The Wiz Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 First let's look at the A-10 report card... Preseason grades.................Final grades......deviation from orig grade 1 Day .....A-.....................................B+................-1 2 SLU.....B+.....................................B..................-1 3 VCU.....B+....................................B+.................0 4 Dav ....B+.....................................B-.................-2 5 Loy.....B+.....................................C-.................-5 6 Rich.....B+....................................C+................-3 7 GM.....B........................................B-.................-1 8 St. B.....B.....................................C+.................-2 9 Mass... B-....................................C..................-2 10 RI.......B-.....................................C-................-3 11 Ford....C......................................B-...............+2 12 GW.....C......................................C-................-1 13 St. J...C......................................C...................0 14 LaS...C-.....................................C-..................0 15 Duq...C-.....................................B-................+3 Some takeaways from the Card....7 of 15 teams were within 1 notch of the preseason forecast (47%) which is pretty accurate...11 teams within 2 notches which is the target (73%) Biggest surprise....Duq followed by Fham... Biggest disappointment....Loy followed by Rich and RI A-10 weakening...Only 2 of the 15 teams out performed...a sign that the A-10 weaken this season. ...This also was a big factor in the A10 receiving only 1 bid. An A- is usually the minimum to get a bid...with a B+ you have a 1/3 chance of receiving a bid...with 5 teams showing a preseason B+...the computer projected 1 auto bid plus 1-2 more at large bids for a total of 2-3 bids. This would have given SLU a decent chance of an at large bid provided they remained at B+...sadly we faded as did the conference (as SLU goes so goes the conference)The truth of the matter is that if there were no auto bids it would have been iffy for any A10 team to make the Dance. A10 summary...Good news ...they were no bad teams in the A10 (no D's or Fs) which is a rarity ...the bad news is there were no really good teams either (no As)....again a rarity. Rarity leads to parity in this case. Bills Report Card Completing the season we were up in 2 categories and down in 3. In this section I usually list our grades plus the team we are about to play to show how we match up....As there is no next game, on the final report card I like to match us up against the National Champs...in this case UConn. Doing this exercise shows what it will take for a deep run into March Madness or even to win it all. It show how we compare and what we need to do to compete on the big stage. ...................SLU...................UConn....................SLU.............................UConn .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B....................A................................C-..................................A- FG%...............A-..................B+..............................A-.................................A+ 3P%...............B...................B+...............................C..................................A+ FT%...............B-...................A...................................................................... Reb...............A.....................A+..............................C+................................A+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FG%...3P%....Def....none Down.........Off......none...Def....PPG...FG%...3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......19th all time D1 list... Assts/TO ratio...Collins...18th...unch... Reb...Okoro...62nd...dn Blks...Okoro ...69th...dn Off Reb...Okoro...33rd...dn Dou Dou...Collins...55th...up 3P%...Jimerson...36th...up...1 more 3 would have put in him in the top 25....had he been able to avoid the mid season slump of a few games he could have finished top 5....glad to have him on board for next year WWN2D2WAC (What We Need 2 Do 2 Win A Championship) As you can see, it was no fluke that UConn won the Championship. They are a good team. We match up with them on offense pretty well. On defense there is more work to be done. Looking at our report card on the defense...lower FG %...lower 3P%...lower opp reb...doing these 3 things will lead to the key...lower PPG. If next year, we can match this year's offense then have that even a moderate increase in defense ...honor roll (nothing lower than a B- ) ...that could lead to an NCAA bid with a deep run. One last thing...TOs...I always harp on them in spread threads....keeping them down. We weren't bad this year...a passable C+...The thing that hurt us was our inability to force opp TOs... At one point we had an abysmal F- ...in the bottom 10 ITN. We rallied as the season closed and pushed up to a still unacceptable F+. Had we managed to equalize our TOs ...ie TOs we commit = TOs we force...that could have led to an additional 4 ppg...and a few more wins. Bottomline Even with the roster turnover this year, I am confident that Ford can recreate our offensive numbers/grades. The question is can he improve moderately on this year's defense. It seems like that is part of his focus in the early going here. We will know more in the coming week's and months. If he can match this year's offense with a moderate improvement on defense ...all very doable... then good things can happen next year. I leave you with the closing line of the Billiken's XMAS story..... "But I heard him exclaim, as he shouted out clear.... The Billikens will win, it will be better next year." See you all in this space in the 1st week of Nov 2023. Go Bills. billikenbill and BuiltFordBills like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, The Wiz said: First let's look at the A-10 report card... Preseason grades.................Final grades......deviation from orig grade 1 Day .....A-.....................................B+................-1 2 SLU.....B+.....................................B..................-1 3 VCU.....B+....................................B+...............+1 4 Dav ....B+.....................................B-.................-2 5 Loy.....B+.....................................C-.................-5 6 Rich.....B+....................................C+................-3 7 GM.....B........................................B-.................-1 8 St. B.....B.....................................C+.................-2 9 Mass... B-....................................C..................-2 10 RI.......B-.....................................C-................-3 11 Ford....C......................................B-...............+2 12 GW.....C......................................C-................-1 13 St. J...C......................................C...................0 14 LaS...C-.....................................C-..................0 15 Duq...C-.....................................B-................+3 Some takeaways from the Card....7 of 15 teams were within 1 notch of the preseason forecast (47%) which is pretty accurate...11 teams within 2 notches which is the target (73%) Biggest surprise....Duq followed by Fham... Biggest disappointment....Loy followed by Rich and RI A-10 weakening...Only 3 of the 15 teams out performed...a sign that the A-10 weaken this season. ...This also was a big factor in the A10 receiving only 1 bid. An A- is usually the minimum to get a bid...with a B+ you have a 1/3 chance of receiving a bid...with 5 teams showing a preseason B+...the computer projected 1 auto bid plus 1-2 more at large bids for a total of 2-3 bids. This would have given SLU a decent chance of an at large bid provided they remained at B+...sadly we faded as did the conference (as SLU goes so goes the conference)The truth of the matter is that if there were no auto bids it would have been iffy for any A10 team to make the Dance. A10 summary...Good news ...they were no bad teams in the A10 (no D's or Fs) which is a rarity ...the bad news is there were no really good teams either (no As)....again a rarity. Rarity leads to parity in this case. Bills Report Card Completing the season we were up in 2 categories and down in 3. In this section I usually list our grades plus the team we are about to play to show how we match up....As there is no next game, on the final report card I like to match us up against the National Champs...in this case UConn. Doing this exercise shows what it will take for a deep run into March Madness or even to win it all. It show how we compare and what we need to do to compete on the big stage. ...................SLU...................UConn....................SLU.............................UConn .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B....................A................................C-..................................A- FG%...............A-..................B+..............................A-.................................A+ 3P%...............B...................B+...............................C..................................A+ FT%...............B-...................A...................................................................... Reb...............A.....................A+..............................C+................................A+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FG%...3P%....Def....none Down.........Off......none...Def....PPG...FG%...3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......19th all time D1 list... Assts/TO ratio...Collins...18th...unch... Reb...Okoro...62nd...dn Blks...Okoro ...69th...dn Off Reb...Okoro...33rd...dn Dou Dou...Collins...55th...up 3P%...Jimerson...36th...up...1 more 3 would have put in him in the top 25....had he been able to avoid the mid season slump of a few games he could have finished top 5....glad to have him on board for next year WWN2D2WAC (What We Need 2 Do 2 Win A Championship) As you can see, it was no fluke that UConn won the Championship. They are a good team. We match up with them on offense pretty well. On defense there is more work to be done. Looking at our report card on the defense...lower FG %...lower 3P%...lower opp reb...doing these 3 things will lead to the key...lower PPG. If next year, we can match this year's offense then have that even a moderate increase in defense ...honor roll (nothing lower than a B- ) ...that could lead to an NCAA bid with a deep run. One last thing...TOs...I always harp on them in spread threads....keeping them down. We weren't bad this year...a passable C+...The thing that hurt us was our inability to force opp TOs... At one point we had an abysmal F- ...in the bottom 10 ITN. We rallied as the season closed and pushed up to a still unacceptable F+. Had we managed to equalize our TOs ...ie TOs we commit = TOs we force...that could have led to an additional 4 ppg...and a few more wins. Bottomline Even with the roster turnover this year, I am confident that Ford can recreate our offensive numbers/grades. The question is can he improve moderately on this year's defense. It seems like that is part of his focus in the early going here. We will know more in the coming week's and months. If he can match this year's offense with a moderate improvement on defense ...all very doable... then good things can happen next year. I leave you with the closing line of the Billiken's XMAS story..... "But I heard him exclaim, as he shouted out clear.... The Billikens will win, it will be better next year." See you all in this space in the 1st week of Nov 2023. Go Bills. All hail Wiz’s mighty computer! Defense wins championships. Looking at UConn’s defensive grades makes that clear, 3 A+’s and 1 A-. We must improve the defensive side of the ball. On the offensive side, FT’s (visions of the Auburn game torturing my mind). Make the free throws please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeniceMenace Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: First let's look at the A-10 report card... Preseason grades.................Final grades......deviation from orig grade 1 Day .....A-.....................................B+................-1 2 SLU.....B+.....................................B..................-1 3 VCU.....B+....................................B+...............+1 4 Dav ....B+.....................................B-.................-2 5 Loy.....B+.....................................C-.................-5 6 Rich.....B+....................................C+................-3 7 GM.....B........................................B-.................-1 8 St. B.....B.....................................C+.................-2 9 Mass... B-....................................C..................-2 10 RI.......B-.....................................C-................-3 11 Ford....C......................................B-...............+2 12 GW.....C......................................C-................-1 13 St. J...C......................................C...................0 14 LaS...C-.....................................C-..................0 15 Duq...C-.....................................B-................+3 Some takeaways from the Card....7 of 15 teams were within 1 notch of the preseason forecast (47%) which is pretty accurate...11 teams within 2 notches which is the target (73%) Biggest surprise....Duq followed by Fham... Biggest disappointment....Loy followed by Rich and RI A-10 weakening...Only 3 of the 15 teams out performed...a sign that the A-10 weaken this season. ...This also was a big factor in the A10 receiving only 1 bid. An A- is usually the minimum to get a bid...with a B+ you have a 1/3 chance of receiving a bid...with 5 teams showing a preseason B+...the computer projected 1 auto bid plus 1-2 more at large bids for a total of 2-3 bids. This would have given SLU a decent chance of an at large bid provided they remained at B+...sadly we faded as did the conference (as SLU goes so goes the conference)The truth of the matter is that if there were no auto bids it would have been iffy for any A10 team to make the Dance. A10 summary...Good news ...they were no bad teams in the A10 (no D's or Fs) which is a rarity ...the bad news is there were no really good teams either (no As)....again a rarity. Rarity leads to parity in this case. Bills Report Card Completing the season we were up in 2 categories and down in 3. In this section I usually list our grades plus the team we are about to play to show how we match up....As there is no next game, on the final report card I like to match us up against the National Champs...in this case UConn. Doing this exercise shows what it will take for a deep run into March Madness or even to win it all. It show how we compare and what we need to do to compete on the big stage. ...................SLU...................UConn....................SLU.............................UConn .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B....................A................................C-..................................A- FG%...............A-..................B+..............................A-.................................A+ 3P%...............B...................B+...............................C..................................A+ FT%...............B-...................A...................................................................... Reb...............A.....................A+..............................C+................................A+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FG%...3P%....Def....none Down.........Off......none...Def....PPG...FG%...3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......19th all time D1 list... Assts/TO ratio...Collins...18th...unch... Reb...Okoro...62nd...dn Blks...Okoro ...69th...dn Off Reb...Okoro...33rd...dn Dou Dou...Collins...55th...up 3P%...Jimerson...36th...up...1 more 3 would have put in him in the top 25....had he been able to avoid the mid season slump of a few games he could have finished top 5....glad to have him on board for next year WWN2D2WAC (What We Need 2 Do 2 Win A Championship) As you can see, it was no fluke that UConn won the Championship. They are a good team. We match up with them on offense pretty well. On defense there is more work to be done. Looking at our report card on the defense...lower FG %...lower 3P%...lower opp reb...doing these 3 things will lead to the key...lower PPG. If next year, we can match this year's offense then have that even a moderate increase in defense ...honor roll (nothing lower than a B- ) ...that could lead to an NCAA bid with a deep run. One last thing...TOs...I always harp on them in spread threads....keeping them down. We weren't bad this year...a passable C+...The thing that hurt us was our inability to force opp TOs... At one point we had an abysmal F- ...in the bottom 10 ITN. We rallied as the season closed and pushed up to a still unacceptable F+. Had we managed to equalize our TOs ...ie TOs we commit = TOs we force...that could have led to an additional 4 ppg...and a few more wins. Bottomline Even with the roster turnover this year, I am confident that Ford can recreate our offensive numbers/grades. The question is can he improve moderately on this year's defense. It seems like that is part of his focus in the early going here. We will know more in the coming week's and months. If he can match this year's offense with a moderate improvement on defense ...all very doable... then good things can happen next year. I leave you with the closing line of the Billiken's XMAS story..... "But I heard him exclaim, as he shouted out clear.... The Billikens will win, it will be better next year." See you all in this space in the 1st week of Nov 2023. Go Bills. Reality check: Will a “moderate” improvement in D result in a significantly better record vs. last season’s 1-5 record vs top 3 A10 teams? Or zilch wins vs. ranked teams? He has to get this team at least back to a top 50 D like a few years back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 24 minutes ago, VeniceMenace said: Reality check: Will a “moderate” improvement in D result in a significantly better record vs. last season’s 1-5 record vs top 3 A10 teams? Or zilch wins vs. ranked teams? He has to get this team at least back to a top 50 D like a few years back. I’ll go with a “substantial” improvement in D is needed, personally, in order to get us in the NCAA. VeniceMenace likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted April 5, 2023 Author Share Posted April 5, 2023 I think we are dealing with semantics. Let me try to clarify the grades with numbers... First, I see a moderate improvement as a B average and a substantial improvement as an A- average or in the words of @VeniceMenace a "top 50 defense. The following assumptions assumes our offense stays the same. In order to go from where we are to a B average we would need to make the following moderate improvement on defense....3P% ...go from 33.7% down to 32.1% and 71.2 Opp PPG down to 69.5 PPG. The computer thinks that moderate change would have got us into the Dance and 1 or 2 wins depending on seeding. In order to go from where we were to a substantial improvement (top 50 D) we need to do the following on D....3P% ...from 33.7% to 31.5%...opp Reb...from 33.8 to 32.1 ...and finally Opp PPG ...from 71.2 PPG down to 66. The computer thinks that substantial change would have got us into the Dance and made a long run... E8 or FF4. So there you have it ...moderate change, very doable...substantial change... possible but you have to make a real commitment on defense. VeniceMenace likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Yeah, it’s all semantics, if we want to win more games, we must improve the defense. How much we improve will determine how many games we win, stay where we are on defense, we watch the tournament at home. Just also please improve free throws as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 We don't have time to make a bunch of incremental improvements. If we don't make substantial improvements on D then we probably won't be much better overall than last year. We were pretty far off from getting to the Dance. We have to be able to play in the conference championship game and finish 1 or 2 in the conference standings. The other A10 teams are not going to stand pat so we have to account for that and improve overall. RM knew that D was the key and that is how he taught the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 12 hours ago, The Wiz said: First let's look at the A-10 report card... Preseason grades.................Final grades......deviation from orig grade 1 Day .....A-.....................................B+................-1 2 SLU.....B+.....................................B..................-1 3 VCU.....B+....................................B+...............+1 4 Dav ....B+.....................................B-.................-2 5 Loy.....B+.....................................C-.................-5 6 Rich.....B+....................................C+................-3 7 GM.....B........................................B-.................-1 8 St. B.....B.....................................C+.................-2 9 Mass... B-....................................C..................-2 10 RI.......B-.....................................C-................-3 11 Ford....C......................................B-...............+2 12 GW.....C......................................C-................-1 13 St. J...C......................................C...................0 14 LaS...C-.....................................C-..................0 15 Duq...C-.....................................B-................+3 Some takeaways from the Card....7 of 15 teams were within 1 notch of the preseason forecast (47%) which is pretty accurate...11 teams within 2 notches which is the target (73%) Biggest surprise....Duq followed by Fham... Biggest disappointment....Loy followed by Rich and RI A-10 weakening...Only 3 of the 15 teams out performed...a sign that the A-10 weaken this season. ...This also was a big factor in the A10 receiving only 1 bid. An A- is usually the minimum to get a bid...with a B+ you have a 1/3 chance of receiving a bid...with 5 teams showing a preseason B+...the computer projected 1 auto bid plus 1-2 more at large bids for a total of 2-3 bids. This would have given SLU a decent chance of an at large bid provided they remained at B+...sadly we faded as did the conference (as SLU goes so goes the conference)The truth of the matter is that if there were no auto bids it would have been iffy for any A10 team to make the Dance. A10 summary...Good news ...they were no bad teams in the A10 (no D's or Fs) which is a rarity ...the bad news is there were no really good teams either (no As)....again a rarity. Rarity leads to parity in this case. Bills Report Card Completing the season we were up in 2 categories and down in 3. In this section I usually list our grades plus the team we are about to play to show how we match up....As there is no next game, on the final report card I like to match us up against the National Champs...in this case UConn. Doing this exercise shows what it will take for a deep run into March Madness or even to win it all. It show how we compare and what we need to do to compete on the big stage. ...................SLU...................UConn....................SLU.............................UConn .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B....................A................................C-..................................A- FG%...............A-..................B+..............................A-.................................A+ 3P%...............B...................B+...............................C..................................A+ FT%...............B-...................A...................................................................... Reb...............A.....................A+..............................C+................................A+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FG%...3P%....Def....none Down.........Off......none...Def....PPG...FG%...3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......19th all time D1 list... Assts/TO ratio...Collins...18th...unch... Reb...Okoro...62nd...dn Blks...Okoro ...69th...dn Off Reb...Okoro...33rd...dn Dou Dou...Collins...55th...up 3P%...Jimerson...36th...up...1 more 3 would have put in him in the top 25....had he been able to avoid the mid season slump of a few games he could have finished top 5....glad to have him on board for next year WWN2D2WAC (What We Need 2 Do 2 Win A Championship) As you can see, it was no fluke that UConn won the Championship. They are a good team. We match up with them on offense pretty well. On defense there is more work to be done. Looking at our report card on the defense...lower FG %...lower 3P%...lower opp reb...doing these 3 things will lead to the key...lower PPG. If next year, we can match this year's offense then have that even a moderate increase in defense ...honor roll (nothing lower than a B- ) ...that could lead to an NCAA bid with a deep run. One last thing...TOs...I always harp on them in spread threads....keeping them down. We weren't bad this year...a passable C+...The thing that hurt us was our inability to force opp TOs... At one point we had an abysmal F- ...in the bottom 10 ITN. We rallied as the season closed and pushed up to a still unacceptable F+. Had we managed to equalize our TOs ...ie TOs we commit = TOs we force...that could have led to an additional 4 ppg...and a few more wins. Bottomline Even with the roster turnover this year, I am confident that Ford can recreate our offensive numbers/grades. The question is can he improve moderately on this year's defense. It seems like that is part of his focus in the early going here. We will know more in the coming week's and months. If he can match this year's offense with a moderate improvement on defense ...all very doable... then good things can happen next year. I leave you with the closing line of the Billiken's XMAS story..... "But I heard him exclaim, as he shouted out clear.... The Billikens will win, it will be better next year." See you all in this space in the 1st week of Nov 2023. Go Bills. Thanks as always Wiz. Good stuff. Shouldn’t VCU’s deviation be 0, or were they pre season rated B? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted April 5, 2023 Author Share Posted April 5, 2023 50 minutes ago, CenHudDude said: Yes ...VCU was a direct hit...no deviation...which means only 2 A10 teams outperformed their preseason forecast. Fixed it...Thx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 -in the original post by The Wiz the number of negatives, or under-performing or over-exuberance depending on pov, is hard to stomach -I've bitten too often, I vow to not fall into the over-exuberant crowd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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