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The Bills over SIU-e by 16


The Wiz

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The 17 

We are 3-2 now with 12 to go....We are still favored to win the next 12 games ... Again this doesn't mean we will win 12 in a row but the outlook is good going forward.

Chance 2 Dance  

No percent to report this game as we have dropped below 50%.  It wasn't that the Drake game hurt us ... during the week we were off,  a number of teams that were behind us won and crept past us.  We will face the same issue after the SIU-e game with another long layoff.... But if we keep winning we should climb back into contention shortly...see The 17 topic above.

Game Outlook

We remain at B+ in that we did what we were supposed to do against Drake. With SIU-e,  we are facing the pride of the Ohio Valley Conference. They are most likely to win their conference  and to go dancing.  But as you can see by the spread this isn't a formidable team.  The OVC is one of the weakest conferences in D1.  SIU-e is now showing as a D+ team overall. We will win this game as long as we don't take them for granted.  If the Bills read this headline and decide not to show up then we will have a problem.  Last game we learned to walk and chew gum at the same time ie play offense and defense in the same game even if it was only for 1 quarter.  This would be a great game to do it for 4 quarters. If we play D like we did against Drake ...SIU-e will wither as they are not as good as Drake under pressure. They tend to turn the ball over more. But they will do so only if we bother them.  Point of information...We are an F team (21st WITN) in terms of forcing opp TOs. 

A quick look at the report card...

...................SLU....................SIU-e..........................SLU..........................SIU-e

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B..........................B.........................D+..................................C-

FG%...............C-.......................B-.........................A-..................................B-

3P%...............D+......................C-..........................C+...................................C-

FT%...............A+...16th ITN.....B.............................................

Reb...............A+...12th ITN......C+........................C-...................................C-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....FT%........Def.....none

Down.........Off....FG%...3P%........Def....PPG...3P%

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......113th  all time D1 list

Reb...Okoro...21st...up

3PM...Jimerson...84th...dn

Dou Dou...Okoro ....54th...up

Blks...Okoro ...48th...dn

Off Reb...Okoro...5th ...up

Off Reb...SLU...9th...up

SIU-e

Stls...S Wright...63rd

3P%...L Wright...7th

Injury /Illness report and misc

None

Keys to the game ....Keep the Wright Brothers in check...and the answers are ...No and Yes...No airplanes and Yes they are brothers. Shamar takes steals and Lamar takes 3s.  Good starting 5 ...lots of depth but the depth doesn't score much...open up a lead when they sub.  Play offense AND defense . 

WWN2D2W...46/35/78...Make 3 less TOs than the Cougars...out reb them by 8...Hold their high 5 to 47 pts  and their team to 69pts overall.....Stop  the Wright Brothers ...Lamar one  3PM...Shamar 1 steal...Slash 46/35/78

Bottom line....Keep the Wright Brothers down and The Bills will be flying high.

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SIUe is 8-4, but only 5-4 against D-1 comp. No impressive wins but challenged Bradley late before falling 56-54. 

This is likely their best team since ‘07 and they have a solid starting five. Thinking this could be tight as late as mid-second half before the Bills pull away late. Hopefully, our guys are in the process of figuring things out and will take care of business vs. the Cougars.

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3 hours ago, Cowboy II said:

-wow, D+ 3pt% and D+ on ppg against

-let's play a good game with a win and don't foul 3pt shooters

Yes...you have found the 2 weaknesses in the report card...the 2 D pluses.  What will it take to fix those?...not much.  They are small but important fixes.  On the 3P%...we are shooting in the low 32's... We should be at least at 35.2% which would put us at a grade of B.  Is this doable? Yes.  Last year we shot 36.1% for the entire year ...an A-.  And we were supposed to be a better shooting team this year.  This is important to fix  not just for the extra couple of percentage points but because we are taking more 3s.  If this doesn't get better, than the 3 will not be worth the extra risk .  And then the solution will be to take less 3s.

Opp PPG ...we need to hold the opposition to 69 pts at a minimum...that would put us at a C level.  Ideally, to be at a B level we need to keep teams at 67ppg. Our def FG% is good , we just have to cut down the number of shots the opponents  take and also not to leave wide open 3s.  Trying to force TOs would be part of that pressure that would reduce opp PPG.

If we can get those 2 items on the report card going (and they are both very doable) , we would be looking at some long winning streaks. We are not that far away from being a really good team...Just do it.

 

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This is the Team Rankings data for this game. The Vegas spread favors SLU to win by 15 pts, very close to the Wiz's calculation. Currently SLU is ranked 77 and SIUe is ranked 229 by  Team Rankings. Both teams are 8-4 in wins vs losses but SLU has lost its 4 games to teams ranked 24 to 69. SIUe has lost to 2 teams in the top 100, 1 team in the 100-200 ranking and one team in the 200-300 ranking. SLUs wins have been against higher ranking teams than SIUe's. SLU has won against 1 non D1 team within its 8 wins, SIUe won over 2 non D1 teams within its 8 wins. SLU has  superior stats in 6 offensive categories and 4 defensive categories, SIUe has superior stats in 2 offensive categories and 3 defensive categories. The large spread in favor of SLU appears well justified for this game. This should not be a close game.

Now, we have to wait until tomorrow to see what happens.

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7 minutes ago, Compton said:

Who do you believe?

It is a tough call as I see how administratively SLU can be poor (much better in recent years).  I can only imagine how bad it was in the 80's. 

One of the first examples (outside of emails sending incorrect notes about opponents and dates) was when the fire alarm went off in the arena and SLU seemed to have no actual plan for how to deal with that scenario.  I remember Gus Foulups even announcing "Nobody is telling me what to do" since he didn't know what to say to anyone.

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We Have only lost to SIUE once.  We lost to SIUE 67-64 in front of 1,229 fans at the old Kiel Auditorium in the Budweiser Holiday Classic on December 28, 1982.  SIUE beat SLU-Parks College Campus 85-32 at SUIE on February 1, 1983.  That is the second game they are counting as a victory against SLU.

This is the 82-83 SIUE basketball schedule from the fall 1982 SIUE Alumnus magazine.  Before this, I never knew Parks ever had their own athletic program when it was a separate campus in Cahokia. 

default.png

 

 

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In the early 1980's, there was a St. Louis area small college basketball league that I unfortunately coached in.  My team could not chew gum and run at the same time.  Our 6'5" center was breaking in, all alone, on a break away layup and when passed the ball .. ducked!  It was that bad.  Schools included St. Louis Christian, Fontbonne (maybe), Sanford-Brown, Logan Chiropractic, Parks and Cardinal Newman College.  We played a few games at Parks in Cahokia.  n two years, we beat only Sanford-Brown, once, in double overtime.  

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30 minutes ago, brianstl said:

We Have only lost to SIUE once.  We lost to SIUE 67-64 in front of 1,229 fans at the old Kiel Auditorium in the Budweiser Holiday Classic on December 28, 1982.  SIUE beat SLU-Parks College Campus 85-32 at SUIE on February 1, 1983.  That is the second game they are counting as a victory against SLU.

This is the 82-83 SIUE basketball schedule from the fall 1982 SIUE Alumnus magazine.  Before this, I never knew Parks ever had their own athletic program when it was a separate campus in Cahokia. 

default.png

 

 

I wonder who ended with a higher count: Wilt Chamberlain or Dick Krause...

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Our chance to dance may have taken a hit tonight. Having listened to parts of a couple of their games, SIUe had me worried. Still thought we wouldn’t sh!+ the bed though.

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Well that was painful.

Let's take a look at the final minutes...

Bills lead by 18 with 9:15 left in the game.

Bills lead by 13 with 5:41 left in the game

Bills lead by 1 with 3:24 left in the game.

Not a good sequence....a quick fold.

From my original post....We will win this game as long as we don't take them for granted.  If the Bills read this headline and decide not to show up then we will have a problem....  They not only looked at the spread thread headline but also looked at the scoreboard with 9:15 left in the game and then stopped playing.

WWN2D2W...46/35/78...Actual spread...40/28/57...To make the projected spread  ( Bills average game)  we needed 2 more 2s...2 more 3s and 5 more FTs...nothing we haven't done many times before...Had we made the spread there would have been 15 more pts and we win by at least 13. ...or you can pick out any 1 segment of the slash and we win the game by just making that 1 segment.

hold their team to 69pts.... The sad thing was the D was good enough to win...69 is the minimum ppg on defense...67 is ideal and doable as per the computer.

out reb them by 8....a costly miss here ...Okoro playing 10 min below his average time was an issue here.

Bottom line...from the game outlook...Last game (Drake) we learned to walk and chew gum at the same time ie play offense and defense in the same game even if it was only for 1 quarter. This would be a great game to do it for 4 quarters. ..As there was a shortfall on the offense we only chewed gum this game.

We need to pull things together for conference play. We have work to do but the forecast shows it can be done.

 

 

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We have success feeding Jake and Francis… We have success dishing to Javonte. We have success when Fred drives and either makes or gets his own boards and puts it back up. Sh$t, we have success when Pickett gets going. We show well when Gibson gets hot or when he is driving and cutting and Yuri finds him. We have Success when TJ runs and Yuri finds him in the air. We have so many pathways to success but I just don’t think Yuri driving into trees…getting stuffed and manhandled… taking horrible shots at low percentages is a recipe for success. Yet we go to that every time we are close… every time it’s late in game. He goes hero ball and it NEVER works. He has won us a few close games at the buzzer and I like his ability to finish inside despite his size but please, please, please fu$cking please don’t make that the game plan when other things have been working all night!!!

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