Billiken Basketball in the modern Tournament Era according to Massey

[brianstl]

I decided to look back at old rankings just to try to figure out where the Travis Ford years rank over the 64 team tournament era of college basketball. I used Massey's ratings because for me where the easiest to track down.  This season we rank 76.  If you include this years ranking, this would be the lowest volatility period with rankings of 74, 74, 76 and 76.  Spoon had the highest ranked team with 15 in in the 94-95 season.  Ford's first season was the worst at 238.  When it comes to Biondi's now decades old stated goal of a top 50 program only Grawer (1 time), Spoon (2), Majerus (1) and Crews (2) have had team's that finished in the top 50.   Only Grawer (2), Spoon (3) Romar (1) and Crews (2) have had a team finish in the top 64.  Grawer (3), Spoon (6), Romar (3), Brad (3), Majerus (2), Crews (2) and Ford (4) had teams finish in the top 100.

 

Grawer Era

• 85-152
• 86-109
• 87-84
• 88-128
• 89-49
• 90-64
• 91-115
• 92-191

Grawer Era average 111.5

Spoon Era

• 93-92
• 94-35
• 95-15
• 96-86
• 97-157
• 98-56
• 99-77

Spoon Era average 74

Romar Era

• 00-59
• 01-67
• 02-83

Romar Era average 69.7

Brad Era

• 03-75
• 04-73
• 05-157
• 06-112
• 07-97

Brad Era average 102.8

Majerus Era

• 08-117
• 09-126
• 10-96
• 11-130
• 12-28

Majerus Era average 99.4

Crews Era

• 13-24
• 14-33
• 15-215
• 16-198

Crews Era average 117.5

Ford Era

• 17-238
• 18-140
• 19-99
• 20-74
• 21-74
• 22-76

Ford Era average 116.8.  If you add in this season's current 76, the average comes down to 111.

 

Just some thoughts......

I was actually shocked how much better overall the Spoon Era really was than the Majerus+2 Crews seasons Era was.  Maybe (probably), Rick was building something better, but that is all hypothetical talk.  What Spoon accomplished as fast as he did, is amazing.  SLU has gone a little crazy over the last decade handing out banners because it feels good at the moment, but if Majerus has a banner hanging, so should Spoon.  

Seeing how the Grawer era ended always saddens me.  

Romar despite missing out on his top targets kept the program talented enough to contend after his Miracle in Memphis start, but Brad couldn't build on it.  Can't really fairly judge Romar's program best average because it was only three seasons and he came into a pretty solid situation.  

We all remember the Majerus Era better than it actually was.  It was great, but I think most people think of it as the best of the modern tournament era.  I would argue that the Spoon Era was better overall.  What Rick eventually built was amazing, but it took a long time to get there.  He had more +100 ranked teams in five seasons than Brad did.

Crews, the less said the better.  He destroyed what Rick had eventually built.

Now Ford.......

One great conference tournament run, is something Ford deserves credit for.  He seems to get much more credit for it than Romar ever did from the fans on here.  After the rebuild outside of the one tournament run he is just kind of there. Nothing great and nothing awful.

 

I am sure I screwed up somewhere with this.   Here is the link I got the numbers from https://masseyratings.com/cb/6841

[Old guy]

Brian STL measurements like rankings for sports teams do not go up or down steadily, they can go  up and down. There are regular changes in the coaching staffs and the players. You cannot expect consistent and steady trends. If you are asking if Ford is the best coach we have had the answer is no, but he is not the worst either.

[juniorbill76]

The data show the Ford era with steady improvement until COVID. Maybe he has plateaued, maybe not.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Following Brian's lead, I reviewed SLU's Pomeroy ratings, which on the kenpom.com website are available beginning with 2002, thereby fully encompassing the last 4 SLU Coaches.  The results:

Average Pomeroy

1.  Rick Majerus 107.8;  2.  Travis Ford 110.14, counting this season (61) to date;  3.  Brad Soderberg 115.4;  4.  Jim Crews 142.25.

Winning Percentage:

1.  Travis Ford .595;  2.  Rick Majerus .579268;  3.  Jim Crews .578947;  4.  Brad Soderberg  .519.

Now granted this is not an exact science, for example the first 2 years under Jim Crews, including his Interim year, were played with Rick Majerus recruited players, during which Crews' teams went 28-7 and 27-7, with Pomeroy's of 19 and 35, respectively.  The cupboard was barren in Travis Ford's first season, with the Crews recruits having departed, with Ford's first team going 12-21, Pomeroy 273.  But this study does give some perspective.

Conclusion:  Elements of the fanbase, irrespective of hair color, including this poster, need to come off the figurative ledge.  Yes, SLU had a bad week with 2 losses, we don't like what we're seeing and how things are trending.  But this season is far from over, with 2 more non-conference games, the entire 18 game A10 regular season, and the A10 Tournament to go.  SLU has only completed 35.5% of its season.  While this may not be an NCAA Tourney at large season, as many of us expected, Coach Ford's track record at SLU, in terms of wins and losses, shows that better days lie ahead this season. Since the Situation 2 season of '17-'18 was put in the rear view mirror, SLU is 90-44, .672 under Coach Ford.  

Let's keep the faith, Billiken Nation.

[Old guy]

3 hours ago, juniorbill76 said:

The data show the Ford era with steady improvement until COVID. Maybe he has plateaued, maybe not.

You learned a new word, didn't you. You are welcome.

[CBFan]

2 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Following Brian's lead, I reviewed SLU's Pomeroy ratings, which on the kenpom.com website are available beginning with 2002, thereby fully encompassing the last 4 SLU Coaches.  The results:

Average Pomeroy

1.  Rick Majerus 107.8;  2.  Travis Ford 110.14, counting this season (61) to date;  3.  Brad Soderberg 115.4;  4.  Jim Crews 142.25.

Winning Percentage:

1.  Travis Ford .595;  2.  Rick Majerus .579268;  3.  Jim Crews .578947;  4.  Brad Soderberg  .519.

Now granted this is not an exact science, for example the first 2 years under Jim Crews, including his Interim year, were played with Rick Majerus recruited players, during which Crews' teams went 28-7 and 27-7, with Pomeroy's of 19 and 35, respectively.  The cupboard was barren in Travis Ford's first season, with the Crews recruits having departed, with Ford's first team going 12-21, Pomeroy 273.  But this study does give some perspective.

Conclusion:  Elements of the fanbase, irrespective of hair color, including this poster, need to come off the figurative ledge.  Yes, SLU had a bad week with 2 losses, we don't like what we're seeing and how things are trending.  But this season is far from over, with 2 more non-conference games, the entire 18 game A10 regular season, and the A10 Tournament to go.  SLU has only completed 35.5% of its season.  While this may not be an NCAA Tourney at large season, as many of us expected, Coach Ford's track record at SLU, in terms of wins and losses, shows that better days lie ahead this season. Since the Situation 2 season of '17-'18 was put in the rear view mirror, SLU is 90-44, .672 under Coach Ford.  

Let's keep the faith, Billiken Nation.

Good post, the program has been steady under coach Ford but the team cannot get over the top 50 hump.

When posters complain about hitting the big shot has happened many times under Ford at big game.

Lots of big shots on the A10 tournament win is an example.

My issues are the beat downs under Ford the last 2 seasons.

I am off the ledge and I will just enjoy Billiken basketball again and not worry about ratings.

[Old guy]

2 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Following Brian's lead, I reviewed SLU's Pomeroy ratings, which on the kenpom.com website are available beginning with 2002, thereby fully encompassing the last 4 SLU Coaches.  The results:

Average Pomeroy

1.  Rick Majerus 107.8;  2.  Travis Ford 110.14, counting this season (61) to date;  3.  Brad Soderberg 115.4;  4.  Jim Crews 142.25.

Winning Percentage:

1.  Travis Ford .595;  2.  Rick Majerus .579268;  3.  Jim Crews .578947;  4.  Brad Soderberg  .519.

Now granted this is not an exact science, for example the first 2 years under Jim Crews, including his Interim year, were played with Rick Majerus recruited players, during which Crews' teams went 28-7 and 27-7, with Pomeroy's of 19 and 35, respectively.  The cupboard was barren in Travis Ford's first season, with the Crews recruits having departed, with Ford's first team going 12-21, Pomeroy 273.  But this study does give some perspective.

Conclusion:  Elements of the fanbase, irrespective of hair color, including this poster, need to come off the figurative ledge.  Yes, SLU had a bad week with 2 losses, we don't like what we're seeing and how things are trending.  But this season is far from over, with 2 more non-conference games, the entire 18 game A10 regular season, and the A10 Tournament to go.  SLU has only completed 35.5% of its season.  While this may not be an NCAA Tourney at large season, as many of us expected, Coach Ford's track record at SLU, in terms of wins and losses, shows that better days lie ahead this season. Since the Situation 2 season of '17-'18 was put in the rear view mirror, SLU is 90-44, .672 under Coach Ford.  

Let's keep the faith, Billiken Nation.

I hate to correct your thinking, but a LOT of the members of this board were convinced, before the beginning of the season, that we were not only certain to go to the NCAA tournament, but would advance at the very least up to sweet sixteen. I do not think there is anyone left that is serious about going to sweet sixteen this season. The NCAA tournament may still be a possibility, though.

[AnkielBreakers]

6 hours ago, brianstl said:

I decided to look back at old rankings just to try to figure out where the Travis Ford years rank over the 64 team tournament era of college basketball. I used Massey's ratings because for me where the easiest to track down.  This season we rank 76.  If you include this years ranking, this would be volatility period with rankings of 74, 74, 76 and 76.  Spoon had the highest ranked team with 15 in in the 94-95 season.  Ford's first season was the worst at 238.  When it comes to Biondi's now decades old stated goal of a top 50 program only Grawer (1 time), Spoon (2), Majerus (1) and Crews (2) have had team's that finished in the top 50.   Only Grawer (2), Spoon (3) Romar (1) and Crews (2) have had a team finish in the top 64.  Grawer (3), Spoon (6), Romar (3), Brad (3), Majerus (2), Crews (2) and Ford (4) had teams finish in the top 100.

 

Grawer Era

• 85-152
• 86-109
• 87-84
• 88-128
• 89-49
• 90-64
• 91-115
• 92-191

Grawer Era average 111.5

Spoon Era

• 93-92
• 94-35
• 95-15
• 96-86
• 97-157
• 98-56
• 99-77

Spoon Era average 74

Romar Era

• 00-59
• 01-67
• 02-83

Romar Era average 69.7

Brad Era

• 03-75
• 04-73
• 05-157
• 06-112
• 07-97

Brad Era average 102.8

Majerus Era

• 08-117
• 09-126
• 10-96
• 11-130
• 12-28

Majerus Era average 99.4

Crews Era

• 13-24
• 14-33
• 15-215
• 16-198

Crews Era average 117.5

Ford Era

• 17-238
• 18-140
• 19-99
• 20-74
• 21-74
• 22-76

Ford Era average 116.8.  If you add in this season's current 76, the average comes down to 111.

 

Just some thoughts......

I was actually shocked how much better overall the Spoon Era really was than the Majerus+2 Crews seasons Era was.  Maybe (probably), Rick was building something better, but that is all hypothetical talk.  What Spoon accomplished as fast as he did, is amazing.  SLU has gone a little crazy over the last decade handing out banners because it feels good at the moment, but if Majerus has a banner hanging, so should Spoon.  

Seeing how the Grawer era ended always saddens me.  

Romar despite missing out on his top targets kept the program talented enough to contend after his Miracle in Memphis start, but Brad couldn't build on it.  Can't really fairly judge Romar's program best average because it was only three seasons and he came into a pretty solid situation.  

We all remember the Majerus Era better than it actually was.  It was great, but I think most people think of it as the best of the modern tournament era.  I would argue that the Spoon Era was better overall.  What Rick eventually built was amazing, but it took a long time to get there.  He had more +100 ranked teams in five seasons than Brad did.

Crews, the less said the better.  He destroyed what Rick had eventually built.

Now Ford.......

One great conference tournament run, is something Ford deserves credit for.  He seems to get much more credit for it than Romar ever did from the fans on here.  After the rebuild outside of the one tournament run he is just kind of there. Nothing great and nothing awful.

 

I am sure I screwed up somewhere with this.   Here is the link I got the numbers from https://masseyratings.com/cb/6841

This is really smart. It also is probably the most logical analysis against Ford that I have seen.
 

That said, if you take out the first year for every coach, a different story emerges. Ford ends up at an average of ~92. Which is not bad on the list above. Only behind Spoon and Romar. Crews tanks, which is nice to see.

[juniorbill76]

4 hours ago, Old guy said:

You learned a new word, didn't you. You are welcome.

Excuse me?

[Slu let the dogs out?]

5 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Following Brian's lead, I reviewed SLU's Pomeroy ratings, which on the kenpom.com website are available beginning with 2002, thereby fully encompassing the last 4 SLU Coaches.  The results:

Average Pomeroy

1.  Rick Majerus 107.8;  2.  Travis Ford 110.14, counting this season (61) to date;  3.  Brad Soderberg 115.4;  4.  Jim Crews 142.25.

Winning Percentage:

1.  Travis Ford .595;  2.  Rick Majerus .579268;  3.  Jim Crews .578947;  4.  Brad Soderberg  .519.

Now granted this is not an exact science, for example the first 2 years under Jim Crews, including his Interim year, were played with Rick Majerus recruited players, during which Crews' teams went 28-7 and 27-7, with Pomeroy's of 19 and 35, respectively.  The cupboard was barren in Travis Ford's first season, with the Crews recruits having departed, with Ford's first team going 12-21, Pomeroy 273.  But this study does give some perspective.

Conclusion:  Elements of the fanbase, irrespective of hair color, including this poster, need to come off the figurative ledge.  Yes, SLU had a bad week with 2 losses, we don't like what we're seeing and how things are trending.  But this season is far from over, with 2 more non-conference games, the entire 18 game A10 regular season, and the A10 Tournament to go.  SLU has only completed 35.5% of its season.  While this may not be an NCAA Tourney at large season, as many of us expected, Coach Ford's track record at SLU, in terms of wins and losses, shows that better days lie ahead this season. Since the Situation 2 season of '17-'18 was put in the rear view mirror, SLU is 90-44, .672 under Coach Ford.  

Let's keep the faith, Billiken Nation.

I see what you did there, BABs . Out of likes otherwise you would have received one. 
 

8 hours ago, juniorbill76 said:

The data show the Ford era with steady improvement until COVID. Maybe he has plateaued, maybe not.

Let’s be honest…Old Guy could’ve taken SLU from 238 to 140. 140 to 74 is a different story and Ford definitely deserves credit. Problem is, Ford seems to plateau at all of his stops and COVID (or situation IV or injuries) certainly isn’t an excuse this year. I really hope we make the tournament this year so we can stop talking about Ford’s future (for 8 months). 

[Bay Area Billiken]

https://www.facebook.com/nflmemes4you/photos/a.498765176883814/5706662282760718/?type=3

We need a similar type chart for our Billiken fandom.

[JMM28]

Ford is hitting that "die a hero or live long enough to become a villain" phase of his tenure at SLU. 

He and his staff have recruited very talented players over the 7 years he has been at SLU. 

He and his staff have not maximized that talent over the 7 years he has been at SLU. 

Ford can get a lot of good parts, but he has shown over many stops and many years that he can't put those parts together to a greater sum. That is indisputable fact at this point. Majerus was the opposite of that. He wasn't necessarily recruiting the top flight talent, but he put together a team that fit his system. 

I think we've already seen what Travis Ford will ever accomplish at SLU. He's never finished top 4 in conference at SLU. His only A10 title came at UMass 16 years ago. He has never seen the second weekend of a tournament as a coach. 

He is a fine coach if you want a relevant team. He is not worth what he is being paid at SLU. 

I'd say the success of Jordan Goodwin with the Wizards is another indictment of Ford as well. 

[Billiken Rich]

21 minutes ago, JMM28 said:

I'd say the success of Jordan Goodwin with the Wizards is another indictment of Ford as well. 

How is that?

[billiken_roy]

rich, i assume you havent followed goodwin's wizards journey very close.   as you may or may not know, he barely made the team at the beginning of the season and pretty much didnt play for the first month.   he has gradually increased that time and the last 3 games he has been the starting point guard.   he fills almost every column on the stat sheet most every game and has become a very important player on the team.   

his shooting percentages are near 50% even from the further 3 point line.  

so my guess is jmm is wondering why his play with the billikens never suggested he would even make the nba let alone be this entrenched in the team rotation?   while he was a good billiken, i doubt any of us thought he would rise through the ranks of the Wizards like this.  how did he improve so much more and faster than when he was in college?  isnt player development part of the head coach's job?   this development happened after graduation not before.  

[Billiken Rich]

17 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

rich, i assume you havent followed goodwin's wizards journey very close.   as you may or may not know, he barely made the team at the beginning of the season and pretty much didnt play for the first month.   he has gradually increased that time and the last 3 games he has been the starting point guard.   he fills almost every column on the stat sheet most every game and has become a very important player on the team.   

his shooting percentages are near 50% even from the further 3 point line.  

so my guess is jmm is wondering why his play with the billikens never suggested he would even make the nba let alone be this entrenched in the team rotation?   while he was a good billiken, i doubt any of us thought he would rise through the ranks of the Wizards like this.  how did he improve so much more and faster than when he was in college?  isnt player development part of the head coach's job?   this development happened after graduation not before.  

So a player works his ass off to get better, and does in college and the pros.  The fact that he's shooting better as a pro is proof that Travis was somehow holding him back?  Did anyone ask him if that was the case?  As a driven individual, I would expect Jordan to get better with nothing else to do, like school work and family distractions.  I seem to recall Goodwin being a pretty damn good college player.  His shot was never great but everything else was there.  He got a shot in the NBA on a team that needed someone like him and it's been working out and that is AWESOME. Someone like Bess, sadly, did not find that happy spot.  Was that Travis' fault too?  If you are correct, I think some of us are warping the facts to suit our need to flagellate our coach.......

[JMM28]

34 minutes ago, Billiken Rich said:

So a player works his ass off to get better, and does in college and the pros.  The fact that he's shooting better as a pro is proof that Travis was somehow holding him back?  Did anyone ask him if that was the case?  As a driven individual, I would expect Jordan to get better with nothing else to do, like school work and family distractions.  I seem to recall Goodwin being a pretty damn good college player.  His shot was never great but everything else was there.  He got a shot in the NBA on a team that needed someone like him and it's been working out and that is AWESOME. Someone like Bess, sadly, did not find that happy spot.  Was that Travis' fault too?  If you are correct, I think some of us are warping the facts to suit our need to flagellate our coach.......

Agree with most of Roy’s post. I’d say it’s an indictment because a team that had 2 “fringe” NBA guys and an all conference PF couldn’t finish above 4th in conference. A team with that amount of talent should win the A10 9/10 times. And they lost at home to a really bad Richmond team instead. 

[Billiken Rich]

You are changing the argument.  I love Hasahn French and he would have a starting spot as a Billiken this year for sure.  I'm not sure you can call him a "fringe NBA guy" given his limitations though.  Was I happy about the way last year ended, no.  Am I happy with the Bills current record?  No. Is this all the Travis hating getting silly, yes.......

 

 

[billiken_roy]

rich to be clear, i am not hating Travis Ford.   i have constantly said, Travis Ford is my coach and i do not want him to go away.   i do join the group that does not particularly think he does a good job of floor coaching and player development.   however he knows how to assemble talent thus we will always have a chance to be there in March.  so i am sticking with ford, the greatest recruiter in my billiken fandom.  

 

[Bay Area Billiken]

I see both sides of this debate.

What I’m saying, after some passage of time from the past week, is this discussion is premature. 

[JMM28]

1 hour ago, Billiken Rich said:

You are changing the argument.  I love Hasahn French and he would have a starting spot as a Billiken this year for sure.  I'm not sure you can call him a "fringe NBA guy" given his limitations though.  Was I happy about the way last year ended, no.  Am I happy with the Bills current record?  No. Is this all the Travis hating getting silly, yes.......

 

 

Javon Bess was the fringe NBA guy. Hasahn was the all conference PF. Goodwin was the other fringe NBA guy (although he seems like he is going to stick.) Hasahn French would also be the best player on this team this year, but I digress. 

Roy summed up most of the feeling - Goodwin was a very good college player. But he was never a guy that was looked at as an NBA guy. The development at SLU wasn't there. He was a top 100 recruit that had a career at (or below) expectations for a top 100 recruit. 

[gobillsgo]

14 hours ago, juniorbill76 said:

Excuse me?

OG is one of those MDs who think everyone that isn’t an MD is a moron…

[Billiken Rich]

7 minutes ago, JMM28 said:

Javon Bess was the fringe NBA guy. Hasahn was the all conference PF. Goodwin was the other fringe NBA guy (although he seems like he is going to stick.) Hasahn French would also be the best player on this team this year, but I digress. 

Roy summed up most of the feeling - Goodwin was a very good college player. But he was never a guy that was looked at as an NBA guy. The development at SLU wasn't there. He was a top 100 recruit that had a career at (or below) expectations for a top 100 recruit. 

Bess graduated in what 2019?  There was discussion of Goodwin's NBA prospects throughout his career.  Given all of the trials and tribulations we're all aware of, who in their right mind didn't have Goodwin fulfill their expectations?  Revisionist history like this is how some believe......well all sorts of stuff that just didn't happen (didn't want to go political) 

[JMM28]

26 minutes ago, Billiken Rich said:

Bess graduated in what 2019?  There was discussion of Goodwin's NBA prospects throughout his career.  Given all of the trials and tribulations we're all aware of, who in their right mind didn't have Goodwin fulfill their expectations?  Revisionist history like this is how some believe......well all sorts of stuff that just didn't happen (didn't want to go political) 

Bess was a senior when Goodwin and French were playing their sophomore seasons. The only tournament team in Ford's tenure and only because of a single weekend. That team was 6th place in conference with more of those maddening losses. A team that was predicted to be a top 2 team. 

I said Goodwin met expectations for a top 100 recruit. 

[Billiken Rich]

1 minute ago, JMM28 said:

Bess was a senior when Goodwin and French were playing their sophomore seasons. The only tournament team in Ford's tenure and only because of a single weekend. That team was 6th place in conference with more of those maddening losses. 

I said Goodwin met expectations for a top 100 recruit. 

To be fair you said "at or below."  I say he exceeded my expectations. 

 

I will say the only time Travis has really exceeded my expectations were the seasons when he had few to no options as to who would be on the floor.  The band playing the theme to the "Magnificent Seven" because that's what we had......

Ford has had a ton of legitimate excuses for his record, which is still pretty good.  This year, other than Perkins being hobbled still, there aren't any really good excuses.  Perkins not being Perkins is tough to watch.  I feel for the guy but we should be good enough without him.  We still may be.  Ford's teams seem to get better as the season goes on.

I've got no problems saying the last few games suck but this Ford has always sucked stuff is just too much......

 

  

 

 

 

[JMM28]

14 minutes ago, Billiken Rich said:

I've got no problems saying the last few games suck but this Ford has always sucked stuff is just too much......

 

I’m not saying he sucks at all. I said he’s a good recruiter and bad at putting those pieces together. Any rational person would come to the same conclusion. And he’s always been that way. As I said “he’s fine if you want a relevant program. He’s not worth what he’s being paid at SLU.”