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Posted
2 minutes ago, JohnnyJumpUp said:

Not this one, no way. Stonybrook just traveled approx 15k miles to beat LMU at their place. JJUmetrics has SLU by 17 in this one, guaranteed! If this was at Chaifetz we'd be looking at around 25+.

I’ll be a lot more confident once the first couple 3’s go down. 

Posted
41 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:

Favored by 5, we win by 21 on the road. Surely the computer will look with joy at the result?

Yes, I think you are correct...the computer does look with joy at this result. The win tonight was a significant win. Not a great win  but a significant  win.  First , it was a nice bounce back after a crushing loss to Stanford. Also this is the 8th game which completes the computers data gathering and from here on out it is using real data as the Bayesian model starts to fade out. And it does like what it sees after 8 games. The 7-1 mark confirms what I thought was a pretty aggressive preseason forecast....12-1 OOC...13 -5 conference...25-6 overall.

I think from here on out barring any setbacks the computer will become more aggressive in its spreads. It saw what it was waiting to see. It saw the kids play and liked what it saw.

Btw...it has moved the Bills back to A-.   The A- grade is the minimum needed to win the conference...to win the A10 tourney ....to win an at large bid NCAA. Now it is on to step 2 ...trying to hold onto  the A-.  

 

Posted

Let's not get taken over by sweet 16 dreams. I watched the game between Dayton and BYU and Dayton will be a very hard team to beat. I have yet to see VCU play, but it will also it also will probably be a very tough opponent. Anyway you look at it, I cannot see A10 getting more than 2 slots at the Dance. We need to have enough steam to run the race and end #2 in A10 to have a chance for an at large invite to the Dance. I personally think we can do it this year, but I also think it is to early to feel the glow of certainty.

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