The Wiz
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Posts posted by The Wiz
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Now the Wiz is guessing!
Just going for a little history
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Wouldn't it be something if we could stop their 3 streak. We held ISU one of the top 3 pt teams in the nation to 3 shots made. Vandy is only an average shooting team. It would be difficult to shut them out from the arc but possible. I am projecting 3 made but an in and out or rim and who knows.
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My bad...I just remember times when we had 1 guy rebounding during foul shots....
1 thing for sure is there will be rebounding opportunities when Vandy is shooting FT.
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Do you know the other 2 schools?
Princeton & UNLV
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This ain't no cupcake.
Last night Vandy ( B ) beat a good Ga Tech ( B ) team. They won because they played at home and were very hot from the 3....46.7% Overall Vandy is an average shooting 3 pt team. Their weakness is foul shooting. One of the worst teams in the nation (bottom 7% in FT %) So we shouldn't be afraid to play tight D against them.
Factoid.....Vandy is 1 of 3 teams that has made a 3 pt basket in every game since the 3 pt line was established in 1986.
Here is what the Bills (A) need to do to win.....
Hold them to 12 three point shots or less.....hold them to 3 three pointers made. ....no more than 25% from the arc.
I know we don't like to put 2 men rebounding when the opp shoots foul shots...but I would for this game given the bad foul shooting %
Play aggressive D...we do anyway but just a little more focus for this game. We need to play them like we played ISU. The Commodores are not as good as ISU overall or from the 3 but using the same type of defense will work against them.
Vandy is a good team but we are better. We will only win though, if we bring our A game.
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A good game for the Bills although it won't help our numbers.
The highlight for me (to know one's surprise) is 3 D. While NCAT is an average shooting team from the arc (31.58%), we stop them at 1-12 (6.67%) ...super D. Nice job Bills. Also, the FT% was impressive at 78%...even more so when you consider we took a lot of shots....25-32.
Got a lot of players into the game....another positive.
Although you can't tell by the score, this wasn't a bad game for NCAT. There Achilles is TO....usualyy about 17 /game....this game only 12. However, it doesn't change the fact they are still an F team.
But even playing a cupcake, I thought this was a valuable game. Bills played hard and gave a good effort with a lot of fine performances. I did not have the feeling we played down to their level.
A good victory to carry into the break while we await a much tougher team....Vandy.
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No surprise here ....I had FSU by 4 ....both teams even up (A) ...Noles advantage being at home.
But the big surprise is UMass a pretty good shooting 3 point team (37.72%) and winds up shooting 7% going 1-15...Bills take note of this for later on---you know I will bring it up......FSU scores final 6 points to take the game. Not a damaging loss because they were equal but still a loss. Many (talking heads) think that UMass is the class of the A-10.....not true. I have (and have had) the Bills and UMass as equals. A long way to go till we face them and things can change but this game shows the Minutemen are vulnerable to 3 D.
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Our last official cupcake game. Yale ( C ) will not be a cupcake game.
NC A&T (F) will give us a chance to see the rest of the Bills team.
The only positive I have is, NC A&T is better than Edwardsville.
No analysis needed for cupcake games.
Just win.
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Yep.
If you, too, want to be a Wiz, the Cliff Notes version is to just look at the Vegas power rankings 4-5 days ahead of the game, do the math, there is the early spread. By game day it will be a point or two different with adjustments for subsequent games played by other teams, injuries, etc.
Then take the rankings and make the top 8% or so "A" teams, then "A minus", etc.
Yes the Billikens have been overrated by Vegas so far; the assumption was made that with so many returning seniors, we would be as strong or stronger than last year. But losing key leaders and shooters like KM and CE has left a lot of gaps in the team chemistry.
But Crews is top notch and is figuring out the best combinations to use for us and they are starting to jell. I think they will do better ATS as the season progresses.
Anyone can say "Billikens by 8" 4-5 days before the game. We need The Wiz, if he really has a sophisticated-space-age-world-class-kick-ass computer program, to say "Bills to be favored by 8 but will win by 20". Or "Bills favored by 8 but will only squeak by with 2 point win".
Wiz?
You obviously don't deal with probability. It might be a good time time to review and understand the Descartes quote I use at the bottom of every post.
Did you ever notice how the different TV stations in St. Louis all have similar weather forecasts. Why is that? Because they all understand what Descartes was trying to say. Yeah, I know....they just steal the info from the Weather Bureau...and they have no computers...and the word meteorologist means nothing....anyone can do that.
Funny thing is I do go out on a limb in predicting shots but you seem to miss that. ISU came into the game with an average of 16.11 three point attempts/game and 7.22 shots made /game Yet I went with 11 att & 3 made because I thought that was what we needed to do to win--an exact hit on both.....same on Wofford....an exact hit....I would tell you to figure the odds of hitting those 2 sets of figures on back to back games but that would be pointless. By the way, let me know when Vegas comes up with that info.
So you would like one of the weather guys to predict a 70 degree day on Jan 20 today....good luck with that. Yeah, I know, if they were really forecasters they should be able to do that. I guarantee whether it was the weatherman or myself going out on a limb as soon as there was a miss, you would be the first to complain.
I have one final prediction for this thread.....that no matter what I predict....MB will be unhappy.
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An impressive win....one that should set us on an upward trend in the coming weeks. Of course it should be no surprise to those who Bill-ieved we were an A rated team. (For those that don't understand the grade system---this means we are good)
I noticed the ISU finished 3-11 from 3pt range. The second game in a row, I predicted both the exact number of shots and attempts from the arc for our opponent.. How can this be possible? I must get this info from Vegas....No wait , they don't do that...Well, it must be that computer...can't be that ...I don't have one ( I always wonder how I make these posts without a computer...Bah humbug...reality), ....maybe the Bills read my posts and use it as a game plan...Conspiracy..hmm, maybe....I know, it is that Rain man thing (without the math)...Yeah, that's the ticket
Oh well....Let's get on to the checklist...predictions made in various posts during the past week by me
Prediction......................................Actual
Bills win........................................Bills win.......check
by 8 pts.........................................by 17............check
11 3pt shots att by ISU......................11............check
3 three pt shots made.........................3..............check
Bills FG% 43.7%................................47.9%.......check....good
Bills 3pt % 30.2%................................40%.........check....nice
FT% 70.7%.......................................,.79.4.........check....excellent
Loe min 5 reb........................................9..............check
Jett...at least 30 min..............................34............check
Last but not least....they have the better #'s, we have the better team....check and checkmate.
We will get a nice boost in the numbers from this win and a few of the naysayers will be quieter.
I see no reason why we can't take the next 4 games (don't want to get too far ahead) and move into 4th place for the best 16 game start in Bills history. Better clear your calendar for March
PS.....the reason Loe and Jett are on the checklist is because when those things happen (5+ reb and 30+ min) we win games.
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Wiz, I think you misread Jonny Karate's post (which is made likely by the lack of punctuation). I think he was saying, "ISU shoots 45 percent from 3?! In contrast, aren't the Bills shooting just 43 percent from the field, overall? That could spell trouble." I don't think he was disputing your numbers.
Well if he is asking what the overall FGM %....again in my original post I have all the figures....45% from 3 (44.83%)...50% overall from the field...75% from the FT line
Maybe, it's me but it just isn't very clear what he is saying.
As for the Bills matchup.....we are 43.7% overall....30.2% three pt.....70.7% FT.....
So yes there is cause for concern......But we are the better team and we are playing at home....I remain confident we will rise to the occasion.
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45 from 3 arent we only 43 from the field hmmm
Guess you didn't read the original post where I used the word "nearly 45". Also, I guess they don't teach rounding off at ISU
ISU 3 pt %= 44.83%
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So ISU has 2 one point losses to Tulsa (C+ ) at ISU and Belmont (B+ ) at Belmont. They also have a very quality win over Notre Dame (A- ) 21st in the polls when they played them at ND.
So what is the common thread.....Tulsa, a slightly above average team, beats them at Terre Haute. A much better Belmont just barely wins in Nashville. And Notre Dame, the best team they faced, winning in South Bend at the half by 10, loses by 13.
ISU shoots an average of nearly 45% from the 3 (3rd in the nation)
Tulsa holds them to 35%
Belmont holds them to 40.9%
Notre Dame lets them shoot 55%.
Defend the 3 and we win....this assumes we have at least a somewhat average game. If we stink it up, it won't matter what they do.
Bottomline...expect to win
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The Wiz is just like The Rainman, except he isn't good at math.
Has anyone SEEN The Wiz's computer and "program"?
LOL....So if you don't see it, it doesn't exist.
Hmmm....So when was the last time anyone saw MB at a Bills game?...
O thou invisible spirit of wine, if thou hast no name to be known by, let us call thee devil.
------William Shakespeare.......Othello
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Since many are buying tix today, I thought it would be interesting to look at the chances of winning. As a numbers guy, this is not OT for me.
The concept of hundreds of million to 1 is a hard concept to grasp. Your Aunt Mildred will tell you it is like getting hit by lightning (actually much easier to get hit by lightning) Meanwhile, your Aunt Bertha (holding 20 tix in her hand) says, "Someone has to win"
So what to do....who to believe.
Let's play poker
We will play 2 hands of 5 card stud. (means no draw for the non players)
1sr hand ....you have 4 of a kind....you collect your pot , toss the cards in and play again.
2nd hand....you get a straight flush . You collect your winnings and leave the table....You have just done the equivalent of winning Mega Millions . For the other numbers people out there , this isn't exactly a match but close enough. Chances of winning the lotto are slightly better but who is counting at this point.
Not into cards.....Let's try craps
You will have 6 rolls of the dice
All you have to do is roll 5 consecutive 12's ...We will make it easier on the 6th roll ....you can do 11 or 12. Not too bad. I am sure Aunt Bertha could do it
So if you have done either of the 2 events above....run to the nearest quick shop and buy a ticket. It's looking good for you.
Oh, btw, if you do win, PM me ...I can help you with that too. ( I actually have had some clients win the lottery....mini jackpots).
One last note, if you don't win the big one...still check the numbers...some of the "losers" can be worth $1 million.
Good luck
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This is a pivotal game for the Bills. A win would be our best of the year so far....a loss would drop us back to A-. More importantly, this will set the tone for the next few weeks. The schedule will get much more difficult as we move forward. A solid win will give us some momentum going forward.
Defend the 3 and we will win.
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I recall that team being 17-1 at some point.
The Bills started out winning the first 14 games that season....lost to Marq (away) Then beat Marq in the next game at home. ...won 4 more to stretch the record to 19-1....then lost to Dayton away in OT followed by another loss to Cinn away. Had there been a message board back then, it would have melted down.
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So here are the starts in Billiken history that are better than 9-2 .......
Year...........Record........................Coach..........Venue
1924-25.....14-2 (whole year)........Savage.........First Regiment Armory (pre Civil War building)
1947-48......19-2............................Hickey...........Kiel
1948-49.......18-2............................Hickey...........Kiel
1950-51.......11-2............................Hickey ..........Kiel
1955-56.......14-2............................Hickey...........Kiel
1958-59........16-2............................Bennington...Kiel....started 2-2
1986-87.........14-2...........................Grawer.........Kiel
1993-94.........19-2...........................Spoon...........St. Louis Arena
1994-95..........11-2..........................Spoon...........Scottrade
2011-12...........12-2.........................Majerus..........Fetz
There have been a few teams that have started 9-2 and lost the 12th game....so a chance for this year's Bills to make a little history and break into the top 10 starts with a win against ISU....I am assuming a win against NC A&T in the following game for an 11-2 start.
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Computer...what's the most wins the Bills have had with only 2 losses?
19-2 in 93-94....I can't go back to the beginning but if that isn't the record it is close. The 1948 team was 24-3....21-3 in regular season (NIT champs) but I don't know when the 3rd loss happened.
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But I think in this case, the technology is saying, "Humans make you wanna scream."
Yes...lol
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You are right....there must be a glitch in the program....I went back and checked it ...we actually started 12-1 in 11-12. Guess that just means we will have to win a few more.
Found the problem....I asked the question....When was the last time the Bills started 9-2....computer says 2006...Computer says you should have asked ....when did the Bills start BETTER than 9-2.
Sometimes tech just makes you want to scream.
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We started off 11-1 in 2011-2012
You are right....there must be a glitch in the program....I went back and checked it ...we actually started 12-1 in 11-12. Guess that just means we will have to win a few more.
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.....if you are a real Bills fan...................
9-2 is the best start since 2006.
The Bills are 8-0 when holding opp to 42.2% or better
The Bills are 5-1 when Jett plays 30 min or more
The Bills are 7-1 when Rob Loe gets 5 rebounds or more
Most FTM was against Wo (19)...also most TO was against Wo too (18)
Fewest FGM was also against Wo.....only 21
Bills have more assists in every game than their opp.
Bills average scoring margin at the Fetz is +16..8 pts.
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I think the 2nd foul was called because the first one was flagrant and the ref was trying to send a message to Wo that this type of play will not be tolerated. If that 2nd foul occurred first the refs might have let it go.
Women's game special
in Billikens.com Main Board
Posted
i have some free tix to women's bball games ....pm me if interested