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The Bills over Mass by 2


The Wiz

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The 17 

4-3...10 to go... We remain at B+...We did what we were supposed to do against St. J.  which would be fine if we were already at A-  but we need to start beating the spreads  to improve.  We still have plenty of time but the clock is ticking.

Game Outlook

This will be more of a test for the Bills than the St. J. game.   The Hawks were a C team ...UMass is a B- team.  The Minutemen aren't a very good team offensively but what makes them better than St. J is their defense. The good news about the St. J game is we not only won away but could have done a lot better....We will need some of that "better" for this game.

A quick look at the report card...

...................SLU....................Mass.........................SLU..........................Mass

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B........................D+.........................D+..................................B-

FG%...............C.......................D-..........................A-...................................B

3P%...............D.........................D+.........................C...................................B

FT%...............A..........................D-..................................................................

Reb...............A+...10th ITN......B+........................C-...................................B-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....PPG...FG%........Def.....Reb

Down.........Off....none........Def.....3P%

Opp TOs....F-...19th WITN...I have added this stat for now...It usually not a major variable but in this case it is so low it is having an effect on games. I will drop it when we move above F-.

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......85th  all time D1 list

Reb...Okoro...39th...dn

Blks...Okoro ...57th...up

Off Reb...Okoro...12th ...dn

St. J

FG%...Dominguez...77th

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills...

Perkins...1/1/23...Ankle...Ques for UMass game

Mass...

Leveque...12/31/22...undisclosed injury...missed the last game...uncertain for Jan 4th

Diggins...exact same report as Leveque

Keys to the game ....They have some shooters but if you guard them they will either pass or miss the shot. From the arc...Cross & Weeks are the ones to watch...inside the arc Fernandez and Dominguez are the shooters...if they are missing the injured players on Wed they will use Martin to fill the gap.   They are a deep team...we will not be able to tire them out. They can rebound...we need to battle them on the boards.  Keep the TOs down.

WWN2D2W...Make the slash...45/35/76...Hold their top 3 scorers to below 30 pts.  ... We need to have more FGAs than Mass...keep 2nd chances and TOs down...Hold them to 69 pts....11 TOs...Beat them on the boards by 6

Bottom line....We need to step up our game against Mass.  Bother them with defense...some steals and no open shots.  Let's take care of the Minutemen in a short time.

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14 minutes ago, Schasz said:

One thing not factored into computers are the HC's. Frank Martin is a very good HC. This will be a tall task for SLU on the road. Another game I would not bet the house that we pull off.

BS, Martin had a 171 - 147 record at South Carolina and was 79 - 99 in SEC play. 

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8 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

BS, Martin had a 171 - 147 record at South Carolina and was 79 - 99 in SEC play. 

Well you can say BS but the SEC is a meat grinder compared to the A-10. Take that from someone who knows that for certain since I also follow the SEC very close. His record was 117-54 at K-State including an Elite 8 in 2010. I'd take him any day over Ford!

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8 minutes ago, Schasz said:

Well you can say BS but the SEC is a meat grinder compared to the A-10. Take that from someone who knows that for certain since I also follow the SEC very close. His record was 117-54 at K-State including an Elite 8 in 2010. I'd take him any day over Ford!

Yes, and they have all kinds of recruiting advantages. All I’m asking for is consistency in evaluating coaches. To call Ford terrible and Martin outstanding is ridiculous and shows your opinion is driven by hate not facts.

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Why waste time antagonizing people that firmly believed this season we would see a reincarnation of a Perkins in his full pre-injury form, and were seriously convinced we would go at least up to sweet 16 in the Dance? We are going nowhere this year unless we win the A10 tournament. Next year will be the same as long as we have Ford as a coach.

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53 minutes ago, Schasz said:

One thing not factored into computers are the HC's. Frank Martin is a very good HC. This will be a tall task for SLU on the road. Another game I would not bet the house that we pull off.

I would argue that everything is factored into the computer...whether it is coaching ability, team chemistry, a player playing hurt or the X factor (something you can't see on the surface but is affecting the team).  While there is no special number for these items, they are baked into the data.  My philosophy is that if it affects the outcome of the game it is being measured directly or indirectly.  One of the variables I use is a trend line in reverse order.  The data from the most recent games are weighted more heavily than the earlier ones. By the time you get to the 14 games , the computer "knows" what kind of a coach it is dealing with.

The most difficult situation is some sort of major change event...Covid suddenly takes out 3 or 4 players...a coaching change mid season  etc.  Fortunately, these are rare but if they do happen ...even these can be factored in over a few games and the computer will adjust accordingly.  The UMass game is an example of a mini event.  UMass has lost 2 players  to undisclosed injuries...same day ...both questionable for Wed...both have missed just 1 game.  On one side, it looks like UMass has good depth and that neither of these players are starters.  But the computer does note some sort of an effect. The unknowns are... will the placements be able to fill the holes...will the injured players come back and play at less than 100%. These are the unknowns.  Final take for the computer is that it will have a minor effect.

If those players are out for the next 5 games...the data will adjust accordingly.

Bottom line...you can't hide  from the computer (at least for very long)...everything is baked in.

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1 hour ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

Yes, and they have all kinds of recruiting advantages. All I’m asking for is consistency in evaluating coaches. To call Ford terrible and Martin outstanding is ridiculous and shows your opinion is driven by hate not facts.

Nope...not hate at all. Boards like this one are based upon peoples opinions. You are entitled to yours just as others like me are entitled to voice their opinions. That's what fans do on every board I opine on.

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Martin has a very successful run at KState.  In his five seasons there, he went to the post season all five times (4 NCAAS and 1 NIT).He won at least one game each time making the Elite Eight in 2010.  He parlayed that into an upgrade to South Carolina, where he finished third twice.  He made the Final Four in 2017 and slowly dropped from there, never making the NCAA again.  South Carolina fired him as the third winningest coach in their history.

I don't know enough about Martin's tactics (although his bench demeanor is horrible) but he has taken two "lesser" teams to an Elite and a Final Four so on that alone I'd say he trumps Ford.  The Umass gig will likely either put Frank into oblivion if he fails or at some other P6 school if he succeeds.  I don't see success there however .... at least not yet on the limited data.

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Frank Martin is a good coach. (That of course has nothing to do with SLU)

He took the job at UMass because his wife is an alum there.

Dave Odom made the NCAA Tourney 8 times at Wake Forest. He made it once at South Carolina.

Darrin Horn is another former South Carolina head coach that has done better before (and after) South Carolina. 

Eddie Fogler is another head coach that did better before South Carolina. 

Will Lamont Paris be the next? 

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30 minutes ago, wgstl said:

South Carolina is not a school that cares about their basketball teams, very hard place to win. 

Football (well they try and have rabid fans) and baseball. They hate Clemson (who they play annually Thanksgiving weekend) with a passion who has been far more successful with Dabo. Was at the NCAAs Baseball opening round in Columbia when SLU Baseball Team played close to a decade ago. The ballpark looks like a Double A park with all the bells and whistles and amenities. They fill it during the season.

Martin a darn good coach. He's been to the Promise Land-Final 4.  His defense is Majerus like. Heard opposing SEC coaches complain when I used have XM radio and listen to the SEC station and College Basketball station, "we dribble down the court and nothing. Can't run the offense."

Also, give Archie a little time.

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2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I would argue that everything is factored into the computer...whether it is coaching ability, team chemistry, a player playing hurt or the X factor (something you can't see on the surface but is affecting the team).  While there is no special number for these items, they are baked into the data.  My philosophy is that if it affects the outcome of the game it is being measured directly or indirectly.  One of the variables I use is a trend line in reverse order.  The data from the most recent games are weighted more heavily than the earlier ones. By the time you get to the 14 games , the computer "knows" what kind of a coach it is dealing with.

The most difficult situation is some sort of major change event...Covid suddenly takes out 3 or 4 players...a coaching change mid season  etc.  Fortunately, these are rare but if they do happen ...even these can be factored in over a few games and the computer will adjust accordingly.  The UMass game is an example of a mini event.  UMass has lost 2 players  to undisclosed injuries...same day ...both questionable for Wed...both have missed just 1 game.  On one side, it looks like UMass has good depth and that neither of these players are starters.  But the computer does note some sort of an effect. The unknowns are... will the placements be able to fill the holes...will the injured players come back and play at less than 100%. These are the unknowns.  Final take for the computer is that it will have a minor effect.

If those players are out for the next 5 games...the data will adjust accordingly.

Bottom line...you can't hide  from the computer (at least for very long)...everything is baked in.

Thanks Hal

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37 minutes ago, almaman said:

Thanks Hal

“Just a moment, just a moment, there’s a fault in the AE45 unit.” Hal is the greatest movie villian of all-time!!
 

Regarding UMass, could we just play smart, make some shots, and be up 20 with 5 to go? OK, to be sure of a win, up 30 with 5 to go, but the question still stands.

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26 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

“Just a moment, just a moment, there’s a fault in the AE45 unit.” Hal is the greatest movie villian of all-time!!
 

Regarding UMass, could we just play smart, make some shots, and be up 20 with 5 to go? OK, to be sure of a win, up 30 with 5 to go, but the question still stands.

"Good morning Dave"

The Wiz program unlike HAL has no evil intent.  It exists only for the purpose of tracking The Bills and helping them win games.  All they have to do is follow the simple instructions under WWN2D2W.

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11 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

"Good morning Dave"

The Wiz program unlike HAL has no evil intent.  It exists only for the purpose of tracking The Bills and helping them win games.  All they have to do is follow the simple instructions under WWN2D2W.

Neither did HAL if you watched the later movies, which weren't great.  Then again I watched most of them at a time when I thought the Buck Rodgers TV show with Gil Gerard and Erin Gray was hardcore scientifiction.  Anyone born in the late sixties or early seventies who didn't fall in love with Erin Gray has something wrong with them......

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16 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

"Good morning Dave"

The Wiz program unlike HAL has no evil intent.  It exists only for the purpose of tracking The Bills and helping them win games.  All they have to do is follow the simple instructions under WWN2D2W.

Investigation report: The computer that is faulty and will not follow the WWN2D2W instructions is labelled FORD. The subroutine labelled PERKINS is functionally inconsistent, it functions well sometimes, and does the opposite other times. The subroutine labelled COLLINS contains malaware that makes it function in a binodal manner, with one functional node favoring the team and the other countering it. The subroutine labelled OKORO is consistently and rapidly neutralized by external striped agents and made non functional for large stretches of time. These malfunctions are apparently not detected, prevented, or corrected properly by the computer labelled FORD. Suggest a system reset in safe mode followed by debugging or a replacement of the computer labelled FORD with a glitch free unit.

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22 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

"Good morning Dave"

The Wiz program unlike HAL has no evil intent.  It exists only for the purpose of tracking The Bills and helping them win games.  All they have to do is follow the simple instructions under WWN2D2W.

Is the name of your computer “Skynet”?

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