Jump to content

The Bills over Boise by 3


The Wiz

Recommended Posts

 

Tough loss last night. The computer had it as a shaky win (1pt)...It definitely was shaky. Yet , even though the game got away from us , it was still a winnable game. In the wrap up on the Iona spread thread, I looked at one stat in the wrap...the slash. There were a lot of things that went wrong in that game...BUT...had we just shot an average Bills line ...not a great game ...but an average Bills shooting line...we would have had an additional 25 pts and won the game...Yes there were many TOs and blocks but even with those ...if we shoot and make it,  we win... and most of the missed shots were 2s...9 twos vs  2 threes.  So what does that mean.  It means we need to make shots. When we shot 9% on the FT line in the 2nd half against Auburn...did that mean we were a bad shooting FT team...No.  It means we had a bad shooting half.  Last night we shot 31/26/ 71...dismal...Are we a bad shooting team?...No...We can do much better than that and when we do we will win.

So now it is onto the Boise game...an A- team...better than Iona...a good bounce back game. Our trend line and our overall line have come together.  That means we have plateaued and this game will determine whether we trend up or down from this point. We started the season as a B+ team and after 9 games are still B+ . At some point , we need to get to A- and be there at the end of the season.  Plenty of time but the clock is ticking.

 

The 17 

We are 2-1 now with 14 to go....We are still favored to win in the remaining 14 games ...overall the computer thinks we may have 3 losses during this stretch...so maybe 2 more to go. It is this stretch of games that will make or break us...the computer says at this time ...it will make us.  So for  the hand wringers or the gloom and doom fans all is not lost...

Chance 2 Dance  

This topic is still here and that's a good sign...If we drop below 50% this section disappears.  We are currently at 51%...down 7%.  Because Boise is a better team than Iona a win would be a nice boost particularly if we win by more than 3.

Game Outlook

This is a borderline game (our chances are better than a shaky win). A game we should win if we make our slash.... They have a familiar look ...a so-so offense and a great defense. They are a small team with big guards.  Shaver is their Mr Boise...he leads in PPG, Rebs, Assts and Stls.  Depth issue...they play 7 players only 5 of which can score.

A quick look at the report card...

...................SLU....................BSU..........................SLU..........................BSU

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B+.......................C-..........................D...............................A

FG%...............C+.......................C...........................B+.............................A

3P%...............C.........................C+..........................C+............................A

FT%...............A-........................C+............................................................

Reb...............A.........................C+............................C.............................A

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....none............Def.....none

Down.........Off...PPG...FG%...3P%...FT%.....Def...PPG...FG%...3P%...Reb

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......132nd  all time D1 list

Reb...Okoro...54th...up

FT%...Parker...23rd...up

3PM...Jimerson...39th...dn

Dou Dou...Okoro & Pickett& Collins....tied 68th...dn...

Blks...Okoro ...38th...up

SLU...Rebs...16th

BSU

FT%...Rice ...83rd

Stls...Shaver...14th

A glaring gape in our report card is PPG/Def....In other words, we give up to many pts/gm.  We need to start bring down our opp pt totals...as in below 70pts.

Injury /illness report and misc

None

 

Keys to the game ...Make some shots. This would solve a lot of issues.  The bulk of the 3s should be Jimerson, Pickett and Thatch...in that order.  Inside the arc, make the bunnies. TOs down and rebs up.  Take advantage of their weak bench...when they make substitutions add on pts and widen the spread.

WWN2D2W...

Magic number 70....a successful game would be for the Bills to score more than 70 and the Broncos less than 70....Stop Shaver....hold him to 12 pts , 5 rebs and 1 stl. ...Hold their top 5 to 50 pts.....TOs..11,  protect the ball especially from Shaver... Win the reb battle by 3.  Our bench needs to dominate theirs,  scoring wise.

Bottom line....If we can make our slash, we should be able to corral the Broncos.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

 

Tough loss last night. The computer had it as a shaky win (1pt)...It definitely was shaky. Yet , even though the game got away from us , it was still a winnable game. In the wrap up on the Iona spread thread, I looked at one stat in the wrap...the slash. There were a lot of things that went wrong in that game...BUT...had we just shot an average Bills line ...not a great game ...but an average Bills shooting line...we would have had an additional 25 pts and won the game...Yes there were many TOs and blocks but even with those ...if we shoot and make it,  we win... and most of the missed shots were 2s...9 twos vs  2 threes.  So what does that mean.  It means we need to make shots. When we shot 9% on the FT line in the 2nd half against Auburn...did that mean we were a bad shooting FT team...No.  It means we had a bad shooting half.  Last night we shot 31/26/ 71...dismal...Are we a bad shooting team?...No...We can do much better than that and when we do we will win.

So now it is onto the Boise game...an A- team...better than Iona...a good bounce back game. Our trend line and our overall line have come together.  That means we have plateaued and this game will determine whether we trend up or down from this point. We started the season as a B+ team and after 9 games are still B+ . At some point , we need to get to A- and be there at the end of the season.  Plenty of time but the clock is ticking.

 

The 17 

We are 2-1 now with 14 to go....We are still favored to win in the remaining 14 games ...overall the computer thinks we may have 3 losses during this stretch...so maybe 2 more to go. It is this stretch of games that will make or break us...the computer says at this time ...it will make us.  So for  the hand wringers or the gloom and doom fans all is not lost...

Chance 2 Dance  

This topic is still here and that's a good sign...If we drop below 50% this section disappears.  We are currently at 51%...down 7%.  Because Boise is a better team than Iona a win would be a nice boost particularly if we win by more than 3.

Game Outlook

This is a borderline game (our chances are better than a shaky win). A game we should win if we make our slash.... They have a familiar look ...a so-so offense and a great defense. They are a small team with big guards.  Shaver is their Mr Boise...he leads in PPG, Rebs, Assts and Stls.  Depth issue...they play 7 players only 5 of which can score.

A quick look at the report card...

...................SLU....................BSU..........................SLU..........................BSU

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B+.......................C-..........................D...............................A

FG%...............C+.......................C...........................B+.............................A

3P%...............C.........................C+..........................C+............................A

FT%...............A-........................C+............................................................

Reb...............A.........................C+............................C.............................A

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....none............Def.....none

Down.........Off...PPG...FG%...3P%...FT%.....Def...PPG...FG%...3P%...Reb

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......132nd  all time D1 list

Reb...Okoro...54th...up

FT%...Parker...23rd...up

3PM...Jimerson...39th...dn

Dou Dou...Okoro & Pickett& Collins....tied 68th...dn...

Blks...Okoro ...38th...up

SLU...Rebs...16th

BSU

FT%...Rice ...83rd

Stls...Shaver...14th

A glaring gape in our report card is PPG/Def....In other words, we give up to many pts/gm.  We need to start bring down our opp pt totals...as in below 70pts.

Injury /illness report and misc

None

 

Keys to the game ...Make some shots. This would solve a lot of issues.  The bulk of the 3s should be Jimerson, Pickett and Thatch...in that order.  Inside the arc, make the bunnies. TOs down and rebs up.  Take advantage of their weak bench...when they make substitutions add on pts and widen the spread.

WWN2D2W...

Magic number 70....a successful game would be for the Bills to score more than 70 and the Broncos less than 70....Stop Shaver....hold him to 12 pts , 5 rebs and 1 stl. ...Hold their top 5 to 50 pts.....TOs..11,  protect the ball especially from Shaver... Win the reb battle by 3.  Our bench needs to dominate theirs,  scoring wise.

Bottom line....If we can make our slash, we should be able to corral the Broncos.

 

 

Keeping the faith! Keep hoop alive!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thank you Wiz, I thought we could win (and the stats indicated it was possible) against all of our 3 losses, but the opposite happened. I do not think there was a way to get a win out of Maryland or Iona looking at the way those games went. But, darned it all, the loss at Auburn should not have happened.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here we go against Boise. Both by the Wiz's model and by Team Rankings stats agree our strength is in offensive and Boise is better than we are in defense. I hope we do not see yet another game where Ford plays a defense game and gets crunched when the other team neutralizes Yuri. We shall see tonight. I know we can win but do not feel confident that we will.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/7/2022 at 9:19 PM, The Wiz said:

 

Tough loss last night. The computer had it as a shaky win (1pt)...It definitely was shaky. Yet , even though the game got away from us , it was still a winnable game. In the wrap up on the Iona spread thread, I looked at one stat in the wrap...the slash. There were a lot of things that went wrong in that game...BUT...had we just shot an average Bills line ...not a great game ...but an average Bills shooting line...we would have had an additional 25 pts and won the game...Yes there were many TOs and blocks but even with those ...if we shoot and make it,  we win... and most of the missed shots were 2s...9 twos vs  2 threes.  So what does that mean.  It means we need to make shots. When we shot 9% on the FT line in the 2nd half against Auburn...did that mean we were a bad shooting FT team...No.  It means we had a bad shooting half.  Last night we shot 31/26/ 71...dismal...Are we a bad shooting team?...No...We can do much better than that and when we do we will win.

So now it is onto the Boise game...an A- team...better than Iona...a good bounce back game. Our trend line and our overall line have come together.  That means we have plateaued and this game will determine whether we trend up or down from this point. We started the season as a B+ team and after 9 games are still B+ . At some point , we need to get to A- and be there at the end of the season.  Plenty of time but the clock is ticking.

 

The 17 

We are 2-1 now with 14 to go....We are still favored to win in the remaining 14 games ...overall the computer thinks we may have 3 losses during this stretch...so maybe 2 more to go. It is this stretch of games that will make or break us...the computer says at this time ...it will make us.  So for  the hand wringers or the gloom and doom fans all is not lost...

Chance 2 Dance  

This topic is still here and that's a good sign...If we drop below 50% this section disappears.  We are currently at 51%...down 7%.  Because Boise is a better team than Iona a win would be a nice boost particularly if we win by more than 3.

Game Outlook

This is a borderline game (our chances are better than a shaky win). A game we should win if we make our slash.... They have a familiar look ...a so-so offense and a great defense. They are a small team with big guards.  Shaver is their Mr Boise...he leads in PPG, Rebs, Assts and Stls.  Depth issue...they play 7 players only 5 of which can score.

A quick look at the report card...

...................SLU....................BSU..........................SLU..........................BSU

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B+.......................C-..........................D...............................A

FG%...............C+.......................C...........................B+.............................A

3P%...............C.........................C+..........................C+............................A

FT%...............A-........................C+............................................................

Reb...............A.........................C+............................C.............................A

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....none............Def.....none

Down.........Off...PPG...FG%...3P%...FT%.....Def...PPG...FG%...3P%...Reb

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......132nd  all time D1 list

Reb...Okoro...54th...up

FT%...Parker...23rd...up

3PM...Jimerson...39th...dn

Dou Dou...Okoro & Pickett& Collins....tied 68th...dn...

Blks...Okoro ...38th...up

SLU...Rebs...16th

BSU

FT%...Rice ...83rd

Stls...Shaver...14th

A glaring gape in our report card is PPG/Def....In other words, we give up to many pts/gm.  We need to start bring down our opp pt totals...as in below 70pts.

Injury /illness report and misc

None

 

Keys to the game ...Make some shots. This would solve a lot of issues.  The bulk of the 3s should be Jimerson, Pickett and Thatch...in that order.  Inside the arc, make the bunnies. TOs down and rebs up.  Take advantage of their weak bench...when they make substitutions add on pts and widen the spread.

WWN2D2W...

Magic number 70....a successful game would be for the Bills to score more than 70 and the Broncos less than 70....Stop Shaver....hold him to 12 pts , 5 rebs and 1 stl. ...Hold their top 5 to 50 pts.....TOs..11,  protect the ball especially from Shaver... Win the reb battle by 3.  Our bench needs to dominate theirs,  scoring wise.

Bottom line....If we can make our slash, we should be able to corral the Broncos.

 

 

We're screwed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, billikenblue said:

Let’s see if I can do what the Wiz does .,,if we hit our slash we win …if we didn’t that’s why we lost .  Not sure why everyone thinks this such a brilliant analysis every game . It’s called BASKET ball for a reason …

?? I'm always confused at the people who oppose the wiz.... Like just relax.

It's a make or miss game. I enjoy the wiz if you don't just don't bother. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, RiseOfTheBillikens said:

?? I'm always confused at the people who oppose the wiz.... Like just relax.

It's a make or miss game. I enjoy the wiz if you don't just don't bother. 

The Wiz always tells us WWNTDTW and when we don't, we don't. When we do, we do. His analysis is usually spot on for what we have to do to make the margins. Leave the Wiz alone, he's a good poster and contributor.

CenHudDude likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not that I have any experience at all in following other schools basketball fan message boards, but I do have experience with models, statistics, and probability. Having the Wiz posting in this board is a privilege that I honestly believe other schools fan message boards lack. We should be grateful that the WIZ shares freely the results of his work with us. Just in case anyone in this board is ignorant enough that really does not know, a probability of winning a game by 3 points indicates that the two schools playing this particular game are very close to one another and either one can easily win the game.

We should have won this game, as we should have won against Iona, and Auburn. We just happen to have problems closing games and lose instead.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last night we shot 31/26/ 71...dismal...Are we a bad shooting team?...No...We can do much better than that and when we do we will win.

This is a quote from my original post in this thread...This quote is not about the Boise game  but was about the Iona game.  In the Boise game we actually shot worse...31/ 26/75.   We shot 9 baskets below Billiken normal...three 3s and six 2s were missing. ...21pts...What should have been a double digit win turned into a loss.  Teams go into slumps as do players. Jimerson  shot 2-11 tonight and was 0-5 from the arc. I am not picking on him. I consider him one of the best shooters in D1 basketball. But if he were here now , I am sure he would be the first to admit he had a bad game tonight.  The point is even with the bad game he remains an elite shooter who will come out of the funk and start knocking down baskets.  On the plus side, Thatch and Hargrove both had good games shooting 50% from the field.

Shooting is the issue right now.  Again we don't need spectacular games where the slash adds up to 180...just normal average shooting and we will win almost every time.  We are close ...it won't take much to turn it around , just make a few shots. We have done it before and we can do it again. In addition, I thought the defense was good tonight.

Is all lost? Nope...If we finish in the top 4 in the A-10...we are still showing as the #1 team...we will still have an excellent chance to dance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I want to add my 2 cents worth to what you just said Wiz. Both Thatch and Hargrove shot 50% from the field. Yuri shot 31%, yet Yuri shot 16 attempted FGs and Thatch  and Hargrove together only shot 10 attempted field goals. Yuri was in charge to distributing the ball to players that could shoot, why did he get 16 shots for himself while Thatch and Hargrove, which were shooting a lot better than he was, only got a total of 10 attempts? Obviously, because Yuri was not passing the ball to them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...