I'm With thicks .....

[Taj79]

... as promsied from below!!! Guarded optimism is welcome .... but having been with this program for nearly thirty years and throwing out the four that are the Claggs years, the Hughes year and the Miracle in Memphis year, I need to be shown a whole lot before I start bankingon some of these high-ended predicitons and forecasts.

I used to get carried away as well. I'll never forget the letdown that was the year of the JUCO .... Manuel, Tadysak and Ivester. Six newcomers with less than stellar returnees is my reasoning. Show me and surprise me are my buzz words for the upcoming year.

[3star_recruit]

I remember at least a half dozen posters saying we would be better than last year but recall only person (nark) getting much more specific than that. Personally, I will be disappointed with another 16-14 campaign. Such a record indicates that we will again lose to the likes of SMS and Houston, get swept by Marquette and only win 3 games on the road. I can't accept that.

[jjray]

I'm trying not to get set expections just yet. Before last season started, I expected something like the final result we got--a game or two over 500--but not the way it happened. After we lost the first two games (and especially after the Houston loss), I just did not see any way we could even get to 500 for the year much less garner an NIT bid. What a rollercoaster.

All that said, I am guardedly optimistic about our 2003-2004 squad. There will undoubtedly be more athleticism on the court and, also, should be better outside shooting with the additions of Bryant and Clarke (and, hopefully, Drejaj shall be more consistent with his shooting this year). We have JJ to backup Sloan and Izik as a potential weapon at 3. Yes, we lost Marque which is huge but there were many times last year when the offense would dissolve into throw the ball to Marque with the 4 other guys standing around watching to see what he can do. Everyone will have to be involved on the offensive end this year which could make us stronger as a team.

The only potential hole I see is at center but only from the defensive standpoint. Offensively, I don't see how it is possible that Frericks / Ian can produce less than KB / CB (absent injury). Our coaching staff has shown the ability to turn players with some level of athletic ability and big desire into defensive gamers. Brad must feel that he can get defense from Frericks and Ian or they would not be on the team.

[billiken_roy]

3 star, while i wouldnt be happy with a 500 or thereabouts record, i am not expecting much more than that at this time. now come fall practices and we see that the young man from greece is for real, fericks isnt travis tadyshak, and i/o has indeed buffed up and expanded his game, i would feel a lot better about being enthused. then if after the first few games we see that the next in line to the "billiken goto throne" has emerged, i might jump on the ncaa bandwagon, but as i detailed in my long post last night, i am not convinced we kept up with the other teams in the conference in our recruits and we definitely got hurt with the exit of marque and kenny imo. but for now, my enthusiasm is tempered by the unknown.

[slu72]

champs in Steve's poll last year (although I did have the exact final record my projected road map was quite a bit different than the actual route taken), I will jump into this debate. This is way tooooo early for forecasts. UB will be sewing a whole new tapestry this year. At least last year he had had a year to work with what was coming back, which besides MP wasn't a whole lot. However, I don't believe it is to early to say who has to come up big in order to give us any shot at a post season bid. First and foremost, UB's going to have coach his a** off this year to have any shot. I think that's a given. Players that cannot disappoint: Bryant, Frericks, and IO. Players who will deliver what we normally get: Fish, Sloan, and Varner. One comment on Sloan: I think this is going to be his year to shine. He's going to be the team's spiritual leader and he has to have some confidence in his offensive game after the way he closed last year. Mystery player who could rise: AJ. That opening game in CUSA tourney still makes me smile. Can he come near that on a consistent basis? If he does we've got ourselves a Steve Logan. No expectations: Zorba, JJ, Clarke, and Morris. Bottom line: If Frericks is a D force in the middle and Bryant can hit for 18-19/ppg, IO causes matchup problems, and Sloan is a force, I think we'll be pleasantly surprised. If they struggle we're in for a long year. Face it we don't have anyone coming back or coming in, ala Larry the legend or JLove, that is making other teams fear us. Here's one guarantee: all the mags will pick us between eight and six finish.

[billiken_roy]

18-19 ppg? dont have much in the way of standards do you? :-) does reggie know he is gonna have to score at that level yet? wow! if reggie scores 18-19 ppg he far exceeds what i am expecting.

[cheeseman]

Brad is not going to turn this thing around in 1 year - keep in mind that even though this his second season, he has not even had a full calendar year under his belt. I hope we are better but if we can hold serve, I will take it. The key is to keep showing growth in the program and that happens with not only wins but gains in recruiting and facilities, and overall competiveness.

[Quality Is Job 1]

(First things first: I appreciate Taj's coming to my aid.)

I don't mean to preach gloom and doom here, as Rich insinuated in a post in another thread. Yes, last year I projected 20 wins and an NCAA Tournament berth based on what all the Bills had returning, but I failed to take into enough account the effects of the coaching change. This year I'm lowering my expectations based on losing the heart and soul of the team, having not much production returning, and having six newcomers for Coach Brad Soderberg to fit into the puzzle.

I'm looking forward to this season as much as any other, if not more. I'm anxious to see the newcomers. I want to see if the Bills are more athletic and shoot better. I want to see if the teams scores more points per game while remaining very tough on defense. I want to see if Reggie Bryant can score 15 to 16 points per game. I'm looking forward to seeing what Justin Johnson brings to the table. I want to see if Brandon Morris makes the offense run more smoothly. I believe I will really enjoy this Billikens season, but I'm not penciling the Bills in for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. I think the record will be about the same as it has been the past two seasons, give or take a game or two. But I'm not saying anyone should be content with that, because we should be looking forward to NCAA Tournament appearances (and beyond) every year. Just remember that Soderberg is in his second year here and has had little to work with. I expect improvement every year, save for a (possible) slight dip in the record this year. Given the situation this season, I would be ecstatic with any postseason for these Bills.

Bottom line: I'm not saying this year's team will be worse than last year's team -- and I do realize that this year's team has more upside than last year's team, but also more question marks at the present -- but the pieces might take longer to coalesce and the record (against a tough schedule) might look worse: like 15-14 or 14-14. I'M NOT preaching the gloom and doom of anything so bad as 11-17 or worse.

[billiken_roy]

thicks and i would be fun together discussing the billikens at a bar right now. we would just keep telling each other we agree.

[Mobile-iken]

Definitely do not expect a lynching from me, I love the differing opinions!

[SluSignGuy]

nm means no message

[aj_arete]

One of the reasons for my pessimism for last year was talent and schedule. Even with the fantastic finish of last year, I still rate their talent level as substandard. I do believe that team overachieved greatly and for that I commend Coach Brad.

Let's do a brief overview. Kenny Brown was inept on the offensive end and for 1 and 1/2 years had difficulty making layups. While I admire Diener's heart and perseverance, he only had one Div I skill... shooting. Fisher would be fantastic against superior competition and then disappear against the nondescript. They really only had one scoring option and it's miraculous what Marque Perry did in the last quarter of the season with all of the attention he got.

Then let's talk about the schedule. I was disappointed not in Coach Brad scheduling Arizona, but scheduling middling teams from major conferences. I think if he limited his schedule to two or three real tough teams and scheduled a couple of more cupcakes that SLU makes the NCAA last year. Then look at CUSA, I thought there was a lot of experience in CUSA and that it would be very competitive. Of course, it was.

Now let's look at next year. While SLU loses Perry, I think there's more balance this year with the addition of Bryant, a more physically mature Ohannon, and any kind of offensive production from Frericks and the Voyayosius (sp?). Frericks only has to make layups to be an upgrade over Brown. The presence of Frericks and Voyayosius has to be an upgrade in rebounding, even if they lose a bit in the defensive presence.

Now let's look at the schedule. The nonconference schedule should be similar, however I expect CUSA to not be as competitive. Each of the elite teams will be losing key components to their team. Marquette losing Wade will be especially difficult to replace.

With Coach Brad at the helm, I do expect 10 wins or more from this team in CUSA. For one, the talent will be upgraded in terms of speed and size. Now skill level is difficult to judge without seeing anyone, but that shouldn't be hard to meet given last year's situation. I really think the schedule should be more favorable for the Billikens with CUSA in a rebuilding phase. That should equate to around 18 or more wins this year and a bubble position for the NCAA.

[davidnark]

For as long as I can remember, no SLU team has had a prototypical D1 player at each of the five positions. Last year was a prime example (Fisher at point, Drejaj at small foward, Perry at shooting guard, etc.).

This year's team is one of the few SLU teams in recent memory that will have a true point guard (Morris), a true shooting guard (Bryant), a long and athletic small forward (Izik), a respectable power forward (Sloan), and a legitimate center (Frericks). Even more encouraging, this team should have decent backup players at nearly every position.

If Brad can find a way to coach these guys, then we should have a shot at a real good season.

[aj_arete]

All else equal, I will go with Coach Brad every time. Now I respectfully disagree with you saying that Sloan is a respectable power forward, however I agree that SLU will be a more prototype Div I team next year.

Now I was really encouraged with last season, but let's remember that the team was 6-7 in nonconference play and started off 2-7 in CUSA play. While one can cite players adjusting to a new coaching staff, we also have to say that SLU came within a couple of Perry fantastic finishes of finishing with 13-15 wins. Upon reflection, I just don't think the Billikens were that talented last year and I would guess that Brad would agree with me. However, I do think they're in the right direction so far.

[billiken_roy]

aj said, "I was disappointed not in Coach Brad scheduling Arizona, but scheduling middling teams from major conferences. I think if he limited his schedule to two or three real tough teams and scheduled a couple of more cupcakes that SLU makes the NCAA last year."

the only reason we had the rpi we had was because of the scheduling. had brad dropped the "middling teams" and scheduled more "cupcakes" we would have had no shot at an ncaa berth imo.

[billiken_roy]

nark, come on, sloan is not a power forward. he is a sg/sf playing his heart out at power forward. and nothing about fericks that i have read makes me think of the typical center. i think of wes unseld. of course wes is what, 25 years past his playing days so he would be excused for being around 290 lbs now.

[Quality Is Job 1]

>Now let's look at next year. While SLU loses Perry, I think

>there's more balance this year with the addition of Bryant,

>a more physically mature Ohannon, and any kind of offensive

>production from Frericks and the Vouyoukas (please note the spelling). Frericks

>only has to make layups to be an upgrade over Brown. The

>presence of Frericks and Vouyoukas has to be an upgrade in

>rebounding, even if they lose a bit in the defensive

>presence.

Is it perhaps premature to expect a marked increase in scoring from Izik Ohanon? While it may be true that Tom Frericks need only make layups (AND FREE THROWS) to be an upgrade offensively over Kenny Brown, it's not as automatic as you think. Until he actually plays a game for SLU, we won't know. I think the statement that the mere presence of Frericks and Ian Vouyoukas upgrades the team's rebounding is laughable. Brown was a pretty good rebounder but he didn't have much help. Frericks might not be as good as Brown. The Billikens have been a poor rebounding program with the exception of the last two years of Baniak, Heinrich, and Tatum. Even then, the Bills rebounded as a team, with guards like Justin Love and Maurice Jeffers pitching in a lot. The Bills have a lot to prove in the rebounding area (according to Coach Soderberg, the defensive possession isn't over until the rebound has be secured), and I'll be looking for it -- but we won't be able to just throw Tom Frericks's and Ian Vouyoukas's jerseys out on the floor and outrebound the opponents.

>Now let's look at the schedule. The nonconference schedule

>should be similar, however I expect CUSA to not be as

>competitive. Each of the elite teams will be losing key

>components to their team. Marquette losing Wade will be

>especially difficult to replace.

While each of the elite C-USA teams may be losing key components, they are returning better players who can step up and they are bringing in more talented recruits. Furthermore, other C-USA teams aren't standing in place, either. I expect DePaul, UAB, and Charlotte to be improved. Louisville, Marquette, Cincinnati, and Memphis will still be tough. SLU could easily slip to eighth place. Bottom line: Conference USA will be even more competitive.

>With Coach Brad at the helm, I do expect 10 wins or more

>from this team in CUSA. For one, the talent will be

>upgraded in terms of speed and size. Now skill level is

>difficult to judge without seeing anyone, but that shouldn't

>be hard to meet given last year's situation. I really think

>the schedule should be more favorable for the Billikens with

>CUSA in a rebuilding phase. That should equate to around 18

>or more wins this year and a bubble position for the NCAA.

You have a lot of guts to say that SLU will go at least 10-6 in conference this year. Remember, they won't have two games against East Carolina. They will play 10 teams once and Charlotte, Marquette, and DePaul twice. Let's see which five teams they'll play at Savvis before announcing 10 wins.

[davidnark]

Frericks is 6'9" to 6'10" and 250 plus. There aren't too many guys in college basketball that will be much bigger than him. With those dimensions, he is a true college center.

Sloan is a little skinny to play the power forward, but he is a legitimate 6'7". At 6'8" and 215lbs., JJ may be more of a true power forward than Sloan.

It wasn't too long ago that our starting centers and power forwards included 6'3" Donnie Dobbs, 6'4" Jeff Harris, and 6'4" David Robinson.

[aj_arete]

Thicks says, "Is it perhaps premature to expect a marked increase in scoring from Izik Ohanon?"

My Response: I guess we have to define marked increase. No, I don't expect Izik to be averaging in the mid-to-upper teens. However, I do expect him to around double-digits. For one, he's skilled with a variety of post moves and a decent shot. Two, I have a lot of respect for the strength coach at SLU, so I'm confident that he will be able to adapt to CUSA's physicality.

Thicks says, "I think the statement that the mere presence of Frericks and Ian Vouyoukas upgrades the team's rebounding is laughable."

My response: Is it really laughable? As you have said SLU has historically been inept in this area. So why would it be difficult to meet such low standards. Why would we jump to the conclusion that SLU will be weak in rebounding because you imply they have always been weak in rebounding? For one, Soderberg's philosophy of recruiting varies significantly from Spoon and Romar, so making a comparison to previous Billiken squads is 'laughable'. If you haven't notice, SLU will field one of its biggest teams in history and I happen to think height and size contribute to rebounding just a little bit.

Thicks says, "I expect DePaul, UAB, and Charlotte to be improved. Louisville, Marquette, Cincinnati, and Memphis will still be tough. SLU could easily slip to eighth place. Bottom line: Conference USA will be even more competitive."

My response: The key word is competitive. I do expect CUSA to be more balanced, and doubt there will be a dominant, Top 10 team with the possible exception of Louisville. With the playing ground more level and more newcomers in the league, strong fundamental play and coaching will make more of a difference. That is why I think SLU has a chance to duplicate or improve on last season.

Summary: It's really early to start making predictions. This was just a rough estimate before seeing anyone. Trust me, my predictions are done with pencils, so I understand why Billiken fans should be cautious. I'm just more optimistic than last season.

[aj_arete]

True, our RPI would have taken a hit. However with Arizona and another major conference team on the schedule, I think 19 or 20 wins would have been good enough to get SLU to the Big Dance.

This is just a personal opinion, but I think SLU would have been better offer scheduling 3 or 4 really tough games with elite teams without requiring a return home game. Even though the chances of them winning any of those games are very slim, their RPI jumps up. Then they can lighten the schedule with cupcakes. So if they can go into conference play with 8 or 9 wins, I think they're in good shape to make the NCAA with above .500 play in CUSA.

[Billiken Rich]

Looking at the schedule and these players and Brad's admittedly short history as a head coach, I'll be upset if we don't come out at least .500. It's possible that we could be surprised again with a stretch run to the post season. I rather expect this will be the case.

Next year however I'll be calling for Brad's ouster without seeing more serious improvement.

Last year too Happy. This year too Gloomy.

[willie]

I think IO can be a very strong rebounder if he can stay out of foul trouble. Without doing the math from the stat sheet I would be surprised if he didn't lead the team in rebounds per min. played. His problem was staying out of foul trouble. At Louisville he fouled out in about 8 min. of play. Hopefully greater strength will cut down on the reaching. I'll keep saying this, He is the key to our team.

[3star_recruit]

You can rest easy about Frericks' weight. I saw him last week talking with a trainer outside of the Simon Rec center. He's a solid 260 lb at the most.

[Quality Is Job 1]

>Looking at the schedule and these players and Brad's

>admittedly short history as a head coach, I'll be upset if

>we don't come out at least .500. It's possible that we

>could be surprised again with a stretch run to the post

>season. I rather expect this will be the case.

>Next year however I'll be calling for Brad's ouster without

>seeing more serious improvement.

>

>Last year too Happy. This year too Gloomy.

You said you'll be upset with anything less than .500; I'm projecting around .500.

You said you foresee a stretch run that will get the Bills into the postseason; I recognize the Bills' upside but want to wait to see how the team comes together, with all of the newcomers.

Are we really that far apart? I was definitely too hyped last year, but I can't see how I'm so gloomy this year.

Let's not talk about next year just yet, but I'll throw out the hint that the thougt of next year has me salivating a little bit (I hope Brad Soderberg lands a couple of more athletic and exciting recruits to go along with Dwayne Polk in the coming months).

[billiken_roy]

i visited west pine to deliver my season tix money and renew my billiken club membership this morning. i was told that fericks is an extremely hard working kid. he is in the gym and weight room religiously and leaves dripping with sweat. he will be AT LEAST the equal of kenny brown.

now, i havent seen it with my own eyes yet, but to hear that from inside folks does begin to put my mind at ease. it is now beginning to sound as though we have a better shooting chris heinrich than travis tadyshak. i would be happy with that.