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The Bills over GM by 7


The Wiz

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4 hours ago, The Wiz said:

After the SIU-e game , Perkins was questionable for the next 2 games with an ankle injury...he played limited minutes in those 2 games...In the St. B game he was no longer listed on the injury report and played more minutes but not a full Perkins game.  He is not now on the injury list but may not be at 100%.

Good reminder, Wiz, forgot about that injury already. Give Perk time to heal & become a hot hand again.

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Team Rankings has SLU winning be 6 pts, again very close to the Wiz's model. They give us 2 stars of confidence. The pregame stats are basically the same that we have had in recent games. We are over GW in 5 out of 8 offense categories, they are over us in 4 out of seven defense categories. This is a home game and we can and should win it, but it will probably be a tough game to win.

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Other Metrics and the Line for tonight's game:

Sagarin:  SLU by 6;  Haslametrics SLU by 5.

cbssports.com:  SLU -6.5, o144;  ESPN:  SLU -6.5.

SLU Ratings:  RPI 54, best in the A10;  Sagarin 74;  Pomeroy 76;  Haslametrics 90;  NET 94 (#2 in the A10 behind 55 Dayton).

NET (the metric currently used by the NCAA) vs. RPI (the metric formerly used by the NCAA):  NET results in 4 NCAA At Large Bids transferred to the Power 5 + 1 from the Intermediates, giving the Power 5 + 1 30 of the 36 NCAA At Large Bids, 83% of the At Large Bids. The A10 is Juan Bid under both ratings.  22 of the 32 Conferences are one bid leagues.

As of '22, an NCAA Tourney Unit was estimated to be worth $338,887.

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The A10 is #12 in Conference NET.  

The Top 15 in Conference NET are: 

1- Big 12;  2- Big Ten;  3- SEC;  4- Big East;  5- Mountain West;  6- Pac-12;  7- ACC;  8- WCC;  9- American Athletic (AAC);  10- C-USA;  11- WAC;  12- A10;  13- Sun Belt;  14- Missouri Valley (MVC);  15- Ivy.

The Mountain West is having a great season, with 6 teams in the Top 52 per the NET.

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26 minutes ago, White Pelican said:

Start Cisse, see what happens.

i dont know about starting Cisse, but we could start Jake along with okoro and then cisse spells both of them.  

that said, i have always believed we shouldnt be the ones to react to mismatches.  let's not forget if we play the same lineup one of there bigs will have to guard one of our wings who has more ball skills and more speed.   my guess is that is what ford will start out with.   the key will be if whomever the geo mason big is guarding on the wing can make that big come out of the lane.   i.e. make some shots.   i would assume that will be pickett or hargrove or parker.   regardless this could an interesting aspect of the game.   

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1 minute ago, billiken_roy said:

i dont know about starting Cisse, but we could start Jake along with okoro and then cisse spells both of them.  

that said, i have always believed we shouldnt be the ones to react to mismatches.  let's not forget if we play the same lineup one of there bigs will have to guard one of our wings who has more ball skills and more speed.   my guess is that is what ford will start out with.   the key will be if whomever the geo mason big is guarding on the wing can make that big come out of the lane.   i.e. make some shots.   i would assume that will be pickett or hargrove or parker.   regardless this could an interesting aspect of the game.   

I'm with you Roy. I'm thinking we start Hargrove and let him try to get hot from deep. He's got the athleticism to make it worth a shot. 

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speaking of hargrove and his depression story, this is my opinion and the only medical backup i got is i do stay at a holiday inn express whenever i spend the night in Terre Haute Indiana, but imo the lost weight which one can see when looking at hargrove now, is a definite factor in his new found success on the basketball court.   i had remarked for over a year he didnt look as fast and quick any longer and you could see he was thicker (not fatter just thicker which could have been strength).   i think he resembles on the floor now the freshman version of hargrove now again.   so i am also encouraged by his recent minutes.   

btw, all the more reason we need to play faster.   he'll run the floor.  and a hargrove finish if nothing else is usually pretty entertaining. 

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2 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

George Mason starts Oduro, a Forward at 6’9” and Ojiako, a Center at 6’10”.

Who guards Oduro?

Okuro  and Forrester guard Oduro... As I mentioned in the opening post of this thread, the ones to worry about are Oduro, Bailey, Cooper and Polite...keep those 4 under control and we win.  Ojaako only plays 12 min/gm.  He started the last 2 games against a weak Loy/Chi and St. B. only because Gaines was hurt.   He played 12 min in each of the games and scored zero pts in each one.  

The Bills need to keep their eye on the ball  i.e. Oduro , Bailey, Cooper and Polite...hold them to 44 pts and we win.

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5 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Okuro  and Forrester guard Oduro... As I mentioned in the opening post of this thread, the ones to worry about are Oduro, Bailey, Cooper and Polite...keep those 4 under control and we win.  Ojaako only plays 12 min/gm.  He started the last 2 games against a weak Loy/Chi and St. B. only because Gaines was hurt.   He played 12 min in each of the games and scored zero pts in each one.  

The Bills need to keep their eye on the ball  i.e. Oduro , Bailey, Cooper and Polite...hold them to 44 pts and we win.

I saw the stream of Oduro at 6’9” having a huge game vs. SLU @Mason last season, then saw him play in the A10 Tourney in DC. He is quite a player, more a forward that can play away from and facing the basket than a center. 

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10 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

I saw the stream of Oduro having a huge game vs. SLU @Mason last season, then saw him play in the A10 Tourney in DC. He is quite a player, more a forward that can play away from and facing the basket than a center. 

You know who had a bigger game that day? Yuri Collins. 

Oduro had 32P/6R/3B/2S/4TO 

Yuri had 35P/13A/5R/5S/3TO, was 10/10 from the free throw line, and of course had the 2OT game-winning buzzer beater. 

 

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On 1/10/2023 at 9:04 AM, wgstl said:

That's a good question.  He looked like 2021 Perkins in that game.  

I'll die on this hill/beating the horse.  IF we were to win in Brooklyn, its because Okoro and perkins to some degree are clicking. No matter the struggle with them, they need minutes. 

Spot on. Without at least Okoro and GJim playing to the levels they’ve played in the past we have no chance to win the A10 tourney. Without Perkins playing well we may have a slight chance, get hot, go on a run. With Perkins, I think we have a good chance. We have to play all 3 and find a way to help them find their game. 
 

If anyone on here was told before the season Perkins would still be struggling, GJim would be averaging 13 ppg on 40/35 shooting percentages and Okoro would be at 6.3 ppg. No one would say we could still win the A10. Probably not even top 4 or 5. 

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What a game...to those who left early...you miss it.

Bolded statements from up above

Let's start with the slash...

45/35/75...actual slash...43/39/67...Close enough to win...in order to make the slash , we needed 2 more 2s and 2 more FT...for an additional 6 pts...6+1 (1pt win)= 7pts...funny how that works out.

 keep them under 70 pts...62pts...this was big...great D

Bailey and Cooper are their outside guys ....Bailey made his shots but only went 2-4 from the arc...because Bailey couldn't get many shots off ...Cooper had to shoot...  and shoot he did.. 1-7...More D

 this game will be decided at the arc on both sides of the court ...Make some 3s , stop some 3s...beat them...we did (39%) , we did (32%) and we did...good shooting and 3P D.

win the TO battle...we did and this turned out to be another key to the game....while we lost the reb battle we made up for it with TOs...12-17...Opp TOs....F-...15th WITN... the key number is the 17...we usually only force 10/gm...so an extra 7 was excellent...it shows we were bothering them....more good D

 the ones to worry about are Oduro, Bailey, Cooper and Polite...keep those 4 under control and we win.... We did not shut down Oduro...but because we shut down the other 3...29pts for the 3 of them ...we win

Good starters but lack of depth....Yet, another key to the game...Let's look at what  lack of depth did to GM...Bench pts...SLU...13...GM  one...I spelled it out so you knew it wasn't a typo.

Summary of the final 2 minutes of the game...We ain't Mason around with them anymore....In other words, we had the will to win...keep that going and good things will happen.

 

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8 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

SLU’s NET also worsened despite winning, from 94 to 95. 
That is both patently and latently absurd. 

As I have pointed out numerous times....If you want to move up in the NET or for that matter, anybody's rankings, you need to exceed the spread.  If you match the spread, you move sideways...if you win but fall short of the spread, you can go down slightly.  Again these are general parameters.  In the end it's all about the numbers. Not just our numbers but the other 362 teams  and what and how they did too.  

In this case , the NET was generous...94 to 95  is essentially the same... In my system,  we stayed unchanged . The computer felt that GM was a worthy opponent and kept us the same.  While the computer eased up a bit after this game, looking at the preliminary data for the GW game, it may be a bit more harsh when we play the Colonials. It will be a good chance to prove our worth  i.e. beat the spread and move up some in the rankings.

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1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

As I have pointed out numerous times....If you want to move up in the NET or for that matter, anybody's rankings, you need to exceed the spread.  If you match the spread, you move sideways...if you win but fall short of the spread, you can go down slightly.  Again these are general parameters.  In the end it's all about the numbers. Not just our numbers but the other 362 teams  and what and how they did too.  

In this case , the NET was generous...94 to 95  is essentially the same... In my system,  we stayed unchanged . The computer felt that GM was a worthy opponent and kept us the same.  While the computer eased up a bit after this game, looking at the preliminary data for the GW game, it may be a bit more harsh when we play the Colonials. It will be a good chance to prove our worth  i.e. beat the spread and move up some in the rankings.

The NET also doesn’t seem to reward SOS at all. It pushes teams to schedule cream puffs and beat up on them.

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2 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:

The NET also doesn’t seem to reward SOS at all. It pushes teams to schedule cream puffs and beat up on them.

Yep.  Play as many teams as you can in the 150-250 range at home and win by more than 10 and you're Golden. 

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1 minute ago, dennis_w said:

The Mizzou schedule should be the template going forward, play the worst teams you can and go undefeated going into conference play

Exactly. Our problem this year was playing a schedule maximized for RPI. The NET doesn’t work that way

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