Article About NIL Being Death of Tournament Cinderellas

[cgeldmacher]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/college-basketball/article/march-madness-is-nil-the-death-of-cinderella-150007039.html

Good article about this topic.  It dives deeper than just talking about Mid Majors making and succeeding in the tournament.  Big discussion about how far fewer players are dropping down from power conference schools to mid majors in the past two years.

The article mentions that this year is the 1st time since 1975 that all of the Sweet 16 teams are from power conferences.

[Dr Bird]

11 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/college-basketball/article/march-madness-is-nil-the-death-of-cinderella-150007039.html

Good article about this topic.  It dives deeper than just talking about Mid Majors making and succeeding in the tournament.  Big discussion about how far fewer players are dropping down from power conference schools to mid majors in the past two years.

The article mentions that this year is the 1st time since 1975 that all of the Sweet 16 teams are from power conferences.

A key point is that most P5 benchwarmers make more in NIL than a mid-major starter.  So for someone with limited pro potential, he can stay at the P5 and save a little nest egg until he exhausts eligibility.

The counter to that is you need to play for any chance at a pro career (domestic or overseas), and most players think they at least have a chance for some overseas money.

[dlarry]

I saw this earlier today. It shows where the starting 5 of each sweet 16 team started their college career. Absolutely crazy 

 

https://x.com/ncaabuzzerbters/status/1904514856478445808?s=46&t=aizvVpFeSBKPBwx2KFRNvQ

 

[cgeldmacher]

32 minutes ago, dlarry said:

I saw this earlier today. It shows where the starting 5 of each sweet 16 team started their college career. Absolutely crazy 

 

https://x.com/ncaabuzzerbters/status/1904514856478445808?s=46&t=aizvVpFeSBKPBwx2KFRNvQ

 

Purdue, Duke, and Michigan State are not bad at bringing in, developing, and keeping their own players.  Not that surprising since they've been doing it for years.  Its the other schools that stand out as just being reliant now on big pockets buying their players.

[TheChosenOne]

13 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

Purdue, Duke, and Michigan State are not bad at bringing in, developing, and keeping their own players.  Not that surprising since they've been doing it for years.  Its the other schools that stand out as just being reliant now on big pockets buying their players.

I do agree. But, if we are talking about Duke, it should be noted that 3 of those 4 starters who came from Duke are freshman superstars (and another superstar freshman has started some games as well), so a bit different since that just requires landing those studs vs. retaining them. Basically, also reliant now on big pockets buying their players they just happen to be the elite prep recruits vs. transfers.

[Cowboy]

-how does a 15 member roster help the non power conf teams? I see the Bigs just keeping two more players who otherwise would be playing at lower level schools and reducing the chances of tourney success for the Littles another notch or two

-that is until the Bigs are able to kick all of the Littles out of the tourney 

[willie]

2 hours ago, TheChosenOne said:

I do agree. But, if we are talking about Duke, it should be noted that 3 of those 4 starters who came from Duke are freshman superstars (and another superstar freshman has started some games as well), so a bit different since that just requires landing those studs vs. retaining them. Basically, also reliant now on big pockets buying their players they just happen to be the elite prep recruits vs. transfers.

I find it interesting that Duke is making the sign freshman work while Kentucky/ Calapari gave it up. We will see if these freshman can win it all. 

[almaman]

I think I count 8 teams that have 5 different schools!

[HoosierPal]

At little OT- still about NIL$ - but is this the beginning of the end of early season MTE's? How will this impact the 2027 Maui Invite, that we believe includes the Billikens?

Players Era Festival intends on expanding to 32 teams in 2026 to create 'November madness' tournament event

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/players-era-festival-intends-on-expanding-to-32-teams-in-2026-to-create-november-madness-tournament-event/

[ARon]

Interesting article in The Athletic today stating that basketball only schools are seen to potentially have an advantage going forward.  The idea being that they can dump a higher % of their rev share money into BB that football schools will be willing to do. Most schools that have football are expected to allocate about $3 million on men's basketball and let NIL make up the rest.

The article also stated that the expected cost to be competitive at a high major level will be $5-8 million with some teams spending up to 10.

it poses the question what is to stop Villanova or a St. John's from dumping  $15 mi just into men's bball.

"Even several Atlantic 10 programs are expected to set aside $3-4 million in revenue sharing for their basketball programs."

[SLUMS81]

The elite programs will buy greater numbers of high level players, which will  raise the level of intensity during practice and the competition for playing time.  
    This will further increase the gap between the top teams and the rest of the college basketball universe.

[HoosierPal]

@John_Fanta · 23h

 

“The transfer portal is crazy. There are kids asking for $2-3 million right now. The money has exploded crazy because we have no guardrails. We have no rules. It’s been as badly of a rule implemented as ever. And agents are taking advantage of it.” — Kevin Willard on @team980

[slu72]

I read the Yahoo articles on NIL. Of interest was the Beast will likely spend as much on NIL as the power 5 schools. FB being the reason since 70-75% of NIL $’s go to FB. It’s estimated that both Beast and P5 hoops programs will have budgets of around $5 mm for hoops. So, the Beast will stay competitive with the P5’s. It would be great if SLU had that kind of budget, ie $4-5 mil, I just don’t know if that is realistic. The article also said the A10 has several schools that have said they will commit to $3-4mil for NIL. I assume we’re one of the several. Now when Willard says some players/agents are demanding $1-2 mm, unless the kid is Michael Jordan that would even be high for a P5 program, ie 20-40% of their budget invested in one guy seems a bad move. Bottom line here is SLU has to plan to be shelling out $4mm to maintain a competitive hoops program. 

[kshoe]

5 hours ago, ARon said:

Interesting article in The Athletic today stating that basketball only schools are seen to potentially have an advantage going forward.  The idea being that they can dump a higher % of their rev share money into BB that football schools will be willing to do. Most schools that have football are expected to allocate about $3 million on men's basketball and let NIL make up the rest.

The article also stated that the expected cost to be competitive at a high major level will be $5-8 million with some teams spending up to 10.

it poses the question what is to stop Villanova or a St. John's from dumping  $15 mi just into men's bball.

"Even several Atlantic 10 programs are expected to set aside $3-4 million in revenue sharing for their basketball programs."

I haven't read that article, but I don't think it's much of an advantage. Teams can still funnel money to players through NIL, in addition to the revenue sharing. So if Alabama only wants to contribute $3mm to revenue sharing but boosters have another $12mm to donate through NIL they can still pay their players $15mm. St. Johns and Villanova can theoretically spend $15mm on paying their basketball players but 1) they don't have that much money to spend because they don't have nearly the same tv deals that the football schools do, and 2) even if they spend $15mm it's no different than the $15mm that Alabama spends through revenue sharing and NIL combined.

Money is relatively fungible and other than the tax deductibility of paying players through revenue sharing instead of NIL, there's really nothing to see here. The football schools still have far more money overall and that's all that matters these days.

[dlarry]

I would think a national title  run would  make you enough in donations and season ticket boosts to support your NIL for the next few years.

If a team makes a big run in the tourney people will have no problem paying extra ticket fees the next few years if they know its going to NIL. 

[cgeldmacher]

I would think tournament credits would also help the NIL fund of schools that decide to revenue share.

[billikenfan05]

I posted this in the departing players thread, but NIL and unlimited transfers were a product of player demands and court cases. They aren't "designed" to keep mid majors down, they were designed to bend to the players to keep the NCAA afloat as they kick the can down the road.

The NET and the Quad System were implemented directly by the NCAA, that is the change designed to keep mid majors from reaching up and challenging the P5. 

I don't necessarily believe the level of play in the formerly 2-3 bid leagues has dropped that drastically in the last 3-5 years. The way they are evaluated has. 

You can only control mid majors getting and retaining talent so much. But you can directly control how many teams are selected for the NCAA tournament. If mid majors aren't able to get to the tournament, that severely limits their revenue streams. 

[slu72]

53 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

I would think tournament credits would also help the NIL fund of schools that decide to revenue share.

Voila! And that is why the new norm going forward is Sweet 16’s being 100% filled by the P4’s. The magic of March Madness is over. 

[slu72]

26 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:

I posted this in the departing players thread, but NIL and unlimited transfers were a product of player demands and court cases. They aren't "designed" to keep mid majors down, they were designed to bend to the players to keep the NCAA afloat as they kick the can down the road.

The NET and the Quad System were implemented directly by the NCAA, that is the change designed to keep mid majors from reaching up and challenging the P5. 

I don't necessarily believe the level of play in the formerly 2-3 bid leagues has dropped that drastically in the last 3-5 years. The way they are evaluated has. 

You can only control mid majors getting and retaining talent so much. But you can directly control how many teams are selected for the NCAA tournament. If mid majors aren't able to get to the tournament, that severely limits their revenue streams. 

It’s a combination of the portal, NIL, and the NET that has resulted in a Sweet 16 of P5’s. I would expect scheduling OOC games against P5’s will only get more difficult for decent mid major programs. What does a P5 program have to gain by scheduling a VCU or UD? They risk a loss to gain little, so they’ll schedule games against lower mids as practice fodder knowing they’ll have plenty of opportunities to gain Q1 W’s in conference play. Plus it takes away the possibility of Q1 wins from decent mid major programs. 

[HoosierPal]

11 minutes ago, slu72 said:

It’s a combination of the portal, NIL, and the NET that has resulted in a Sweet 16 of P5’s. I would expect scheduling OOC games against P5’s will only get more difficult for decent mid major programs. What does a P5 program have to gain by scheduling a VCU or UD? They risk a loss to gain little, so they’ll schedule games against lower mids as practice fodder knowing they’ll have plenty of opportunities to gain Q1 W’s in conference play. Plus it takes away the possibility of Q1 wins from decent mid major programs. 

With the new Player's Era NIL Tourney to expand to 32 teams in 2026, you know most of the field will be P5 schools going for the NIL $.  That will further minimize mid's chances of getting Q1 games in OOC play.  Not only will they (we) not be invited, but with only 1 MTE per team scheduled, the MTE's we can get into won't have any/many power schools.  Scheduling will not get easier. The Maui Invite we allegedly have been invited to in 2027 not be more than a mix of mid's and maybe a bottom dweller P5.  Time will tell.