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The Bills over Ford by 4


The Wiz

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General Outlook

We look up at the standings today and see SLU at the top of the heap in 1st place...It is a good place to be.  There were those who said after the SIU-e and UMass losses that the season was over.   The computer in the preconference look said we would be favored in the 1st 11 games....We are 7-1 ...pretty much on track and still favored in the next 3. But this is not a time to rest on our laurels. There is much work to be done to get an auto bid or an at large bid (yes it is possible.)  In the preconference forecast on Xmas day, I wrote the most likely outcome was a 15-3 record which would give us a chance at an NCAA bid. I ran the simulations today and the computer is still showing us at 15-3 substituting the loss at UMass for a win at Rich. Then I ran a series of simulations to determine our best/easiest path to a Dance bid.  The answer is to finish as one of the top 4 teams in conference  and then finish 2nd in the A10 tourney. Those 25 wins along with a strong finish should give us an at large bid.  Of course if we win the tourney this all becomes moot. But that is where we stand today.  I would not worry too much about the NET.   We have to win games...a lot of games BUT the computer says we will...There is not much margin for error ...either in number of games to win or in the individual game spreads...many games will be very close...a TO or bad call or a missed FT could be the deciding factor.  Buckle up ...Mr. Toad will be driving.

Game Outlook

We come into this game still at B+...where we started the season.   Meanwhile we are going to visit a 17-4 team that plays in a cracker box. Should we be worried?  No.   Should we be concerned? Yes.  Fordham despite their lofty record (weak SOS) is sporting an overall grade of C+.  This is essentially a 2 man team...Quissenberry and Moore...stop them and you win.  The computer is not worried because it knows we are capable of stopping them...However it is concerned as to ..will we stop them.  Let's look at a couple of recent games in the A10....When Dav played Fham they held the 2 players to 8 pts...Fham wound up with only 43pts as a team...GW used a different strategy . They decided we won't focus on those two guys... let's just play our game. Results ...the 2 Fham players scored 52pts  and the Rams wound up with 80 pts.   I vote for the Dav  model.

There are a few other twists to this team ..Charlton will steal the ball if given a chance and Tsimbila can block some shots also if given the chance.

Fham has an above average defense and some serious weaknesses on offense...as in they can't shoot with the exception of FTs.

But the bottom line formula is ...Stop Quiz + Moore=Win

Report Card....

2 categories up ...none down.  Another clean Card (no Ds or Fs)...as long as we have a "clean Card " we will be favored in most of the rest of the games.  While opponent PPG has improved, it is still the weakest part of the Card.   I think this is the most important stat on the sheet for the rest of the season.  Further, if we can raise that grade from C- to  C ...I would then say not only will we be favored for most of the rest of the games BUT we would actually win most of the rest of the games. What would it take to get to C....giving up less than 70 pts a game.  We have to play with a purpose...not just trying to outscore them or keep them from getting open shots...We need the discipline to hold them  under 70...What I mean by that is ...if we are leading with just a few min left in the game by say 85 -68...instead of trying to get to 90 or stalling the game out...we need to keep them from getting 70...the mind set / discipline /focus to always be playing defense with a specific number in mind.

 

Let's look at the report card...

...................SLU......................Ford........................SLU.............................Ford

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B+.....................C+............................C-..................................B-

FG%...............B+.....................D-..............................A-.................................B+

3P%...............C+.....................D+............................C+.................................B-

FT%...............B-......................A-..................................................................

Reb...............A+..11th ITN......B...............................C+....................................C+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

Opp TOs...unfortunately this is back because we have fallen to F-  again in this category...17th WITH...at this level it can have an affect on the game...this stat will disappear when we move above F-.

UP...............Off....FG%....Def.....Rebs

Down.........Off.......none....Def....none

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......49th  all time D1 list

Assts/TO ratio...Collins...24th...up

Reb...Okoro...49th...unch

Blks...Okoro ...60th...dn

Off Reb...Okoro...29th ...dn

Dou Dou...Collins...43rd...dn

Ford

None

 

 Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....1/27...Thames....Questionable...undisclosed......unspecified issue makes it uncertain if he will be able to play on Tues

Ford...none

Keys to the game.... If you have been reading to this point ...you should know the key is to stop Q & M

WWN2D2W...Make the slash...46/35/75...Hold their  Quiz and Moore  to a combined 25pts  which should allow us to keep them around 65pts....Match them on TOs...Beat them on the boards by 4....Don't give them free pts by fouling Quiz...Beat their bench by 12 pts

Bottom line....Play like we have been playing and this game is ours.

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Bottom line....Play like we have been playing and this game is ours.
 

There it is. Play our game (even if we are playing in a broom closet this game) and take the win. No looking ahead to VCU, concentrate on taking care of business.

 

As always, compliments to the Wiz and his computer

laker119 likes this
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Just watched some video of Fordham’s win over GW. Moore is a beast, not sure how we guard him. Despite their weak non-con schedule, Fordham is good. Bills better be ready.

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11 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

Just watched some video of Fordham’s win over GW. Moore is a beast, not sure how we guard him. Despite their weak non-con schedule, Fordham is good. Bills better be ready.

Light work for THJ

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Scouting Fordham ----- much has been said about Fordham's weak OOC schedule and that is a fact.  But what it has done beside a gaudy record is instill in the players a sense of accomplishment and that victory is doable.  No matter the rest of the way, Fordham will finish with an overall winning record, likely it's best in years.  And by now, they knew they were playing in the PIG and here there are at a Top Four level.  The mind, besides being a terrible thing to waste, is really key in term sof confidence going forward.

Fordham is another two man team.  Wiz said it, Quisenbery and Moore.  Quisenberry os the two guard and a gunner.  Not maybe in the vein of James Bishop but close.  Quisenberry has hoisted 257 shots with over half coming from 3.  He shoots 39% and 34% respectively.  He's only 6'2" not overly elusive and can be guarded.

According to Coach Keith Urgo, Moore has figured out this is his final run.  The fifth year senior transferred back home from Georgia Tech and is playing with purpose and fun.  He is a quick, mobile 6'7" forward who can score from distance, put the ball on the floor, drive to the hoop, and reek havoc on the boards.  

The other three starters are usually Charlton, Richardson and Rose.  All three are relatively non-descript guards who play defense and will hit the occasional three to keep things honest.  Richardson, a local freshman from Jersey, has been playing the point to Quisenberry's shooting guard.  Zach Riley also comes off the bench and can take an dhit a three or two.

The big subs are Novitskyi and Tsimbila. Tsimbila leads the team in blocks and is comparable to Ojiako from Mason.  Novitskyi is a Euro big who can and will shoot from deep and did exert himself inside against Geedubya.  If Moore and Quisenberry are out, Fordham is hard pressed to score.  

Fordham is on a four game win streak in the A10 having won at La Salle, at Duquesne, at Bonaventure and home against Geedubya.  In three of those four games, they were down late in the second half and then just took off, holding the Dukes, Bonnies and Geedubya relatively scoreless down the closing stretches.  Outside of Moore, I like our matchups but we can't take them lightly.  We CANNOT look ahead to VCU.

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34 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

Just watched some video of Fordham’s win over GW. Moore is a beast, not sure how we guard him. Despite their weak non-con schedule, Fordham is good. Bills better be ready.

Davidson  held Moore to 6pts ...Quiz to 2 pts...total Fham pts...43

Here is our defensive report card vs Dav defensive card

Defense.......PPG.....FG%....3P%...Opp Reb

SLU...............C-........A-........C+.........C+

Dav...............C..........C-........B............F+

I think our defense is better than Dav and they stopped Fham cold....by shutting down  Quiz and Moore....Dav did it ..we can too.

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19 minutes ago, Billikenbooster said:

We are the people who support snd love the team. THEY are the opponents, the enemy.

I’ve never been a fan of saying we when We don’t put in the blood, sweat, tears, and hours to be a college and pro sports athlete

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Sweet Jesus, we're 7-1 and this message board is talking about Fordham like they are world beaters...Yes it's an A10 road game, yes they are all tough. But "I don't know how we guard Moore?" They have division 1 players we have division 1 players. It's not Holmes, Toppin, Weathers, etc.... Hargrove and Pickett have both shown an ability to play undersized 4 in a way that would make Double D proud.

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7 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:

Sweet Jesus, we're 7-1 and this message board is talking about Fordham like they are world beaters...Yes it's an A10 road game, yes they are all tough. But "I don't know how we guard Moore?" They have division 1 players we have division 1 players. It's not Holmes, Toppin, Weathers, etc.... Hargrove and Pickett have both shown an ability to play undersized 4 in a way that would make Double D proud.

Stop being a drama queen. It’s a bad look.

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7 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:

Sweet Jesus, we're 7-1 and this message board is talking about Fordham like they are world beaters...Yes it's an A10 road game, yes they are all tough. But "I don't know how we guard Moore?" They have division 1 players we have division 1 players. It's not Holmes, Toppin, Weathers, etc.... Hargrove and Pickett have both shown an ability to play undersized 4 in a way that would make Double D proud.

Lost by 14 at home to Davidson, lost by 24 at home to UD and even lost to rhody. 

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28 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:

Sweet Jesus, we're 7-1 and this message board is talking about Fordham like they are world beaters...Yes it's an A10 road game, yes they are all tough. But "I don't know how we guard Moore?" They have division 1 players we have division 1 players. It's not Holmes, Toppin, Weathers, etc.... Hargrove and Pickett have both shown an ability to play undersized 4 in a way that would make Double D proud.

SIUE. If THEY can lose to them, then THEY can lose to anyone. No such thing as a gimme in this league.

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My point was Moore presents a difficult problem for us. 6’7, athletic as heck, can score at all 3 levels. They also have another big who can score in the post. So, they have two bigs who can hurt us and we only play one.

Assuming we play a lot of man, I don’t see TJ or Pickett being able to stop Moore. Also, they’ll have 3200 fans in that crackerbox making it a real homecourt advantage. The portal has made Fordham a much-improved team and one that is trending up. 

I expect this game to be every bit as difficult as Davidson. Would love to see us get the half-game lead and then expand on it. It would be a little deflating to have it go the other way.

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