The Wiz

Hmm...you probably need an F- team to have a chance...someone like MS Valley St Delta Devils....I show the Bills would win that by 22.

That is why you have to wait for the first 8 games

General Outlook......We have reached S3...Significant Sample Size...8 games. From here on out the computer is mainly using real data. Things should be more "real" from this point forward....not just on my computer but on most forecasting tools. We reach this mile marker at C+ ...slightly above average. Unfortunately, in the big order of things that won't be good enough. B+ gives you a chance to Dance (about 25%) ....B usually means NIT. The Bills can still make some head way but they would have to get up to a B- in the next 4 games to show some promise ...no easy task. As for the A-10, if the the Bills are able to get to B- by the end of OOC play they have a chance to finish top 4...again no easy task. So what have we learned so far. That most mid majors need that "one guy" on the team to compete...that player that puts you over the top...that player who if he gets hurt ...your season is over...SIU is a good example with X.... He was Mr. Saluki as I mentioned in the pregame forecast. But if you look at our 4 losses you will see "that one guy" that puts the team over the top in each of those games. Do we have that ? Some think it was Parker. The computer says it doesn't know if he was the guy because he didn't play 8 games...but he was the leading scorer at the time he went down...so maybe. He will need another 4 games as the "old" Parker or he may need to start over and crank out another 8 games to get up to speed when he comes back. So is there hope going forward....I ran The Bills vs SIU game again (after the computer had a chance to "see the kids play") and of course it was not a 40 pt loss. Assuming we played a normal game and SIU played its regular game...SIU by 9...not great but much better than 39. So we have some work to do. The computer looks at it this way....At this point in time , our toughest game of the season so far and possibly for the year was USU. We will not play a better team than them AND we were close in that game. ...which means that there is nobody coming up who we can't beat as long as we play decent. To paraphrase Jim Carrey...."so you're telling me there's a chance".....Yes Game Preview....Drake comes into the game as a B+ team. The have 2 players we need to control to win... Devries their scorer and Brodie their shooter... 70%. ...The Drake weakness is their defense...Their attitude is go ahead and shoot we will outscore you. If we can get our D going again, we do have the ability to out score them. Won't be easy ...but I am "telling you there's a chance". Report Card.... ..Report card after the last game is negative...2 up ...5 down Let's see what things look like.... ...................SLU......................DRK........................SLU.............................DRK .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............C.......................B+.............................D.................................C+ FG%...............D+........................A-............................D-................................D- 3P%...............B+.........................C-...........................C-................................D+ FT%...............B-...........................A-.................................................................. Reb...............D-..........................D-.............................F+.................................B OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....3P%..........Def.....Reb Down.........Off......PPG...FT%.......Def....PPG...FG%...3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU FT%...Jimerson...90th...90.9% DRKE PPG...Devries..39th FT%.....Wright.........90th...90.9% FG%.....Brodie...11th...70.2% Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Parker ....Nov 17....Foot...fractured foot...out indefinitely Drake....none Keys to the Game......Stop Devries and Brodie WWN2D2W...Target slash...49/51/40/72....Hold DRK's top 2 to 27pts......Hold Brodie to under 50% on FG%...Match them on TOs and steals. Rebounding should be close this game.....In order to win we need to hold them to 73 pts. Bottom line....Use our defense to keep the Bulldogs on a leash and there will be no treat for Drake.

My computer is looking for 40 more points...Zhang...Bang...he got it ...40 more

Warning... Leave this post immediately if you have a weak basketball heart . The following will be ugly... Blowout definition...A lopsided score where your opponent plays great and you play terrible. Anatomy of a Blowout... Most of the my original post was about stopping Xavier Johnson...Not only did we not stop him at 15pts but he more than doubled it (31pts) . He shot 75%....FROM 3 (6-8)...75% from the arc is tough when you are by yourself in the gym practicing. But it wasn't just about X....Slash time...SIU...66/ 62/ 64...the Golden slash...Majerus use to talk about anytime a slash reached 180 (player or team) it was golden....and then there was the stinky slash...Bills... 43/22/ 58....not good. But it wasn't just about shooting...We got crushed on TOBS....We gave up 2 games worth of TOs...3 games worth of Blocks ... and 2 games worth of Steals AND in each category SIU did nearly 100% better than us....again not good. There were a few good things that happened on the Bills side but when you lose by nearly 40 to a team that just lost by nearly 30 to Ind St...the word good shouldn't come up. Every team has an off night but this was a complete break down...if only the computer could shoot the ball.

You may be onto something. I had SIU by 4, Kenpom had 5 and Vegas had 6.5 not to mention the Weather computer had no rain for today (as I dry off). Yes, I think you are correct , computers suck. Btw, what ever you are typing on...you may want to consider getting rid of it because all computers tend to work the same way....and they are all connected and they all talk to one another. When word gets out about what you have written they won't like it and what happens next won't be pretty. Computers bad , basketball good (sometimes)

Just a quick last minor adjustment... SIU by 3 The updated program is more sensitive than the older version....enough where it can still alter the spread even if neither team has played since the original forecast. It still shows SIU winning (the difference is still home field advantage) BUT by revising the spread the computer has for the first time cut into the home field advantage. The significance of this change is...while the computer thinks the 2 teams are evenly matched on a neutral court the Bills would have a slight edge ...Bills by 1.... ie The Bills are the better team by a hair. The other take away from the data is there is a difference between the USU game and the SIU game.....The USU game showed wild swings in the game which it decided made the game even but very volatile. This game should be more even in a traditional sense...less volatile closer to even throughout the game....a number of lead changes....a more enjoyable overall game experience than the USU game. Bottom line...X marks the spot...stop X = W...This game is winnable.

There are many paths to victory in this game. The computer sees these 2 teams as even...the difference being home field advantage. The Bills need to focus on one path and "slash" their way to a win.

General Outlook......So USU is projecting at 3rd in the MWC and a Big Dance participant...last 4 in ...56% chance to Dance...Why is this under general outlook? USU was hanging on at the end of the game and escaped with a victory...that game was winnable (see post game USU wrap up). It shows that we can play with top teams AND have a chance to win as long as we make some shots. ...particularly 2s. The other point here in discussing USU as it relates to the general outlook is that after the game USU is now an A- team ...They moved up because they beat us by 5. The take away is that USU is better right now than any team in the A10. The fact that we played toe to toe with them right down to the finish bodes well for us in conference play. Game Preview....Both The Bills and SIU are B- teams. The Bills are better on offense and SIU is better on D. ...It's pretty close on the stats ...the spread is pretty much home field advantage. Xavier Johnson is Mr. Saluki. I wouldn't say he is the whole team...but he just about is. Game should be close....if we make shots (especially 2s) , we win this game. Report Card.... ..Report card after the last game is negative...1 up ...3 down Let's see what things look like.... ...................SLU......................SIU........................SLU.............................SIU .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............C+.......................C.............................C-..................................B FG%...............D+........................C............................D+................................C- 3P%...............A-.........................B.............................B+................................A- FT%...............B...........................C+.................................................................. Reb...............D-..........................D+.............................F.................................B+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FT%..........Def.....none Down.........Off......PPG...Reb.......Def....PPG...FG%...3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU FT%...Jimerson...72nd...92.7% SIU PPG...Johnson...16th Asst... " "........82nd FT%......." " ......86th...92.2% Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Parker ....Nov 17....Foot...fractured foot...out indefinitely SIU... Sharp....G...Foot..Nov 6....out till mid Dec Hornecker...C....Ankle...Nov 6...out indefinitely Keys to the Game......Stop Johnson and don't foul him...see top 100...The Bills need to make some 2s....play 40 min...play like we did against USU in the final 4 min...in fact if we put up the same game slash we did against USU( a much better team on off & def than SIU) we win. WWN2D2W...Target slash...47/51/40/75....Hold Johnson to 15 pts...Beat them on TOs and steals to make up for any rebound deficit. Rebounding should be closer this game.....Hold them to 70 pts. Bottom line....If we play a full 40 min and don't dog it , we can send the Salukis back to the kennel.

I know ...it does sound unbelievable....but let's take a walk down USU lane for a moment... With 4:03 left in the game USU scores a layup and takes a 76-60 lead....ball game ...right ...not yet Fast forward to 1:11 left...with no time left on the shot clock and USU shooting 22.7% from the arc at that point they give the ball to Brown ...0-3 from the arc in the game...who then takes a final desperation shot as the shot clock buzzer is ringing and sinks the 3. Without that shot , the game is tied or as we would say in the title of this thread...EVEN at 76-76 with 18 sec left. The Bills would not have had to intentionally foul in a tie game. At that point I would say it is anybody's game or a winnable game. That is how close this game was....

This was his greatest game ever. Most points ever... 16 , most mins ever 21... most stats in a gm... 3 rebs ...2 ast...1 blk ...1 stl...he usually plays about 13 min/gm and averages about 7pts/gm ...I think at 21 min of his best ever plus fighting off Hargrove he was done. In his previous season at Ore he played 76 min for the whole season (14 games) and that was 2 years ago.

First, my condolences to those who bet the house and ice cream money on the "lock" game on USU with SLU getting 6.5pts. The point the computer was trying to make by having it as an even game was that this was a winnable game for the Billikens....and for all the doom and gloom on the board....this game was winnable. There were many chances to win. To me that final 3 USU took in the final minute with no time on the shot clock was a big one. At that point USU was shooting 22.7% and needed that shot for the win or had we fouled anyone else but Brown in that final minute ( their only good FT shooter...the team was shooting 38% from the charity stripe when he was fouled) ... Hmmm.... that doesn't sound like a team that dominated us....a lock team...a team trying to hang on in the final minute of the game. In the opening post I showed all the numbers for USU that were "Great" and most happened...yet the game was winnable. Here is something you won't see in the box score...USU shot a staggering 76.3% from 2P (55.9% is considered an A+ )...a team that does that is a "lock"...yet the game was winnable. Here is The Bills target slash from the opening post of this thread...with the most important being the second number(2P%)....45/51/38/72 and here is the actual slash...47/ 51.5 / 42/ 92...we beat the slash ...that is what gave us a chance to win...when we were trailing heavy that 2P number was way down...once it came up we were back in the game...had we started making the 2s 1 min earlier....the game would have been winnable. We beat them on TOs and steals too... So I asked the computer...what was the deciding factor in the game...what was the key stat....the answer...2nd chance points....the 10 extra rebs allowed them extra shots which was the difference maker...Bills 2nd chance points ..11...USU...17pts.....6 extra pts in in a 5 pt win....THE DIFFERENCE Think about that for a moment ...the "lock" team out rebounded us by 10 (40% more rebs than SLU) and was shooting 76.3% inside the arc (compared to the Bills fine 51.5%) AND YET the "lock" team needed extra shots to beat us in the final minute of the game. Bottom line....USU will be one of the top teams in the MWC .....they have a decent chance to make the Big Dance.... and yet against all odds (Vegas)...this game was winnable for The Bills BTW...did I mention the computer picked a close game because it knew the game was winnable for The Bills

You may be right... 3 tough games...USU..B+..SIU..B...Drke..B+...We will see what we are made of. Also, by the time we get to the Drke game the computer will have a full set of numbers. It will start to tighten the spreads at that point.

We were a B team coming into the WY game. In the WY game Parker played 28 min and scored 22 pts and was probably going to be coming out of the game in the 4th qtr when he got hurt. The next game was VT. Before we stepped onto the floor for the VT game there was no Parker effect on the stats....YET we dropped from B to B- before the game started. We have since played 3 games and are still at B-. We have gone from 3 D1 games to 6 D1 games and so far the computer has not seen a Parker effect. How can we be playing at the same level after losing a top player...Answer...others have stepped up to fill the gap. Would I like to have him back in the lineup...you bet. Will his being gone eventually affect the team...maybe(we have at least 6 more games without him). But at this point in time the computer says there is no Parker effect. I think missing 2 big men (Ezewiro and Magassa) on a short team is having more of an effect on the team. It is hard to make up height. Hopefully we can get 1 or both back soon.

No question...we have to make some shots (see slash above...especially 2s)...They are #2 ITN in 3P def....however we are far better from the arc than any team they have played so far. Again if we can make some shots and play without any mental letups we have a chance to win this game.

General Outlook......There has been a lot of talk this season about the A10 being down and that we are a 1 bid league. So I asked the computer if there was no automatic bid would the A10 get a bid...The answer was probably not. Chances of a bid to the A10 with no auto bid is 37%. Just another way of measuring the A10 regression...though it is still early and that might change but for now the computer is unimpressed with the league. We still have a couple more games to go before we have enough data to make any serious prognostications. Game Preview....This will be the Bills toughest challenge to date....We come into the game still clinging to B- while USU shows up with a grade of B+ and a lot of fancy stats to show they are for real. They are one of the top 2 pt shooting teams ITN. ..with 2 players shooting 63.6% and 62%. One of them Great Osoler (no it is not a typo...his name is Great) is Mr USU as he is listed in 4 key categories of top 100 players(see report card below) In addition they have 2 other players listed in 3 more top 100 areas. On top of this they have one of the best defenses ITN. So are we goners? No... the computer says we have a good chance to win this game. It says if we play like we did in the 1st half of the DART game ...we win by 7....but if we play like we did in the 2nd half we lose by 9. Most of the simulations fall around even....with about 70% showing a range of The Bills by 4 down to USU by 2. A TO or a missed layup could be the difference in the game. Make 2s (50.5%) and win. Report Card.... ..Report card for this game is neutral with 2 categories up and 2 down. Let's see what things look like.... ...................SLU......................USU........................SLU.............................USU .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............C+.......................B.............................C..................................A- FG%...............D+......................A+..10th ITN............C+................................A- 3P%...............A-......................C..............................B....................................A+..2nd ITN FT%...............C+......................D-....................................................................... Reb...............D..........................B.............................F....................................A OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none..........Def.....PPG...3P% Down.........Off......PPG...FG%.......Def....none Top 100 In The Nation SLU FT%...Jimerson...56th USU PPG...Osoler...28th Rebs....".....".....24th Blks....."....".....22nd FG%....Falslev...71st (63.6%)....Osoler...100th(62%) Asst....Brown II ...2nd Stls...Falslev...91st Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Parker ....Nov 17....Foot...fractured foot...out indefinitely USU... None Key to the Game......Make 2s...This is even more important this game as USU's strong suits are 2P% and 3P Def....Stop Osoler....Brown (their version of Yuri)will feed Osoler and that is their play. WWN2D2W...45/51/38/72....Hold their top 3 scorers to 34 pts...Hold USU to 72 pts...Stop Osoler...Hold him to less than 50% FG%...7 rebs.....1 blk.......SLU TOs 10 or 3 TOs less that USU... Bottom line....Play 40 min of focused and fast bball....If The Bills can make some 2s, it could turn out to be a not so "GREAT" day for USU

Well , let's see what we have here....I have the Bills as a B- team...Ken has them as a C+ team(168-slightly above average)...Seems like ole Ken and me are pretty close together. If I am way off, then you are saying Ken is way off. I think Ken would disagree with you.

I think if you look at all 363 teams we are above average...I have The Bills at B-....Vegas is more optimistic with a B...KenPom is at a C+. It is still early....I think the smoke will clear in the next few weeks....we have a lot of close games coming up....In a close game early in the season where there is less data...the X factor becomes more important. Will the Bills win those games? Depends on how much of the X factor they have....How bad do they want it? Can they focus for 40 min? Can they make half of their 2s ? Stay tuned.

I think it is important to use KenPom's disclaimer..... "Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions." If you show the entire season...he has us winning only 4 more games for the rest of the season ...yet using his own projections he shows us winning 9 more on his total season....which means he thinks there is a good chance we will win some of those games listed. How does he do that? By putting in the disclaimer above....Cumulative probabilities are different than individual game forecasts...thereby creating the above confusing which leads to the disclaimer. Bottom line.... A few days ago Ken had us beating UT St I wouldn't put a lot of faith in any forecast that goes out more than 1 game at a time.

A couple of points here....First , let me say , I am not a defender of Ford BUT I am a defender of the facts and based on his latest interview (last night -post game) he said the following..... the first statement he made was that last night's poor play against DART "is on me"....which means he takes responsibility for the loss... The second major statement he made was ..."I can fix it"....He did not say I alone can fix it. Let's not make things worse than they are. During that interview last night , he was upset.... as mad as I have heard him publicly. Things are not going as planned. Some of it his fault...some of it not. Right now we are an above average team BUT not good enough for post season play. But it is still early...we haven't even reached a minimum data size yet. Generally , the time to review the season prospects are after the OOC play is complete....usually by then ...you are who you are. The Bills are currently B-...they need to get to B by Xmas to keep on the right path.

To paraphrase Mark Twain...the reports of my point spread missing in action are greatly exaggerated. As you can see from the original post , It has been up since last Tues.. At first , it looks like the computer was on to something ...it got the spread right for the 1st half...11pts and for the game it looks like it just had an extra 1...11 instead of 1....but in the end the computer's forecast proved prophetic. From the original post above...... Weak shooting continues to plague The Bills especially on close in shots. I will add a 4th category to the slash line (2P%) until the issue improves. As you all know The Bills have a number of problems but the computer has determined that the missed 2s are leading factor leading to losses and smaller than expected spread outcomes. The target to get The Bills back on track is 50.5% from inside the arc. In the last 2 games The Bills have shot 35.1% and 41.7% from 2P land. They are averaging 41.9% for the year which grades out at F+. They need to start making the short ones. ..We shot another dismal 42% from 2P land. That number will be costly if it continues....both in spreads (which is a big part of NET rankings) and wins. We have got to fix this and fix it quick. If you still don't believe this is a serious issue, all you have to do is drill down into the micro stats of this game. In the 1st half the Bills shot 50% from inside the arc (remember that the computer's target for The Bills is 50.5%) and the result was an 11 pt lead at the half.....what a coincidence. In the 2nd half The Bills shot a 36% 2P shooting rate good for an F- and wound up losing the 2nd half by 10 and almost the game. Again, there were some good things that happened ...not the least of which we won the game....And there were some nice individual performances BUT if we don't start shooting 50% from inside the arc , it will be a very long season. I heard Ford's post game interview and he was mad and upset....He said this poor performance was on him...and he can fix it....Don't know if he reads the board but he did focus on the issue of shooting inside the arc...hmmm...another one of those coincidences. Let's hope he can fix it and do it quickly as the competition ramps up quickly starting on Tues.

General Outlook......Putting this forecast up a bit early because neither The Bills or DART have a game before Sat.....Weak shooting continues to plague The Bills especially on close in shots. I will add a 4th category to the slash line (2P%) until the issue improves. As you all know The Bills have a number of problems but the computer has determined that the missed 2s are leading factor leading to losses and smaller than expected spread outcomes. The target to get The Bills back on track is 50.5% from inside the arc. In the last 2 games The Bills have shot 35.1% and 41.7% from 2P land. They are averaging 41.9% for the year which grades out at F+. They need to start making the short ones. Game Preview....The Bills are still grading out overall at B-. Their opponent this Sat is a weak DART....not terrible like a LeMoyne College but still bad ...overall grade is D. If The Bills can get back on track they could turn this game into a blowout. Report Card.... ..Report card for this game is weak...All offense was down except FT shooting which was up and Def 3P% which remained the same. Let's see what things look like.... ...................SLU......................DART........................SLU.............................DART .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B-.......................F-.............................C-..................................D- FG%...............C-......................F-.............................C...................................F- 3P%...............A-......................F-.............................B-....................................D FT%...............C+......................B....................................................................... Reb...............D..........................C-.............................F....................................D+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FT%..........Def.....none Down.........Off......All but FT%.......Def....All but 3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU None DART None Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Parker ....Nov 17....Foot...fractured foot...out indefinitely DART... None Key to the Game......Make 2s WWN2D2W...46/51/40/72....Hold their top 2 scorers to 20 pts...Hold DART to 70 pts....Rebs even...TOs 10 Bottom line....If we can make our 2s (especially the close in ones) then The Big Green will lose it's sheen. BTW...Did I mention the thing about the 2s?

I think you missed the point ....the computer is not using 55.6% as the 3 pt target ....it was using 40%...Coming into the WSU game The Bills were averaging 42.9% (12th ITN) ....even the last 2 games which were way off the mean, things still came together in a divergent manner. We shot 55.6% against VT and 27.5% against WSU...averaging out to 41.6%...still slightly above the computer's forecast. So the numbers were in line...The Bills just needed to make some shots. BTW...I told the computer that you called it a Homer....It said that it had nothing to do with The Iliad but it would be happy to discuss it with you on another thread

I will try to make this as painless and quick as possible. In the original post , I spoke at length of the problem of missed 2s especially layups and bunnies. The game against VT we shot a dismal 35%...this game was a little better at 41.7% but still a far cry from 51% target necessary to win and make spreads. The real difference between the WSU and the VT game was the 3P shooting. In the loss to VT we shot an amazing 55.6% from the arc which kept us in the game and pushed us to 12th ITN in 3P shooting percent. This game we shot less than half of that...27.5%( F- )...You can't win games with this kind of shooting. Final painful factoid...The projected slash that I put up every game that factors into the spread and ultimately whether we win or lose is based on The Bills average shooting, not a wishful projection. With that in mind, the Bills fell four 2PM shots short and four 3PM shots short. Which means had the Bills had just an average night against WSU ...we would have scored 20 more points AND WON THE GAME BY 1 pt. To me it looks like the computer gets the numbers right BUT there is one thing the computer can not do....It can't get on the court and make shots. The saying does not read...Go see the computer play....The saying is...Go see the kids play.....and if the kids don't play, they don't win.

General Outlook.... A key component of the WWN2D2W going forward will be the golden slash...48/51/40/ 72...with the emphasis on the 2P%. Not only on the VT game but on the games we won but missed the spread, the issue was 2P shooting...many of these shots were layups and bunnies. Game Preview....As you can see by the spread this is going to be a close game WSU comes in as a B team...The Bills at B-....If we make the golden slash we win. Won't be easy as they have a couple of 6'10" guys. We have the advantage in 3 P shooting ...they have it in Reb. Report Card.... Let's see what things look like.... ...................SLU......................WSU........................SLU.............................WSU .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B.........................B-.............................C..................................C FG%...............C+......................B-.............................B-...................................A- 3P%...............A+...12th ITN.....C.............................B-....................................B FT%...............C........................C....................................................................... Reb...............D+........................A.............................F+....................................C- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....3P%..........Def.....Rebs Down.........Off......FG%...FT%...Reb.......Def....FG%.....Reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU TOs/Gm....50th ITN WSU None Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Parker ....Nov 17....Foot...fractured foot...out indefinitely WSU... Cortes...Nov 6...out for season...eligibility issues Keys to the game.... Golden slash(see below)...beat them in scoring in the 4th qtr...Make some FTs...could be a difference maker. WWN2D2W...48/51/40/72....Hold their top 3 scorers to 35 pts...Keep them to 70 pts....Our rebs + stls= WSU rebs...beat them on TOs by 3 Bottom line....If we make the slash...we can Shock the Shockers.