While Rich, Xav and Tem will end up in some order 1, 2, 3, the critical game for who will end up #1 is the Rich game at Xav. The excitement is who ends up at #4. RI is likely to run the table and end up 11-5. RI plays Ford and Char at home and away at SBU and UMASS. It would be a surprise if RI does not run the table. Their RPI is 25 so the dance is likely for RI with a 4th place finish.
SLU is the only team that has a real shot at catching RI for fourth place. Beating DUQ at home is essential. Then we need a win against Xavier or Temple at home, or at Dayton. We could lose all three of those games but just one win gives us an 11-5 record and the tie breaker with RI. If we were to win 2 of those 3 we have a guaranteed fourth place finish or even better depending on the tie breakers. Some may think that unlikely but that is the excitement of having home games with XAV and TEM. The fact that we beat Richmond at home way back on January 9th certainly raises that possibility when you consider how the team has matured. Cassidy scoring, Salecich playing solid, Willie coming on strong, Ellis shooting 50% at the 3, and Kwamain being Kwamain. Conklin, Smith and Remekun have also earned respect.
The big question may be how Charlotte finishes. They play SJU and RICH at home and away at GW and RI. A 10-6 finish for CHAR is most likely. If we finish 10-6, we end up in sixth place loosing the tie breaker with CHAR. Assuming we win our home tournament game, a 5th place finish would mean a game against RI in the quarter finals and greatly increases the likelihood that we make the final four in the league tournament. A 6th place finish means we would have to beat one of the top 3 in order to make the semifinals. If we beat Xavier at home Wednesday, let the speculation begin. We have the toughest remaining schedule.
1. RICH 11-2 – @XAV, DAY, @CHAR
2. XAV 10-2 – @SLU, RICH, @FOR, SBU
2. TEM 10-2 – DAY, @LAS, @SLU, GW
4. SLU 9-3 – XAV, DUQ, TEM, @DAY
5. CHAR 8-4 – SJU, @GW, @RI, RICH
6. RI 7-5 – FOR, @SBU, CHAR, @UMASS
7. DAY 7-5 – @TEM, UMASS, @RICH, SLU
