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The Average Path to Greatness


The Wiz

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13 minutes ago, Old guy said:

The way I read this is that doing as well as last year is, in your mind, a sign that we are in acceptably good shape. We are not, your whole argument is based upon winning against Drake. Then, assuming we do win over Drake, we are so good that we can expect a slot in the NIT. This is just wonderful!

Is this thread about the average path to greatness or the average path to mediocrity? A bad result last year, a year we should have done better than we did, and ended by going to the NIT and playing a single game before being eliminated. You are willing to settle for that as as a suitable goal? Is this thread about the average path to greatness or the average path to mediocrity?

This is not about a glass half full, it is about a glass close to empty and then making up reasons why we should believe, or hope, or pray that it turns out to be half full. Please, please, please help us Jesus is what I hear.

This was my original post before what you quoted.."

We’re no better than we were last year. A part of my actually thinks we’re slightly worse. "

 
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1 hour ago, wgstl said:

We went 3-4 last year in our 7 key games (top100) teams, with a win against drake we would go 3-4 again against top 100 KP teams.  While currently KP has 22 higher on average than 21, it'll probably finish pretty close as auburn will take a tumble from where they are at currently.  So at the end of the day, when going back and forth on this, all I can say is at the very least its about dead even. That's still not good. And that's considering we beat Drake otherwise its a no brainer that this year is worse. 

Also the blowouts to Maryland and Iona should be looked at more closely than just oh well.  At least we had no major blowout last year other than @ Memphis by 16.

I'll settle that the teams are tied if they beat drake when comparing the last 2 seasons, but with a loss its not looking all that close. 

 

Using ending KP #s for 2021 and current KP # for 2022:

2021

  • Wins: @Boise St. (39), Iona (89), Boston College (114), Stephen F. Austin (123)
  • Losses: Auburn (12), @Memphis (24), UAB (51), Belmont (86)

2022

  • Wins: Memphis (26), Providence (69), Southern Illinois (108)
  • Losses: @Auburn (17), Maryland (18), Boise St. (49), @Iona (57)
  • TBD: Drake (91)

A loss to Drake definitely ends any debate. But looking at the numbers, a win means this non-con has been better than the last. 4 wins and 4 losses against better teams on average. Although, fair point about the blow out differential between '21 and '22.

 

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1 minute ago, Compton said:

Using ending KP #s for 2021 and current KP # for 2022:

2021

  • Wins: @Boise St. (39), Iona (89), Boston College (114), Stephen F. Austin (123)
  • Losses: Auburn (12), @Memphis (24), UAB (51), Belmont (86)

2022

  • Wins: Memphis (26), Providence (69), Southern Illinois (108)
  • Losses: @Auburn (17), Maryland (18), Boise St. (49), @Iona (57)
  • TBD: Drake (91)

A loss to Drake definitely ends any debate. But looking at the numbers, a win means this non-con has been better than the last. 4 wins and 4 losses against better teams on average. Although, fair point about the blow out differential between '21 and '22.

 

My only "IMO" is that Auburn will fall, quite a bit.  I do not think they're a t25 at all. If I were to guess, they'll fall to mid 30s-40s by mid conf.  That said, even without Perkins and parker, this team should be better than last years, and at this point, a solid argument can be made they're not or that they are equal to.

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15 minutes ago, wgstl said:

(1) My only "IMO" is that Auburn will fall, quite a bit.  I do not think they're a t25 at all. If I were to guess, they'll fall to mid 30s-40s by mid conf. (2) That said, even without Perkins and parker, this team should be better than last years, and at this point, a solid argument can be made they're not or that they are equal to.

1) I'm not so sure of this. For our sake I hope I'm right and you're wrong but I don't think you'd disagree with that part.

2) If we were just without Perkins and Parker, sure, but I don't think anyone expected to be without Perkins, Parker, Forrester, AND Okoro. Hard to overcome being down two starters and two significant role players. 

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2 hours ago, Bills By 40 said:

1) I'm not so sure of this. For our sake I hope I'm right and you're wrong but I don't think you'd disagree with that part.

2) If we were just without Perkins and Parker, sure, but I don't think anyone expected to be without Perkins, Parker, Forrester, AND Okoro. Hard to overcome being down two starters and two significant role players. 

for the sake of SLU I too hope you're right.  But after watching a few of their games, I don't think they're anything special. 

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Again, more pleading for help from heaven. That may be the correct way to proceed, we are not going to get ahead otherwise.

Expectations and "should happen" oftentimes become "did not happen." This is exactly what probability is useful for, to rein the dreams and bring them back to reality.

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4 minutes ago, BACKHANDtheRICAN said:

We will not get an at large bid this year. Period. I'm not sure why everyone loves to waste their time evaluating our chances. It's 0.

It should be as clear to you as it is to me that a lot of these people follow Disney's idea of "dream dream and your dreams will come true" a lot of the "thinking" is fantasy and is predicated by "this should happen." No one knows what will happen, and a lot of what the board thought should happen did not happen.

ABomb has posted a history of Ford's record as a coach. He has always done what he is doing here, good recruiter, loses games he should have won. Very mediocre record, check what the OSU board says about Ford as a coach, it was also posted in this board. Ford is set in his pattern, this is not likely to change, it was there in the past, it is there now, and it will most likely be there in the future, wherever he happens to go after the Bills. Ford and his coaching are not going to change without divine intervention.

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:

The other side of this is “Have you seen what the rest of the A10 looks like this year?”  Why is winning the conference mission impossible? To say the A10 is having a down year is a massive understatement.

The fact that Fordham is 11-1 with a similar SOS as some of the rest of the conference is great evidence of this.

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Someone needs to backhand BACKHANDtheRICAN. I'm sick of this dude. 

15 hours ago, BrettJollyComedyHour said:

The fact that Fordham is 11-1 with a similar SOS as some of the rest of the conference is great evidence of this.

I had to look into this, because I knew Fordham had a bottom-5 ITN SOS. I thought no way the rest of the league could be that bad...

Turns out:

  • SLU is the only team in the top-180 SOS in the nation
  • We only have two other teams in the top-200, UMass (8-2, NET 87) and Richmond (5-5, NET 122)
  • We have two teams in the BOTTOM 5, GW and Fordham. 

Fu** this conference. 

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