The Wiz Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 General Outlook....We clinched the double bye. We have a small chance to finish 3rd (16%) which means we have an 84% chance to finish 4th. As a 4th seed , our most probable opponent would be DQ...if that doesn't happen , then next up would be Mason and finally the smallest chance...GW( they would have to beat VCU among other things happening). Finishing out the chain, the next most probable games after the 1st one would be Day with a finish against VCU. Are there chances for an upset ?... let's hope so. It is important to note there are no dominant teams like in past years. There are a number of teams that could win the tourney including the Bills. Game Outlook... But first we have 1 more game left...Dayton is the best defense we will face since...well, since we last played Dayton a month ago... They are one of the best defensive teams ITN (14th or better ITN on all defensive categories in the report card).....While there will be no pressure to win this game, a victory would give us some momentum going into the tourney ... Just remember this...RI (9-20 & 5-12) beat them . That's all you need to know. Report Card.... 1 category up( Off 3P%) .....No category down. Dayton has changed a bit on offense since we last saw them...2 up (FG%, 3P% ) and 2 down (FT%, Reb)...Def remains unchanged at A+. We have the better offense. Let's look at the report card... ...................SLU......................Day........................SLU.............................Day .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B....................D+............................C-..................................A+...12th ITN FG%...............B+..................A..............................A-.................................A+...10th ITN 3P%...............B...................C+.............................B-..................................A+...7th ITN FT%...............B-...................D.................................................................. Reb...............A.....................B-...............................C+................................A+...14th ITN OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none....Def....Opp rebs Down.........Off......none...Def....3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......22nd all time D1 list...1st all time A10 single season Assts/TO ratio...Collins...20th...dn Reb...Okoro...48th...up Blks...Okoro ...88th...dn Off Reb...Okoro...26th ...dn Dou Dou...Collins...65th...dn 3P%...49th...up 3PM....Jimerson...66th DAY PPG....Holmes...63rd...up FG%...Holmes...53rd...dn Blks...Holmes...43rd...dn Dou Dou...Holmes...20th ...dn...Camara...92nd...up Rebs...Camara...55th...up...Holmes...71st...up Def Reb...Camara...39th...up Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills....2/8..Thames....Out indefinitely...undisclosed.....No timetable for return DAY...none Keys to the game.... Stopping Holmes and Camara....as you can see by the report card Holmes is their main man. But if you want to win , you have to stop both... Dayton can make shots close to the basket...every step back from the basket their percentages drop quickly. Make them shoot from as far away as possible on every shot. ...Protect the ball. TO differential will be important ..No careless passes.. bother them as much as possible . They do turn the ball over. And finally make some shots...we have an edge on offense , hopefully we will take advantage of it. Avoid foul trouble...last game against Day Okoro and Forrester both had 4 fouls. The other side of this coin is as a result of the fouls...they had twice as many FTA (26-13) as we did. Even though they are a bad FT shooting team, you can't give them that many chances. Every foul, Day had generated 1.18 FTA...Every foul the Bills generated 0.87 FTA....not good for the Bills. Not only are you creating more FTAs but they are mainly shooting fouls. WWN2D2W...Make the slash...47/36/75...Hold their top guys Holmes, Camara, Smith and Brea to 48 pts combined.....Keep them under 70 pts...Match them on TOs & Reb Bottom line....Dayton has a weak offense (except close in), and strong defense.... 2 great players...This game will be about the unstoppable force (the Bills when they are on ) vs the immovable object( Dayton when they don't turn the ball over)...If the good, 40 minute Bills show up, we can Fly right over Day into the Tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I will believe it when I see it - so far this year the team has managed to thumb their noses at your well put together predictions I hope you are right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Looks like about 120 total tickets left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 A win ties us with Dayton for second. A Fordham win over Duquesne will create a three-way tie for second and composite records are Dayton 2 and 1; Fordham 1 and 1; and SLU 1 and 2 meaning we get fourth. We bounce up to third if we win and Duquesne beats Fordham. If we lose, and Fordham wins, Fordham gets third and we are 3 and 0 against the three teams that coudl tie us at 11 and 7 --- Mason, Duquesne and Geedubya. A win would raise some doubt as to the result should we meet Dayton in Brooklyn. Dayton is only a .500 team away from Dayton. As noted, Dayton goes as Camara and Holmes go. Holmes is a stationary figure in the paint; I really haven't seen him expand his game outside down low and he does dominate down low. Camara is more mobile ---he is like Burton/Moore/Alston. The guard have been nondescript this year, due mostly to injury. Brea is the guard gunner; Amzil launches the second most on the team. Both are decidedly better at home. Elvis is still toting that heavy knee brace on his right knee and Smith continues to battle ankle problems. Blakney, the defensive stopper, can be streaky. Normally, I'd have high confidence on teh Bills winning this at home. This year --- not so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 elvis being somewhat limited with the knee is huge imo. he did a splendid job taking jimerson out of the game at dayton and that was a huge factor in our loss imo. i would bet they put elvis on perkins who we know is a dangerous spot up shooter if left open and with both of them not 100% with the legs, it makes for a good matchup that i would utilize if i was both coaches. (of course i am not the $2m a year coach of either team so doesnt matter). yuri needs to keep the pace going. why would we play slow if dayton's strength is half court defense? get out in front of that as much as possible. but as the season has went, we will probably see that for a short period of time in the first half than resort to hero ball which has been so successful this season. i am hopeful but not optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 6 minutes ago, billiken_roy said: yuri needs to keep the pace going. why would we play slow if dayton's strength is half court defense? get out in front of that as much as possible. but as the season has went, we will probably see that for a short period of time in the first half than resort to hero ball which has been so successful this season. There's a ton of times this season where we're left saying why did we play slow. We just do. SLU is capable of winning not only Dayton, but Brooklyn if we play out style all the way through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARon Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Let's be real. Flyers by 10 Schasz likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compton Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Last chance for a signature conference season win. Gotta finish strong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 57 minutes ago, The Wiz said: General Outlook....We clinched the double bye. We have a small chance to finish 3rd (16%) which means we have an 84% chance to finish 4th. As a 4th seed , our most probable opponent would be DQ...if that doesn't happen , then next up would be Mason and finally the smallest chance...GW( they would have to beat VCU among other things happening). Finishing out the chain, the next most probable games after the 1st one would be Day with a finish against VCU. Are there chances for an upset ?... let's hope so. It is important to note there are no dominant teams like in past years. There are a number of teams that could win the tourney including the Bills. Game Outlook... But first we have 1 more game left...Dayton is the best defense we will face since...well, since we last played Dayton a month ago... They are one of the best defensive teams ITN (14th or better ITN on all defensive categories in the report card).....While there will be no pressure to win this game, a victory would give us some momentum going into the tourney ... Just remember this...RI (9-20 & 5-12) beat them . That's all you need to know. Report Card.... 1 category up( Off 3P%) .....No category down. Dayton has changed a bit on offense since we last saw them...2 up (FG%, 3P% ) and 2 down (FT%, Reb)...Def remains unchanged at A+. We have the better offense. Let's look at the report card... ...................SLU......................Day........................SLU.............................Day .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B....................D+............................C-..................................A+...12th ITN FG%...............B+..................A..............................A-.................................A+...10th ITN 3P%...............B...................C+.............................B-..................................A+...7th ITN FT%...............B-...................D.................................................................. Reb...............A.....................B-...............................C+................................A+...14th ITN OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none....Def....Opp rebs Down.........Off......none...Def....3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......22nd all time D1 list...1st all time A10 single season Assts/TO ratio...Collins...20th...dn Reb...Okoro...48th...up Blks...Okoro ...88th...dn Off Reb...Okoro...26th ...dn Dou Dou...Collins...65th...dn 3P%...49th...up 3PM....Jimerson...66th DAY PPG....Holmes...63rd...up FG%...Holmes...53rd...dn Blks...Holmes...43rd...dn Dou Dou...Holmes...20th ...dn...Camara...92nd...up Rebs...Camara...55th...up...Holmes...71st...up Def Reb...Camara...39th...up Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills....2/8..Thames....Out indefinitely...undisclosed.....No timetable for return DAY...none Keys to the game.... Stopping Holmes and Camara....as you can see by the report card Holmes is their main man. But if you want to win , you have to stop both... Dayton can make shots close to the basket...every step back from the basket their percentages drop quickly. Make them shoot from as far away as possible on every shot. ...Protect the ball. TO differential will be important ..No careless passes.. bother them as much as possible . They do turn the ball over. And finally make some shots...we have an edge on offense , hopefully we will take advantage of it. Avoid foul trouble...last game against Day Okoro and Forrester both had 4 fouls. The other side of this coin is as a result of the fouls...they had twice as many FTA (26-13) as we did. Even though they are a bad FT shooting team, you can't give them that many chances. Every foul, Day had generated 1.18 FTA...Every foul the Bills generated 0.87 FTA....not good for the Bills. Not only are you creating more FTAs but they are mainly shooting fouls. WWN2D2W...Make the slash...47/36/75...Hold their top guys Holmes, Camara, Smith and Brea to 48 pts combined.....Keep them under 70 pts...Match them on TOs & Reb Bottom line....Dayton has a weak offense (except close in), and strong defense.... 2 great players...This game will be about the unstoppable force (the Bills when they are on ) vs the immovable object( Dayton when they don't turn the ball over)...If the good, 40 minute Bills show up, we can Fly right over Day into the Tourney. Wiz does this prediction take into account whether or not Jordair Jett will be seated courtside? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 43 minutes ago, CenHudDude said: Wiz does this prediction take into account whether or not Jordair Jett will be seated courtside? Depends on if he throws a chair or not. Bills By 40 likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 -as I posted after the game in Ohio, I hope Jordair is the guest of Doc in one of his seats Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonny karate Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Arch baron cup is pressure enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Taj79 said: A win ties us with Dayton for second. A Fordham win over Duquesne will create a three-way tie for second and composite records are Dayton 2 and 1; Fordham 1 and 1; and SLU 1 and 2 meaning we get fourth. We bounce up to third if we win and Duquesne beats Fordham. If we lose, and Fordham wins, Fordham gets third and we are 3 and 0 against the three teams that coudl tie us at 11 and 7 --- Mason, Duquesne and Geedubya. A win would raise some doubt as to the result should we meet Dayton in Brooklyn. Dayton is only a .500 team away from Dayton. As noted, Dayton goes as Camara and Holmes go. Holmes is a stationary figure in the paint; I really haven't seen him expand his game outside down low and he does dominate down low. Camara is more mobile ---he is like Burton/Moore/Alston. The guard have been nondescript this year, due mostly to injury. Brea is the guard gunner; Amzil launches the second most on the team. Both are decidedly better at home. Elvis is still toting that heavy knee brace on his right knee and Smith continues to battle ankle problems. Blakney, the defensive stopper, can be streaky. Normally, I'd have high confidence on teh Bills winning this at home. This year --- not so much. Even if SLU loses to Dayton, if Duquesne wins at Fordham, and Mason wins at Richmond, SLU gets the 3 Seed, Fordham 4, Duquesne 5, and Mason 6. If SLU beats Dayton, Duquesne wins at Fordham and Mason wins at Richmond, SLU gets the 3 Seed, Duquesne 4, Mason 5, and Fordham 6. Neither scenario is probable, meaning more likely than not, per Sagarin, but neither are remote possibilities either. So the Dayton game definitely matters, on multiple levels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 6 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said: Even if SLU loses to Dayton, if Duquesne wins at Fordham, and Mason wins at Richmond, SLU gets the 3 Seed, Fordham 4, Duquesne 5, and Mason 6. If SLU beats Dayton, Duquesne wins at Fordham and Mason wins at Richmond, SLU gets the 3 Seed, Duquesne 4, Mason 5, and Fordham 6. Neither scenario is probable, meaning more likely than not, per Sagarin, but neither are remote possibilities either. So the Dayton game definitely matters, on multiple levels. And it matters who gets to take home the coveted Arch-Baron Cup… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 20 minutes ago, Cowboy II said: -as I posted after the game in Ohio, I hope Jordair is the guest of Doc in one of his seats Better yet, either position Jordair behind the Dayton bench or put Jordair with Andre Craig in the southwest corner, perpendicular to the UD bench. That corner seat was once my seat at the Checkerdome. From there we implored Denny Crum to put Marty Pulliam into the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 This game is virtually meaningless to Dayton other than staying healthy. I would hope we roll them on senior night. Looking forward to this one. Go into Brooklyn with a really solid win is important in my opinion HoosierPal likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 hours ago, slufan13 said: This game is virtually meaningless to Dayton other than staying healthy. I would hope we roll them on senior night. Looking forward to this one. Go into Brooklyn with a really solid win is important in my opinion Dayton wins, they are the second seed. Their most likely opponent is GW. Dayton loses, they are the second seed. Their most likely opponent is GW. (This assumes GW survives the PIG winner.) Dayton's biggest issue is Smith's and Blakney's health. Without Smith in particular, their chances in Barkley diminish greatly. Bills with a second seed, most likely first game opponents are Duquesne and George Mason. Bills with a third seed, most likely first game opponents are George Mason and Duquesne. Game really doesn't have much meaning for the Tourney setup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: Dayton wins, they are the second seed. Their most likely opponent is GW. Dayton loses, they are the second seed. Their most likely opponent is GW. Dayton's biggest issue is Smith's and Blakney's health. Without Smith in particular, their chances in Barkley diminish greatly. gotta think Mali is healthy, hes averaging about 33 minutes now over the last handful of games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juniorbill76 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, HoosierPal said: Dayton wins, they are the second seed. Their most likely opponent is GW. Dayton loses, they are the second seed. Their most likely opponent is GW. (This assumes GW survives the PIG winner.) Dayton's biggest issue is Smith's and Blakney's health. Without Smith in particular, their chances in Barkley diminish greatly. Bills with a second seed, most likely first game opponents are Duquesne and George Mason. Bills with a third seed, most likely first game opponents are George Mason and Duquesne. Game really doesn't have much meaning for the Tourney setup. nm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DOC Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/2/2023 at 10:14 AM, wgstl said: There's a ton of times this season where we're left saying why did we play slow. We just do. SLU is capable of winning not only Dayton, but Brooklyn if we play out style all the way through. We played slow at times because we can’t stop our opponent and you can’t run on made baskets. The late game hero ball is definitely real, but otherwise it’s just not true. We lead the league in scoring and we don’t shoot lights out by any stretch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 It'd be cool to not finish behind f.u.c.king Fordham in the standings so I sure hope we win and give ourselves a chance at that Box and Won, 2010andBeyond and BC1764 like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 A good win tonight...There was a 2.5 pt difference in the spread tonight between me and Vegas...not normally a big difference except it was big tonight as Vegas had Day favored by 1.5... that 2 .5pt variance was the difference between winning and losing. Nice to be on the right side. Let's look behind the numbers and see what happened...Bolded phrases from original post above. Hold their top guys Holmes, Camara, Smith and Brea to 48 pts combined.... we did...33 pts...excellent Keep them under 70 pts...61pts... an excellent defensive effort... Avoid foul trouble...last game against Day, Okoro and Forrester both had 4 fouls. The other side of this coin is as a result of the fouls...they had twice as many FTA (26-13) as we did. Even though they are a bad FT shooting team, you can't give them that many chances. ..we learned...Bills 9-9...Day 5-8...another good showing. Match them on TOs & Reb...This turned out to be a wash...We had an extra 4 TOs (but only 8 for the game which is very good ) and canceled those out by getting an extra 4 rebs. Make the slash...47/36/75...Even though this was a miss , it too worked out. We scored 7 pts less as a result of missing on the slash...42/32/100. ..two 2s and one 3=7. However we kept Day more than 8 pt below their scoring average and 9 pts less than they scored against us a month ago. Bottom line...Dayton = great defensive team...Bills win by beating Day at their own game...defense. The Bills played a great defensive game against a great defensive team and won. If the good, 40 minute Bills show up, we can Fly right over Day into the Tourney... .we are flying now...3 more wins to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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