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The Bills over Loy-Chi by 7


The Wiz

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General Outlook

After the Aub game, the computer showed that the next 17 games would be vital to our post season chances.  It showed we would be favored in a majority of those games.  As we entered conference play it showed we would be favored in the first 11 games.  At 4-1 , we are fairly close to the conference projection but are not on track at this point. We still have to erase the stench of the SIU-e game.  We have 6 games left to fix the SIU-e game and get on track. We are currently  at B+,  where we started the season.  We need to get to A- after  the 6th game going forward (RI.. Feb 7th).  If we do , we will be in a good position to weather the end of the season and  put ourselves in the best position for post season play.  Right now the computer has us favored to win the next 6.  It won't be easy ...but the Bills can do it ..1 game at a time.

We picked up a little ground with the win over GW but not much because we won by only a few points over the spread.  We need to keep the ball rolling and beat the spreads. This game with Loy would be a good game to keep the momentum going. 

As for Yuri, on the official injury report he is listed as questionable...The computer is figuring on ...no Yuri to half Yuri (19 min). Hopefully, there will be no more illness spread.  In any case , the computer has toned down the spread i.e. made it more conservative. 

Game Outlook

Loy comes in with a poor report card.  Overall,  they are a C- team and fading.  Following the A-10 pattern,  Loy shows up with a decent starting line up. Not as good as the GW or GM starters but decent....  and continuing in the A-10 mode, there is a significant drop off after the first 5....When they bring in subs, that  is where we need to make hay  and either get the lead or extend the lead. Their main man is Alston....He is part of a trio ( along with Schweiger & Kennedy) that can shoot 3s.  And they can make 3s IF they are left alone.  If they are not left alone, in most cases they will pass on the shot.  Welch is there best shooter (FG%...74.7%)  but usually only takes 5 shots / gm...again if you bother him, he will pass on the shot...VCU left him alone and he wound up scoring 16...While Loy has a weak offense... the closer they get to the basket the better they are. 

We should win this game ...They have a weak defense...if we have good shooting..like last game...we can blow them out. But if we shoot below the slash , it could be a struggle.  Loy not very good  BUT they are just good enough to cause us trouble.

Report Card....

Three categories up ...none down. Things are brightening on the Card...We still need to fix the Def PPG. This would be a good game to work on that.

Let's look at the report card...

...................SLU......................Loy........................SLU............................Loy

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B+........................D-........................D+....................................D

FG%...............B-.......................B+.........................B+.....................................D-

3P%...............C-.......................C-.........................C+......................................D+

FT%...............B+........................D..................................................................

Reb...............A+...18th ITN........F+........................C......................................A-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....FG%%........Def.....3P%...Reb

Down.........Off.......none...........Def....none

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......60th  all time D1 list

Assists/TO ratio...Collins...29th...up

Reb...Okoro...74th...dn

Blks...Okoro ...53rd...up

Off Reb...Okoro...53rd ...dn

Dou Dou...Collins...59th...dn

3PM...Jimerson...80th...up

Loy

FG%...Welch...3rd

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills...

Collins...Questionable...Illness...uncertain if he will be ready to play on Wed

Loy...

Thomas...Questionable...he has missed the last 3 games with an undisclosed injury ...it is uncertain if he will be active for the Wed game.

Keys to the game ....Rebound...rebound ...rebound ...no extra  shots for them...our bench needs to dominate their bench....Make some shots especially 3s.

WWN2D2W...Make the slash...45/35/75...Hold their starters to  50 pts.  which should allow us to keep them under 70 pts....win the TO battle...Beat them on the boards by double digits....beat them on the bench by double digits.

Bottom line....Let's play Bills ball and Ramble away with a win.

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Loyola Chicago is 6-11, 0-5, has been a big disappointment in the A10 so far this season.  Jon Rothstein tweeted yesterday after Loyola got clobbered by 31 at St. Joe's:  "Different weight class than the MVC."  Valley apologists won't like that, but it is the truth.

Sagarin has SLU by 7.03.  Haslemetrics has SLU by 9.05.

NET:  SLU 90, still #2 in the A10, Loyola 283, worst in the A10;  Pomeroy:  SLU 80, Loyola 237.

This is a must win game for SLU.  

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4 hours ago, The Wiz said:

General Outlook

After the Aub game, the computer showed that the next 17 games would be vital to our post season chances.  It showed we would be favored in a majority of those games.  As we entered conference play it showed we would be favored in the first 11 games.  At 4-1 , we are fairly close to the conference projection but are not on track at this point. We still have to erase the stench of the SIU-e game.  We have 6 games left to fix the SIU-e game and get on track. We are currently  at B+,  where we started the season.  We need to get to A- after  the 6th game going forward (RI.. Feb 7th).  If we do , we will be in a good position to weather the end of the season and  put ourselves in the best position for post season play.  Right now the computer has us favored to win the next 6.  It won't be easy ...but the Bills can do it ..1 game at a time.

We picked up a little ground with the win over GW but not much because we won by only a few points over the spread.  We need to keep the ball rolling and beat the spreads. This game with Loy would be a good game to keep the momentum going. 

As for Yuri, on the official injury report he is listed as questionable...The computer is figuring on ...no Yuri to half Yuri (19 min). Hopefully, there will be no more illness spread.  In any case , the computer has toned down the spread i.e. made it more conservative. 

Game Outlook

Loy comes in with a poor report card.  Overall,  they are a C- team and fading.  Following the A-10 pattern,  Loy shows up with a decent starting line up. Not as good as the GW or GM starters but decent....  and continuing in the A-10 mode, there is a significant drop off after the first 5....When they bring in subs, that  is where we need to make hay  and either get the lead or extend the lead. Their main man is Alston....He is part of a trio ( along with Schweiger & Kennedy) that can shoot 3s.  And they can make 3s IF they are left alone.  If they are not left alone, in most cases they will pass on the shot.  Welch is there best shooter (FG%...74.7%)  but usually only takes 5 shots / gm...again if you bother him, he will pass on the shot...VCU left him alone and he wound up scoring 16...While Loy has a weak offense... the closer they get to the basket the better they are. 

We should win this game ...They have a weak defense...if we have good shooting..like last game...we can blow them out. But if we shoot below the slash , it could be a struggle.  Loy not very good  BUT they are just good enough to cause us trouble.

Report Card....

Three categories up ...none down. Things are brightening on the Card...We still need to fix the Def PPG. This would be a good game to work on that.

Let's look at the report card...

...................SLU......................Loy........................SLU............................Loy

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B+........................D-........................D+....................................D

FG%...............B-.......................B+.........................B+.....................................D-

3P%...............C-.......................C-.........................C+......................................D+

FT%...............B+........................D..................................................................

Reb...............A+...18th ITN........F+........................C......................................A-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....FG%%........Def.....3P%...Reb

Down.........Off.......none...........Def....none

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......60th  all time D1 list

Assists/TO ratio...Collins...29th...up

Reb...Okoro...74th...dn

Blks...Okoro ...53rd...up

Off Reb...Okoro...53rd ...dn

Dou Dou...Collins...59th...dn

3PM...Jimerson...80th...up

Loy

FG%...Welch...3rd

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills...

Collins...Questionable...Illness...uncertain if he will be ready to play on Wed

Loy...

Thomas...Questionable...he has missed the last 3 games with an undisclosed injury ...it is uncertain if he will be active for the Wed game.

Keys to the game ....Rebound...rebound ...rebound ...no extra  shots for them...our bench needs to dominate their bench....Make some shots especially 3s.

WWN2D2W...Make the slash...45/35/75...Hold their starters to  50 pts.  which should allow us to keep them under 70 pts....win the TO battle...Beat them on the boards by double digits....beat them on the bench by double digits.

Bottom line....Let's play Bills ball and Ramble away with a win.

According to the Ramblers message board, Thomas, who you list as questionable with an unknown injury, is not injured.  Apparently in the game against VCU last Tuesday night an assistant coach told him to go to the scorer’s table and check in, and he refused.  He then was not on the trip to Philadelphia for Saturday’s game against the Hawks but apparently Loyola has not disclosed his status.  He’s a Sophomore, used sparingly, so doesn’t seem like a big deal, but the Ramblers MBMs feel that Coach Valentine has lost the team, and that was before Saturday’s clobbering by the Hawks.  How does the computer factor in a coach “that has lost the team”?

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42 minutes ago, CenHudDude said:

According to the Ramblers message board, Thomas, who you list as questionable with an unknown injury, is not injured.  Apparently in the game against VCU last Tuesday night an assistant coach told him to go to the scorer’s table and check in, and he refused.  He then was not on the trip to Philadelphia for Saturday’s game against the Hawks but apparently Loyola has not disclosed his status.  He’s a Sophomore, used sparingly, so doesn’t seem like a big deal, but the Ramblers MBMs feel that Coach Valentine has lost the team, and that was before Saturday’s clobbering by the Hawks.  How does the computer factor in a coach “that has lost the team”?

As for the injury to Thomas...Your story may be correct with the player and Coach issues but the school is reporting it as an undisclosed injury.

On your question "how does the computer factor in a Coach losing the team"....I think the computer summarized it well in the game outlook section when it stated...Overall,  they are a C- team and fading.  The key word is fading.  They are not just a bad team , they are not just losing but they are trending  down quickly.  They have lost 6 in a row ...this all culminated  in a loss yesterday to St. J ( a weak team itself)  by 31 pts.  You don't have to be a computer to figure out something is seriously wrong. 

How does the computer factor it in ?  By using the numbers...whatever the cause is ,  it is definitely showing up in the numbers.  

Hopefully The Bills can take advantage of this team by starting off strong and putting them away early.  The worst thing that could happen is for the Bills to make it a close game into the 2nd half.

Hit some shots ...grab some rebounds...open up some distance and look for the Rambler in your rear view mirror.

 

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17 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

As for the injury to Thomas...Your story may be correct with the player and Coach issues but the school is reporting it as an undisclosed injury.

On your question "how does the computer factor in a Coach losing the team"....I think the computer summarized it well in the game outlook section when it stated...Overall,  they are a C- team and fading.  The key word is fading.  They are not just a bad team , they are not just losing but they are trending  down quickly.  They have lost 6 in a row ...this all culminated  in a loss yesterday to St. J ( a weak team itself)  by 31 pts.  You don't have to be a computer to figure out something is seriously wrong. 

How does the computer factor it in ?  By using the numbers...whatever the cause is ,  it is definitely showing up in the numbers.  

Hopefully The Bills can take advantage of this team by starting off strong and putting them away early.  The worst thing that could happen is for the Bills to make it a close game into the 2nd half.

Hit some shots ...grab some rebounds...open up some distance and look for the Rambler in your rear view mirror.

 

The Billikens should be like sharks scenting chum in the water reading this. Take them down big

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11 hours ago, The Wiz said:

As for the injury to Thomas...Your story may be correct with the player and Coach issues but the school is reporting it as an undisclosed injury.

On your question "how does the computer factor in a Coach losing the team"....I think the computer summarized it well in the game outlook section when it stated...Overall,  they are a C- team and fading.  The key word is fading.  They are not just a bad team , they are not just losing but they are trending  down quickly.  They have lost 6 in a row ...this all culminated  in a loss yesterday to St. J ( a weak team itself)  by 31 pts.  You don't have to be a computer to figure out something is seriously wrong. 

How does the computer factor it in ?  By using the numbers...whatever the cause is ,  it is definitely showing up in the numbers.  

Hopefully The Bills can take advantage of this team by starting off strong and putting them away early.  The worst thing that could happen is for the Bills to make it a close game into the 2nd half.

Hit some shots ...grab some rebounds...open up some distance and look for the Rambler in your rear view mirror.

 

Thanks as always Wiz.

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18 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

"Different weight class than the MVC."  Valley apologists won't like that, but it is the truth.

Not in this case. 

Loyola was living off a coach and two recruiting classes. Think of Drew Valentine as Loyola's Jim Crews. He was able to squeak out another tournament appearance with Porter's guys and culture, but he has lost this team. There isn't much to believe that he will turn things around as a head coach.

It remains to be seen how long they stick with their Crews. You can chalk them up for the bottom of the A10 for the foreseeable future. 

SLU should win this by 10+

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24 minutes ago, JMM28 said:

SLU should win this by 10+

Agree.  This is a bad team.  Yes, they had their signature win against Clemson (a Q1 win- one of three for the conference), but it has been downhill since then. They score 67.6 ppg and give up 72.8 ppg.  They are in the bottom third of the A10 in 3's and also in giving up 3's.  They are 14th (of 15) in team rebounds.  SLU is first in rebounds with a 7.7 delta over Loyola. 

They have lost all five A10 games by 10, 23, 11, 14 and 31 points. 

Double digit win with or without Collins. 

SLUMedBilliken15 likes this
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7 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

As poor as the A10 has been this season, A10 is still > MVC. 
Conference NET:  A10 12, MVC 14;  Conference RPI: A10 11, MVC 14;  Sagarin: A10 11, MVC 12.

Jon Rothstein’s statement is correct, as evidenced by the objective facts. 

 

 

 

Objective facts don’t always stop people from posting the opposite on here, but I applaud you for trying.

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21 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

As poor as the A10 has been this season, A10 is still > MVC. 
Conference NET:  A10 12, MVC 14;  Conference RPI: A10 11, MVC 14;  Sagarin: A10 11, MVC 12.

Jon Rothstein’s statement is correct, as evidenced by the objective facts. 

 

 

 

I am not doubting that. But Rothstein using that as the reason Loyola got piss pounded is just inaccurate. My point is that Loyola is a poor program that was propped up by a once in a generation recruit and a coach that is no longer there. It has nothing to do with 'weight class'. They'd be at the bottom of any mid major conference. 

SLU by 13+

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27 minutes ago, JMM28 said:

I am not doubting that. But Rothstein using that as the reason Loyola got piss pounded is just inaccurate. My point is that Loyola is a poor program that was propped up by a once in a generation recruit and a coach that is no longer there. It has nothing to do with 'weight class'. They'd be at the bottom of any mid major conference. 

SLU by 13+

Loyola currently starts 3 players who played there for Porter Moser: Tom Welch, Braden Norris and Marquise Kennedy. Loyola has a 4th player in its top 10, Jacob Huston, who also played there under Moser. As such, Loyola is not at Crews on his own stage. Whether the current coach has lost the team is another opinion. 
 

Loyola went to the Final 4 in ‘18, the Sweet ‘16 in ‘21, both with Porter Moser at the helm. Loyola was 25-8, 13-5 MVC, MVC Tourney Champs and In the NCAA Tourney last season, ‘22, under current Coach Drew Valentine. 
 

Loyola, with 4 Moser players, 3 of them starting, has found tough sledding in the A10, 6-11, 0-5. Jon Rothstein is spot on correct.

Still I am expecting a tough game Wed. Night, will be happy to get out of there with a Win, ecstatic to beat the spread. 
 

 

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25 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Loyola currently starts 3 players who played there for Porter Moser: Tom Welch, Braden Norris and Marquise Kennedy. Loyola has a 4th player in its top 10, Jacob Huston, who also played there under Moser. As such, Loyola is not at Crews on his own stage. Whether the current coach has lost the team is another opinion. 
 

Loyola went to the Final 4 in ‘18, the Sweet ‘16 in ‘21, both with Porter Moser at the helm. Loyola was 25-8, 13-5 MVC, MVC Tourney Champs and In the NCAA Tourney last season, ‘22, under current Coach Drew Valentine. 
 

Loyola, with 4 Moser players, 3 of them starting, has found tough sledding in the A10, 6-11, 0-5. Jon Rothstein is spot on correct.

Still I am expecting a tough game Wed. Night, will be happy to get out of there with a Win, ecstatic to beat the spread. 
 

 

Mrs. Valentine, I am sorry but your son isn't very good at his job. Neither was your other son, Denzel. This is a weird hill for you to die on. 

Loyola is a bad basketball team no matter what conference they are in. They are ranked 230th offensively and 244th defensively. That has nothing to do with the conference. It has everything to do with them being a bad basketball team. They are poorly coached and lack talent. 

Just like Jim Crews, Drew Valentine didn't refill the roster with comparable talent that Moser was landing. He also isn't nearly as good of a coach. Crews > Valentine. 

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1 hour ago, Taj79 said:

@JMM28Krutwig?!?!  For real?  Once in a generation?  That seems quite generous.  Larry Hughes?  Sure.  Jordan Goodwin?  Maybe, close.  Cameron Krutwig?  Japanese and Phillipino pro basketball player now.

Krutwig sounds like a Harry Potter character.  Maybe a once in a generation wizard, not basketball player 

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