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The Average Path to Greatness


The Wiz

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The Billikens are a good team.

Greatness is about consistency. Even the above statement is inconsistent in people's reaction to it.  At the beginning of the season, no one would have disagreed with that sentence. Now that statement can be a controversial one. 

In looking at the Bills, there is inconsistency.  When you look at the last 2 games the one thing that immediately stands out is the shooting %.  You don't need a computer to see that.  But what you do need a computer for is to get the larger picture.  To see what is going on when looking down from 20,000 feet rather than 2 ft.  The real issue is not about shooting...Shooting just happens to be the issue now. The real issue is inconsistency. In a few posts I have mentioned we have played good offense and poor defense. Last night we played good defense but poor offense.  If we can do both , we are unstoppable. 

How do you do both?  By being average.  Imagine a baseball player who goes 4-4 at the plate one night. And then the next night goes 0-4.. He does that for the rest of the season great night... bad night and finishes at an unbelievable .500 batting ave.  Unfortunately, his team follows suit and they finish at .500 in games won and lost and out of the playoffs.  If our player in another scenario still bats .500 but goes 2-4 every  night,  the team is in every game and goes .650 for  the season and makes the playoffs. Our player still bats 500 but in the 2nd scenario is consistent.

So how do you become consistent?  By being average.  Many times being average  is looked at as settling for  mediocrity. But being average can lead to greatness.  If YOUR average is above everyone else's then you are a good team. When the computer looks at the variables ...all the variables , not just shooting ...it sees at team that when it plays to its average can win most of its games.  And that is a way you can spot a good team. When it plays its average game it beats most teams. That is The Bills.  If the Bills can play their average regularly they will become consistent and win games.  Once they become consistent , they can get even better by moving their average up slowly. ....Moving from good to great.

Once they put the pieces together, the Bills will be a dangerous team. A team that nobody will want to play.   If we remain disconnected ...good one night, bad another.. teams will say ...The Bills are a good team but they can be beaten.  It is still early in the season and there is time to gel.  What ever you think of Ford as a Coach,  he has shown in the past the ability to bring teams together ...to gel them by March. The computer says the numbers are there but like your grade school picture...it is time to connect the dots.

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I don't need a computer because I have experience training young men and data from Ford's career to extrapolate an outcome.  If I am training a group of inexperienced men but they are capable I expect to see inconsistent results.   Great execution once or twice and mistakes other times.   As that group becomes more experienced I expect consistent good outcomes.   SLU is a very experienced team but still experiencing the inconsistency.   However these are the results Ford has always achieved even with the best player in CBB (at the time) Marcus Smart and now with the #1 assist leader in the nation.   There is only the 1 A10 tournament championship run to suggest there might be a good outcome for the Billikens.  However that event was the outlier not the norm.   If that does occur the next game is likely a crushing loss.

I've seen enough time to change coaches

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6 hours ago, The Wiz said:

The Billikens are a good team.

Greatness is about consistency. Even the above statement is inconsistent in people's reaction to it.  At the beginning of the season, no one would have disagreed with that sentence. Now that statement can be a controversial one. 

In looking at the Bills, there is inconsistency.  When you look at the last 2 games the one thing that immediately stands out is the shooting %.  You don't need a computer to see that.  But what you do need a computer for is to get the larger picture.  To see what is going on when looking down from 20,000 feet rather than 2 ft.  The real issue is not about shooting...Shooting just happens to be the issue now. The real issue is inconsistency. In a few posts I have mentioned we have played good offense and poor defense. Last night we played good defense but poor offense.  If we can do both , we are unstoppable. 

How do you do both?  By being average.  Imagine a baseball player who goes 4-4 at the plate one night. And then the next night goes 0-4.. He does that for the rest of the season great night... bad night and finishes at an unbelievable .500 batting ave.  Unfortunately, his team follows suit and they finish at .500 in games won and lost and out of the playoffs.  If our player in another scenario still bats .500 but goes 2-4 every  night,  the team is in every game and goes .650 for  the season and makes the playoffs. Our player still bats 500 but in the 2nd scenario is consistent.

So how do you become consistent?  By being average.  Many times being average  is looked at as settling for being mediocrity. But being average can lead to greatness.  If YOUR average is above everyone else's then you are a good team. When the computer looks at the variables ...all the variables , not just shooting ...it sees at team that when it plays to its average can win most of its games.  And that is a way you can spot a good team. When it plays its average game it beats most teams. That is The Bills.  If the Bills can play their average regularly they will become consistent and win games.  Once they become consistent , they can get even better by moving their average up slowly. ....Moving from good to great.

Once they put the pieces together, the Bills will be a dangerous team. A team that nobody will want to play.   If we remain disconnected ...good one night, bad another.. teams will say ...The Bills are a good team but they can be beaten.  It is still early in the season and there is time to gel.  What ever you think of Ford as a Coach,  he has shown in the past the ability to bring teams together ...to gel them by March. The computer says the numbers are there but like your grade school picture...it is time to connect the dots.

Great post as always Wiz.  I particularly liked “being average is looked at as settling for being mediocrity (sic).  But being average can lead to greatness.”.  The baseball analogy explains it all.

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As far as the Bills inconsistency goes, I think that what really matters is what Ford actually changes to fix it, how individual players respond (either positively or negatively) to whatever Ford changes, and how May likes the results he sees. I think we should be a lot more consistent in our game results than we are currently experiencing. My real concern is this: is anyone looking for real correctable causes that can fix or improve our inconsistencies or not? As long as this problem remains something that Ford talks about but no changes are implemented successfully that fix or improve the inconsistencies, the Bills will experience problems. If Ford cannot solve these problems, then the inconsistency we are experiencing becomes a problem for May to solve.

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1 hour ago, wgstl said:

The problem with the whole Perkins thing, we shouldn't even need him like we do.  The team should have been an at large team without Perkins. 

If all else went as expected, yes. 

But that includes a slower than projected transition for Sincere. 

That includes Forester being (so far) a major downgrade from Linssen when we expected him to be an improvement.

That includes Okoro being what we saw in the first half of last year, not the second. 

 

If just one or two of those four things above were true, we'd be in great shape. Probably 9-2. If only three of the above were our current reality we'd surely have won one of Auburn/Boise, kept the others closer. But so far it seems we have far more issues than anyone could've projected and it has proven to be too much to overcome. 

The good news is all four of those issues could very well resolve themselves between now and the important part of the season. Necessity is the mother of innovation and we sure as hell NEED to figure something out. We've seen lesser SLU teams gel and succeed far beyond expectations in the second half of the season before, we have no reason to believe this team can't or won't do the same.  

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I didn't factor in Parker this year because I never trust Jucos. Anything Parker would give us would be a bonus. 

Okoro and Jake are my biggest disappointments. 

I thought the core of Yuri, Gibby, Fred, Pickett, TJH, and okoro would be strong enough. 

Also speaking of Fred, we need him shooting 3-4 3's a game. Same with THJ.  

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1 minute ago, wgstl said:

I didn't factor in Parker this year because I never trust Jucos. Anything Parker would give us would be a bonus. 

Okoro and Jake are my biggest disappointments. 

I thought the core of Yuri, Gibby, Fred, Pickett, TJH, and okoro would be strong enough. 

Also speaking of Fred, we need him shooting 3-4 3's a game. Same with THJ.  

Exactly, this team without Perk or Parker even on the roster should have won the last two games.

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2 hours ago, Bills By 40 said:

If all else went as expected, yes. 

But that includes a slower than projected transition for Sincere. 

That includes Forester being (so far) a major downgrade from Linssen when we expected him to be an improvement.

That includes Okoro being what we saw in the first half of last year, not the second. 

 

If just one or two of those four things above were true, we'd be in great shape. Probably 9-2. If only three of the above were our current reality we'd surely have won one of Auburn/Boise, kept the others closer. But so far it seems we have far more issues than anyone could've projected and it has proven to be too much to overcome. 

The good news is all four of those issues could very well resolve themselves between now and the important part of the season. Necessity is the mother of innovation and we sure as hell NEED to figure something out. We've seen lesser SLU teams gel and succeed far beyond expectations in the second half of the season before, we have no reason to believe this team can't or won't do the same.  

In my view, Yuri going 5/16 with 8 turnovers was the only reason we lost to Boise.  Pickett would make a good move/score, we'd make a stop and then Yuri would just pass it to the other team.  Completely shut down by a 5'11 Jimmy Chitwood type at home is just awful.  

Against Iona he went 5/12 with 5 turnovers, very little effort, deer in headlights, no talking.  Just getting completely outclassed by a MAAC team.  

The hard regression of Yuri when the competition rises above the level of SIU and Tenn St is something we all need to look at squarely in the face.  The fact that Ford thinks he is some reincarnation of stephon marbury/steve nash has directly contributed to 2 losses maybe 3.  We have no one else so at this point there is no other option for us.  Ford's roster construction relied on Yuri being an all american which was um....dumb.   

Honestly looking forward to just handing the keys to Cian Medley and playing more team basketball.  

 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

In my view, Yuri going 5/16 with 8 turnovers was the only reason we lost to Boise.  Pickett would make a good move/score, we'd make a stop and then Yuri would just pass it to the other team.  Completely shut down by a 5'11 Jimmy Chitwood type at home is just awful.  

Against Iona he went 5/12 with 5 turnovers, very little effort, deer in headlights, no talking.  Just getting completely outclassed by a MAAC team.  

The hard regression of Yuri when the competition rises above the level of SIU and Tenn St is something we all need to look at squarely in the face.  The fact that Ford thinks he is some reincarnation of stephon marbury/steve nash has directly contributed to 2 losses maybe 3.  We have no one else so at this point there is no other option for us.  Ford's roster construction relied on Yuri being an all american which was um....dumb.   

Honestly looking forward to just handing the keys to Cian Medley and playing more team basketball.  

 

 

 

Pretty harsh but intriguing.  Boise and Iona are also two pretty good defensive teams.  Yuri's 8 turnovers against Boise were the result of his normal passes getting picked off by the defense.  Have to give the defense some credit for making us look like a cyc team.......

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5 minutes ago, Billiken Rich said:

Pretty harsh but intriguing.  Boise and Iona are also two pretty good defensive teams.  Yuri's 8 turnovers against Boise were the result of his normal passes getting picked off by the defense.  Have to give the defense some credit for making us look like a cyc team.......

Also if Yuri only had 5 turnovers against Iona then I’m dating Blake Lively.  Box score be lying. 

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50 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

In my view, Yuri going 5/16 with 8 turnovers was the only reason we lost to Boise.  Pickett would make a good move/score, we'd make a stop and then Yuri would just pass it to the other team.  Completely shut down by a 5'11 Jimmy Chitwood type at home is just awful.  

Against Iona he went 5/12 with 5 turnovers, very little effort, deer in headlights, no talking.  Just getting completely outclassed by a MAAC team.  

The hard regression of Yuri when the competition rises above the level of SIU and Tenn St is something we all need to look at squarely in the face.  The fact that Ford thinks he is some reincarnation of stephon marbury/steve nash has directly contributed to 2 losses maybe 3.  We have no one else so at this point there is no other option for us.  Ford's roster construction relied on Yuri being an all american which was um....dumb.   

Honestly looking forward to just handing the keys to Cian Medley and playing more team basketball.  

One of those 8 turnovers was the forced drive in the final seconds that IMO was a defensive foul. Multiple of those 8 turnovers were the fault of teammates who seemingly refuse to be passed to anymore. Our frontcourt has hands of stone and the eyes of Ray Charles. It looks like they're actively trying to lose games out there. 

The only person with >4FGA that had a higher shooting percentage against Boise was Thatch and even he was only 3/6. Okoro and Forester took a combined 8 shots for a total of 6 points. Our sharpshooter Jimerson was 2/11 and didn't make a 3. Javonte was 0-4, Pickett only 2-6, Hargrove a modest 2-4. 

When the team shoots 18-58 and and 14-40 inside the arc you can't expect the pass-first point guard to do much more than rack up 17 points. In my view you're looking for reasons to crucify Yuri because he's typically so good that any time we're not it looks like his fault. He's not faultless, but he's far from the sole issue. 

Same issues with Iona. We shot 21/68 from the field. "You can lead a horse to water..." but you can't make him put a basketball through the f***ing hoop. Yuri was actually tied for highest shooting % on the team in that game and again, not every turnover was egregiously his fault. I can't count on two hands the number of times I've watched him slip a routine bounce pass on a pick and roll to FO/JF and they let it go right through their hands or even their legs. This is a problem, they're (majority of the time) not difficult passes. 

"Ford's roster construction relied on Yuri being an all american which was um....dumb." If I told you pre-season that Yuri would be averaging 12/11/4 on 40% shooting at this point in the year would you have thought 1) it was dumb to build around him or 2) we would be 7-4? What's dumb is thinking he's anything less than one of the best point guards in the country. We have a lot of problems with the team right now (hopefully a week off is time to resolve some/many/most/all of them) but all of those problems make a point guard's job way harder. 

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TL;DR - 

Yuri has his issues, but many of them are amplified by the issues of those around him. It's not fair to highlight him any more than the surplus of problems around him caused by the teammates that are drastically underachieving their individual expectations. 

IMO the only players who haven't disappointed are Thatch, Pickett, and probably Gibby. 

ALSO IMO - we're going to win 14(or+) games in conference play and be just fine. 

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Yuri is taking too many shots and turning it over too much. He hasn't been good. But he is our best player. The key to the season. Ford has to find a different way to get him going.

Jimerson draws the defense away and opens up the paint so he has value but he also has to start making shots. Ford needs to get him more open looks. Other than the A10 tourney game last year, Jimerson hasn't stepped up in big situations. He needs to now.

I don't really know about Thatch. He definitely hasn't disappointed but you kind of need him to step up and take on a bigger role than he is probably able to do. He's had more mental lapses this season than I can remember is my only real issue with him.

Pickett is perfectly fitting into the role as that last missing piece. But the problem is we inserted him into the missing piece role but then lost 2-3 other pieces along the way.

I think Perkins either needs to sit until January or he needs to come off the bench. Maybe his role is strictly to play once the other team goes to their bench. He is being bullied, he's tentative on both ends, and he just hasn't been good. You have to feel bad for him.

Okoro has been awful but I will say that our current offense seems to get Okoro and Forrester the ball in places that they aren't remotely good. Some of that is on them. They shouldn't be D1 basketball players with such big weaknesses but some of that is coaching/Yuri too.

Hargrove is good in spurts just like he has always been. If he plays 30 mins a night, it's probably night good. If he plays 20 or so minutes, I think he's really solid.

Parker is just going to take some time. I see some ability there but once again he's gotta make shots.

We needed a backup PG and still do.

I do think we beat Drake. A week to reset and Ford will have the team focused. It doesn't really matter though. Winning A10 games is the path to the tournament now. I still think we have the best team in the A10. Not sure if that will result in winning the A10 but that is still my expectation.

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18 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

Yuri is taking too many shots and turning it over too much. He hasn't been good. But he is our best player. The key to the season. Ford has to find a different way to get him going. (1)

Jimerson draws the defense away and opens up the paint so he has value but he also has to start making shots. Ford needs to get him more open looks. Other than the A10 tourney game last year, Jimerson hasn't stepped up in big situations. He needs to now. (2)

I don't really know about Thatch. He definitely hasn't disappointed but you kind of need him to step up and take on a bigger role than he is probably able to do. He's had more mental lapses this season than I can remember is my only real issue with him. (3)

Pickett is perfectly fitting into the role as that last missing piece. But the problem is we inserted him into the missing piece role but then lost 2-3 other pieces along the way. (4)

I think Perkins either needs to sit until January or he needs to come off the bench. Maybe his role is strictly to play once the other team goes to their bench. He is being bullied, he's tentative on both ends, and he just hasn't been good. You have to feel bad for him.

Okoro has been awful but I will say that our current offense seems to get Okoro and Forrester the ball in places that they aren't remotely good. Some of that is on them. They shouldn't be D1 basketball players with such big weaknesses but some of that is coaching/Yuri too. (5)

Hargrove is good in spurts just like he has always been. If he plays 30 mins a night, it's probably night good. If he plays 20 or so minutes, I think he's really solid. (6)

Parker is just going to take some time. I see some ability there but once again he's gotta make shots.

We needed a backup PG and still do. (7)

1) Most of the time that Yuri is shooting is when it's out of a last-resort absolute necessity. And in that scenario it will rarely be a good shot for anyone. How often have we seen him practically avoid shooting like it's the plague? Until everything is going wrong Yuri doesn't consider himself the first option, typically not the second third or even fourth, either. He has been very good, great even. He's also been bad, but only in situations where the rest of the team has also been very bad if not utterly f***ing terrible. It goes both ways IMO - a chicken or the egg situation.

2) I don't think Jimerson is built to be a primary scoring option and with the rest of the team performing like they have been what choice have we left him? Maybe what I'm saying is he's good enough to be the first scoring option, but he can't be the only scoring option and often if not regularly that's exactly what he's been. 

3) Thatch is the ultimate utility player and IMO that's exactly what he has been. And then some. I love backup PG Thatch and he's been very good at it all things considered. Pretty rare to find a guy that can basically play the 1-5. 

4) You're exactly right. I don't have the energy to quantify this claim but I'd wager that Pickett has been one of the most impactful transfers in the entire country. And he'll be a nightmare for A10 opponents.

5) Yes, we need to stop giving Okoro and Forrester the ball in the high post or beyond, we're really missing Linssen for that part of the playbook. We thought Forrester could've filled that role but so far absolutely not. The issue is that they've been bad from everywhere on the court. Within 15 feet, within 10 feet, within 5 feet...majorly ineffective, turnover prone, and totally incapable of making even layups. Those two are combining for like 4 turnovers/game and if you counted all of the turnovers that are credited to Yuri that are arguably their fault that number might double. Our front court has flown mostly under the radar but if you watch more closely they are far and away the biggest problem with this team. 

6) I don't think it's the # of minutes Hargrove gets but the situations in which he gets them. He's better than the amount of playing time he gets and so effective in so many ways, but so much of his PT comes in situations where we're down bad and his only hope is to stop the bleeding. He draws a lot of short straws and has an even shorter leash. 

7) We were never going to get a "backup PG" and it wouldn't have solved the issues we're having. There's no viable option to play behind someone that demands and deserves 33+ MPG - we saw that with Deandre last year. I think what we needed was a backup center...maybe a starting center. You could argue that we need a backup 2-3-4-5 because we are struggling just about everywhere right now.  


I know I'm ragging on Okoro but it's because I know - we all know - that he's soooooo much better than this. I think it's mostly mental issues, lack of confidence or something. We saw what he's capable of last year, but we also saw exactly what he's doing now in the first half of last year's season. I thought we were out of the woods with that version of Franco but he has regressed terribly and I truly think he deserves more blame than any individual player for our losses this year. His rebounding numbers look fine but it's not hard at 6'9" to rack up defensive boards. He's a combined 3-11 in our last three losses, 6-17 in the four of them. He's averaging 3 TO/G in the last three losses and again that number would be higher if he was blamed for the routine passes that hit him in the hands and he fails to catch them. If you picked ten different 6'9" guys off the street today at least 5 of them would average a double-double playing for this team. I don't get it and that needs to change immediately if we want to stand a chance against any significant level of competition. 

 

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There are a whole lot of good points in this thread. For me it seems like we have too many nice guys on this team. What I mean is that we don't have anyone with enough ball hog/give it to me/I am pissed if I get blocked/that's MY board personality. Also, there is too much Yuri watching during offensive sets and not enough guys busting their butts to get open.

I think Yuri works very hard to get the defenders to switch on screens with our bigs but, when we dump it in, the bigs are slow to take advantage. If the bigs were quicker to the rim and/or better kicking it out for open threes, this offense would be much more consistent. Two Linssen types would be great! So, it's up to the coaches to figure it out or change the offense.

 

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On 12/11/2022 at 3:07 PM, wgstl said:

We’re no better than we were last year. A part of my actually thinks we’re slightly worse. 

I disagree.

I think we are on track for the same non-con record as last year (9-4), with the same disappointing early December losses (2021: UAB and Belmont, 2022: Iona and Boise St.), but with an extra signature win against much better teams (2021: Boston College, 2022: Memphis, Providence).

So, on paper, this team is as good, if not a little better than last year at this point in the season. Obviously, we performed worse against Iona and Boise St. this year, but taken all together this is a stronger start to the season.  Nonetheless, we've put ourselves in a position where we need to finish 1st or at least tied for 2nd in the A10 to have an at-large shot. That means going 14-4 or better in conference play. A pretty narrow path.

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22 minutes ago, Compton said:

I disagree.

 we've put ourselves in a position where we need to finish 1st or at least tied for 2nd in the A10 to have an at-large shot. That means going 14-4 or better in conference play. A pretty narrow path.

OK, what you are saying after all the verbosity is that our chances of going to the dance have diminished significantly. A pretty narrow path indeed.

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10 hours ago, Compton said:

I disagree.

I think we are on track for the same non-con record as last year (9-4), with the same disappointing early December losses (2021: UAB and Belmont, 2022: Iona and Boise St.), but with an extra signature win against much better teams (2021: Boston College, 2022: Memphis, Providence).

So, on paper, this team is as good, if not a little better than last year at this point in the season. Obviously, we performed worse against Iona and Boise St. this year, but taken all together this is a stronger start to the season.  Nonetheless, we've put ourselves in a position where we need to finish 1st or at least tied for 2nd in the A10 to have an at-large shot. That means going 14-4 or better in conference play. A pretty narrow path.

We went 3-4 last year in our 7 key games (top100) teams, with a win against drake we would go 3-4 again against top 100 KP teams.  While currently KP has 22 higher on average than 21, it'll probably finish pretty close as auburn will take a tumble from where they are at currently.  So at the end of the day, when going back and forth on this, all I can say is at the very least its about dead even. That's still not good. And that's considering we beat Drake otherwise its a no brainer that this year is worse. 

Also the blowouts to Maryland and Iona should be looked at more closely than just oh well.  At least we had no major blowout last year other than @ Memphis by 16.

I'll settle that the teams are tied if they beat drake when comparing the last 2 seasons, but with a loss its not looking all that close. 

 

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33 minutes ago, wgstl said:

We went 3-4 last year in our 7 key games (top100) teams, with a win against drake we would go 3-4 again against top 100 KP teams.  While currently KP has 22 higher on average than 21, it'll probably finish pretty close as auburn will take a tumble from where they are at currently.  So at the end of the day, when going back and forth on this, all I can say is at the very least its about dead even. That's still not good. And that's considering we beat Drake otherwise its a no brainer that this year is worse. 

Also the blowouts to Maryland and Iona should be looked at more closely than just oh well.  At least we had no major blowout last year other than @ Memphis by 16.

I'll settle that the teams are tied if they beat drake when comparing the last 2 seasons, but with a loss its not looking all that close. 

 

The way I read this is that doing as well as last year is, in your mind, a sign that we are in acceptably good shape. We are not, your whole argument is based upon winning against Drake. Then, assuming we do win over Drake, we are so good that we can expect a slot in the NIT. This is just wonderful!

Is this thread about the average path to greatness or the average path to mediocrity? A bad result last year, a year we should have done better than we did, and ended by going to the NIT and playing a single game before being eliminated. You are willing to settle for that as as a suitable goal? Is this thread about the average path to greatness or the average path to mediocrity?

This is not about a glass half full, it is about a glass close to empty and then making up reasons why we should believe, or hope, or pray that it turns out to be half full. Please, please, please help us Jesus is what I hear.

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