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Posted

A nice win last night. For a wrap on the game, see the SEMO spread thread.

Before we get into the Chi St game , let me digress for a bit....

There was a lot of chatter on the SEMO spread thread about scoring margin.  Let's take a moment to talk about spreads and the NET. The important point here is that when you play Q4 teams (weak teams) it is difficult to move up in the NET no matter how much you win by( more is better but it helps in small amounts). Our pregame grade was B+.   An A- gives us a chance to Dance as an at large bid.  Also A- gives us a better chance to finish 1st in conference and to win the A-10 tourney.   A- means we are playing winning ball. We are not yet there  but we are close.  

So we beat SEMO by 25 pts. We whupped them . Did that have any effect on our NET standings or grade? Very little. We are still a B+ team. As far as the NET is concerned there was little effect.  Yes, I know there is no NET at this time but I have a NET tracker program that I use mainly at the end of the season to gauge our post season chances.  But at this early stage that program indicates that our NET improvement was negligible. We improved  about 1.5% in the NET standings. What does this mean? It means we would have to play 13 more SEMO type games (beating weak Q4 teams by 25  pts. )to improve our chances to reach A- and a worthy NET.  Fortunately, we will not be playing all Q4 teams.  In the OOC schedule , we will have chances to improve our standing against Grand Canyon, SF and probably Minn.,,,and of course the A10 will be better competition too.  We just need to keep winning and things will work out.

Game Preview....

We win again.  As you can see by the spread  there is not much to analyze.   Chi St is an F- team (5th worst in D1)  We are still a B+ team. Do what we did against SEMO and win by more.

Bottom Line...

If we play our game, we can blow the Windy City team back to Chicago.

 

We win because we play together as a team....

John Havlichek

 

Posted

Team Rankings posted their spread, it is 28.5 pts in favor of SLU winning. They give SLU 5  stars of confidence to win this game. Again two totally different predictive systems coming this close in their results is significant. I have no doubt that SLU will win this game and that they may indeed go over the spread.. Go Bills!

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