The Wiz Posted January 26 Posted January 26 Time to talk about the elephant in the room....3P shooting...I have mentioned this in the last few threads pointing out some abysmal numbers. It is time to take a closer look. We are not talking about an outlier game. We are not talking about that bad game every team has where there seems to be a lid on the basket. We are talking about something else here. In the last VCU game, we shot an amazing 57% in the 1st half of that game AND THEN something happened in the 2nd half of that game which we have never quite recovered from. We shot 11%. We wound up with a very good 39.4% 3P % overall for the game and most analysts looked at that and said you have 2 deviations that came out OK. But it wasn't just about the 3P shooting in the 2nd half ...everything collapsed. We scored 42 pts in that 1st half ...2nd half...20...We got bombed on Off rebs...22-4....VCU had 19 pts on 2nd chances...19 TOs...a whopping 27 pts off TOs ...most of this took place in the 2nd half. And that was the beginning... Starting with that 2nd half at VCU and going through the next 3 games we have shot 19.8%( 18-91) from the arc. That puts us at 4th worst in the nation during that 3.5 game period. Something broke in the 2nd half of that VCU game and we need to fix it in the first half of the next VCU game. The spread on this thread comes with a caveat...the computer assumes we will return to be a normal shooting Bills team from the arc (35.7-36.7%). I expect that Vegas and most of the other prognosticators will have us losing by 5-7 pts or more. The simulations on this game remind me of the Bills shot chart...you know the one that shows all the shots either from the arc or under the basket....with little or nothing in the middle. The simulation chart shows us losing by a lot or winning by a small margin with middle part blank. By giving VCU a 1 pt advantage the machine is saying we can win this game...if we fix things....And unless we have forgotten how to shoot 3s ...it is fixable. Game preview...Not much to say after the preamble ...VCU will do what they did last time. Stealing and blocking...TOs and Rebs. We are clearly the better shooting team. With their blocking ability, it is even more important we get the 3s going. We just need to follow Nike's advice on execution...just do it. Top 4... We are currently in 3rd place...We retain our B rating...As I have said in a few threads we need to move to a B+ if we want to stay a top 4 team. If we stay at B , we will fade back to the pack. The computer has also talked about Duq falling out of the top 4. When that happens , Day will be waiting to take take that spot. Finally and once again with no team higher than a B+ , the A-10 remains as a 1 bid league which is why we discuss the Top 4. Beat VCU and not only do we remain Top 4 but move up in the standings. Report Card.... Report Card change....1 up...4 dn...4 unchanged = -3.......After a few good cards , we turn down on this one... particularly on offense. The one bright spot is Def 3P%. We should be able to shut VCU down from the arc. UP.....OFF....none....DEF....3P%... Dn....OFF....FG%..3P%...Reb...DEF...FG% ................SLU...............VCU.................SLU......................VCU ...........................OFF...........................................DEF.......... PPG...........C..................B.......................B............................A+...12 ITN FG%..........B+.................C-....................B............................A 3P%...........C.................D+.....................A-..........................A- FT%..........F+.................C-......................................... Reb............C.................B+......................D.............................C+ OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... 2P%....Team...3rd.........up PPG.....Avila............65th....dn Asst....Swope........55th...dn 3PM......Jimerson...32nd...dn ..............Swope........36th...dn Reb....Anya............22nd...dn FG%...Anya..........68th up VCU... Stls...Shulga...38th Blks...Bamgboye...18th Injuries... SLU... Casey & Dotzler...OFTS VCU none Keys to the game...Make 3s...Keep TOs down...play 40 min of bball ...No slow start and playing catch up...make them take longer shots...limit second chances WWN2D2W..... Target slash...48/ 36 / 73 ...target slash doesn't mean we win automatically... we have to do this to have a chance to win...VCU wins games by TO points and second chance points....match them on both and we can win. Score at least 70 pts. Bottom line...The KEY STAT...last VCU game they had 72 FGA to our 37...I don't care how good you are ... you give the other team twice as many shots, you are going to lose the game. Protect the ball and make some 3s No second chances and we win in a breeze. CenHudDude and TheChosenOne 2 Quote
Matty Light Posted January 26 Posted January 26 I don't believe the conditioning of our players is up to the level necessary for the high amount of minutes played. I don't have the answers for how to do it but if you're going to play over 35 minutes a game you need to be able to move up and down the floor like a marathon runner. Quote
CenHudDude Posted January 26 Posted January 26 3 hours ago, The Wiz said: Time to talk about the elephant in the room....3P shooting...I have mentioned this in the last few threads pointing out some abysmal numbers. It is time to take a closer look. We are not talking about an outlier game. We are not talking about that bad game every team has where there seems to be a lid on the basket. We are talking about something else here. In the last VCU game, we shot an amazing 57% in the 1st half of that game AND THEN something happened in the 2nd half of that game which we have never quite recovered from. We shot 11%. We wound up with a very good 39.4% 3P % overall for the game and most analysts looked at that and said you have 2 deviations that came out OK. But it wasn't just about the 3P shooting in the 2nd half ...everything collapsed. We scored 42 pts in that 1st half ...2nd half...20...We got bombed on Off rebs...22-4....VCU had 19 pts on 2nd chances...19 TOs...a whopping 27 pts off TOs ...most of this took place in the 2nd half. And that was the beginning... Starting with that 2nd half at VCU and going through the next 3 games we have shot 19.8%( 18-91) from the arc. That puts us at 4th worst in the nation during that 3.5 game period. Something broke in the 2nd half of that VCU game and we need to fix it in the first half of the next VCU game. The spread on this thread comes with a caveat...the computer assumes we will return to be a normal shooting Bills team from the arc (35.7-36.7%). I expect that Vegas and most of the other prognosticators will have us losing by 5-7 pts or more. The simulations on this game remind me of the Bills shot chart...you know the one that shows all the shots either from the arc or under the basket....with little or nothing in the middle. The simulation chart shows us losing by a lot or winning by a small margin with middle part blank. By giving VCU a 1 pt advantage the machine is saying we can win this game...if we fix things....And unless we have forgotten how to shoot 3s ...it is fixable. Game preview...Not much to say after the preamble ...VCU will do what they did last time. Stealing and blocking...TOs and Rebs. We are clearly the better shooting team. With their blocking ability, it is even more important we get the 3s going. We just need to follow Nike's advice on execution...just do it. Top 4... We are currently in 3rd place...We retain our B rating...As I have said in a few threads we need to move to a B+ if we want to stay a top 4 team. If we stay at B , we will fade back to the pack. The computer has also talked about Duq falling out of the top 4. When that happens , Day will be waiting to take take that spot. Finally and once again with no team higher than a B+ , the A-10 remains as a 1 bid league which is why we discuss the Top 4. Beat VCU and not only do we remain Top 4 but move up in the standings. Report Card.... Report Card change....1 up...4 dn...4 unchanged = -3.......After a few good cards , we turn down on this one... particularly on offense. The one bright spot is Def 3P%. We should be able to shut VCU down from the arc. UP.....OFF....none....DEF....3P%... Dn....OFF....FG%..3P%...Reb...DEF...FG% ................SLU...............VCU.................SLU......................VCU ...........................OFF...........................................DEF.......... PPG...........C..................B.......................B............................A+...12 ITN FG%..........B+.................C-....................B............................A 3P%...........C.................D+.....................A-..........................A- FT%..........F+.................C-......................................... Reb............C.................B+......................D.............................C+ OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... 2P%....Team...3rd.........up PPG.....Avila............65th....dn Asst....Swope........55th...dn 3PM......Jimerson...32nd...dn ..............Swope........36th...dn Reb....Anya............22nd...dn FG%...Anya..........68th up VCU... Stls...Shulga...38th Blks...Bamgboye...18th Injuries... SLU... Casey & Dotzler...OFTS VCU none Keys to the game...Make 3s...Keep TOs down...play 40 min of bball ...No slow start and playing catch up...make them take longer shots...limit second chances WWN2D2W..... Target slash...48/ 36 / 73 ...target slash doesn't mean we win automatically... we have to do this to have a chance to win...VCU wins games by TO points and second chance points....match them on both and we can win. Score at least 70 pts. Bottom line...The KEY STAT...last VCU game they had 72 FGA to our 37...I don't care how good you are ... you give the other team twice as many shots, you are going to lose the game. Protect the ball and make some 3s No second chances and we win in a breeze. Certainly hope you’re right The Wiz and that we have a chance to win this game. After the debacle in Richmond though, it feels like a real uphill climb. If they revert to form and can hit 3s at a 36% or higher rate, I suppose it’s possible. I have no idea though why a good 3 point shooting team suddenly shoots at less than 20% for three and a half games, let alone how they fix it. Quote
Lord Elrond Posted January 26 Posted January 26 Will magic pixie dust being sprinkled on the team hep? CenHudDude 1 Quote
Old guy Posted January 27 Posted January 27 Good Lord, the loss to GW is really affecting the board members. The mood in the board is mimicking the market, up and down with big spikes. Basketball is a sport, you win games and lose games. So, we lost to GW, too bad. Now the Wiz's computer, which is really very accurate, is saying that we have a 1 point advantage against VCU. It is a small advantage, and any team may win this game, but you (plural) should get some satisfaction that this system is giving SLU some advantage, as small and flimsy as the advantage may be. Go Bills! gabriel 1 Quote
laker119 Posted January 27 Posted January 27 26 minutes ago, Old guy said: Good Lord, the loss to GW is really affecting the board members. The mood in the board is mimicking the market, up and down with big spikes. Basketball is a sport, you win games and lose games. So, we lost to GW, too bad. Now the Wiz's computer, which is really very accurate, is saying that we have a 1 point advantage against VCU. It is a small advantage, and any team may win this game, but you (plural) should get some satisfaction that this system is giving SLU some advantage, as small and flimsy as the advantage may be. Go Bills! “VCU over the Bills by 1” Quote
White Pelican Posted January 27 Posted January 27 Reading is fundamental. I heard that somewhere. Quote
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 28 Posted January 28 ESPN and CBS Sports are both now showing VCU -6.5, o142.5. Quote
The Wiz Posted January 28 Author Posted January 28 2 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said: ESPN and CBS Sports are both now showing VCU -6.5, o142.5. I expect that Vegas and most of the other prognosticators will have us losing by 5-7 pts or more. From my original post above. I am not only predicting the spread of the game but the forecasted spread of the prognosticators. A Daily Double. Bay Area Billiken 1 Quote
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 28 Posted January 28 VCU is 17-5 all-time vs. SLU and has won 6 straight in the series. That needs to change starting tonight. VCU’s team of mercenaries is not some invincible juggernaut. It would help if the refs call the blatant and obvious fouls on VCU, at least the reach ins and open court checks of ball handlers and the pushes and shoves on rebounds. CenHudDude 1 Quote
Old guy Posted January 28 Posted January 28 15 hours ago, The Wiz said: I expect that Vegas and most of the other prognosticators will have us losing by 5-7 pts or more. From my original post above. I am not only predicting the spread of the game but the forecasted spread of the prognosticators. A Daily Double. You are correct, Team Rankings spread is in favor of VCU by 5.4. This does not mean much, this is a home game for us and we can win this one. Now wee have to go and win it. Go Bills! Quote
Old guy Posted January 29 Posted January 29 One factor I did not include in my prior post is that Team Rankings had given VCU 3 stars of confidence to win this game. Considering this, this our win was an upset or close to an upset for VCU, at least in Team Rankings terms. Quote
Lord Elrond Posted January 29 Posted January 29 So what were the odds of a fight in the stands at Chaifetz? Doesn’t Vegas have a line on everything in games these days? Quote
The Wiz Posted January 29 Author Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said: So what were the odds of a fight in the stands at Chaifetz? Doesn’t Vegas have a line on everything in games these days? SLU beats VCU...Security beats fans VeniceMenace, CenHudDude and Lord Elrond 1 2 Quote
White Pelican Posted January 29 Posted January 29 Several VCU fans beat me!....to the parking garage that is. VeniceMenace 1 Quote
68Alum Posted January 29 Posted January 29 I disagree that we need to focus on 3PT shots. Robbie needs to stay in the paint going both ways: For his passing, rebounding, drawing fouls and control of the middle and basket. It totally turned the game around. He should’t be a perimeter player! Quote
The Wiz Posted January 29 Author Posted January 29 Big win...Not everything went perfect but good enough to win... Bolded statements from original post. By giving VCU a 1 pt advantage the machine is saying we can win this game...if we fix things....We did win and fixed things enough to win... Target slash...48/ 36 / 73...Actual ...49/ 33 / 77 ...one 3 short of making the target ...close enough to win In the 1st VCU game ... VCU had 19 pts on 2nd chances.....a whopping 27 pts off TOs...In this game we cut Pts off TOs to 14 (13 pt improvement) and 2nd chance pts to 17 (2pt improvement)= 15 pt improvement...we lost the last VCU game by 16 ...once we evened things up this game our superior shooting carried us to victory. Again these stats weren't great but good enough to win. The KEY STAT...last VCU game they had 72 FGA to our 37...Last game they had 95% more shots than we did...This game we cut that to 55%...still not great BUT good enough to win. Didn't specifically mention rebs this time...but indirectly did by focusing more on 2nd chance pts...We lost the reb battle last time by 12...this time we won by 1...this improvement is not another "good enough" stat...this is just plain good. Score at least 70 pts....Interesting...VCU scored 69 pts...the computer knows. Bottom line...What does "good enough to win" really mean?.... It means we just beat the best team in the A10 and we still have more upside...as in we can play better. We are "good enough" to be the top seed in the A10. Adman, Old guy and Gremio14 3 Quote
Cowboy II Posted January 29 Posted January 29 45 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Big win...Not everything went perfect but good enough to win... Bottom line...What does "good enough to win" really mean?.... It means we just beat the best team in the A10 and we still have more upside...as in we can play better. We are "good enough" to be the top seed in the A10. -do you have a stat on what % of the time does a team with 17 turnovers win? or a team with more than twice as many turnovers? sure glad turnovers didn't bite us Quote
The Wiz Posted January 29 Author Posted January 29 47 minutes ago, Cowboy II said: -do you have a stat on what % of the time does a team with 17 turnovers win? or a team with more than twice as many turnovers? sure glad turnovers didn't bite us No stat on that but the answer is not many times. 16 TOs is considered an F-. The computer likens 2 TOs to a walk in baseball. So if you give up 16 TOs it is like the equivalent of walking 8 batters in a game. You could still win the game but it would be an uphill battle. As for the twice as many stat...it is not meaningful. You could have twice as many TO ...2 vs 1 and it wouldn't be a big deal . A little more meaningful would be the difference in TOs. For instance we had an extra 9 TOs and still won this game by 9. Last VCU game we also had a difference of 9 TOs but lost the game by 16. What I use is points off TOs which measures the damage done by the TOs. The 1st VCU game we had a crushing 27 pts scored off TOs. This game we only had 14 pts scored off of TOs ....a drop of 13pts with only 2 less TOs. The beauty of this game was that we beat the best team in the A10 AND we didn't have our best game. We played better than we have been playing over the last few games but there is still more upside....and that's a good thing. Old guy 1 Quote
CenHudDude Posted January 29 Posted January 29 6 hours ago, The Wiz said: Big win...Not everything went perfect but good enough to win... Bolded statements from original post. By giving VCU a 1 pt advantage the machine is saying we can win this game...if we fix things....We did win and fixed things enough to win... Target slash...48/ 36 / 73...Actual ...49/ 33 / 77 ...one 3 short of making the target ...close enough to win In the 1st VCU game ... VCU had 19 pts on 2nd chances.....a whopping 27 pts off TOs...In this game we cut Pts off TOs to 14 (13 pt improvement) and 2nd chance pts to 17 (2pt improvement)= 15 pt improvement...we lost the last VCU game by 16 ...once we evened things up this game our superior shooting carried us to victory. Again these stats weren't great but good enough to win. The KEY STAT...last VCU game they had 72 FGA to our 37...Last game they had 95% more shots than we did...This game we cut that to 55%...still not great BUT good enough to win. Didn't specifically mention rebs this time...but indirectly did by focusing more on 2nd chance pts...We lost the reb battle last time by 12...this time we won by 1...this improvement is not another "good enough" stat...this is just plain good. Score at least 70 pts....Interesting...VCU scored 69 pts...the computer knows. Bottom line...What does "good enough to win" really mean?.... It means we just beat the best team in the A10 and we still have more upside...as in we can play better. We are "good enough" to be the top seed in the A10. I was disappointed that the machine hadn’t predicted the chances of a brawl breaking out and delaying the game by 7 minutes. Quote
Cowboy II Posted January 29 Posted January 29 6 hours ago, The Wiz said: No stat on that but the answer is not many times. 16 TOs is considered an F-. The computer likens 2 TOs to a walk in baseball. So if you give up 16 TOs it is like the equivalent of walking 8 batters in a game. You could still win the game but it would be an uphill battle. As for the twice as many stat...it is not meaningful. You could have twice as many TO ...2 vs 1 and it wouldn't be a big deal . A little more meaningful would be the difference in TOs. For instance we had an extra 9 TOs and still won this game by 9. Last VCU game we also had a difference of 9 TOs but lost the game by 16. What I use is points off TOs which measures the damage done by the TOs. The 1st VCU game we had a crushing 27 pts scored off TOs. This game we only had 14 pts scored off of TOs ....a drop of 13pts with only 2 less TOs. The beauty of this game was that we beat the best team in the A10 AND we didn't have our best game. We played better than we have been playing over the last few games but there is still more upside....and that's a good thing. -thanks, a season is a work in progress Quote
almaman Posted January 29 Posted January 29 2 hours ago, CenHudDude said: I was disappointed that the machine hadn’t predicted the chances of a brawl breaking out and delaying the game by 7 minutes. Call Kevin Hart! Quote
Old guy Posted January 29 Posted January 29 For those who really want to know. If you wish to bet on the odds of a fight breaking up among fans during a game, I am sure you can find some betting outlet that will take your bet. Why not?, the odds for a fight breaking up among the fans is extremely low. In other words, if you want to throw your money away, you will certainly find some place or someone willing to take the bet and your money. Quote
someoneelse Posted January 29 Posted January 29 26 minutes ago, Old guy said: For those who really want to know. If you wish to bet on the odds of a fight breaking up among fans during a game, I am sure you can find some betting outlet that will take your bet. Why not?, the odds for a fight breaking up among the fans is extremely low. In other words, if you want to throw your money away, you will certainly find some place or someone willing to take the bet and your money. Not sure if you're serious, but I doubt you could find that bet. People would be tempted to make a bet on something that they have control over. Like make a bet on a brawl, then start, or stage, a brawl yourself. Make a bet on me scoring less than ten points, then 'pull a hamstring' three minutes into the game. Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.