The Wiz
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Posts posted by The Wiz
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I don't think that is the only reason why Butler was ranked 9th at one time. They also beat UNC when they were ranked #9 and Gonzaga when they were #8. I would say they have 3 signature wins on their schedule that pollsters can point to.
I agree with you ...those 2 would be signature wins also...the media just seems to focus on the IU win. The point I was trying to make was the Bills numbers are better than Butler. If you think Butler is a 14th ranked team (I still think that is too high) than we should be somewhere in the vicinity.
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I thought it would be interesting to compare the preconference report card I did in early Jan with the mid season outlook. One of the main reasons I developed a grading system was to help deal with the problem of analyzing teams when there is parity.There is more parity this year than in recent years....hence more "upsets". Sometimes a team may be ranked as much as 25 slots ahead of another yet the game spread is statistically insignificant.....just too many teams with too small of a difference. This applies not to just my system but to many others as well. An example in the A-10 would be Dayton and St. J. Most would agree that St. J was a pretty good team that has been inconsistent. While many would say that Dayton was a team that showed promise yet had given up. Looking at the game they played against the Bills, it looked like Dayton might not win another game this year. The traditional numbers for St. J looked better, yet both teams going into last night's game were ranked B+. ...ie any differences were statistically insignificant and therefore the home team, in this case Dayton, would win in a tight seesaw game and they did.
So here is the report card......
Preconference...............................................Mid Term
VCU.......A+.....................................................A
Bills........B+.....................................................A
Butler......B+....................................................A-
St. J........B+....................................................B+
Day.........B+....................................................B+
Temp......B+....................................................B+
LaS.........B+....................................................B+
Rich........B.......................................................B
Char........B-.....................................................B-
X.............B-......................................................B
St. B........B-......................................................B-
GW..........C+.....................................................B
UMass.....C+.....................................................B
RI.............C-......................................................C
Duq..........D+.....................................................D+
Ford..........D-.....................................................D
Besides using the grades for comparitive purposes, one of the other uses is to gauge Big Dance possibilities. In the nunber I have run over the years this is how they generally correlate. ...ie your chance of getting a bid at this time.
A+....98%
A.......90%
A-......67%
B+......16%
So at this point the A-10 should get 3 bids with an outside chance of 4. These chances are based on merit and do not take into account auto bids. So if Rhode Island wins the A-10 tourney and gets an auto bid ....the chances for a B+ team getting a bid drop to near zero.
Just a few other notes...I see talking heads on TV plus a few on this board saying SC was a bad loss. SC is a B team. I haven't heard anyone say UW was a bad loss. UW is a B team...SC=UW. Also, there is the fascination the media and pollsters have with Butler. At the beginning of conference play they were a B+ team. They have moved up to an A- . They are a very good team but not an elite team....not 9th in the nation...not even 14th. If the Bills aren't ranked than neither should Butler. So what gives? Butler has a signature win over IU....a fine accomplishment but just 1 game. ...a game that Butler played great and IU didn't. Taking the whole season into account SLU is the better team and not just because we beat them.
And finally, we have some very tough games coming up...Rich, GW, X and VCU. At this point, I think I am going to favor us in all those games by a very small margin(2-3pts). Our toughest game for the remainder of the year will be @ Butler. I will wait to see how we do with VCU and then decide on the Butler game spread.
So at mid term , I am pleased with where we are. From here on out it will all be about focus. Can the team keep focused for every game? Can JC get them ready to play every game? We will soon find out.
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Btw.....TCU = Fordham
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Just pay for my bar tab next time you see me and I'll call it even.
Sounds good
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Wiz, I'm curious about how much the SIU-C upset of Witchita State helped the Bills ranking. Hopefully our OOC opponents continue to do well and score a few more upsets.
It helped a little. The problem is that SIU-C is still a bad team. Even after the win they are still a D team. If they could move up to D+ it would be even better. But you are correct as long as our past opponents keep winning it will help us.
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Because Wiz has no clue what he is talking about. I lost my condo last year to foreclosure betting on his advice.
Wow!...sounds like you need some help but not the kind I could give you.
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Wiz, how do they manage to go from B+ to A in just about 3 games or so two-thirds of the way through the season? Seems like a rocket rise.
(Has Missouri dropped to A- or below yet — just curious?)
The Bills have made a nice move in a short time. Actually, it will be over a 5 game set....the 4 wins plus tonight (we are still A-) We are close enough tonight that with a win we should make the A level. How do you make that move in just 2 weeks?...Beat a decent team (St. Bon...B-) on the road and pound a great team at home (Butler...A-) ...then follow up by destroying a very good team (Dayton ...B+) That's how you do it. I think it was pretty impressive.
Btw, if Dayton loses tonight they could slip back to B.
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Gaston-- ankle sprain
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I will be there to watch the Bills become an A rated team tonight. A win tonight pushes us over the top.
A rated=90% chance of Dancing
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I thought it would be interesting in light of this topic to clean up the Top 25. In other words mark the teams we should be ahead of based on my rankings. I will let you decide whether these teams are ranked too high or we are ranked too low.
Using the AP poll.....
Under the category of Others Receiving Votes the following should be behind us....
Wichita St, Memphis, La Tech, UCLA
Under the category of Top 25 teams....
Butler, New Mexico, Oregon, Mizzou, Notre Dame
Now if we jump these teams we still don't make the Top 25 but we are alot closer.
If we win the next 5 games we make the list in 2 weeks.
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Opening at 21 and 9 for this week. Six A10 games on tap for Wednesday, February 6. Top two "qualifying" games include Charlotte visiting Temple, and St.Joe's going to Dayton. I consider these qualifying games because they seem more critical (to me) in tyrying to determine the contenders from the pretenders in this league. I stil believe Charlotte is a pretender and a loss at Temple wil lfurther confirm my suspcisions. St. Joe's we al know was picked at #1 and currently sit in eighth place at the halfdway point of the season. But that Dayton team was bad the other night. I odn't know that they can recover; seems Archie's two seniors are off to greener pastures already.
Look forward to the Wizlines as well.
The Bonnies at Butler: The Bonnies surprised in Philly. I'm thinking not so much in Indy although Rhodey gave the Dawgs a run last week. Butler.
Rhode Island at Umass: Supposedly a "rivalry" match up in New England. Can't see Umass losing to this bunch if it is a rivalry and it's at Amherst. Umass.
Charlotte at Temple: Charlotte's day of pretending are on the downslide. Road losses in conference at Richmond an dGeeDub, no tthe greatest of A10 titans. Templ eis good enough. Temple.
St. Joe's at Dayton: I'm no tsold on St. Joe's just yet. Eked by in home wins with Xavier an dTemple and struggled to beat Fordham on road. Fordham almost go tlapped at Dayton. But the Dayton team i saw on Saturday? Aye carumba. St. Joe's 5 and 3 on road. Dayton 9 and 3 a home. Dayton on two game spiral. Dayton winning makes ST. Joe's less a threat to us. Dayton.
GeeDub at Duquesne: I did not know that Duquesne beat West Virginia at home this year. Wow. I know this isn't the WV ofold but that's still not bad for a 7-win team. GeeDub won at Rhode Island and at Umass. It would seem to be GeeDub but if Duquesne is going to win a game, this might be it. Seems safe to pick th ehomie ... GeeDub in a real ugly squeaker.
Saint Louis at Fordham: No let down. Saint Louis.
Your Wizship ........
And here you go.....
Butler by 10 over St. Bon......Butler welds this victory to their resume
UMass by 8 over RI....RI coach slips and falls on his butt...so does RI
Temp by 9 over Char....Char charred by Temp
GW by 4 over Duq....Even with home cooking, Duq is cold
Day by 3 over St. J....BD49 is right...no double digit win for the Flyers....A crucial game for them....a win rights the plane....a loss sends their season spiraling down. A back and forth game that Day needs/wants.
Bills by 12 over Ford....as previously noted, the Bills spring the trap for a win.
So it looks likes we are in agreement this week Mr T
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Reality Check: La Salle beat Butler and @VCU at got 3 votes in last week's poll.
Their most impressive road win to date is @St Bonaventure. Avoiding a disaster in the Bronx, and winning @Richmond (something Charlotte, VCU and Xavier have all failed to do) should increase the vote total from 0-2 -> 8-10, but they're not going to sniff the 25-spot until they beat a team on the road that's at least in the NCAA discussion.
If SLU can win their next 5 games capped by beating VCU and @Butler, they'll be ranked. Aside from that scenario, forget about it.
re: the bad home losses
The Santa Clara (RPI 89 KenPom 61) loss doesn't look as bad as it could have, especially since they played Duke tough at Cameron. The fact that Rhode Island led Butler at the half at Hinkle certainly adds to the narrative that Rhode Island plays every team tough and is not the cupcake that their record would indicate.
The NCAA committee will pick up on those nuances, but the poll voters will not.
+1
I pretty much agree.
If we win the next 5 games we will be ranked on Feb 25.
I have SC as a B team with a 15-7 record....I consider them about the same as UW and no one considers UW a bad loss. Our worst loss iis RI and they are at C+ . We should have won that game but not a bad loss.
FWIW, I have the Bills at 32.
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I still have Dayton as a good team (B+) that looks good on our resume though their numbers are weakening. Are they that bad....no....we were that good. I think the key for them will be their next game against St. J. If they can bounce back and win they will stay at the B+ level... if not they may fade away for the season. Like all our past opponents we want them to do well. It helps our numbers.
As for VCU, I have always thought they were the team to beat and still do. If our game with them were held today it would be Bills by 2 over VCU. A win over VCU and Butler later this month would lift us from A- to A.
But for now ....focus on Fordham....remember the trap.
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Gaston, last I heard, is questionable.
You both are right to be concerned about the Spyders. They are just a fraction behind Dayton in 3 point shooting % and usually take more shots.
I show if we played today it would be Bills by 2 over Rich. We need to play the same D we did against Dayton and we can take them.
First, though, let's get the win over Fordham....don't forget the trap.
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For the Nervous Nellies....this is the real trap game.
I know some thought it was the Dayton game. But playing another good team, at home, in front of another large hyped crowd....a team that lived on the 3 and we defended against it....a team we matched up with....not to mention ....The Big M (no not Manning) ....Momentum.....I didn't think the Dayton game was the trap.
This game though is....after 2 big wins at home....playing a cellar dweller away...this qualifies.
The good news for Fordham is this is the best team they have had in years. One could argue they are one of the most improved teams in the A-10.
The bad news is they are still a D+ team. And with all the improvement they are still not very good.
The danger in this game is we get off to a nice lead and then let up. One of the positive things that has happened in the last 2 games is JC has done a pretty good job of rotating players. We have good depth and he has used it well. It is this depth and using it properly that has allowed us to open a lead , hold on to it and finish the game strong.
Bills should take this one easily as along as they watch the trap.
On a side note, ...the Bills numbers have improved significantly in the last few days....a big win by the Bills over Fordham ...say 18+ points... might be enough to push us up to an A rating.
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See I told you I would get mauled. All I am basically saying is that for all the Crews Badgering that has been done on here there has not been very much credit given to what I would consider one of the best band aid jobs done in the country this year.
Hey Bobby I am not on the attack just not fond of your posts. None are funny and rarely insightful. And remember you don't know me so please refrain from your attacks on me. You have no idea whether I am educated or not and have no idea what I have or have not done. Remember that before you make unsubstantiated comments. Thanks
And wow I just said I have been a Billiken fan for 6 years. Doesn't mean I dont know anything about college basketball. I moved here from Kansas City and had KU tickets for 20 years. I know how college basketball works.
A lot of you guys make it hard to be a billiken fan. That from an outsider that is trying to embrace your program and all I get is basically told I am an idiot for trying to point out a positive. I guess I can take my money and support to SIUE since you all seem to think that if there is not a huge splash hire it will be the same quality of basketball.
Something doesn't make sense here.
You have been on the board 2 days. Do you know any of these posters you are talking to? You are on a message board that is not affiliated with SLU conversing with random, anonymous people. Yet you are ready to make financial decisions involving thousands of dollars in tickets and support based on a few comments in a couple of days.
Something doesn't make sense.
You do realize there are 14 year olds on the board locked in their parents basement who post here. A possible middle schooler ( an anonymous one) insults you and you are ready to go to Edwardsville with your cash. Point of information here ....I am not belittling you 14 year olds out there. We like your opinions too. We are just not going to make real world decisons based on what you say.
Something doesn't make sense
In another post, you ask a board member...don't you care about where I spend my bucks and support. There are board members who are prisoners. Why do you think they have so much time to post. So if you are asking the possible inmate ...."does my money to the program mean something to you"....The answer is a resounding no. The point is why do you need validation from anonymous message board people on how much you give? You have brought up money a few times already. I am sure they are impressed at the Menard Correctional Facility. ...btw no offense to the prisoners either...oh wait ...there is an offense....nevermind.
something doesn't make sense here.
At this point there is only 1 thing left to do ....call a foul on you After reviewing the tapes (your 1st post) I am now calling an intentional foul. You state ..."I will probably get mauled for this". Whistle-- foul--intentional.
I will leave it up to the board to decide who will shoot the free throws.
Now that makes sense.
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While West Va is not having its usual great year, they are far from a bad team. I would grade them as a B...similar to X also not having a great year but still pretty good ...also with a B. Now Old Dom is a bad team this year (D-) worse than Fordham. Wisconsin is an elite team so far with an A+.
Sounds like a good tourney.
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A great win for the Bills. I said in the OP we needed to hold them to 33% shooting or less and 15 or less shots. Dayton shot 27% and even more important had only 11 shots from the arc. This from a team that leads the league in 3 pt shooting % and takes 20+ shots/game regularly.....an awesome performance by our D. RM must be smiling from above.
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We have the big M (momentum) on our side. We are now an A- team. With another tough opponent and another good crowd, Bills should keep it rolling.
Dayton has now taken the lead in 3 point shooting % in the A-10 over Richmond. Those of you who read my posts know that is something I harp on....It is an RM thing. We need to hold Dayton to 33% or less from the arc. In addition, they generally shoot about 20+ shots from 3pt range. We need to cut down those shots to 15 or less.
Dayton is a B+ team. If they get hot from the 3 we lose. If we can again bring our A game (or at least our A- game), and bring pressure on them, we win.
Dayton has not seen the real power of the Fetz yet.
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There are some who have taken some shots this year that deserve some credit after last night's game.
1. Crews....I have not been a fan of his this season. I think he has done an adequate job given the circumstances he was thrown into. But last night he deserves credit for the win. He rose to the occasion in a big game.....similar to an average player who plays great in a high pressure game or makes the winning shot. Crews had a winning shot last night. I hope he takes that momentum and intensity into future games.
2. The fans....You know the story...they don't show...they don't cheer...they are not going to put on the T-shirts etc. Last night the fans all showed up and created a high level of excitement. ...and for the most part wore white. Where is the Butler poster who said the "Fetz advantage" won't make any difference. As it was pointed out to the fan ....it will make a huge difference...to us ...and it did. Not only did Butler "underestimate" our team but they underestimated our fans. Now that the fans have "tasted" Billiken power, hopefully they will keep coming back.
3. Post-Dispatch and media....Everyone loves a winner and the media is no different. We have taken our shots at the P-D in the past....many rightfully deserved. But today they led with the Bills story on the front page....including a super photo gallery. Most of the rest of the media had very good coverage too....both pre and post game. Hopefully we have their attention and they will continue to follow us in a meaningful way.
We have the momentum...we need to keep it going.
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With last night's win the Bills moved up to A-. The significance of this is that approximately 2/3 of the A- teams make the Dance. It is not easy to stay in the top 3 categories (A- through A+) We did it last season and that was pretty amazing. The competition at the higher levels is more intense and the line separating these teams is much thinner. It is difficult to move up to A- or higher. It is even more difficult to stay there as other teams are gunning for you. While we won't be ranked we will be known as the team that beat a "top 10" team.
A lot of factors feed in to the ratings ....who you play...how much is the margin of victory or defeat.....how your opponents do after you play them....game stats...etc. So it is possible to fall out of the A- rating even without playing but generally the mantra that will keep you there over the long term is....JUST WIN
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This is an unusual game tonight. Both teams have a chance to improve their letter grade with a win....The Bills from B+ to A-....Butler from A- to A. As a comparison, none of the 5 teams that won in the A-10 last night was able to move their grade up. There are enough numbers accumulated at this point of the season where it is unusal for 1 team to move much less for both teams to have a chance to improve.
For the Bills an A- would mean about a 70% chance for a Dance bid (providing they hold on to the A- for the rest of the season) For Butler an A is pretty much a lock for a bid (again provided they hold the A) So the importance of this game is positioning.... Get a win to put yourself in a bid position....then maintain. A loss for SLU would not be the end of the world but would mean they would still have to climb back up the ladder again.....which there is time to do. Let's get this win tonight.
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Ignoring the upset would make me 4 and 0 last night but 4 and 1 with Umass' win. The Wizlines went 2 and 3. Not fair to do a winner vs. spread comparison but there it is. I am somewhat conflicted with the Umass win. On one hand, I thought La Salle had a good chnace to almost run the table as is possible in the A10 given recent wins over Butler and VCU and them now getting votes in one of the polls. Then Umass slaps them down. Looks like Chaz Willaims did to them what Ramon Galloway did to Butler inmaking the go ahead layup with 8 seconds to go. It appears Putney blocked Wright's last second jumper attempt to win. I guess this is good, in a head-to-head tie with Umass we have the tiebreaker.
I think once again it just goes to show that even though the usual can and will happen (Dayton losing in Cincy ever since Reagen was president) some surprises in relatively even teams can and will happen. You cannot not come ready to play. URI gave VCU a pretty good tussle last night in Kingston before succumbing (Danny Hurley is a pain in the ass).
You are correct.....you can't compare wins to spreads. Looks like we are both 4-1 on wins and on spreads ..3 of the 4 wins... I was within 4 points. I'll take that.
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Calling the Wiz! Not a lot of "quality" or "qualifying" games in the A10 these two nights outside of us hosting Butler. Wondering as usual what are the Wizlines?
On Wednesday, Richmond is at Temple and while Temple is not the same team as usual, Richmond, who surpised VCU at home, haven't won an A10 road game yet. Temple is my pick (yes, these are predictions).
VCU is at Rhode Island. Rhode Island does not have the horses to stay with VCU. VCU.
St. Joe's is at Fordham. If the pre-season pick to win the conference is to get thealthy and back in the race, it must win games like this. St. Joe's.
Umass at La Salle. Can a team be riding any higher than La Salle right now? And with four similar guards, is any team in the A10 better suited to neutralize Chaz Williams? At Gola, means a La Salle win. This could be long-term scary -- nothing like certifying a team's belief in itself. La Salle is gaining momentum and could now be the surprise gate crasher at the top of the A10 come March. The only "tough" game left on their schedule is at us. Yes, they go to Temple and play St. Joe's at the Palestra but the other conference big hitters are gone and vanquished. La Salle owns the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over both Butler and VCU. That says a lot.
Dayton is at Xavier. SVU fans believe this is the year they get to beat X at Cintas and end the curse. I don't. Xavier.
And for Thursday, I'm picking us.
For my record, I started picking (predicting) the games on January 23 and am currently at 9 and 6 after a 5 and 2 Saturday. No lines, no spreads. Just winners.
As with the Bonnies last year, a dark horse candidate is emerging, this time, out of North Philly. La Salle could run the table until it sees us on our Senior Night. However, they remain mostly undisciplined and could fade back just as quickly. I think they deserve to be watched.
Here you go Taj....
Temp by 5 over Rich....Rich cools off at the 3pt
VCU by 10 over RI..... Not much left in the tank after their win over us
LaS by 8 over UMass....LaS is on a roll
St. J by 10 over Ford...Ford not up to speed
X by 1 over Day....A seesaw game with X by a nose
So it looks like we are in agreement this time.
Best games will be X/Day and Temp/Rich. We will see if the X home advantage is enough. Also, if Rich gets hot from the 3 they can beat anybody.
Bills by 2 over Rich
in Billikens.com Main Board
Posted
We need to stop the 3....Rich is 2nd in the A-10 (just a fraction behind Dayton) in 3pt shooting %. The difference is they shoot about a third more shots than Dayton. We need to hold them to 33% or less and 15 shots or less from beyond the arc. If we do, with the way we have been trending, we have a chance to win by double digits.