slu72 Posted February 6, 2006 Share Posted February 6, 2006 Ok, assume the best we win out and win 2 tourney games...we're 21-10. What would be our expected RPI? Mid to high 40's? Would this get us in? Would we be on the bubble? Would we be a forget about it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 6, 2006 Share Posted February 6, 2006 did an anylsis on scenarios after the first Xavier win and basically came to the conclusion that 7-2 and a win in the A-10 tourney would probably get us in. We have since gone 3-1. I do believe this was before Pomeroy corrected for our semi-home games which dropped us down 8-10 spots. I think in short, if we go 6-1 and win 2 in the A-10 I don't know how they could keep us out. unfortunately I don't think we'll go 6-1 so really our best chance is to get in the top 4 and earn the first round bye. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SShoe Posted February 6, 2006 Share Posted February 6, 2006 show some faith. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted February 6, 2006 Share Posted February 6, 2006 I'm with K over S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjray Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 We're currently 12-9, 6-3. Here is the remaining schedule: Feb. 11th @Dayton Feb. 15th @Duquesne -------------------- Feb. 18th Temple Feb. 22nd Rhode Island Feb. 25th @Charlotte Mar. 1st Dayton Mar. 4th @La Salle If we beat Dayton on the road (one we should win ... but one the SLU Billiken of a month ago could easily lose), we have a cupcake next in Duquesne. That puts us at 14-9, 8-3. I like our position at that point. We'd have to go 4-1 from that point forward, doable but hard. That would put us at 18-10, 12-4. Not bad but not a tournament team. I think we then have to win 2 in the A-10 tournament. If one of those two is over GW, we're in for sure. If we win 2 in the A-10 tournament and lose in the finals, we'll be 20-11. We'd finish 2nd in the A-10 so I find hard that they would keep us out. That's a lot of Ws to finish out the season. Let's get past Dayton first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guest Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 bills will be lucky to go 4-3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 since Pomeroy's computer basically predicts us to go 4-3 to end the season I'm going to go out on a limb and say we won't be LUCKY to do what is expected of us. http://kenpom.com/sked.php?team=St.%20Louis&t=p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluecrewwebmaster Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 If we want in the tourny either us OR GW has to win the A10 tourny...we know GW is in for sure and I would be quite surprised if the A10 gets more than 2 bids so if someone surprises, we're done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 To answer your specific question about a 21-10 finish I would estimate that in the mid to high 30's (definitely in). I will be doing some calculations tomorrow probably for more detail. I would say we have a little room to play with (KShoe is basically right that 6-1 finish with at least one win in the tournament is the lowest comfortable spot if you are looking for an NCAA bid). We certainly might get in with a little less but we would need another top 50 win (or if Xavier goes on a hot streak and gets back in the top 50 we will have a great profile and could probably lose another game and still get in). The thing to remember is that projecting SLU to do well down the stretch gives them a "good" profile as the last 10 games are a factor. We would also need top 50 wins (or for SIU to stay in) down the stretch to get in with an RPI in the 40's. We do not have any "bad" (200+) losses and our conference position will be fine. I am confident we will hold together a solid NIT bid. Obviously the above NCAA talk is hopeful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted February 7, 2006 Author Share Posted February 7, 2006 I'd agree winning out is a stretch. However, there is the potential. When you look at this team and how it has played against the biggies, and I know this doesn't mean much for RPI, it seems they dig a little deeper and come up with a great effort. Now if they take this same attitude into these remaining games thinking, "hey the dance is a possiblity now", well.....? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 i think that is the correct view. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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