over Rich....Rich has a pretty decent team but VCU is too much for them
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Well even though the RI loss damaged our numbers (and helped RI) we are still a B+ team (and RI is still a C) However, a loss to Duq and we will start to be knocked down. Duq is currently a D+ team.
Some are trashing us for the "horrible" loss to a bottom feeder. If RI is a bottom feeder it is only because the A-10 is a pretty good conference. Overall, they are a C team....much better than UT-Martin and SIU-E and much worse than New Mexico. Our loss was very similar to the Temple loss....2 B+ teams playing at home losing to C teams. It happens
Bottomline....as long as we stay at the B+ level and win the games we are supposed to win, we can put ourselves in a position to Dance. . We can not have any more RI games at this point.
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I'm more inclined to agree that the team failed to limit 3pt attempts, and allowed to many open three chances on scrambles. I wonder if RI's reputation as a severely flawed team, even Hurley says that, got in our guys heads. And clearly someone on the coaching staff screwed up when scouting Mumford. He got way to much space throughout the game.
As for 3pt % made, Pomeroy has made a fairly strong arguement against focusing on that.
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/defense_has_little_control_over_opponents_3p/
I am aware of the KenPom research and it is generally correct. However, I am saying RM would strongly disagree and tried to build teams to defend against the 3....and for the most part RM was pretty successful. He was imo an exception to the rule.
An interesting note .....in the last 2 RI games ...Char and SLU.....here is RI's 3pt shooting %
1st half
Char....50%....3 of 6
SLU.....50%....4 of 8
2nd half
Char.....0%......0 for 11
SLU......54%....6 for 11
Char makes the adjustment...we don't.
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52.6%
That is the % that RI shot from beyond the arc. For those that read my posts you know this is a stat I focus on...opponent's 3 pt shooting %........
52.6%
Way too high. I like to see 35% or less. Why? Because that is what RM focused on and this is an RM team. Where did 35 come from? RM knew that the best teams in the country shot 40% and by defending against the 3 specifically, you should be able to cut the % to 35 or less. In the case of RI, a team that averages 33%, he would have targeted 28% or less....or 5 less baskets made.....which knocks off 15 points....which pretty much equals the spread. By targeting the 3, RM's goal was not only to cut the % down but to discourage the other team from shooting as many 3's .
52.6%
Way to high for an RM team. If the team is not coached as an RM team then we will continue to struggle.
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RI is a C team. Not a bad team but not a good team, It is just an average team. One we should be able to handle.
We slipped back a little to B+ but not much thanks to the TAMU win yesterday. Also, Temple remains at B+.. With a few nice wins UW has moved up to B+ and SC is now our worst loss at B. Our worst loss is a B...not bad. As Bizzle pointed out in another thread we are about where we were last year at this time, I concur with that although I disagree that Sav St was a good win or could be a good win (still a D and no chance to move up))
The point is that this is about where we were last year when we gelled. I see no reason why we can't gel again. We will be favored in the next 8 games. Does that mean we win 8 in a row? We have a chance to .. The cumulative probability says it will be difficult But at this point I will take being favored in the next 8. This all assumes we do what we are supposed to do. I think if we go 20-4 or near that ,,,,it will quell a few naysayers.
Let's begin a new winning streak by putting down RI.
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Sunday morning and only Dayton failed to cover? Wow. Pretty damn good, I'd say.
Thanks Taj
I watched the UD game for awhile. With about 8 min left in the 1st half the Clarke kid from Butler took a brutal hit. He was down for 15 min and had to be carried off on a stretcher. Fortunately, it doesn't seem serious. ...though he is questionable for the Bills game at this point. When the hit happened Dayton was down 2 and playing well. After the hit the team lost a step and the crowd went numb. The game was over at that point.
My fav pick yesterday was St. J with an exact spread.
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That is a very nice place to be today? Are you doing any legal wagering?
Yes I did wager and yes I am keaving with more than I came with.
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While our 3 pt shooting was terrible,(19%) I always focus on opp 3 pt shootong because that is what RM would do and this is an RM team. Temple shot 45% from the arc...way to high. Had they shot the 25% or less I was hoping for (they ave 29.2%) you could knock off 9 points which probably would have given us the win even playing like we did..
Temple will probably move to A- so this will be a "quality " loss.
Bills grade stay the same?
I will have that tomorrow when all the games are finished today. All games affect the Bills to some extent.
We will slip back a little probably to B+ in that we just had moved up to A- The TAMU game was a big help to us.
What do you consider the "grade cutoff" for NCAA vs. other postseason?
I.E. A B- team would be on the bubble?
It kind of depends because there are so many automatic bids. Many of those teams are C (sometimes D) and they take spots from deserving teams. The more teams that you let in with lower scores....pushes the cutoff higher for the deservung teams.
Generally an A or A+ team is in. Some A- teams get in and maybe an occasional B+. I can remember a few years ago Missouri St was an A team and failed to make it..
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While our 3 pt shooting was terrible,(19%) I always focus on opp 3 pt shootong because that is what RM would do and this is an RM team. Temple shot 45% from the arc...way to high. Had they shot the 25% or less I was hoping for (they ave 29.2%) you could knock off 9 points which probably would have given us the win even playing like we did..
Temple will probably move to A- so this will be a "quality " loss.
Bills grade stay the same?
I will have that tomorrow when all the games are finished today. All games affect the Bills to some extent.
We will slip back a little probably to B+ in that we just had moved up to A- The TAMU game was a big help to us.
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While our 3 pt shooting was terrible,(19%) I always focus on opp 3 pt shootong because that is what RM would do and this is an RM team. Temple shot 45% from the arc...way to high. Had they shot the 25% or less I was hoping for (they ave 29.2%) you could knock off 9 points which probably would have given us the win even playing like we did..
Temple will probably move to A- so this will be a "quality " loss.
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What sports book are you at?
Mandalay Bay
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I don't usually do this but since I am at the Sports Book anyway, I thought it would be interesting to compare Vegas numbers to mine.
But by 1 over UD....Looks like I am the only one picking Dayton.
Char by 2 1/2 over RI.......a match
LaS by 9 over Rich.....I think Rich is better than most think though not good enough to win
VCU by 7 1/2 over St. B....not enough respect for VCU
Temp by 4 over SLU.....We are better than Vegas thinks
X by 5 over GW,,,,This one will be a little closer than Vegas thinks
St J by 8 over Duq,,,another match
So 2 matches for Vegas and I gave them an extra 3 days to figure it out....lol
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UConn AD dismisses move to the BE7 or MWC. Says there is no truth to it reports the Hartford Courant
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For your A-10 reading pleasure.........
Day by 1 1/2 over But
Char by 2 1/2 over RI
LaS by 6 over Rich
X by 4 over GW
VCU by 12 over St. B
Temp by 2 over SLU
St. J by 8 over Duq
So yes, But is ripe for the picking but it will come down to the wire. Again how But is ranked 14th and VCU not ranked at all is beyond me.
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For all those who like to wring their hands over lesser teams, you now have something to legitimately worry about. This is not a lesser team.
This will be a tough game. I think it is a winnable game but we have to do a few things. After their loss, Temple will be gunning for us. We need to come out strong , knock them off their game and take an early lead....take the crowd out of the game too. The other thing we need to do as I have said many times is to hold the 3pt shooting down. If we hold them to 25% from the arc, I think we will win. If we can stop just 1 extra 3 pointer that could be the game changer.
We definitely need to bring our A game tonight.
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I dont know much about how Vegas odds work but dont the numbers move when people put more money on certain teams?
If that is the case I could see a lot of casual bball fans and small time gamblers putting more money on Butler because of some of their impressive wins.
When this happens wouldnt Butlers odds of winning improve?
Yes....people change the odds...Butler as the fav in the A-10 seems like a discrepancy. If people think Butler is the best team in the A-10 there could be some interesting opportunities coming up.
Now dlarry all you need to do is take 10 grand and put it on the Bills . Then in April when the Bills beat Indiana (the fav) l in Atlanta, you will be a millionaire.
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There you go copying off Vegas again. Can't you come up with your own unique set of odds that show Vegas to be wrong. Vegas has the Bills at 100-1, you show them at 12-1, that would be something different. Come on Wiz...There you go copying off Vegas again. Can't you come up with your own unique set of odds that show Vegas to be wrong. Vegas has the Bills at 100-1, you show them at 12-1, that would be something different. Come on Wiz...
Sorry about that but I was walking by the Sports Book and it SUCKED me in.
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Assuming the numbers are right ( and that is a big assumption).....$500 mil...12 years ...5 teams added on... 2 to 1 payout based on a 7 to 5 ratio.....
It would work out to $4,4 mil / yr / sch for BE7
and
$2.2 mil/ yr / sch for the 5 add ons
A nice pay raise for SLU but not a formula for long term conference stability.
Goimg from 10 to 12 teams adds many more games and Fox needs comtent. Hopefully Fox will want this to work and push the BE7 to close the "greed gap"
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As a resukt of last night's games the Bills have moved up to A-.
The biggest help was UW. Their win boosts them to B. This means our worst loss is to a B team. I will take that at this point.
UNM also moved up to A-. While I had them beating UNLV(the Pit advantage) it was still a good win. The test will be when they leave the Pit to play SanDSt and Wyo.
A nice win for TAMU which boosts them to a B-. They are a good team that will finish 5th-9th in the SEC.
KU came in close to target (I had them by 11) So even though they had to go to OT ...no change,,,btw ISU is an A team.
Nice win too for Butler although they remain at B+. I guess I am not on the Butler bandwagon yet. (sorry Irishdawg...at least dlarry will be happy). It was projected to be a close game and it was ... a little help but not enough to move them up.
I was rooting for SIU....that would have helped us as much as the UW win but the Salukis just didn't have enough.
Of course this will all be moot if we don't win tomight. The Bills need to take care of business which I think they will.
Bills by 2 over Butler
in Billikens.com Main Board
Posted
First of all great win yesterday. We held the Bonnies to only 2 baskets (2-16) from beyond the arc. A normal night would have been 6 baskets. I was hoping we could trim 1 basket from their total which would have given them a 31% shooting night from 3 (around the 32% I was looking for) and a 1 point victory for us. Instead we cut off an extra 3 shots (9 points) giving us a 10 point victory. Not to mention, the Bonnies passed on a number of 3 point shots because of our perimeter defense. We held them to 12% from the arc. A great effort.....RM would have been proud.
Even with the loss St. Bon remains as a B- team. They were a hot team with a couple of big road wins coming into our game. This win looks good on our resume. For us, we remain at B+.....which brings us to the Butler game.
This is a big game for a number of reasons....conference standings, Big Dance review, momentum, etc. In my calculations, this is a pivotal game. A win for us boosts us to an A-. This is important as roughly 2/3 of the teams rated A- make it to the Dance. A win puts us into the elite of A-10 (top 3). A loss throws us back into the pack and we have to wait till Feb 19 and after to make another significant move. For this game, I would like to see us hold Butler to 30% or less from the arc.
Glad to see this game is going to be a sellout. It can only help us.