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The Bills over St. J by 6


The Wiz

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The 17 

3-3...11 to go... We remain at B+...A quick review of grading...B+ = 15% C2D...70% NIT.....A- = 70% C2D...15% NIT....At B+ we are moving sideways...At some point we need to move to A-...The computer is showing at this point we will be favored in the next 11 games.... The next 11 games will be about getting to A-.  Not an easy task but the computer is showing we can do it.

Game Outlook

St. J  is a C- team.  In terms of overall difficulty they are about the same as SIU-e.  St. J is not a good shooting team...and they have an even weaker defense.  But they do have a couple of 3 P shooters in Reynolds and Cameron.....The loss of Winborne a few days ago weakens St. J  further particularly at guard.  Playing an SIU-e equivalent, especially away, should be a wake up call that we need to play offense AND defense in this game.  We can't lose this game but we can give it away.

A quick look at the report card...

...................SLU....................St. J..........................SLU..........................St. J

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B-........................C-.........................D+..................................D+

FG%...............C-.......................D-.........................A-...................................C+

3P%...............D.........................C-..........................C+...................................D+

FT%...............A..........................C-..................................................................

Reb...............A+...12th ITN......D+........................D+...................................D-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....none........Def.....none

Down.........Off....PPG...3P%...FT%........Def.....Reb

Opp TOs....F-...19th WITN...I have added this stat for now...It usually not a major variable but in this case it is so low it is having an effect on games. I will drop it when we move above F-.

FT% note....Jimerson is a top 30 shooter but is not listed as he is 8 shots short of qualifying.  Also, Parker is a top 10 shooter but is 4 short of being listed.  With this in mind ...here is our  line up with with less than 2 min and a 1 or 2pt lead.... or at least when we are on offense...FT% after each player.

Parker...94%

Jimerson...92%

Pickett...84%

Perkins...80%

Collins...78%

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......102nd  all time D1 list

Reb...Okoro...30th...dn

Dou Dou...Okoro & Collins ....72nd...dn

Blks...Okoro ...64th...dn

Off Reb...Okoro...8th ...dn

St. J

PPG...Reynolds...48th

FT%...Reynolds...52nd

3PM...Brown...35th...Reynolds...58th

Dou Dou...Brown...72nd

Injury /Illness report and misc

St. Joe

Winborne...12/19...Lower leg injury....out 2 weeks

Essandoke...11/22...Eligibility...out indefinitely

Keys to the game ....They will put up lots of 3s....mainly Brown and Reynolds.... cut down on their 3PA....When Brown or Reynolds come out ...shut down the St. J offense.... Speaking of 3s , if we start making some ,we will win the game handily....missing will make it a nail biter.    Dominate the boards on both ends.  Force some TOs.

WWN2D2W...Make the slash...46/35/78...Stop Reynolds and Brown...hold them to a combined 24pts and seven 3PA each.  Dominate the boards by double digits...Hold them to 67 pts....3 TO diff in favor of SLU.

Bottom line....If we play offense and defense this game, we will leave the Hawks flapping in the wind.

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Forgive me for saying this, but we are not a bad team. What we are not is a team that comes close to the exaggerated level of expectations this board had. We have big fails as a team, having Yuri control the ball is not something anywhere close to a path to victory. Not infrequently it is a path to defeat.

Yuri has cost us games and probably our chance to go to the Dance. But Yuri, of course, does not operate in a vacuum. It is Ford that agrees with whatever he is doing and does not stop him when he if rushing towards defeat, that is the true cause of our problems.

Coaches are responsible for the way players are allowed to play. He should yank Yuri off the court, at least like  he does with Okoro and others.

You want a team with confident players capable of taking risks and scoring? Then you  need a different coach leading the team.

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10 hours ago, Old guy said:

Forgive me for saying this, but we are not a bad team. What we are not is a team that comes close to the exaggerated level of expectations this board had. We have big fails as a team, having Yuri control the ball is not something anywhere close to a path to victory. Not infrequently it is a path to defeat.

Yuri has cost us games and probably our chance to go to the Dance. But Yuri, of course, does not operate in a vacuum. It is Ford that agrees with whatever he is doing and does not stop him when he if rushing towards defeat, that is the true cause of our problems.

Coaches are responsible for the way players are allowed to play. He should yank Yuri off the court, at least like  he does with Okoro and others.

You want a team with confident players capable of taking risks and scoring? Then you  need a different coach leading the team.

I don't believe the board had exaggerated level of expectation.  Rothstein for one had them as a top 25 preseason.  The problem is that they have not lived up to the expectations that others had.  Last year they had the same expectations and when Perkins got hurt then all bets were off.  With Perkins returning, the expectations returned.  Now were the expectations accurate that is a different question.

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On 12/24/2022 at 8:51 PM, Old guy said:

Forgive me for saying this, but we are not a bad team. What we are not is a team that comes close to the exaggerated level of expectations this board had. We have big fails as a team, having Yuri control the ball is not something anywhere close to a path to victory. Not infrequently it is a path to defeat.

Yuri has cost us games and probably our chance to go to the Dance. But Yuri, of course, does not operate in a vacuum. It is Ford that agrees with whatever he is doing and does not stop him when he if rushing towards defeat, that is the true cause of our problems.

Coaches are responsible for the way players are allowed to play. He should yank Yuri off the court, at least like  he does with Okoro and others.

You want a team with confident players capable of taking risks and scoring? Then you  need a different coach leading the team.

Hey, Old Fart, watch games through a different lens once in a while. There are more problems than just Yuri. 

I'll happily admit that he has issues, some much larger than I'd care for, but most ALL of his issues are greatly enhanced by the problems of those around him. Yuri Collins is still the best passing point guard in the country and that's how our team was built - to complement that truth. The issue is our entire team fu**ing sucks, and what can a pass first guard do when nobody can make a damn shot? Not a lot. Drive into trouble and hope for a foul I guess. A lot of this is on the coach, some of it is on Yuri, some of it is on every other player that steps on the court. There is not one sole reason or person at fault and your bit is getting real old.

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32 minutes ago, Bills By 40 said:

Yuri Collins is still the best passing point guard in the country 

i agree.   if only that was all he aspired to be.

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Instead of progressing we have players that are regressing. Why, is the question. Suddenly Jimerson’s shot vanished. Pickett’s inspired play has turned to mush. Okoro’s FT’s turn to bricks. And that goes for the team’s FT % dropping by almost 20 percentage points over the last 4 games. Yurimania’s slick passes have been replaced by senseless drives into the tall trees. Team cohesiveness has vaporized. 
Time for the staff to stop the slide so says Captain Obvious,  or else this virus could spiral out of control. We all now how teams find another gear in Conference play, and if we don’t find ours quickly it’s gonna be game over for this bunch. 

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5 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Instead of progressing we have players that are regressing. Why, is the question. Suddenly Jimerson’s shot vanished. Pickett’s inspired play has turned to mush. Okoro’s FT’s turn to bricks. And that goes for the team’s FT % dropping by almost 20 percentage points over the last 4 games. Yurimania’s slick passes have been replaced by senseless drives into the tall trees. Team cohesiveness has vaporized. 
Time for the staff to stop the slide so says Captain Obvious,  or else this virus could spiral out of control. We all now how teams find another gear in Conference play, and if we don’t find ours quickly it’s gonna be game over for this bunch. 

The only thing I know to do is bench the players not performing and let the bench players try to win a spot.

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I am still of the opinion this is on Ford.  For the entirety of the Ford regime, I have asked the same question .... just what is the offense?  Now it appears obvious, the answer has always been 'hero ball.'  There have been times when we've seen two 'heros,' i.e. Bess & Isabell, Goodwin & French, Goodwin & Perkins, but it seems now, we are down to Collins solo given that Perkins has been slow to recover and Jimerson's shot seems, well, shot.  Ford said we were going to run an dlaunch threes.  What did he ask for?  Something like 27 threes a game coming back from Europe?  Seemed doable with Jimerson, Perkins,  Parker and to a lesser degree Pickett, Collins and Thatch.  But we puckered and now we are back to what Ford seems to know best --- or solely.  His reversion back to the mean of hero ball.  

Still, it's not all on Collins.  Most of it but it still seems to me that there is no  offensive design for a continual offense.  Sure, Ford seems great at designing those one-off plays out of timeouts that get us dunks and open looks, but the rest of the offense is run the three-pass weave, enter the ball into the high post, have the ball handed back to Collins, and then the drive into the trees.  With that as the obvious, defenders are daring Collins to beat them with his shooting and not his passing.  I think this team just needs to run and gun and see hwat breaks from there.  Give it a try.  St. Joes has neither the athletes nor the bench to stay with us.

Otherwise, we can run and gun until the 8 minute mark and then go zone prevent offense.  Walk it up.  Run clock.  Trade time for baskets made.  We've all seen how that works.  Auburn.  UAB.  Belmont.  Auburn again.  Memphis.  SIUE.  Only win was Memphis.  I say if your current system ain't working (3 and 4 in last seven) screw it and change it up.  All you can do is lose and we're already doing that quite consistently.  

The future remains bright as the regular season is upon us.  The team with the best record is still a C team according to the Wiz.  

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

i agree.   if only that was all he aspired to be.

If coach installed a decent offense, we were running in transition more often, and the other guys were doing their jobs better he'd have the option to revert to only passing, but none of those seem to be the case.  

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2 hours ago, Bills By 40 said:

Hey, Old Fart, watch games through a different lens once in a while. There are more problems than just Yuri. 

I'll happily admit that he has issues, some much larger than I'd care for, but most ALL of his issues are greatly enhanced by the problems of those around him. Yuri Collins is still the best passing point guard in the country and that's how our team was built - to complement that truth. The issue is our entire team fu**ing sucks, and what can a pass first guard do when nobody can make a damn shot? Not a lot. Drive into trouble and hope for a foul I guess. A lot of this is on the coach, some of it is on Yuri, some of it is on every other player that steps on the court. There is not one sole reason or person at fault and your bit is getting real old.

In the last 5 minutes of the SIUE game Yuri had a layup blocked, a stupid turnover when he exposed the ball to the defender, had another layup blocked, missed a layup, caused Okoro to foul out with an illegal screen and missed another layup.  The stat sheet gives Yuri one turnover in the last five minutes, but in reality he caused the ball to be turned over to SIUE six times in the last five minutes.  We were up seven when Yuri had that first layup blocked.  He had four layups blocked in the last ten minutes of the game and missed another two.  

Is Yuri the only problem? No, but what has happened to him at the end of games where we have blown big leads is not what you want out of your PG.

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ford likely created this mess by implanting in yuri's head his importance and role he needed to play.   how he gets out of that now is not going to be an easy task.  

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Perkins had a bad stretch hitting 3’s and now it’s Jimerson.

Perkins got his shot back and so will Jimerson.

Yuri tries to do too much when shots are not falling and most times it does not work.

Ford drives me crazy when he does not sit a player and replace them with one of the freshmen for just a few minutes.  Cisse should have played 3 or 4 minutes in the SIUE game, Hughes should see 5 minutes every game.  Thatch and Hargrove are not playing so well in that Thames and Hughes could have some of their minutes.

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10 minutes ago, CBFan said:

Perkins had a bad stretch hitting 3’s and now it’s Jimerson.

Perkins got his shot back and so will Jimerson.

Yuri tries to do too much when shots are not falling and most times it does not work.

Ford drives me crazy when he does not sit a player and replace them with one of the freshmen for just a few minutes.  Cisse should have played 3 or 4 minutes in the SIUE game, Hughes should see 5 minutes every game.  Thatch and Hargrove are not playing so well in that Thames and Hughes could have some of their minutes.

I think a lot of us feel TJ is not getting enough minutes and here you are trying to take them away. 

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On 12/23/2022 at 5:00 PM, The Wiz said:

The computer is showing at this point we will be favored in the next 11 games.... The next 11 games will be about getting to A-.  Not an easy task but the computer is showing we can do it.

 

The factors that the computer model is not able to quantify are (lack of) leadership, (lack of) chemistry, (lack of) effort, and (lack of) team spirit. In my view, that's why the computer predictions have been way off in several games this year.

I agree that, ultimately, it's on TFord, but I thinks Yuri needs to take a lot of the blame. He went to the NBA combine, and they told him to show that he can score, so that's what he is trying to do; selfishly, at times. Plus, Yuri is the floor general, so he should be the team leader. I'm not seeing any of that. 

I sense that there may be bad blood between some of the players, which keeps everybody from being a big happy family.

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1 hour ago, brianstl said:

In the last 5 minutes of the SIUE game Yuri had a layup blocked, a stupid turnover when he exposed the ball to the defender, had another layup blocked, missed a layup, caused Okoro to foul out with an illegal screen and missed another layup.  The stat sheet gives Yuri one turnover in the last five minutes, but in reality he caused the ball to be turned over to SIUE six times in the last five minutes.  We were up seven when Yuri had that first layup blocked.  He had four layups blocked in the last ten minutes of the game and missed another two.  

Is Yuri the only problem? No, but what has happened to him at the end of games where we have blown big leads is not what you want out of your PG.

Okoro fouled out because he laid a shoulder into the defender he was screening. Yuri might've left early, I'm not arguing that, but what got the call was the much larger Okoro setting an obviously illegal screen on a much smaller defender. He does this often and gets away with it. 

The other argument I'm not willing to settle on is that Yuri's tendency to over-drive and take shots we'd probably rather he didn't is at least in part, arguably in large part or majority, due to his teammates lack of movement (Gibby excluded) and overall inability to score the fu**ing basketball. 

Most importantly, yes, I wish Yuri was better at closing games. We'd be in a different situation right now and surely a lot happier. Wouldn't hurt if someone else could close out a game too, though, including Ford. 

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33 minutes ago, Bills By 40 said:

Okoro fouled out because he laid a shoulder into the defender he was screening. Yuri might've left early, I'm not arguing that, but what got the call was the much larger Okoro setting an obviously illegal screen on a much smaller defender. He does this often and gets away with it. 

The other argument I'm not willing to settle on is that Yuri's tendency to over-drive and take shots we'd probably rather he didn't is at least in part, arguably in large part or majority, due to his teammates lack of movement (Gibby excluded) and overall inability to score the fu**ing basketball. 

Most importantly, yes, I wish Yuri was better at closing games. We'd be in a different situation right now and surely a lot happier. Wouldn't hurt if someone else could close out a game too, though, including Ford. 

the screener has to be completely set before the player with the ball drives.   sorry, yes, okoro officially gets the foul but it was yuri's poor handling of the situation that caused the foul.

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39 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

the screener has to be completely set before the player with the ball drives.   sorry, yes, okoro officially gets the foul but it was yuri's poor handling of the situation that caused the foul.

How often have we complained about moving screens? See: Obi Toppin. You and I both know they don't get called a VAST majority of the time. It's how the screen is set far more than it is when. Okoro set the screen with a shoulder, can't do that. 

BUT if that's the logic we're using, let's talk about the turnovers credited to Yuri that are really the fault of the receivers ;)  

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