Ark St over The Bills by 1

[The Wiz]

NIT tourney ...who'd thunk it.  We give thanks to the teams that dropped out of the NIT.  The biggest surprise is not us making it in but that they took St. B too. The NIT took the top 6 teams in the A10 after VCU....plus 3 other Bills opponents. ...The A10 & Friends tourney....Since we were 3-9 against these teams maybe we could call it the Revenge Tour.

First up,  Ark St. ...24-10 ..1st in the Sun Belt...which raises a number of questions ...who , what and where.   The Red Wolves are located in Jonesboro  (NE corner of Ark) They finished 1st in conference but lost to Troy in the Championship game. (ArSt was an auto bid)...ASU is a 3rd seed in this tourney.

Now let's get to the nitty gritty.  First, we are the better team.   Let's look at some of the facts.  ASU has a SOS of 177...we have a 98...The level of competition isn't close. They have one claim to fame. They beat Memphis back in mid Dec... Not much has happened since then.  Yes , they did win the Sun Belt conf...Sun Belt ??...This conference is one notch above the Moon Belt conf.   Eight of the 14 teams in the Sun Belt would have finished last in the A10...some not winning any games at all. So whether you are looking at games won or stats you have to look at it through a 177 looking glass.

Game preview...

So does that mean we win...the spread says hold on .... the game is pretty much even...the home field advantage is the difference. Had this game been played at Hinkle with the other games we would have been favored.

So what are we dealing with here.  An age old problem...the unstoppable force (The Bills...when they are right) vs the immovable object (ASU defense ).  ASU has a bad offense.  They have this small problem ...they can't shoot.  But they have one of the better defenses in country. When you look at the report card below,  there are some things that don't make sense at first glance...You see the poor shooting but then you see they are a fairly high scoring team (B+ ).  What gives?  They can rebound. When you miss a lot of shots, if you can rebound  (6th ITN) , you get a lot of 2nd chances. (FGA...6th ITN).  To win, take away 2nd chances.

For The Bills , the target slash will be important. They need to make shots.  While ASU has a good Defense,  again,  remember the 177...much of that was done against weaker teams. They will bother us but we have been bothered before.  Make shots and rebound and we win.

Contrary to the fact , I have poked fun at ASU , they are a B team , the same as us and this should be a good game.

One last thing. We have had a few days rest which is a good thing. ASU will be off for 8 days which means they could be cold on shooting...hmmm ASU cold on shooting...I think that is what they call an oxymoron...like jumbo shrimp. 

Play Bills ball and we win.

Let's look at the card

Report Card.... 

Report Card change....none up...4 dn...5 unchanged = -4...I think we were fatigued in that last Loy game which caused us to fade especially on defense.

UP.....OFF....none...DEF.....none

Dn....OFF...Rebs....DEF.......PPG...FG%...3P%

 

................SLU...........ArSt...................SLU....................ArSt

.........................OFF..............................................DEF..........

PPG...........C+...............B+.........................B-..............................B-

FG%..........A-................F+..........................B+............................A...20th ITN

3P%..........B..................D-..........................B-.............................A+..14th ITN

FT%..........D-.................C+............................................................

Reb............C................A+..6th ITN..............D...............................F

 OFF Rebs  = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU...

2P%....Team...........3rd.......up

PPG....Jimerson... 71st.....dn

Asst....Swope........90th.....up

3PM......Jimerson...13th...unch

..............Swope.......24th...up

Reb....Anya............84th...dn

ArSt...

Asst...Ford..58th

Rebs...Nelson...42nd

FG%...Nelson...100th...he and a couple of other bigs are looking for put backs

Injuries

SLU...

Casey & Dotzler...OFTS

Thames...Out Indefinitely....3/2/25...undisclosed

ArSt...

None to report

Keys to the game.... Make some shots ...reb...get off to a good start ...get the lead and then close strong

WWN2D2W....Target slash 48 / 61 / 36 / 73 ...This is always important but especially in this game....Rebs...this will also be an important stat...beat them on the boards...no 2nd chances...POTs...even...they already get plenty of extra chances don't give them any freebees. Nelson is their main rebounder.. keep him at 6....hold the Red Wolves to under 70 pts.

Bottom line... 

The Red Wolves are from A S U

Let's beat them up... make them black and blue.

[Minerva N. Owl]

Could this be a redemption game for GJ? That last game against Loyola would have been a pretty tough way to end his career. 0 for 5 from 3. 4 points total for GJ in the recent loss. How much of that was due to Loyola's defense (in response to GJ going lights out on Mardi Gras Saturday at Chaifetz)? I assumed that would be the last game of the career for Swope and GJ, and it was one of the worst I remember for GJ. Redemption?

Wiz - You show ArkSt as A+ ... 14th ITN defending the 3. But that's against lesser competition. What are the prospects of finding a way to get GJ in the game more this time -- either cutting to the basket or somehow getting some 3s to drop this time so that he is closer to his normal offensive contribution? Winning would be very nice, as would making a run in this (diluted?) NIT, but it would also be nice to see a better version of GJ to rinse out that sour taste.

[The Wiz]

5 minutes ago, Minerva N. Owl said:

Could this be a redemption game for GJ? That last game against Loyola would have been a pretty tough way to end his career. 0 for 5 from 3. 4 points total for GJ in the recent loss. How much of that was due to Loyola's defense (in response to GJ going lights out on Mardi Gras Saturday at Chaifetz)? I assumed that would be the last game of the career for Swope and GJ, and it was one of the worst I remember for GJ. Redemption?

Wiz - You show ArkSt as A+ ... 14th ITN defending the 3. But that's against lesser competition. What are the prospects of finding a way to get GJ in the game more this time -- either cutting to the basket or somehow getting some 3s to drop this time so that he is closer to his normal offensive contribution? Winning would be very nice, as would making a run in this (diluted?) NIT, but it would also be nice to see a better version of GJ to rinse out that sour taste.

As you know, GJ plays almost every min of every game...something few players do. To do it in back to back games is going to take it's toll even on a player use to playing lots of minutes. I think he along with the rest of the team will be in better shape with the few days off.  Three point shooting can be streaky anyway particularly when you are on the road in new surroundings. Hopefully he will have his touch back tomorrow.  I am sure he was disappointed after his great final game at Chaifetz.   He will probably be a little more focused for this game so that he can end on a high note.

The improvements the Bills have made since Dec  have shown they have many ways to score. In addition,  their defense is much better.   If you pressure a weak shooting team like ArSt they could become rattled and make mistakes.  I think it would help if we play up tempo too.

In the end the game will be about extra chances...rebounding and TOs....don't give extra chances to a team that can't shoot.  The Bills don't need a great shooting night to win ...they need a normal shooting night without giving away freebees.

[ACE]

Not only did Arkansas State beat Memphis handily, they beat Indiana State and UAB, and most impressively perhaps they gave Alabama a tough battle - they were tied at their place with 7 minutes to go in the game.

[Bay Area Billiken]

ESPN says ARST -5.5, Total 153.5. CBS Sports has ARST - 5, Total 154. 

SLU coming out flat Friday in the A10 Quarterfinals vs. Loyola evidently is not inspiring the bookmakers. 

If the old NIT NYC based Metropolitan Intercollegiate Basketball Association (MIBA) was still in charge, this game would be in St. Louis, not Jonesboro, Arkansas. As is, let’s go down there and win it. 

[Old guy]

This is a new game and a new opportunity to achieve success. An expected win by 1 pt by ARST means either team can win. With a little luck wee will do so tonight. Go Bills!

[RiseOfTheBillikens]

Has the Wiz ever been so off? Love the wiz. Players not caring probably messes with the numbers. 

[gobillsgo]

19 minutes ago, RiseOfTheBillikens said:

Has the Wiz ever been so off? Love the wiz. Players not caring probably messes with the numbers. 

Most years the computer is money. May need some recalibration after this season though. 

[BACKHANDtheRICAN]

+24 and you nailed it.

always bet against the Wiz

[The Wiz]

Disappointing end to the season.

I will try to make the wrap short and sweet.

Bolded statements from the original post above.

beat them on the boards...no 2nd chances...POTs...even...they already get plenty of extra chances don't give them any freebees...This is the quickest summary of what happened. These 2 stats (rebs and TOs) alone gave ArSt an additional 19 pts almost the spread of the game and we haven't even mentioned shooting. ASU shot around 60% for most of the game ...nearly double their season average. They had twice as many 3PM as we did...8 vs 16 (24 extra pts for ASU).  We are 27th ITN in 3PM so to double us is quite a feat.   Many of the forecasters will say this is an anomaly ...No question , any way you look at it ...it was an outlier. They would say , the Wolves had a great game (they did ) and tip your cap to them. (we did ...in the Schertz post game interview).

The above paragraph is the how....and that is where most sports writers will leave  it.  For most games , that is what I would do too.. e.g. we missed the target slash by  2 three pt shots and that's why we lost by 6 ...etc , etc.  But I think you need to look at the why in this game.  It wasn't just me being way off in this game but Vegas and sports betting services across the nation were all off by 20+ pts.  Again it wasn't just that ASU shot a little better ....they had their best game of the season...for them a perfect game.  Why?  The answer is Jonesboro...Imagine for a  moment that the NCAA announced that they would play the Final 4  in Jonesboro . Well that will never happen. But what did happen is the NCAA decided to play the NIT ASU game in Jonesboro...maybe the biggest sporting event to ever take place in Jonesboro. The town and the team were ramped up for this "major sporting" event.  Most teams in the NIT knew they weren't going to the Dance...others were close and just missed.  ASU was one of them. They lost to Troy in the final minutes of their conference tourney and were out.  This first NIT game for them wasn't about a 2nd chance to play some more bball or a chance to redeem themselves for their near miss....This was about playing in a "major" sporting event IN THEIR HOMETOWN. Did you see the way the players danced around after making plays.  Some would call this show boating ...the players would say they were celebrating. Did you see how the players mingled with the crowd after the game...more celebrating.

Across America the NIT is a footnote in the sports news.  This game was just a dot on the i in that footnote ( there are 2  i's in the word ...Billiken) ...and while most sports fans will never hear about this game in Jonesboro the players, the college  and the city will never forget the day the NIT came to town and they won.

This is what college basketball is all about...amateurs who play their heart out because they love the game ...and the fans who follow them. Sadly , this is what we are losing with NIL and the Portal.  But for "one shining moment" (not our shining moment ...ours is still coming) we saw that excitement and celebration wash over college basketball again.

That wasn't really short nor what I was planning to write but it seemed to put things in perspective. It also shows the vulnerability of using just computer analysis. The computer looked at this game and saw a 2.5 pt home court advantage. It would never understand the concept of a 20 pt home court advantage. Just like it wouldn't understand why if you took the money out of basketball  ...why humans would still follow and be excited for the game.  That is why it is called Artificial Intelligence.

Go Bills