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Xav by 17 over Bills----Win probability= 6% nm


The Wiz

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Hello again Bills fans, thanks for your support against the Cats I think it may have put us over the top :)

Don't know what the line is, but if I could get 17 I'd put it on the Bills. I think X by 8-10 is more realistic.

Muskies have been playing a 'pack line' defense this year, which crowds the lane and dares you to beat them from the outside. However this scheme also allows us to challenge the 3, and teams are only shooting .295 from there, best in the league. We almost never press and don't trap a lot either, just a tough half court pressure the ball D. I look for IV to get doubled every time he gets the ball. Truly the defense has anchored XU's success this season.

On offense X likes to push the ball when they can and get it in to Thornton as much as possible. While they were only 1-18 from 3 against UC they missed a lot of open looks. As a team they are shooting .486 from the field and .377 from 3, including the abysmal UC effort. Burrell, Doellman and Duncan do most of the damage from beyond the arc. Finn used to be a threat out there too but he is almost a non-factor scoring so far this year. Burrell also has a nice pull up jumper. Doellman and Duncan can both go strong to the basket. The Muskies are a very good passing team and lead the league in assists, averaging over 18 a game. Our guards for the most part aren't penetrators, we tend to rely on our passing to get it to Thornton and get good looks.

X has quality depth. 5th year senior Will Caudle spells Thornton, Duncan spells both Doellman and Cage, frosh Johnny Wolf is our back-up point guard (31 assists, 3 to's), and frosh BJ Raymond spells Burrell. Rebounding had been a team weakness but the last few games they've been stepping up, 53 boards against the Cats for instance.

In short this is one of the deepest and most talented teams X has ever had. From what I've seen so far, if you want to beat them you need to take care of the ball and be red hot from outside. Really quick guards can bother Finn and Wolf and keep X from getting into their offense.

Good luck on Sunday, I think the Bills will have their hands full but wish you nothing but success in the conference (after our game). Is it televised in StL? Apparently not here in Cincy.

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The point spread I use is a handicapping program which currently is about 81% correct. After the point spread is calculated (using past game data, home/away bias etc) it then translates the spread into a win probability-- for example a 55% wp means if the Bills played 100 games they would win 55. As you can see, with a 17 point spread and a 6 % wp we are a long shot and X (as you can read elsehere on this board) is a very good team. The 6% chance of winning is the same as picking up a pair of dice and rolling a 3.

PS--Your Illini are favored by 15 over Minn. Win prop 92% Minn. chances of winning --same as rolling a 4.

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Your program picks the game winner with 81% probability? Possible, especially considering the amount of games between patsies and BCS conference teams during the non-conference schedule.

It picks the winner vs. the Vegas point spread with 81% probability? I doubt it.

Your program and numbers are almost always similar to Pomeroy's predictor on his RPI site. How does your program differ from his?

For what its worth the Billikens are 14 point dogs according to Vegas today.

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81%= game winner.

Mine uses point margins similar to Pomeroy.

How does my program differ from Pomeroy?

From what I understand of Pomeroy his program figures point margins only and does not give any weight to wins or losses. Mine does.

Also , I believe his program puts a cap on the point margins. Mine uses a diminishing returns weighting. Meaning, no matter how big the margin there is some factor still figured in though to a lesser extent. With Pomeroy a 15 or 25 point margin might carry the same value.

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Not as well.

Usually by the time you finish the OOC schedule, there is enough data to be pretty accurate. By the end of the season, the program can be around 90% (which means in the begining it can be a struggle to hit 70%) One advantage you pointed out earlier, while there is not much data at the start, many teams play patsies, which makes it easier to predict the winner. It can be difficult to pin down the point spreads on those earlier games.

BTW, my biggest miss this year (so far) with SLU(meaning an upset) was the SIU game with the Salukis favored to win. That was the first indication we would be able to play with the Zags & GW. Needless to say a win tonight would not only be a major upset but turn the season around.

Go Bills !!

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I could see how if you evaluated the data today a victory by SLU over SIU would look improbable but at the time SIU had just come off two losses in the Alaksa tourney including Monmouth and a D2 team. The Vegas line was even odds. I'm surprised your program would have been against us at that point by more than a point or two.

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That SIU game was early in the season, so I thought maybe it was one of those aberrations. The 2 SIU losses were both in Alaska ( and also early). Those long trips really mess up teams. (remember Bills in Hawaii)

In any case, SIU has turned out to be a pretty good team and if we played them today they would probably still be favored.

Discounting the early Alaska losses, SIU has lost to N Ia, MSU & us. I think that puts us ib a little better light and counts as a mini upset.

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No question about it-- the Bills definitely rolled a 3 and pulled off a major upset. As I stated in a post above, in addition to the upset itself it could turn the season around for the Bills.

The one thing the numbers can't address is a mind set change. If they realize that this was their toughest game, good thinga could happen. With the idea that there is no one left on the schedule we can't beat, they could start a streak similar to one after they beat L'ville a few years ago. They need to keep focused and healthy.

Go Bills !!

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Not anymore. I look for us to string a few Ws in a row together, and will be REAL disappointed if we lose at home to St. Joe.

Hopefully we will have 11,000+ at Wed.'s game and will make lots of noise. Come on Blue Crew-get the students there. Promise them anything, but get them there!!!

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