The Bills over SEMO by 19

[The Wiz]

We win!!

That could be the end of this report. The difficulty in analyzing this game is not who will win or lose but how much we will win by.  We should win by a lot.  The computer is being conservative.  Does it really matter whether we win by 19 or 25 pts.  In the old days ...no, it didn't matter.  But in the NET era the answer is yes. When RPI was the barometer (sorry @billikenfan05) there were built in safeguards to keep the scores from being run up.  After you had a 10 pt lead, the scoring margin algorithm put in a diminishing return until  you reached 20pts.  After 20 pts, there was no additional advantage to running up the score. With the arrival of the NET, the scoring margin algorithm disappeared. BUT it was buried in the new code under Offensive Efficiency...OE is the ghost of scoring margin.  Scoring margin is still in the formula but it is hidden.  Why is it hidden? Because the NCAA didn't want to encourage schools to run up the score.  However, the fact that it is hidden doesn't change the fact that it is even more  important.  It makes up approximately 60% of the NET score.   Running up the score helps your NET score ... a lot. This is called the "Colgate effect".  That is because at the beginning of the NET, Colgate figured it out and proceed to pound bottom feeders in bottom feeding conferences.  When the top 20 NET standings came out you would see teams like Duke, Michigan,  NC and Colgate. 

So why am I discussing this in a game analysis about SEMO.  Because this is a way out if the dilemma SLU face as a mid major. While it would be nice for the Dance to expand or we  make a move to the Big East, the real answer is to play Q1  teams.  Instead of lamenting the poor schedule we have this year (and it is a weak one) we need to not only beat these teams but pound them. That would improve our NET and maybe get us an at large bid ...BUT more important... by winning big we could  become a Q1 team and then be able to schedule other Q1 teams next year and thereafter.  Let this be the start of a series of big point spread wins.

Game Preview

The Bills start the year as a B+ team. If we want to Dance  we will need to get that up to at least an A-.  Very doable at this point. The A10  also comes in as a B+ conference .  Over the years the A10 has generally ranked between B- and A- .  Meanwhile our opponent SEMO grades out at D in an F+ conference (OVC).  We could talk about their players or what defense the Red Hawks will play but I think the point spread says it all. 

WWN2D2W...

We just need to do what we have been doing in the scrimmages and we will be fine. I would like to see us cut down on  TOs but that will come.  I think our depth will lead to the big point spread. We have subs who can play at a high level/start and  are trying to earn extra minutes. Even if the game is decided early, players should keep the intensity high as they look for more playing time. Higher intensity for more time equals bigger point spread wins.

Bottom line...

If we play our game...we will SEMO wins for The Bills.

[Old guy]

I want to make sure that it is known and understood that I understand your method and believe it is excellent. I have no beef with it. 

One figure that, in my opinion, is not public and will remain so is monetary gain for the NCAA derived from their tournament. The NCAA has provided itself with the power to choose who goes to their championship tournament, and they, together with the TV broadcasters, will arrange a tournament with teams chosen to produce the most profitable games possible. Money is king and the mid majors are not considered to generate the largest amounts of income. Wait until the end of the year and you will see, once more, mid majors passed over in favor of power schools...

Our primary aim this year should be to win the A10 tournament. If we require an at large bid to the NCAA tournament, we not only need to win lots of games but we need to win them by 20-30 points each. I think a large average amount of points per win, and  the excitement generated, will be a very important factor for at large bids.  This may be doable given our OOC schedule, our coach and a team that just might be able to do it.

[Aquinas]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

I want to make sure that it is known and understood that I understand your method and believe it is excellent. I have no beef with it. 

One figure that, in my opinion, is not public and will remain so is monetary gain for the NCAA derived from their tournament. The NCAA has provided itself with the power to choose who goes to their championship tournament, and they, together with the TV broadcasters, will arrange a tournament with teams chosen to produce the most profitable games possible. Money is king and the mid majors are not considered to generate the largest amounts of income. Wait until the end of the year and you will see, once more, mid majors passed over in favor of power schools...

Our primary aim this year should be to win the A10 tournament. If we require an at large bid to the NCAA tournament, we not only need to win lots of games but we need to win them by 20-30 points each. I think a large average amount of points per win, and  the excitement generated, will be a very important factor for at large bids.  This may be doable given our OOC schedule, our coach and a team that just might be able to do it.

Having one of the most charismatic and popular players in Avila doesn't hurt either. 

 

[Lord Elrond]

If what we need to do is beat the crap out of bad teams, then pile on the scoring.

[dlarry]

13 hours ago, Lord Elrond said:

If what we need to do is beat the crap out of bad teams, then pile on the scoring.

This is where a deep team will help. Pull the starters and another group of starters come in. Even in blowouts the walk-on's don't see the court until 1-2 minutes left. 

[cheeseman]

14 hours ago, Lord Elrond said:

If what we need to do is beat the crap out of bad teams, then pile on the scoring.

My opinion of Shertz is that he not the type to do this - I could be wrong - but if someone has an ethical approach then it won't be easy for them to abandon it.

[wgstl]

9 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

My opinion of Shertz is that he not the type to do this - I could be wrong - but if someone has an ethical approach then it won't be easy for them to abandon it.

He has to do this.. its not really an option.  Now, killing a team really means beating a team by 10 or more.  

[slu72]

The present D1 situation demands you step on their throats when you got ‘em down. It’s a nasty business these days. 

[Lord Elrond]

1 hour ago, cheeseman said:

My opinion of Shertz is that he not the type to do this - I could be wrong - but if someone has an ethical approach then it won't be easy for them to abandon it.

I respect your opinion of him and personally I share that same opinion.  But someone please explain to him this is how the math works, so go step on their throats. It’s not personal, it’s business.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, wgstl said:

He has to do this.. its not really an option.  Now, killing a team really means beating a team by 10 or more.  

What would be impressive to a NET computer would be to beat the opponent by 10 or more points...over the spread.

[wgstl]

7 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

What would be impressive to a NET computer would be to beat the opponent by 10 or more points...over the spread.

That works for me also 

[Lord Elrond]

26 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

What would be impressive to a NET computer would be to beat the opponent by 10 or more points...over the spread.

10+ points OVER the spread should be our goal.  Coach Schertz, are you listening?

[cheeseman]

1 hour ago, slu72 said:

The present D1 situation demands you step on their throats when you got ‘em down. It’s a nasty business these days. 

Oh so because some say you have to do this then a person will throw how they may see life out the window - sure.  I understand peoples point but all I am saying a guy who is not into embarrassing others will find it hard to do.  As I said before my opinion of who he is may be wrong - who knows we will see

[brianstl]

45 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

Oh so because some say you have to do this then a person will throw how they may see life out the window - sure.  I understand peoples point but all I am saying a guy who is not into embarrassing others will find it hard to do.  As I said before my opinion of who he is may be wrong - who knows we will see

If you want to make the tournament, you need to throttle lesser teams.  This isn’t CYC basketball.  Everyone is getting paid.

[cgeldmacher]

2 hours ago, cheeseman said:

My opinion of Shertz is that he not the type to do this - I could be wrong - but if someone has an ethical approach then it won't be easy for them to abandon it.

I think Schertz is a very good, ethical guy who would score as many points as possible against a team because he understands that this is what is best for his team.

[wgstl]

6 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

I think Schertz is a very good, ethical guy who would score as many points as possible against a team because he understands that this is what is best for his team.

There's no reason to think otherwise.  He knows his back is against the wall because of the SOS, he's not gonna play nice and frick up his chances even more. Plus a team like ours who's bench is very very good makes it more likely blowouts occur.

[dlarry]

If I can get the Bills -19 on FanDuel I'll be heading to the Illinois side before the game. 

[HoosierPal]

 

[CenHudDude]

The Wiz can tell me for sure, but if we beat the first three teams on our schedule by 10 points over the spread,  it would certainly seem that would increase the spread in the next game.  I would think that it would become increasingly difficult to beat the spread by 10 points.

[WUH]

6 hours ago, The Wiz said:

What would be impressive to a NET computer would be to beat the opponent by 10 or more points...over the spread.

But 10 points over the spread is not a thing in the NET right?  You are assuming that 10 points over the spread give us the efficiency numbers needed to rank as high as possible in the NET, is that correct?

[The Wiz]

2 minutes ago, WUH said:

But 10 points over the spread is not a thing in the NET right?  You are assuming that 10 points over the spread give us the efficiency numbers needed to rank as high as possible in the NET, is that correct?

No  it not a thing in the NET . I was just answering @Lord Elrond that it might be more meaningful to a NET computer if we beat a team by 10 over the spread rather than just 10 pts.  If we are supposed to win by 19 and win by 10 the NET would like us less.

[The Wiz]

3 hours ago, CenHudDude said:

The Wiz can tell me for sure, but if we beat the first three teams on our schedule by 10 points over the spread,  it would certainly seem that would increase the spread in the next game.  I would think that it would become increasingly difficult to beat the spread by 10 points.

Let's assume from your example, that the next 3 games are all 19 pt spreads in favor of the Bills and we win each of those games  by 29.  If the 4th game was a 19pt spread, it would still be just as difficult to score 10 over the spread. The 19 indicates that it is the same difficulty between the 2 teams.    We may be getting better each time  but so might the opponent(s).

[WUH]

52 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

No  it not a thing in the NET . I was just answering @Lord Elrond that it might be more meaningful to a NET computer if we beat a team by 10 over the spread rather than just 10 pts.  If we are supposed to win by 19 and win by 10 the NET would like us less.

Thanks, but isn’t the NET more like the Pomeroy ratings? Efficiency is key rather than score?

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, WUH said:

Thanks, but isn’t the NET more like the Pomeroy ratings? Efficiency is key rather than score?

They are somewhat similar.  They use efficiency as the underlying calculation. They both come up with Off Eff and Def Eff which leads to Net Efficiency.  And then  the NET  adds its secret sauce....the adjusted net efficiency.  That adds strength of opponent and game location across all games. The NCAA tightly  guards the recipe for that algorithm. Two things are for sure about the Adj NET Eff.   One...it is the most heavily weighted part of the NET formula and Two...running up the score can have a significant effect on the NET rankings.

One last thing.  The Adj N Eff is a relative term .  If you are playing a strong team you don't need to do much to "run up the score"  Say  you are playing Houston ...if you beat them by 6  that might be the same as beating Chicago State by 35.

Bottom line...The NET is murky...on purpose...and then the Selection Committee does what it wants.

 

 

[WUH]

Thanks @The Wiz, very interesting!