Rightly or wrongly, whether many want to admit it or not

[wgstl]

3 minutes ago, johnbj14 said:

Any hire will have some inherent risk. Because of the type of program SLU is, the true risk free hire just isn’t out there. It isn’t hard to pile holes in a coach who was fired from the P6 level, rising low/mid-major coach, or hot shot assistant.
 

Chris Mack is.  And there are a few low major coaches that will be moving up a lot, but likely for p5.  

[dlarry]

6 minutes ago, wgstl said:

a 5 year setback can definitely happen with a bad coaching hire. And can also send us right into the NCAA tournament in year 1 with a good coaching hire.  

we're on year 4 of being close but no cigar in the regular season. Everyone's different, but I'm sick of being just "close".  

This all said, there may be an answer for both sides. Lets say Ford comes back next year(better chance than not), and doesn't make the tournament , are you ok with moving on then? or do we need to see what he can do in year 9 to finally get a good idea?

 

What worries me about retaining Ford is how little he has done with so much.

Most people have said this is the most talented Billiken team in Ford’s tenure and he isn’t even close to a tourney bid.

If Ford keeps failing it it going to get harder and harder to recruit the same talent level we have now. So what is he going to do with lesser talent?

This was the year Ford was suppose to make a run and use that run to bring in even better talent. I’m worried the exact opposite has happened. 

[dlarry]

10 minutes ago, johnbj14 said:

Any hire will have some inherent risk. Because of the type of program SLU is, the true risk free hire just isn’t out there. It isn’t hard to pile holes in a coach who was fired from the P6 level, rising low/mid-major coach, or hot shot assistant.
 

The alternative of sticking with what we have for fear of the new hire being worse though is a really scary proposition. It feels like we’ve seen the height of what Ford can do here, and it is short of what a lot of us feel the program can achieve. 

Is that risk any higher than keeping Ford and hoping he learns how to coach? 
 

[BC1764]

20 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Umass has 9500k

Richmond has 9k

Ryan center 7600

All im saying is we're top 3.  and we will never be 1, there's a good chance we finish 2nd this year. 

 

Agreed. No one will ever top Dayton. Basketball is all they have.

[johnbj14]

2 minutes ago, dlarry said:

Is that risk any higher than keeping Ford and hoping he learns how to coach? 
 

In my eyes, no. A bad hire only is devastating if the department is slow to move on. Butler is a fantastic example. They replaced Brad Stevens with the wrong guy. He was gone after a year and then they brought in Chris Holtmann. 

[johnbj14]

11 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Chris Mack is.  And there are a few low major coaches that will be moving up a lot, but likely for p5.  

Chris Mack was made in a lab for this opening. The stars couldn’t be aligned more perfectly. The only real questions are if he’s going to pursue a job this cycle, if SLU will be open, and how big of a bidding war he’d command. 

[brianstl]

What are the next five years going to be with a new coach?  Hell, I am more worried about what the next five years will be like with Ford as coach.  Recruiting has dropped already as we can’t sell building a program anymore as we will be in year eight of the building process and we move further away from that one miraculous Brooklyn run.

What can SLU sell on the recruiting trail with Ford right now?

[HoosierPal]

27 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Umass has 9500k

Richmond has 9k

Ryan center 7600

All im saying is we're top 3.  and we will never be 1, there's a good chance we finish 2nd this year. 

 

 % capacity for me is a more telling metric as to regional support.  We at 67% overall season and 71% for A10 games.  Without looking it up, Dayton has to be near 100%, and VCU 95%.  St. B is running about 50% capacity this season.  Robbins Center was remodeled and now has a 7201 capacity.  Richmond is about 85% for the season. 

For this season we are in the top 4 on % capacity.  On a good year, St. B would be well above what they are showing this season.

[Cowboy II]

47 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

or we have a lot of corporate seats that really couldnt care less if the seats get used and dont have (or wont take the time) to get the seats to someone that will use them. 

-you've made how many recent posts about money and this post is critical of some of those that are paying big,big dollars to the U

 

[billiken_roy]

50 minutes ago, BANGheGOTit said:

You want a guarantee.  That’s probably going to be a slight issue moving forward.  There are no guarantees.  You keep mentioning a 5 year setback.  Quick turnarounds are impossible?  Hmmm, for some reason I had a crazy dream that Mizzou was ranked and is getting ready to make the tournament!  Crazy how the mind works.  That can’t happen—they fired their coach and got a almost completely different roster! Rebuilds take 5 years!  I guess SLU is just incapable of making progress at the scale of other programs?  With the portal, NIL, etc—it can happen in a very quick amount of time.  Let’s say SLU goes down this path and the next 2 or years are .500–with 7 seasons of this same staff, what’s the difference between a 22-23 win season and missing the tournament or a 15/16 win season if in the “rebuilding process” the result ends up with another good 5-6 year run or better?  I don’t care if SLU wins 26-28 games per year if it ends with no NCAA tournament.  

quick turnarounds with a going cheap replacement coach are indeed rare.   since you havent detailed how we are going to afford a high impact great coach and our track record is not getting a great known coach, yes, i do believe it will be the usual 5 year rebuild process maybe more because i have yet to see proof we will play in the NiL sandbox that is trending to be the way to rebuild fast.   that will be expense as well as these sure thing transfers are costing money.   

i have learned not to get optimistic with coaching changes (well with crews i was more optimistic because it literally couldnt get worse.   this is different.   ford will win 20 games, be on the verge of winning the A10 and getting a tourney spot most years imo.   that isnt a bad coach.   not great, but sure not crewsplatt like.  

[brianstl]

2 hours ago, cheeseman said:

If you think the Carp signing was MO's decision you clearly don't understand that Dewitt has to approve all contracts - it was him wanted to sign Carp.  Same holds true for Ford - May is not making that decision it is the BOT and Pesty.  Now that doesn't mean that both weren't in a favor of the signings.

If Ford got the rumored contract extension it was a May decision.  

[JMM28]

30 minutes ago, brianstl said:

What are the next five years going to be with a new coach?  Hell, I am more worried about what the next five years will be like with Ford as coach.  Recruiting has dropped already as we can’t sell building a program anymore as we will be in year eight of the building process and we move further away from that one miraculous Brooklyn run.

What can SLU sell on the recruiting trail with Ford right now?

This is a good point. You definitely aren't selling development, because there isn't much of that going on. The hometown angle doesn't do much without winning. 

"Come to SLU and you can take a lot of trips to the northeast every winter!"

[billiken_roy]

13 minutes ago, Cowboy II said:

-you've made how many recent posts about money and this post is critical of some of those that are paying big,big dollars to the U

 

what's your point?

i think you are mixing statements to suit your argument.   those not showing up for games or giving away their tickets can do what they want.   that isnt costing the program anything only taking away from the atmosphere.   

[brianstl]

Just now, JMM28 said:

This is a good point. You definitely aren't selling development, because there isn't much of that going on. The hometown angle doesn't do much without winning. 

"Come to SLU and you can take a lot of trips to the northeast every winter!"

And lose to the OVC program right across the river.

[johnbj14]

2 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

quick turnarounds with a going cheap replacement coach are indeed rare.   since you havent detailed how we are going to afford a high impact great coach and our track record is not getting a great known coach, yes, i do believe it will be the usual 5 year rebuild process maybe more because i have yet to see proof we will play in the NiL sandbox that is trending to be the way to rebuild fast.   that will be expense as well as these sure thing transfers are costing money.   

i have learned not to get optimistic with coaching changes (well with crews i was more optimistic because it literally couldnt get worse.   this is different.   ford will win 20 games, be on the verge of winning the A10 and getting a tourney spot most years imo.   that isnt a bad coach.   not great, but sure not crewsplatt like.  

Curious why you are so convinced the next hire will be a cheap one. If high money donors are willing to cut the cord on Travis, then they will be willing to pony up for a serious replacement. You don't make that former decision without assurances of the latter. 

[billikenfan05]

19 hours ago, Marlow said:

Whenever I watch Creighton play in games of consequence on national TV-and relying heavily on a post player from St. Louis-I get jealous. Why do we seem so far from this?

Only game in Omaha between November and March.

[Schasz]

10 minutes ago, johnbj14 said:

Curious why you are so convinced the next hire will be a cheap one. If high money donors are willing to cut the cord on Travis, then they will be willing to pony up for a serious replacement. You don't make that former decision without assurances of the latter. 

Agree with your point with one caveat...Chris May is still the SLU AD and he hired Ford. If they do decide to fire Ford then I'll sure hope they set up a committee of folks who are involved in interviewing and selection of the new HC to ensure May doesn't repeat his last mistake.

[Lord Elrond]

 

10 minutes ago, johnbj14 said:

Curious why you are so convinced the next hire will be a cheap one. If high money donors are willing to cut the cord on Travis, then they will be willing to pony up for a serious replacement. You don't make that former decision without assurances of the latter. 

I guess it depends upon how important you think the NIL money coming into players on your team is.  If you think NIL money is more important going forward, do you need to put a lot of money in a big name head coach?  If you think the impact of NIL dollars isn’t that important, then big money in a coach makes sense. Unless you think we have the money to do both (which I personally doubt, but that’s just my opinion), you may have to decide which makes more sense for the program going forward.

[slu72]

1 hour ago, dlarry said:

What worries me about retaining Ford is how little he has done with so much.

Most people have said this is the most talented Billiken team in Ford’s tenure and he isn’t even close to a tourney bid.

If Ford keeps failing it it going to get harder and harder to recruit the same talent level we have now. So what is he going to do with lesser talent?

This was the year Ford was suppose to make a run and use that run to bring in even better talent. I’m worried the exact opposite has happened. 

This is what scares me. Even with the NIL effect playing a role in where talent goes, players still want to play for winners. And when do winners get the spotlight on them? March Madness. Ford may bring in talent, but when the recruit does his homework, he’s gonna think “but he still doesn’t win. Hmmm, maybe he’s not a very good coach.”

[pakapablo]

9 minutes ago, Schasz said:

Agree with your point with one caveat...Chris May is still the SLU AD and he hired Ford. If they do decide to fire Ford then I'll sure hope they set up a committee of folks who are involved in interviewing and selection of the new HC to ensure May doesn't repeat his last mistake.

I am not sure I would call hiring TF a mistake. More like it may be time for a change.

[johnbj14]

Just now, pakapablo said:

I am not sure I would call hiring TF a mistake. More like it may be time for a change.

This is how I feel 100%. Ford was the right hire at the time to clean up the program, raise the floor, and bring necessary facilities improvements to help keep Chaifetz on par with P5 facilities. It seems that we have seen the ceiling of his tenure, and a replacement can help unlock another level of Billiken success now that the program is back on solid footing. 

[Schasz]

4 minutes ago, slu72 said:

This is what scares me. Even with the NIL effect playing a role in where talent goes, players still want to play for winners. And when do winners get the spotlight on them? March Madness. Ford may bring in talent, but when the recruit does his homework, he’s gonna think “but he still doesn’t win. Hmmm, maybe he’s not a very good coach.”

SLU72...definitely agree with your last statement.  For those questioning my saying Ford was a bad hire...I was not in favor of the hire from the start...I think I've stated that several times in the past.

[CenHudDude]

2 hours ago, wgstl said:

I believe we are 3rd most years. 

How many other teams in the conference have “arenas” that sear more than 6500?

[wgstl]

14 minutes ago, CenHudDude said:

How many other teams in the conference have “arenas” that sear more than 6500?

At least a few. Rhody, Richmond, and umass. 

[wgstl]

1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

 % capacity for me is a more telling metric as to regional support.  We at 67% overall season and 71% for A10 games.  Without looking it up, Dayton has to be near 100%, and VCU 95%.  St. B is running about 50% capacity this season.  Robbins Center was remodeled and now has a 7201 capacity.  Richmond is about 85% for the season. 

For this season we are in the top 4 on % capacity.  On a good year, St. B would be well above what they are showing this season.

% is helpful in determining how difficult it may be to play somewhere.  Pure # is what should be used to gauge fan support.