The Wiz
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Posts posted by The Wiz
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Where do you have Mizzou in your rankings?
Mizzou.....47....A-
Illini..........51....A-
Both tourney teams
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Oregon is 10th in the AP Poll
corrected
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based on what I saw yesterday, I'll go with Michigan State for now as #1.
also think SDSU has some pretty good guys out there -- watched them some while in Calif. let's see how they do in KS.
Iowa & Iowa State = really??
I like corn
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Judging by the headline, I thought this topic was going to read ....Bills by 1
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Well the snow gods have smiled down on Iggy and granted me a snow day which gives me the time to put together a Top 25 list
Here is my ranking....the number after the team is the AP poll rank
1. Oh St........3
2. Ariz...........1
3. Lville.........14
4. Ok Dt.........6
5. Mich St.......5
6 Iowa St........13
7. Wisc............4
8 Iowa.............22
9. Duke...........7
10. Kan..........16
11. Ky............15
12. Gonz.........24
13. Villa..........11
14. Cretn.........ORV
15. Mich..........ORV
16. Pitt.............ORV
17. Fla.............12
18. Syr.............2
19. Ark.............NR
20 SD St..........21
21. Wich St......8
22. Cinn............NR
23. Ore..............10
24. No Car.........19
25. Baylor...........9
28. The Bills .......NR
29. VCU..............NR
34. UMass...........23
Random thoughts
I don't think a win over RI will be enough to get on my list but a win over Dayton and we will make it....with the AP ...who knows. Much of it is based on name recognition, history, conference bias, emotion etc. As the season goes on the 2 lists come together a little more as the numbers wring some of the emotion out of the AP list. Another couple of wins and the voters will start to take notice of the Bills.
The teams from Wichita St and higher are all A+ teams ....the rest are A.
Outside factors can effect the numbers but the system only adjusts on the fly. An example would be Lville. They are rated #3 but just recently lost 2 key players for the season. It will be difficult for them to maintain that #3. Even though they have played 2 games and won them both without the 2 players their numbers are starting to slip.
There is generally more agreement with the first half of the list than the 2nd half.(Wiz vs AP) Most voters know about 10-15 good teams and then just fill out the rest of the card in a more random fashion so there tends to be more divergence on the lower half.
Hopefully, the next Top 25 list I put out will have the Bills on it.
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SLU..........A
VCU.........A
UMass......A
Day...........A-
GW...........B+ (one of 1st 4 out)
Rich..........B+
St. J...........B
LaS............B
St. B...........B
GM.............C+
RI................C
Ford.............C-
Duq..............C-
Random thoughts....
This is the first time since I have been doing this that we have not had any D's or F's
As you may remember, all teams rated A- and above are likely to make the tourney. So at this point, we should have 4 qualifiers plus a good shot at a fifth (GW)
Any differences between teams with the same grade are statistically insignificant.
Should be a fun season.
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Did you like the Yale game? Well, prepare for Yale 2 away. Rhode Island ( C ) is pretty much the same as Yale, numbers wise. This game will be like playing Yale in New Haven.
Here is what we need to do to win......
RI's 3pt % shooting is about the same as Yale (slightly below average)....so I am going to use the same #'s as last time....Hold them to 12 three pt att....2 or 3 made....22% from the arc. Their 3 pt guy is Munford (actually he is their go to guy overall..ave 15pts/gm)...so we need to focus on him.
Basically, we need to do what we did against Yale. For those of you that were worried about Yale, you need to be worried about RI. For the rest of us, we will anticipate the 5th best start in Bills history with a win over RI.
Random Stats.......
3pt D
......Made by opp....3rd in nation
......3pt %................3rd in nation
......3pt att................25th in nation
17.8 pts/gm...winning margin at home
Highest single game 3pt shooting ave (47.8%) since 2/9/13 against Richmond (47.8%)
We alway win when.....
we score at least 75 (7-0)
we hold the opp to 55 (7-0) ...hmm...75 & 55 ...that looks familiar
we shoot at least 46.2% (6-0)
we hold the opp to 43.5% (11-0)
This is 8th best start in Bills history and the best isince 1993-94
Sometimes, we overlook the fact of how good we really are. (I would say this is true the last 3 Januarys)
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Wiz I'm digging the new Avatar who designed it?
A tip o' the Bills cap ( a pointy one at that) to Billslasttermdropout.....he is quite the graphics guy....Nice job BLTD.
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Bills by 20. Yale 3 of 13 from behind the arc for 23%.
Sweet game...sweet numbers....4th game in a row where I have picked the exact number 3's made by the opposition. It looked bleak in the first few minutes when not only were we trailing but Yale already had 2 threes. I was taking some heat from the surrounding crowd....the non bill-ievers (newbies)...but in the end the Bills came through nicely.
Busy day tomorrow....Rhode Island spread, A-10 report card, and Top 25.....good day for snow.
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Wiz, I'd sure like to see this too. What major differences from the polls?
As I stated above, I want to get the A-10 report card out on Sunday. Tell you what, if 2 more people request a top 25 list by Sunday, I will try to crank one out....time permitting.
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OK, but no back up.
So list your top 25 teams as of NOW.
We will see how they do after March Madness.
You have not met condition #2....reasonable and relevant
Reasonable....The word NOW causes a fail....the fact that it is capitalized makes it a double fail. Right now I am working on the A-10 pre-conference report card which I would like to get out on Sunday.;....which might not be possible if I work on your random requests. It would be different if you were actually interested in the 25 but you would like the list to create more controversy.
Relevant...I usually put out a top 25 list when the Bills make it onto the list. After all this is a Billiken board. If there is enough interest maybe I will put one out early, if I have the time.
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Fraudulent. You say you "had Louisville, period".
Nope.
We were discussing January assessments, similar to last year, when we were in a similar position, before we closed with a rush, (16-2) when you and KenPom had us at 12 & 13. WHERE DID YOU HAVE LOUISVILLE, WICHITA STATE, MICHIGAN, and CUSE, then?
NOW you use a March bracketology challenge to support your case. Nice try.
I said then, and I say again, we are about 40th (RPI is 48) if we do it again, 16-2 type of finish, sure, we are top 15 or so. Last year you hit it with SLU, we did it, 16-2, but if you are so hot what did the rest of your top 25 look like Jan 1? (bizzleboy?)
Not "apples to apples"... ever heard that? it is common in the legitimate business world ("Back to School"). I question your statistical/data acumen.
We play a weak schedule from here, only a few competitive teams, we can do it again IMO, but Dayton-VCU-U Mass on the road, then the A-10 tourney, then win 2 games in NCAA is going to be a challenge.
As a matter of fact, I did have Louisville as my overall pick in Jan.as I did most of the year. I referred to the Billiken March Madness Bracket Challenge because it was posted and checkable there. (Something in writing because you are so trusting)
But that is not the point of this post. The point is that no matter what I write, it seems to bother you. If I answer you, then off you go on a different tangent. You don't seem to want answers , you want to sling arrows. For 2 years now, I have tried to explain what I do, to no avail. If you are looking for info on what my top 25 list is, how the A-10 stacks up or who will make the Big Dance ...I can help you. But if it is about ranting and rambling then I cannot help you. I do not look for you....you come looking for me. I only respond to you when I see my name mentioned in your posts (usually in a derogatory manner). I suggest if you find my posts offensive, then you should not read them. In the future, I will only respond to your posts if they meet the following conditions.....1. You are civil....2. Requests for information are reasonable and relevant. As a point of information, I will continue to read your posts as I find them highly entertaining....I just will not respond to them
Good luck to you sir....KenPom is all yours now.
Talk sense to a fool and he will call you foolish.
........Euripides, The Bacchae (Greek Tragedy)...405 BC
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I am not sold on us being 21st either. But I do think we are closer to 21st than we are to our rpi rank.
What bad teams have we lost to?
Colorado, San Diego St., Iowa, UMass, Gonzaga, Missouri, Illinois, Texas, George Washington, Oklahoma, Toledo. Those are the teams ranked 20-30 in the AP poll. If the Bills played all those teams on a neutral court, winning around half would not surprise me at all. So I don't think putting the Bills in that 20-30 range is THAT out of the question.
Against the 11 teams you list ....we go 8-3 with losses to Iowa, SDSt & Gonz....I think you are correct ..we are closer to 21 then RPI. I have the Bills at 29 now.
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I know the difference between "data analysis" and "predictive models" and "bullsh*t." KenPom with us at 21 is bullsh*t.
SLU is about 35th, 40th now, give or take, we haven't beaten anybody, but sure if we finish like last year, a 16-2 type run, beat Dayton, VCU,
U Mass, win the A-10 & A-10 Tournament, win two NCAA games, then sure, we will be Top 15-20.
Predictive model? Did KenPom and / or The Wiz predict Louisville to win it all last year? Michigan, Wichita State, Syracuse to get so far?
(bizzleboy, look up his rankings last year at this time)
LOL....As a matter of fact, if you check the Billiken Board March Madness Bracketology Challenge held on this site last March, you will see in fact I picked Louisville to win it all.....Oops.
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For the record, I never criticized Sagarrin, though he is not flawless. But KenPom and The Wiz, yes, I did. I prefer RPI though it is early for all of these models.
Last year we finished with a flurry, 16-2, and earned it! Beat some good teams.
At the time I was criticizing KenPom and The Wiz, we had not beaten a top 50 team and were about 12-5 and I said we were 40th or so. They had us 12th or 13th.
Same thing this year. Sure, if we go 16-2 again then we are in top 20 or so.
And do not start on the predictive model bs. We got hot, did the job, good for us.
I think I finally get it....
1. Data analysis...Using a weather analogy....Dave Murray is the Fox 2 meteoroligist with a long career that stretches back to forecasting on national TV.... He, with his foo foo computers and electronic weather maps to make prognostications. Ah, but we are not fooled anymore since we have been enlightened. We now know what Dave really does....He calls the weather bureau each day. Anyone can do it.. Anyone that believes otherwise is being taken in. Has anyone checked Dave's phone records.....Reality
2) Predictive models....Again, being enlightened I now realize these do not exist. Of course, it was pointed out to me that instead of trying to predict things that are most likely to happen (tip o' the cap to Descartes) it would better to predict things that are unlikely....hmmm ...maybe such as predicting the Bills rankings in the teens a couple of years ago while others had us in the 60's....and again last year when I had us in the teens early on ...it was pointed out this was poopy. When these things actually came to be ...the story is ...The Bills got hot...I "fell into it " (the prediction) Seems to me you can't have it both ways.. Or maybe in reality, you can have it both ways.
Poor KenPom ...he is not even here to defend himself.
So in summary....Data analysis is just calling up someone (Vegas or the weather bureau) who has data and repeating their stuff....if the final figures come out close ...it has nothing to do with probability or statisical analysis...it just proves Dave's a thief and a sham.
Further, predictive models are just wild shots in the dark that are like winning the lotto...you just "fall into it" when the Bills accidentally win a bunch in a row.
Well that about wraps it up.....wait there is one last loose end.
What about those predictions of the exact number of 3 point shots made by the Bills opponents... That just doesn't seem to fit in anywhere....hmmm....I know what it is
Oh, oh, oh
It's magic you know
Never believe it's not so
Pilot (1974)
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These things do even out in the long run....that's why Nov is always a tough month to forecast...limited data....more data=more accurate.
I have the Bills at #30....earlier in the season I was ahead of Pomeroy now he has moved ahead of me at least in regards to the Bills ranking.
With 1:55 left in the game, it was Bills by 5. Even when I miss on a spread, many times you will see the exact spread in the final 5 minutes. As to what happens once the game is decided, as mentioned previously, these things even out.
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A great win last night over Vandy....the irony is our win knocks them back to B-. Our numbers, as expected, improve though we are still rated A. We may get a few AP votes but no Top 25 yet. Look at this victory as a stepping stone...a wakeup call to those who haven't been paying attention.
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Yale is an average team ( C ) similar to SEMO now (SEMO has improved a little since we have played them). Pretty good rebounding team but nothing else stands out....just a C team.
Here is what we need to do to win.....
Yale likes to shoot the 3 ...they are just not that good at it....hmm, this sounds familiar. We need to hold them to 12 shots from the arc and making no more than 2 or 3. ...22% or less from 3.
If the Bills don't show for this game, the Bulldogs are good enough to beat us. If we leave them open on the 3 ....they will hit them. If we bother them, they could drop below 20%.
Right now we are tied for 8th place (with the 2011-12 Bills team) for the best start ...let's move into 7 th place with a win.
Sometimes, we overlook the fact of how good we really are.
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This is the 3rd game in a row where I have picked the exact number of 3's made by the opponent ( I skipped the analysis on the A&T game because it was a cupcake team and the stats didn't matter) This is done by using a foo foo computer and calling Vegas to get the exact totals...You ask for Big Ed... he has the numbers locked in a vault under the Strip.
Another great stat in this game was holding Vandy to 17.6% (nearly half of their average) from the arc....very impressive.
This was a very good win that will help our numbers. We won't get into the Top 25 with this win (maybe a few AP votes) and this won't boost us to A+ (we will remain A) but it is still a significant win in that you beat a good SEC team on the road. This win will at least catch some people's attention. This could be the stepping stone win.
This ties us for 8th best start in Bills history (with the 2011-12 team)
I will repeat what I said in the ISU 3 pt thread.....Sometimes, we overlook the fact of how good we really are.
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Just an update....
Even after we stopped them (27%) on the 3 the Sycamores have crawled back to the top of the list in 3pt shooting at nearly 44%. Just another testament to how good our D is. While I always put a little extra emphasis on 3 D, I believe a big factor in that game was the Bills stopping their 3. ...not only % but number of shots taken (11... also way below there average) This would have been a fine effort against most teams but against the #1 team (after our numbers are included in their totals) is pretty amazing. Sometimes we overlook the fact of how good we really are.
Tip o' the cap to the Bills.
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But that is not the point each individual game will be played and the probability to win the particular game will not be readily determinable until prior to the game. So the probability to win 15 games in a row may be 1.5% at this time, but taken individually we may indeed have a much greater probability to win the whole spread of 15 games than what is determinable at this point in time. Probability changes with time and with results.
My take on this thread is that it is about collective probability....probability of multiple consecutive events happening
Sagarin's chart in the OP shows the entire rest of the season and all the possibilities.
The chances of rolling a 7 are 1 in 6....the chances of rolling 3 consecutive 7's is 1 out 252.....The collective probability is 4 tenths of 1 percent.....yet each roll is always 1 of 6 (16.67%)
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Wiz, it's not timmerman's model. That was just a joke.
He does reference the site from time to time in his articles.
I would have been shocked if Timmerman had made any of the calculations
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Woof. I am on my phone and can't multi-quote, but this is directed at GOSLU68 as well...
Being favored does not mean that this predictor model expects us to actually win every game we are favored in. Each game is an independent event with a probabilistic outcome. Consider this illustration - we could be favored in all of our remaining games, with a 51% chance of winning each game individually. Despite being favored for each game, the model would NOT be predicting that we win out, rather it would result in an expected record of 9-9. In the same way, our predicted record builds in the probability of each game and calculates the likelihood across all possible outcomes, arriving at the most likely scenario given the current ratings. The way they estimate our final record as predicted by this model would basically be to add up each game's win probability (%/100) and add that sum to our current record.
I hope this brief explanation clarifies the picture somewhat...
This is correct. The cumulative probability of winning the next 13 is much less than the individual game probabilities. To simplify it further....let's say the Bills were favored in the next 2 games, each with a 51% chance of winning....the chances of winning both games games is 26% or about 1 in 4. Even a couple of games where we have a good chance to win (71%) ...winning both is just 50-50. So the chances of the Bills winning the next 13 games is about 2%....though I am not sure why we are focusing on 13 since Timmerman in his own table shows us being favored in the next 15 games. Our chances of winning the next 15 games is 1.4%. The chances of the Bills winning the next 10 games (best 2 loss Bills start in history) is 6.8%
I have no problem with the methodology that Timmerman/Sagarin use. I differ mainly on the point spread/prob %. At the high end ...say around 12 pts ...I show a 96% chance of winning vs T/S at about 85%....on a lower spread ...about 7.5 pts I am at 83%...T/S at 75%....our numbers come together at around 3.5 pts (about 62%) under 3.5 pts I am actually a littlle more conservative (lower % than T/S).
Finally....these are just numbers ....you've got to play the game......lest anyone forget the dreaded RI game
Overall .....good stuff.....Let's just beat Vandy.
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How many more wins do the Bills need to get before they start getting any type of top 25 votes?
I will change the question a little to read ...When can we make it to the top 25?....because it is always possible to get a few votes. As a point of reference, I have the Bills at 29. But even if I had them in the top 25 that is different than being ranked in the national polls which sometimes is more like a popularity poll. I rarely have a quarrel with the top 15,( except maybe the order) but i sometimes feel the pollsters are just guessing at 15-25 or just filling up their dance card.
So what does it take for the Bills to get ranked? ...A signature win (beating a ranked team) or a signature event (an unusal important event). I don't see any signature wins on the horizon. UMass is ranked but who knows where they will be by March. How about a signature event? Well, if the Bills win the next 9 (through George Mason) that would be significant....The Post headline would read ...Bills off to best start in their history....also a 14 game win streak....that would be an eye catcher. How likely is that to happen? It is possible....The key win in that stretch would be Dayton....right now I have them even. A win over Vandy and Dayton and we would have a good chance to run the table through the Mason game and then get ranked. Things that could speed the process a bit would be double digit wins against Vandy and Dayton.
To the point SLU72 made about GW getting some votes. They are a very good team ( B+ ....currently, I have them as last 4 out ) but not as good as the Bills (A) . They are receiving votes because they have a signature win over Creighton ...18th at the time. They could be ranked by the time we play them but by then we might also be ranked.
The road to the poll goes through Nashville.....just win
two teams that beat us on the tube
in Billikens.com Main Board
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While Iowa hanging with Wisc may be a surprise to some .....(AP)Wisc 4 vs Iowa 22 it wasn't to me ....(Wiz) Wisc 7 vs Iowa 8.....see top 25 thread.......
Also for you Wofford followers....they are still Wof-ful. While Wofford ( D+ ) managed to beat the mighty Samford ( F ) they fell to Davidson ( C- ) today.....there goes the RPI.