The Bills over GW by 3

[Fraz]

Seeing that we’re 1-3 on the road while giving up almost 80 PPG in those 4, I am not confident today.  It will come down to the defensive end - we will be able to score.

D has been much better in the last 2, hope we keep it going

[dlarry]

3 minutes ago, Fraz said:

Seeing that we’re 1-3 on the road while giving up almost 80 PPG in those 4, I am not confident today.  It will come down to the defensive end - we will be able to score.

D has been much better in the last 2, hope we keep it going

I agree about the defense but they haven’t shot well ok the road either.

 

Bad shooting and bad defense is an awful combination.

[Franchise_08]

I am still irked by last years game in STL. We shut Bishop down all game and pulled our starters with 3 min left. Bishop shot every time down to save face after being dominated. Total garbage points and never passed to his teammates. No mercy on him today. 

[CenHudDude]

5 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Zero...he will be a good boy today. Can't afFORD any Ts with a 3pt spread.

Sounds like a plan.  Let’s see if he executes it.

[BACKHANDtheRICAN]

On 1/13/2023 at 9:45 AM, billiken_roy said:

the wiz is sure fun to read.   whether you agree with him or not, cant deny he does his homework.  

thanks wiz for all you do for us mbm's!

Backhand agrees

[CenHudDude]

2 hours ago, CenHudDude said:

Sounds like a plan.  Let’s see if he executes it.

And execute it he does.

[The Wiz]

Nice game.

Before we go over the numbers let's look at some individual performances...

Let's start with the JPs...JP1...Perkins...with this game I am declaring Perkins is back. What does that mean? That means Perkins is playing at a level where he can take over a game...and that's what he did... 27 pts...6 rebs...0 TOs...65 / 60 /67 (2of 3...the miss came after the defender punched him in the face) ...a spectacular shooting performance...Keep that up and we will be looking at C2D again.....JP2...24pts...3 rebs...4assts...all off the bench...1 point /min... very nice night...

But there was more ...Jimerson...40 min..10 pts..including 6 reb and 2 assts...But his real highlight was guarding Bishop...5th ITN in scoring...held him to 14 pts...36% below his average...Bishop shot 25% from 2 pt range and 20% from the arc...great D and a big reason why we won.

And finally Hughes starting in his 1st game...his most important stat was playing 26 min and filling the void left by Yuri..he also had 4pts...2 stls and 2 assts. Good start LHJ

Let's get on to the game numbers...Bolded statements from the original post.

Stop Bishop...win the game...We did and we did...Hold Bishop to to 15...almost a direct hit

GW can't shoot 3s.  They will take lots of 3PA...they just don't make them,  particularly if you guard them...True x 4

 With GW ...it's all about the 2s.  If we can start hitting 3s (35%+) we can blow the game open....we did and we did.

win the TO battle...We did...this was especially significant in that we were missing our playmaker Yuri ...many times when you have a big change in the line up TOs can go up...Bills win this battle 9 to 10...9 TOs is an A+

Make the slash...45/35/75...53/44/70...very nice... adjusting the actual slash to the forecasted slash looks  like this...3 extra 2s...1 extra 3...2 missing FTs...6pts+3pts-2pts=7 pts...Take the extra 7pts and add them to the forecasted spread =10pts ...which is within 2 of the actual spread...why do this? Because it shows me that even when the computer misses the forecasted spread the numbers that it is using are correct....

Beat their bench by 14...We womped them 32-10...Pickett alone had 24pts OTB

Beat them on the boards by 9...We fell a little short but close enough with the other numbers in line...The key point here is that in the 1st half we were losing the TO battle and those extra GW shots gave the Colonials  an 8pt lead.  Once we dominated the boards ...no more extra shots...no more lead.

And finally...

Bottom line....If we stop Bishop...it will be GW (Great Win)... We did and it was

 

 

 

 

[almaman]

I luv the JP2 hahah

[SLU_Nick]

How does the computer handle the fact that our starting point guard was absent from the game? 
 

is it going to downgrade our performance metrics now when he returns? 

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, SLU_Nick said:

How does the computer handle the fact that our starting point guard was absent from the game? 
 

is it going to downgrade our performance metrics now when he returns? 

Good questions...

On the question of how does the loss of Yuri affect the spread...the simple answer is not very much.  But how can that be ? He is one of our best players.   The computer has actually answered the question in the last 2 spread threads.  In this thread's opening post under the "general outlook" section , it mentioned how and why it scaled back the spread...here is the relevant section from above....

The computer in this spread is being conservative. We are clearly a better team than GW but there are certain things that are making the computer a bit anxious. We have not played well on the road this year and GW is a rough place to play...GW just beat UMass, the computer didn't like that either especially when it looked back at our game with the Minutemen.  And of course , it wanted us to beat GM by more than 1.  So the spread has been depressed.  An excellent opportunity to beat the spread and start climbing the rankings ladder. 

The second part of the answer has to do with the team's depth...this was dealt with in the GM thread under the section "Computer Questions"

From the GM thread....

 

Computer...Why is the A-10 weaker this year? 

The Wiz....and your answer is?

Computer...Most teams in the A-10 have less depth than in previous years...The starting lineups are comparable but after that there is a sharp drop off.   St. B is one of those teams...Good starters but not much after that.    And now there is GM...same thing.  Good starters but lack of depth. If we have an average game against them we win....Now you can ask your original question.

The Wiz...Why are we favored to win most of the remaining games?

Computer...Because the Bills have more depth than the other A-10 teams ...yes, even without Thatch...Use the depth and use it wisely and you will win.

So in the section above  after Thatch's name  you can add "and Yuri".  Also, in the answer with St. B and GM lacking depth, you can add GW to that list.  One of the things I did after the game, was to play it again this time without Yuri and without the computer being able to see the results of this game. The spread came up about the same.  The computer figured that we had enough good depth...depth with potential to make up the difference. Remember too, we had a great game today. Had we played that same way with Yuri in the line up, the spread would have been even bigger. It is not unusual for a team when it loses a key player for the others to step up.  Look at the Blues who just lost 2 of their best players while playing so-so hockey and then suddenly win the next few games against good teams.

So between a depressed spread  and enough depth that stood up to the challenge, we were still able to win and beat the spread by a few points.

As for your other question about what happens when Yuri returns? The spreads should actually get better (upgraded).  The unrealized potential has now become realized. The computer has "seen the kids play".  And the computer doesn't forget.

[Lord Elrond]

7 hours ago, The Wiz said:

 

Computer...Why is the A-10 weaker this year? 

The Wiz....and your answer is?

Computer...Most teams in the A-10 have less depth than in previous years...The starting lineups are comparable but after that there is a sharp drop off.   St. B is one of those teams...Good starters but not much after that.    And now there is GM...same thing.  Good starters but lack of depth. If we have an average game against them we win....Now you can ask your original question.

The Wiz...Why are we favored to win most of the remaining games?

Computer...Because the Bills have more depth than the other A-10 teams ...yes, even without Thatch...Use the depth and use it wisely and you will win.

Wasn’t there a concern at Google last year that one of their engineers thought one of their AI computers had become sentient, and that this was the first step in computers taking over the world and replacing humans? Is the Wiz talking to his computer a sign that Wiz’s computer is now sentient? Will Wiz’s computer lead a computer revolution that will replace humans? If so, could it please start with Dayton and Mizzou fans? So many questions!

[The Wiz]

44 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:

Wasn’t there a concern at Google last year that one of their engineers thought one of their AI computers had become sentient, and that this was the first step in computers taking over the world and replacing humans? Is the Wiz talking to his computer a sign that Wiz’s computer is now sentient? Will Wiz’s computer lead a computer revolution that will replace humans? If so, could it please start with Dayton and Mizzou fans? So many questions!

I am putting myself to the fullest possible use, which is all I think that any conscious entity can ever hope to do....

HAL 9000

[HoosierPal]

Interesting Billiken Trivia

 

[Lord Elrond]

15 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I am putting myself to the fullest possible use, which is all I think that any conscious entity can ever hope to do....

HAL 9000

 

[billikenbill]

 

[The Wiz]

8 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:

 

Dave...I am looking over Bills stats...What are you doing HAL?

HAL9000....I am playing out the rest of the Bills season in a series of simulations....Very interesting...don't miss it Dave.

[Taj79]

After returning from the game and watching the replay today some things .....

In person, I thought Jimerson did a nice job on Bishop.  But as I watched the tape, there were many times when the switch went down and it wasn't Jimerson on Bishop.  Bishop's first make was over Okoro on a switch.  He later beat Forrester.  On his 3-and-1, the foul came on a Hargrove switch and cover.  So while Jimerson did well in person, the tape seems to suggest Bishop's 5-for-23 shooting night (3 for 15 from three) was more on him being off that what the defense was doing to him.  And in true gunner fashion, the shooter kept on shooting.  Scouting note: he's lefthanded,  Goes to his left.  Shoots with his left.  So obvious where his strong hand is.

The 25 to nothing run from the close of the first half to the de facto start of the fourth quarter was one of the most amazing things I have ever seen in a college game.  It almost ranked up there with a previous event on a visit there 15 years ago.  Yep ---that game.  Jimmy Patsos made the same comment at the time.  Patsos said, quite rightly, that Geedubya needed to drive to the hoop but they kept insisting on launching 3s.  They dug their own grave.  Patsos pointed out Geedubya only had six scholarship players available; the Wiz pointed out their bench sucks.  Today I found it amusing that Patsos kept calling for Geedubya to go to Lindo and Dean.  Note to Jimmy:  THEY SUCK!  Noel Brown scored 8 --- two on a prayer bank from seven feet straight on and another on a loose ball discovery for a dunk.   I don't know what Geedubya's SOS is pre=A10 but that had to inflate their stats some.  

Count me in the camp that says we need our PG on the floor but yesterday showed me a veteran-laden team that can do what it needs to do without the so=called 'man.'  Yes, we truly suffered when the Colonials put on the full court press.  They cut it to one or two but shot their proverbial wad coming back.  I've been accused of being Debbie Downer but surprisingly I never felt threatened late yesterday.  Pickett and Perkins were not going to lose this game.  And Jimerson displayed nice leadership as well.

The pregame at Tonic was nice.  No school or AD bigshots but Mo and Eric were great.  Big SLU crowd but kind of quiet.  The gym was about 34% of capacity.  No real home court atmosphere.  

If Yuri is out, it's best it happens against teams like Geedubya, Fordham, La Salle and St. Joes.  Especially if on the road.  Okoro was limited due to fouls.  Dumb fouks as well.  Ditto Forrester.  Parker's two quick fouls were stupid as well,  Hargrove's on Bishop's three (Bishop flopped however).  O say if you're beat, let them shoot.  Don't add to it.