[The Bills over ISU by 15]

On 11/22/2021 at 9:34 PM, The Wiz said:

Nice post.

In order to address your point, let's look at the last game with Mercer....a terrible shooting FT team....Yet against us, instead of shooting low to mid 60% area, they shot 80%.  Yet that extraordinary performance yielded them 2 extra pts over what was expected and made no difference. FT shooting will only make a difference in a close game.

In ISU's case, they take a lot of FT /gm...29.  When you play poor teams you get fouled more. The poor teams can't defend the dominant team so they tend to foul more. I have already baked in 76.9% FT in the model. We won't give up 29 FTA,  but for this example let's say we do....let's also say that ISU does the impossible and shoots 100%.  We give up an extra 7 pts and we still win easily.

Imagine that FT shooting is a knife....and that FG% and 3P% are guns.  To quote Indiana Jones....Never bring a knife to a gun fight.

If we lose this game, it won't be because of FT shooting...it will be because we didn't bring ammo for the guns.

Here is hoping that The Bills bring out the big guns in BP!

Weapon ammunition tends to run out Maybe players just get tired and can't perform at their best? Physical training usually helps to improve this feature.

[4 game observations and surprises]

6 hours ago, AnkielBreakers said:

French was better in pure scoring and maybe defense. We ran plays for him, where he would get the ball on the outside and attack. Okoro really is only good at receiving the ball from a pass or a board, and putting it in. However, French shot 33% from FT, and by his senior year, we used him as less of an option. His turnovers when setting up a drive did not help either. We couldn’t afford the wasted possessions. If Okoro continues to shoot decently from the line, he is definitely a good replacement, and it is a wash between them. It is funny that shooting really really really badly from the line can negate so many other positives.

That's for sure! How many good players didn't get a spot just because of bad shooting.