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The Bills over GM by 7


The Wiz

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General Outlook

Great game against St. B.  If you want to see the post game analysis then check out the St. B spread thread... about 5 posts up from the bottom of page 1.  What I would like to discuss in this section is the impact of the St. B game and the next few games and then we will go on to the GM game.

The good news is we are back at B+.  Does that mean we should be dancing in the streets? (or Dancing anywhere else). No or at least not yet.  In simple terms,  the St. B game undid the damage of the UMass game. Without going into the algorithms of the computer, we are in the same spot  we were in before the UMass game...a shaky B+ team that can get back into the swing of things or fade. We failed the first test but now have a second and better chance to move forward as George Mason is more of a test than UMass was.  UMass was a B- team at the time and GM is currently a B team.  

Undoing the damage of the UMass game is only part of the problem. We now have to undo the damage of the SIU-e game. That will not be fixed by a win over GM .  It will solidify us as a B+ team (generally a 1/3 C2D).  It may take 2 or 3 wins to get us back to C2D (at least 50% C2D).  Of course, we can move along faster if we not only win but continue to exceed the spread thread forecasts.

Moving forward...play like we did against St. B every game and the numbers will take care of themselves.

Computer questions

Everybody seems to be very focused on the what....What has gone wrong this season ...What do we need to do to turn things around...etc.  So I decided to ask the computer a why question.

The Wiz...Why are you favoring us in most of the remaining games?

Computer...Wrong question...

The Wiz ...What is the right question? 

Computer...Why is the A-10 weaker this year? 

The Wiz....and your answer is?

Computer...Most teams in the A-10 have less depth than in previous years...The starting lineups are comparable but after that there is a sharp drop off.   St. B is one of those teams...Good starters but not much after that.    And now there is GM...same thing.  Good starters but lack of depth. If we have an average game against them we win....Now you can ask your original question.

The Wiz...Why are we favored to win most of the remaining games?

Computer...Because the Bills have more depth than the other A-10 teams ...yes, even without Thatch...Use the depth and use it wisely and you will win.

I think now we are ready to move onto the upcoming  game.  

Game Outlook

There are a lot of similarities between St. B and GM . As mentioned above after the starters there isn't much there.  In the case of St. B they had 4 good players.  Same with GM...4 good starters...their 4 are  better than the St. B four.  Bailey and Cooper are their outside guys with Bailey at 65th ITN in 3P%.  On the inside you have Odura and Polite with Odura ranked 26th ITN in Dou Dou.   We need to take care of Bailey like we did Banks in the St. B game.  The defenses are the same too...OK defenses whose strongest points are 3P defense. The Bills have shown they can shoot against a good 3P defense ...they need to do it again.

Report Card....

A better looking report card with 5 categories in the up phase and none in the down phase. Our 2 weak areas...3P shooting and def PPG both improved after the last game....the computer feels if we can get those areas up to C and keep the other grades the same , we will not only be favored in the remaining games but will win the remaining games...in Def PPG that means giving up less than 70 pts /game and in 3P% shooting at least 35%/game...both very doable...

Let's look at the report card...

...................SLU......................GM........................SLU............................GM

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B+........................C.........................D+....................................B-

FG%...............C+.......................B+.......................A-......................................B-

3P%...............D+.......................B+.........................C......................................A

FT%...............A-........................F..................................................................

Reb...............A+...14th ITN........B-........................C......................................B

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....3P%...FT%........Def.....PPG...3P%...Reb

Down.........Off.............none...........Def.......none

Opp TOs....F-...15th WITN...I have added this stat for now...It usually not a major variable but in this case it is so low it is having an effect on games. I will drop it when we move above F-.

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......66th  all time D1 list

Assists/TO ratio...Collins...42nd

Reb...Okoro...57th...dn

Blks...Okoro ...54th...dn

Off Reb...Okoro...32nd ...dn

Dou Dou...Collins...42nd...up

3PM...Jimerson...94th...up

GM

Dou Dou...Oduro...26th

3P%...Bailey...65th

 

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills...

No new injuries or illness to report

GM...

Gaines...Questionable...he has missed the last 2 games with a wrist injury ...it is uncertain if he will be active for the Wed game.

Keys to the game ....Like the last game,  this game will be decided at the arc on both sides of the court ...Make some 3s , stop some 3s...beat them on  the boards.

WWN2D2W...Make the slash...45/35/75...Hold their top 4 scorers to  44 pts. which should allow us to keep them under 70 pts....win the TO battle...Beat them on the boards by 4.

Bottom line....Make some shots ..play some D ...win the game....We ain't Mason around with them anymore.

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The Wiz said “… Use the depth and use it wisely and you will win.”

With the development of LHJ and Parker’s emergence over the last two games, even with the loss of Fred, we have a solid 9-man rotation. With the exception of Yuri who has to play 36-39 mpg, you pretty much have interchangeable parts among the other 8 players.

It’s been clear for awhile that Okoro and Forrester should be splitting mins. in the 18-22 range either way. Now, you can do the same with Pickett and TJ at the 4, Perkins and Parker at the 3, and Hughes and Jimerson at the 2. 

This will keep players fresher, help avoid foul trouble, and offer us the potential of dominating the later stages of the game. One other point about Hughes is that he appears to be an excellent on ball defender. In addition, he has the quickness to help and recover on post entry passes. Against SBU, he’d leave his man after the post pass, make an attempt to strip it, then recover.

I realize coach said after the game that they had decided to start doubling the post, but Hughes showed the quickness to do it effectively.

I’m ready to see us use our depth in waves and sink the opposition.

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The comment about Hugheses Defense is spot on. When he was in the game, I watched him, especially on defense. To my observation, the man he guarded, didn’t score basket until the last couple of minutes of the game. When the ball was on the other side of the court, he will drop off his man and help out in the lane. When the ball came on top, he was back on this man like Lou.

 

The comment about Hughes’ Defense is spot on. When he was in the game, I watched him closely, especially on defense. To my observation, the man he guarded didn’t score basket until the last couple of minutes of the game. When the ball was on the other side of the court, he will drop off his man and help out in the lane. When the ball came on top, he was back on his man like glue.

Videos of his defense should be shared with Jimerson. Gibby me should be made to watch this video three times a day.

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Haven't been following GMU much, and by much I mean at all.  Just looked to see how Justyn Fernandez is doing.. not great.  Figured being there half of last season would help get him up to speed faster. 

Nervous about what Bailey and Cooper will do from deep against us.  Bailey shooting almost 50% from 3(!)

Their back up big has cooled off a ton.  Hasn't scored, or even attempted a shot in the last 2 games. 

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Our problem this season has been not using the depth of the bench. We have continued doing the same thing we do with the same players and have watched as our lead disappeared at the end of the game and our losing multiple games in the last few minutes, games we should have won. I am not making this up, we all watched as the loss developed right in front of our eyes. Perkins is still not functional in all games, and Jimerson still has problems scoring. Yuri is still walking the ball across the court in the final minutes of a game and making lots of TOs, even when we win the games. I am very glad that we are (forced to) use Hargrove, Hughes, and Parker for more minutes. Their appearance in court may get us ahead after all the prior losses, but so far this is only a hope, not a reality.

It is true that A10 is worse and has less depth this year than it has in the past. I thank Thatch, Perkins, Jimerson and all the others for their efforts so far, and hope the issues have been solved, but I just do not believe they have been solved. I think we patched the issues over for the game against St. Bona and won the game. Can we do the same against Dayton, VCU, and Richmond? I think the very best we can expect for this season is a 21-10 record, a second place in the A10 tournament, and an NIT invitation.

We need to win all of the remaining games in the A10 to get a 25-6 record for the season and a possible at large bid to the dance. I just do not think this will happen. Can we win the A10 tournament? Maybe, we will see.

This is what I expect to happen for the rest of this season, it is my eyeball estimate, it is not reality, not yet anyway. I think we may possibly win some of the remaining games against opponents that were expected to win against us, but we are also likely to lose some of the games we were supposed to win. I also think the probability of winning the A10 tournament is low at this time, and may become much lower if we lose a couple more games. 

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lets not forget young hughes is getting likely incredible life experience basketball advice from his father who was a darn good defender in the pros and a very good offensive player as well.   it is pretty obvious he listens. 

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

lets not forget young hughes is getting likely incredible life experience basketball advice from his father who was a darn good defender in the pros and a very good offensive player as well.   it is pretty obvious he listens. 

I am sure Jayson Tatum is always willing to let Larry pick his brain as well. They are practically cousins. That certainly is another good asset to have.

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

lets not forget young hughes is getting likely incredible life experience basketball advice from his father who was a darn good defender in the pros and a very good offensive player as well.   it is pretty obvious he listens. 

NBA 1st team All Defense in 2005!

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Perkins needs to be out of the rotation altogether. Even when he can shoot he is so injured and slow that he cannot provide defense or ball handling support. I've seen enough, the injuries are too severe.

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18 minutes ago, Soderball said:

Perkins needs to be out of the rotation altogether. Even when he can shoot he is so injured and slow that he cannot provide defense or ball handling support. I've seen enough, the injuries are too severe.

Rotation-wise, Perk should be on the Dion Wiley plan until his physical condition significantly improves, which god willing comes before the postseason. 

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1 hour ago, Matty Light said:

Rotation-wise, Perk should be on the Dion Wiley plan until his physical condition significantly improves, which god willing comes before the postseason. 

However, Ford appears to be totally insensitive to his condition and, I would think, is likely to be putting pressure on him to improve. This is something he plainly cannot do.

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3 minutes ago, Old guy said:

However, Ford appears to be totally insensitive to his condition and, I would think, is likely to be putting pressure on him to improve. This is something he plainly cannot do.

I think this is nonsense. Ridiculous speculation.

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2 hours ago, Old guy said:

Please explain why it is ridiculous? What you are really saying is that you cannot see or believe this would happen. OK, so you cannot see it happening.

He hasn’t played more than 20 minutes SINCE his best game of the season. 

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11 hours ago, longtimelistenerfirsttimec said:

I believe that ford plays perkins out of loyalty and apprecation of the hard work he did to come back to the team and try to play ford is that kind of coach making up things to fit your scenario I dont think that is best decision for the team or the fans

Perk looked effective vs. SIUE until he didn’t get the ball the final 10 minutes. Did he hurt himself since then?

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2 minutes ago, VeniceMenace said:

Perk looked effective vs. SIUE until he didn’t get the ball the final 10 minutes. Did he hurt himself since then?

That's a good question.  He looked like 2021 Perkins in that game.  

I'll die on this hill/beating the horse.  IF we were to win in Brooklyn, its because Okoro and perkins to some degree are clicking. No matter the struggle with them, they need minutes. 

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20 minutes ago, VeniceMenace said:

Perk looked effective vs. SIUE until he didn’t get the ball the final 10 minutes. Did he hurt himself since then?

After the SIU-e game , Perkins was questionable for the next 2 games with an ankle injury...he played limited minutes in those 2 games...In the St. B game he was no longer listed on the injury report and played more minutes but not a full Perkins game.  He is not now on the injury list but may not be at 100%.

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1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

After the SIU-e game , Perkins was questionable for the next 2 games with an ankle injury...he played limited minutes in those 2 games...In the St. B game he was no longer listed on the injury report and played more minutes but not a full Perkins game.  He is not now on the injury list but may not be at 100%.

If by 100% you mean playing like he was before the injury, he is not going to get there any time soon. If by 100% you mean playing in a way that contributes positively to the team, he can do this.

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