The Wiz
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Posts posted by The Wiz
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Another impressive win for the Bills. My fav stat, as usual, is opp 3pt shooting. ....12 1/2%. Even though Char is not a very good 3pt team. (27%) the Bills shut them down completely. In addition, they usually take about 12 threes/gm....only 8 tonight....down 1/3 from norm. Great D. BTW, Bills shot 42% from the arc vs their usual 36%
Wait....didn't a poster say they would take Char plus the 11 1/2....it is enough to drive me to betting...lol.
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I heard Highmark on the Rammer show this morning. He thought if we finished the season strong, JC would be the coach next year.
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So here you go ......games in order of start times
Day by 3 1/2 over X....Day flying lower these days but still high enough to beat X at the hangar
LaS by 3 1/2 over St. J....LaS needs this win more
But by 15 over F.....even with their big guy out ...still should be an easy win for But
UMass by 3 over Tem....Owls have gone to sleep
Rich by 5 over St. B....Bonnies get caught in the web.
Bills by 11 1/2 over Char...Char finds out that we are not Butler
RI & Duq even.....battle of the bottom feeders.
VCU by 10 over GW....Rams still rolling
So, Mr. T, I think the only one we really differ on is the LaS/ St. J game...and it's a big one with dancing implications. I think the A-10 right now is a 3 bid league. If you think there is a 4th bid coming it would be LaS. I have thought most of the season they could have a chance . Now it is decision time. A win puts them into the mix ...a loss and they start tio fade away. We will see.
The only other game I would take issue with is the VCU/GW. While we agree on the outcome....30pt spread??? I don't think so. GW is a decent team with a B- rating. They deserve a little respect. VCU vs Grambling ....now there is a 30 pt game spread. (Actually it would be 43pts but I am assuming VCU would let up on them and create only mayhem instead of havoc.)
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THIS.
It is apparent from his responses and previous posts that The Wiz has tier levels for teams, which is why he gives out the 'grade' levels (A, B+, etc.) Since he has these tiers in his program, he went and looked to see what percentage of teams from each tier have made it into the tournament. As his program now lists Butler as a B+ team, and 20% of B+ teams have made the tourney in the past few years, then he is placing Butler's probability at making the tournament at 20% right now.
Of course,you really can't make a straight-line probability comparison in this way. Just because 20% of B+ teams have made the tournament in the past does not necessarily make Butler's chances of making the tournament this season 1 in 5, even if just using The Wiz's efficiency rankings in a complete vacuum away from all other outside factors. That is a very simple way of trying to figure the probability of a singular team's chances of making the NCAA tournament and has way too many flaws. as it only takes into consideration one factor (teams in tier X making it in past.)
+1 or at least close to it.
My bad...I mixed 2 different type of forecast modalities in the same thread. There is the usual predictive game spread but I also did the A-10 Big Dance current chances which is not predictive. In addition by using the % it made it look even more like a prediction. As an example on the predictive model going forward....I have Butler going 4-2. If in fact they do go 4-2 they will be dancing. The 20% just assesses their chances as of today using a straightline probability and not taking into account future events. ...just a current marker probably best suited and used at the conclusion of the A-10 tourney. At the time of posting, it didn't seem like a big deal. In hindsight, it just created confusion.
Sorry about that. The one thing this board doesn't need is any additional confusion.
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You can't use computer predictive models to judge who is going to be in the tournament. Butler is in barring they Win at least 2 more games. Can you honestly believe that there is an 80% chance they win 1 or 0 games from now on?! You also had Dayton as a bubble team (before yesterday) and they were no where near the bubble. Umass is currently a bubble team (even though their computer model ratings aren't good).
I really enjoy your game by game analyses but the predictive model doesn't know a teams tourney resume.
I wouldn't say Dayton was a bubble team even prior to yesterday....they were a truly long shot with almost no chance to get to A-.. And that is the difference between Dayton and Butler. Butler does have that chance to get back on track. Dayton not..
You are correct in that it is difficult to forecast a subjective committee selection process. What I have done is used my grading system and compared to what the committee actually has taken in the past. It is not perfect but probably as good as anyone elses. Subjective never fits with numbers.
One thing that I have found interesting is the 15-20% number at the B+ level. Theoretically, a B+ team should not get a bid. So where does the 20 % come from? Generally, I have found it is the committee reaching down to a "deserving" team many times at the expense of an A- team....thus the 67%-75% at that level. Again, not always a fair or perfect world.
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Maybe if they restarted the season and played at a B+ level for 30 games, they would be 20% to make the tourney. But with their current resume they are a virtual lock.
That is my point ....at 24 games they are a B+ team....With another 7-10 games to go if they can climb back to A- they will be fine.
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Wiz, your system clearly views Butler significantly different than the committee will view Butler. Butler is a lock and will need a huge collapse not to make it.
I'm not saying your ranking system isn't right, but their resume is viewed very favorably.
I think part of the problem with having Butler as only 20% right now is that they are still rated. People ask ...How can you have a rated team not make the playoffs? Well, we all know the polls are fair and equitable and are never biased. We beat Butler ...we should be ranked ...our resume is as good as theirs (yes, I know they beat Ind) The fact is that right now their numbers aren't that good and they are over rated at least as far as the polls are concerned.
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Agreed. I know that The Wiz is using the predictive theory of his program to see where Butler will finish up, but even with the Charlotte loss their RPI is currently 17 (and predicted to finish top 20) and they will still stay in the AP top 25 on Monday (currently #11). I just don't see the committee tossing aside Butler unless they completely crap the bad down the stretch, like lose 4 of last 6 in the regular season. And even if that happens, they will have an RPI around 40 with 3 top 25 wins in their pocket, so they could still sneak in. Just hard for me to see them with only a 20% chance of making the tournament, as well as only 2 A-10 teams with a good chance of making it.
The turning point for Butler's season may be our game at Hinkle. If they lose, they could crap out....if they win they are rolling again....big game.
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20% for Butler? Does your formula give extra weight to recent performance? It just seems really, really low for them. I can't see them even dropping out of the top 25 unless they lose another 2 or 3 games.
Butler was an A- team before last night's game. That loss , a costly one, drops them back to B+, which is a borderline area for making the tourney. As i said above they need 3 wins especially us to get back in the hunt. Beating Ford and Duq is not going to help them in the next 2 games.
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Nice win by Char over Butler.
However Char is a B- team and not up to the Bills level. They will come out like gangbusters against us. We need to hold them at bay with some good D. Once we get the lead we should be in good shape. Char is not a team that you want to let hang around.
Also, starting with this thread and going through Selection Sunday, I will post A-10 team probabilities of making the Big Dance.
SLU....90%
VCU....90%
But.......20%
LaS......20%
Temp...15%
LaS could get into the mix by winning their next 2 games ...St. J and @ Temp. Big game between LaS and Temp....The reason why it is tough for the A-10 to get multiple bids ...teams knock each other off.
Butler needs to win its next 3 to get back in the hunt with the Bills being their most important of the 3. The game at Hinkle will be a big game for BOTH teams.
I mentioned in my A-10 preview thread at the beginning of Jan that the VCU and But games would be the most crucial stretch of the season. That is still true. We are in the driver's seat. We just need to keep winning ....especially the next 3 games.
Keep focus....keep it going.
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I'm not going to dispute your numbers, Wiz. But I also think you have to take into account that Temple might be given the benefit of the doubt if they end up with a decent RPI (~50) and win at least one game in the conference tourney. Temple has been to the tournament for 5 straight seasons and has a lot of name recognition. If they are within striking distance, I can see the selection committee letting them in based on their history and consecutive trips to the tournament.
I would agree that Temple has a chance with the operative word being chance. My B+ teams are teams that are not "in" yet but that could put themselves in a position to get a bid. Let's call it near the bubble. Those teams are Dayton, St. J, Temp, and LaS
Dayton and St. J would have to win all their remaining games and then they might still fall short depending on what other teams do. If Temple wins out they would move to the 2/3 chance. LaS has the best shot right now. If they win there next 1 or 2 games they move to the 2/3 chance of being in.
In the end it looks like the A-10 is headed for 3 bids with a decent chance of 4 or if teams stumble 2.
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So we agree that five or six automatic bids out of the A-10 is wishful thinking. I think a best case would be four, plus a tournament bid (a la Bonawelding last year). I am into rooting for SLU more so than the number of teams the A-10 gets in. If you only have three A-10 teams in now... IF LaSalle and Temple finish strong and have better RPIs and we don't go very deep in the conference tournament, we could be in trouble. I see rooting for the A-10 in the nonconference, but that's over. I'm rooting against Temple now. If it comes down to taking one more A-10 team or another BCS team, I don't have faith in the selection committee.
Yes we agree 5 or 6 is out....I think 4 is the max even with a dark horse tourney winner. So if the season ended today the Big 3 are in SLU, VCU , Butler and then LaSalle with a 67% chance. If RI comes out of nowhere and wins the tourney and then gets a bid, LaS would be out. The only way you could have more than 4 bids is if you had 4 teams reach the A level and then have a dark horse....almost impossible because you would then have the dark horse knocking down the good teams. Also it would be difficult to have 4 teams reach the A level because they are playing one another and knocking each other down the rest of the season.
The other scenario is the top 3 all start losing and the A-10 winds up with 1 or 2 bids.
Most likely scenario...A-10 with 3 bids (the Bills one of them) and a 2/3 chance for 1 more( LaS currently...assuming they beat the Bonnies tomorrow)
We just need to stay focused and that will be JC's job.
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Despite the other thread where in it is inoted Smith is out for Butler's next two games, I am sticking by the Butler over Charlotte pick for tomorrow night.
No change here ....Butler still by 11
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Since we are in the driver's seat and control our own destiny put me in the camp that says I want all our opponents to do well. Take LaS for instance....I would love to see them win the rest of their games and then come to the Fetz and we beat them. If they went on a run they would be ranked when they came here. You want to play good teams......and no matter how flawed the poll system is it is what determines what the "big" games are.
As for bids I only have 3 in right now. ...Bills, VCU and Butler. If LaS wins Wed nite against the Bonnies, they will have a good shot(67%) at making the Dance ...so possible 4th. I don't see anyone else at this time that's close.
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34th place and 34 votes is about where I thought we would be.....2 more weeks with 3 more wins and we will be there.
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Here is what I have this week.....
X by 15 over Ford......Ford gets rammed
St. Joe by 5 over Rich....Hawks swoop down on Rich
LaS by 2 1/2 over Bonnies....Bonnies come apart at the seams
Day by 4 over RI....Day flying again
Butler by 11 over Char.....But bulls their way to victory.
Temp by 16 over Duq.......Duq whoooo?
VCU by 10 over UMass....it will take more than a minute man to stop VCU
So those are my pick this week T79
Looks like we differ on the Day/RI game.
I think the big game this week will be LaS/Bonnies....not only because it will be the closest but if LaS wins (especially if they win big) they may move up to A- which then gives the a Big Dance probability of 67%.
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The Illini are an A- on my list which means they have a 2/3 chance of getting in right now. I think if they go 5-2 they will be in as long as their remaining losses are "good ones" ie Mich and Oh St.
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Warning....do not read this post if you believe ....it is hard being a Bills fan.
OK dreamers...I fired up the computer...poured in some blue Kool-Aid and asked what would happen if we won the remaining games .....under my rankings we are currently 28th
Through the end of the season ....17th
with an A-10 tourney sweep...............11th
This makes some huge assumptions which would all have to be met....this would be extremely difficult if not impossible
1...win all remaining games and the A-10 tourney
2...no teams on the list move from their current positions (not likely)
3...we win every game by the projected spreads (not likely)
For those that are still drinking and dreaming, it is possible to finish even higher than 11th, if we all the games by big margins.....leading to a 2nd seed in the Dance
The preceding post has been for thiose who believe .....it is easy being a Bills fan..
For the rest of the Bills fans you may now continue reading........
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I think we will still be in the receiving votes portion of the poll...but right below 25. Two conference road wins this week and 6 wins in a row.
+1
I have the Bills ranked at 28 and it usually takes the pollsters time to catch up with me. If we do finish in the upper 20's or 30's I don't think a win over Char next week will be enough to boost us into the Top 25 the following Mon.. I am thinking 2 more weeks (3 more wins) and we will make the Top 25. Won't be easy but we can do it.
Last night's win was a good one no matter how you cut it. The Fordham game had little effect on the data because they are so weak. Richmond, as a B team, helps our numbers. We will move up but coming from 43 ranked on the polls to Top 25 is probably too much too ask for this week.
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We need to stop the 3....Rich is 2nd in the A-10 (just a fraction behind Dayton) in 3pt shooting %. The difference is they shoot about a third more shots than Dayton. We need to hold them to 33% or less and 15 shots or less from beyond the arc. If we do, with the way we have been trending, we have a chance to win by double digits.
In the OP I stated we needed to hold Richmond to 15 shots or less and 33% shooting from the arc.....Actual numbers ....15 shots and 20%. I also said if we are able to do that we will by double digits....Final score ....Bills by 10....Perfect ....Great D Bills...Keep it going.
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OK Mr T....here we go.....
SLU by 2 over Rich...The Bills crush the Spyders with a bucket
Dayton by 3 over Temple.... Flyers bomb Dayton with a 3
But by 1 1/2 over GW....The Dawgs take a small bite of Colonial
UMass by 1 1/2 over St. J.... The "men" may win in the final minute
RI by 1/2 over St. B.....Are clown coach antics worth half a point?
LaS by 17 over Ford......Ford explores new ways to lose.
X by 6 over Duq....All for 1 and won for X
VCU by 6 over Char...VCU out-smarts Char
So it looks like we agree except RI/Bonnies and then only by the slimmest of margins.
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While it means nothing, I would bet, as of today, we will be favored in every game with the exception of Butler that we have left. Maybe Wiz can weigh in.
I touched on this topic in A-!0 Mid Term Report Card thread. Basically, we will be favored in 7 of the 8 remaining games. 4 of the games will be very close.....Rich, GW, X and VCU The Bills will be favored in all of those by 2-3 points. I am going to wait on the Butler game to see how we do against VCU and then figure a spread. If we take the 3 we should win plus split the the remaining 5 (3-2) we can finish 6-2...most likely scenario..... It is possible for us to run the table....if we lose focus then we drop to 3-5. For now, I will take 12-4 and a nice tourney run.
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Don't forget their win over Marquette.
I would guess that Butler's numbers under Wiz's system don't pop out because they don't beat a lot of teams by particularly large margins and they've probably benefited greatly from the "luck factor." They have 3 big wins that easily could have gone the other way: 2 came at the buzzer (Marquette and Gonzaga) and 1 in overtime (IU). This would also explain the big difference between their KenPom rating and the RPI.
+1
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Only VCU went down, you can only go down from A+. All others stayed the same (eight teams) or went up (seven teams). Something seems amiss with that
Well half the teams stayed the same....to be expected. The ones that went up benefited from playing more difficult teams in the A-10 than their OOC games plus some of the OOC opponents improved too.
GDT - Billikens vs. 49ers
in Billikens.com Main Board
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Are you the one who thought the spread was too wide? I don't think you were the only one who posted that they disagreed...but thanks for stepping up.
Yes, I "misdiagnose" and when I do people call me out and even when I am right they still call me out (you must have copied Vegas even though Vegas hasn't posted yet...lol) It's a message board. That's what people do.
And so as not to offend the Charlotte people on the board, if we see you in the A-10 tourney, I will try to make the Bills winning spread more narrow next time.