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The Bills over Iona by 1


The Wiz

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Well, this an important day ...the arrival of the NET.  Now we can all know what's happening.  (Too lazy to hit the blue font). Let's start with the basics. What does NET stand for???  It is an acronym for NCAA Evaluation  Tool.  This thing is a Tool.  You now know everything you need to know about the NET.  If you need more you can read my post on the NET thread.

Let's get on to the good stuff...

Chance 2 Dance  

The win over SIU by an extra 6 pts gave us a small pop. We now show a 58% C2D...up 6%.  Good time to check how we are doing for the long term. At the beginning of the season, I had said we were a B+ team with an 86% C2D.  After 8 games , using real data, we are up to A- (from B+ ) and still have an 86% C2D.  Again the difference between the 2 percentages are the first one is one you will see every thread and is the chance we have  if the Committee chose today. The higher % is the computer playing out the season and then looking at our chances.  Not quite what the NET does( what does the NET do?)  but that's a good thing.

The 17

2 down...15 to go...Next up Iona...While the computer talked about The Bills as being favored in these 17 games (different than winning 17 in a row) this is one of the games that the computer had marked as shaky win.... and thus a 1 pt spread. Let's see why...

Game Outlook

Outside of the 4 big games we played in Nov this will be one of our toughest games of the season. Let's take a look at Iona ( a B+ team) and see what we are dealing with. First of all , while SLU has a full data set (8 games) Iona does not ...only 6  played.  So they still have some fuzzy numbers. Now lets take a look at the strengths and weaknesses.

Strengths...

Good players...see report card below

Outstanding coach...one of the winningest in history

At home...they are very difficult to beat at home.

TOs...They don't give them ...but they take them

Weaknesses...

Weak schedule... D rated schedule ...we will be their 1st major test.

Lack of depth...See keys to the game below

Big injury...again see keys

A quick look at the report card...

...................SLU....................Iona..........................SLU..........................Iona

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A-.......................B............................D+...........................B+

FG%...............B........................B+...........................A-.............................B

3P%..............C+.......................B+...........................B-............................B-

FT%...............A.........................A-...............................................................

Reb...............A.........................D+............................B-.............................C-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....PPG...FG%............Def.....Reb

Down.........Off...none.....Def...3P%...FG%

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......139th  all time D1 list

Reb...Okoro...79th...dn

FT%...Parker...28th...up

3PM...Jimerson...38th...up

Dou Dou...Okoro & Pickett...tied 65th...dn...Collins...new

Blks...Okoro ...51st...up

Iona

PPG...Jenkins...67th

Assts...Jenkins...63rd

FG%...JeanLouis...32nd

Stls...Clayton...55th

Blks...Joesph...48th

FT%...Clayton...1st

Injury /illness report and misc

Iona...Slazinski...Out indefinitely...Ankle...Missed the last 4 games...uncertain when he will return.

Keys to the game ...

Iona ...lack of depth...they have lots of players and we will see many but the starting 5 are the scorers and the rest are mainly defensive players who are there to wear the other team down...and now the starting 5 is down to 4 ...Slazinski is a big loss to them. A top scorer and rebounder....hard to replace. The computer sees that Iona will be able to cover the missing rebounds but there are 10 points that will be difficult  to make up. So there is the possibility for us to break this game open particularly if we can make our slash line. The computer has made an adjustment for the loss of Slazinski  but because he hasn't played many games and Iona hasn't played many either...the adjustment isn't an exact fit. And of course Pitino is the master at mix and match. But Pitino is not a magician...so while the computer's most likely outcome is a close game there is a path for a Bills double digit win. Another key to the game is rebounding ...we need to dominate. And finally ...last but certainly not least is TOs...Iona is 4th ITN in TOs...they give up 9/game...if you do 9 in 1 game you have had a great game...if you are averaging 9 in all games that is fantastic. On the other side they force TOs so it is a bad combo for opponents.  Net gain on TOs of 7 which is a huge amount to overcome....Bills will have to protect the ball and bother them at the same time.

 WWN2D2W...Protect the ball...we need to stay within 2 TOs of them. Dominate the boards...Bills by 8 rebs...Make the slash...48/36/78...Hold them to 70 pts...Hold their top 4 scores to 38pts...They will probably go with a 10 man lineup...I said they don't have depth not that they don't have people ...those 6 subs are in there to wear us down so Iona can pounce on us in the 4th quarter.  When they start to sub open up a lead...and then brace for the rush in the 4th quarter and hold your ground.

Bottom line....They are very good team on offense and defense.  SIU was a very good defensive team (at least as good as Iona) and we scored 85 against them. The difference is Iona has a better offense than the Salukis.  We will have to protect the ball...we will have to make some shots  and we will have to play our game...This game could be decided by a FT or a TO.  The computer will be our friend if we win this one.  Our motto for this game should be "I own a them"...Ok I am a done.

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45 minutes ago, CenHudDude said:

Also to be considered is that they have won 18 straight in their home “arena” which is a glorified high school gym with a seating capacity of only 2500.  To make matters worse, tonight is a white out game for them.  Make those free throws Billikens!

One thing that's interesting is that Pitino has tried to play most of their "big home games" outside their home facility. That number may be misleading, much like a P5 school having a long non-con home streak.

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11 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Well, this an important day ...the arrival of the NET.  Now we can all know what's happening.  (Too lazy to hit the blue font). Let's start with the basics. What does NET stand for???  It is an acronym for NCAA Evaluation  Tool.  This thing is a Tool.  You now know everything you need to know about the NET.  If you need more you can read my post on the NET thread.

Let's get on to the good stuff...

Chance 2 Dance  

The win over SIU by an extra 6 pts gave us a small pop. We now show a 58% C2D...up 6%.  Good time to check how we are doing for the long term. At the beginning of the season, I had said we were a B+ team with an 86% C2D.  After 8 games , using real data, we are up to A- (from B+ ) and still have an 86% C2D.  Again the difference between the 2 percentages are the first one is one you will see every thread and is the chance we have  if the Committee chose today. The higher % is the computer playing out the season and then looking at our chances.  Not quite what the NET does( what does the NET do?)  but that's a good thing.

The 17

2 down...15 to go...Next up Iona...While the computer talked about The Bills as being favored in these 17 games (different than winning 17 in a row) this is one of the games that the computer had marked as shaky win.... and thus a 1 pt spread. Let's see why...

Game Outlook

Outside of the 4 big games we played in Nov this will be one of our toughest games of the season. Let's take a look at Iona ( a B+ team) and see what we are dealing with. First of all , while SLU has a full data set (8 games) Iona does not ...only 6  played.  So they still have some fuzzy numbers. Now lets take a look at the strengths and weaknesses.

Strengths...

Good players...see report card below

Outstanding coach...one of the winningest in history

At home...they are very difficult to beat at home.

TOs...They don't give them ...but they take them

Weaknesses...

Weak schedule... D rated schedule ...we will be their 1st major test.

Lack of depth...See keys to the game below

Big injury...again see keys

A quick look at the report card...

...................SLU....................Iona..........................SLU..........................Iona

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A-.......................B............................D+...........................B+

FG%...............B........................B+...........................A-.............................B

3P%..............C+.......................B+...........................B-............................B-

FT%...............A.........................A-...............................................................

Reb...............A.........................D+............................B-.............................C-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....PPG...FG%............Def.....Reb

Down.........Off...none.....Def...3P%...FG%

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......139th  all time D1 list

Reb...Okoro...79th...dn

FT%...Parker...28th...up

3PM...Jimerson...38th...up

Dou Dou...Okoro & Pickett...tied 65th...dn...Collins...new

Blks...Okoro ...51st...up

Iona

PPG...Jenkins...67th

Assts...Jenkins...63rd

FG%...JeanLouis...32nd

Stls...Clayton...55th

Blks...Joesph...48th

FT%...Clayton...1st

Injury /illness report and misc

Iona...Slazinski...Out indefinitely...Ankle...Missed the last 4 games...uncertain when he will return.

Keys to the game ...

Iona ...lack of depth...they have lots of players and we will see many but the starting 5 are the scorers and the rest are mainly defensive players who are there to wear the other team down...and now the starting 5 is down to 4 ...Slazinski is a big loss to them. A top scorer and rebounder....hard to replace. The computer sees that Iona will be able to cover the missing rebounds but there are 10 points that will be difficult  to make up. So there is the possibility for us to break this game open particularly if we can make our slash line. The computer has made an adjustment for the loss of Slazinski  but because he hasn't played many games and Iona hasn't played many either...the adjustment isn't an exact fit. And of course Pitino is the master at mix and match. But Pitino is not a magician...so while the computer's most likely outcome is a close game there is a path for a Bills double digit win. Another key to the game is rebounding ...we need to dominate. And finally ...last but certainly not least is TOs...Iona is 4th ITN in TOs...they give up 9/game...if you do 9 in 1 game you have had a great game...if you are averaging 9 in all games that is fantastic. On the other side they force TOs so it is a bad combo for opponents.  Net gain on TOs of 7 which is a huge amount to overcome....Bills will have to protect the ball and bother them at the same time.

 WWN2D2W...Protect the ball...we need to stay within 2 TOs of them. Dominate the boards...Bills by 8 rebs...Make the slash...48/36/78...Hold them to 70 pts...Hold their top 4 scores to 38pts...They will probably go with a 10 man lineup...I said they don't have depth not that they don't have people ...those 6 subs are in there to wear us down so Iona can pounce on us in the 4th quarter.  When they start to sub open up a lead...and then brace for the rush in the 4th quarter and hold your ground.

Bottom line....They are very good team on offense and defense.  SIU was a very good defensive team (at least as good as Iona) and we scored 85 against them. The difference is Iona has a better offense than the Salukis.  We will have to protect the ball...we will have to make some shots  and we will have to play our game...This game could be decided by a FT or a TO.  The computer will be our friend if we win this one.  Our motto for this game should be "I own a them"...Ok I am a done.

-thanks Wiz, great stuff, I wonder if it makes sense to add Turnovers to the list of PPG, FG%, 3PT%, FT% and Reb? they can be game changers 

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3 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Slazinski is a huge loss for Iona.  6'9" 215 lb inside presence who has only played two games this season, averaging 18.0 and 7.5.  They will press us all game, but there should be openings in the paint for Okoro and Forrester.

Looking at the numbers Slazinski isn't really an inside presence.  Last year he shot 106 3 pointers at 34% and 134 2 pointers at 40%.  This season he's at 14 3s at 36% and 16 2s at 44%.

Nelly Junior Joseph is their inside guy.  6'9" 240.  Almost never shoots 3s.  Okoro and Forrester need to make him work and/or get him in foul trouble.  Their other inside guys are 7 footers (a senior & freshman) who don't play much.

Refs calling this game tight especially on the perimeter would be really beneficial for SLU.  They are a Pitino coached team, so we know they'll be pressing / clutching & grabbing.  They have a big drop off on offense if we get some starters in foul trouble.  

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17 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

Looking at the numbers Slazinski isn't really an inside presence.  Last year he shot 106 3 pointers at 34% and 134 2 pointers at 40%.  This season he's at 14 3s at 36% and 16 2s at 44%.

Nelly Junior Joseph is their inside guy.  6'9" 240.  Almost never shoots 3s.  Okoro and Forrester need to make him work and/or get him in foul trouble.  Their other inside guys are 7 footers (a senior & freshman) who don't play much.

Refs calling this game tight especially on the perimeter would be really beneficial for SLU.  They are a Pitino coached team, so we know they'll be pressing / clutching & grabbing.  They have a big drop off on offense if we get some starters in foul trouble.  

Having bigs who also shoot three's isn't unusual (unless you are a Billiken big!)  Slazinski not playing tonight is definitely in our favor. 

I am expecting a very competitive game tonight. 

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2 hours ago, Cowboy II said:

-thanks Wiz, great stuff, I wonder if it makes sense to add Turnovers to the list of PPG, FG%, 3PT%, FT% and Reb? they can be game changers 

TOs are important...Important enough to include in the WWN2D2W section regularly and if they require a special mention like they do in this case  (4th ITN) I also put that in.  It is definitely a big key to this game and ties in with their pressure defense. As I mentioned in the original thread , there are 4 starters (the 5th starter is one of the subs) and 6 subs.  Those subs are there to wear us down and then with about 10-13  minutes left in the game,  the pressure and sometimes the speed will intensify. We can handle it as long as we know its coming and have planned accordingly.

If our shooting is on tonight (make the slash) and protect the ball, we could widen the spread to double  digits.  Should be a good game.

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1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

TOs are important...Important enough to include in the WWN2D2W section regularly and if they require a special mention like they do in this case  (4th ITN) I also put that in.  It is definitely a big key to this game and ties in with their pressure defense. As I mentioned in the original thread , there are 4 starters (the 5th starter is one of the subs) and 6 subs.  Those subs are there to wear us down and then with about 10-13  minutes left in the game,  the pressure and sometimes the speed will intensify. We can handle it as long as we know its coming and have planned accordingly.

If our shooting is on tonight (make the slash) and protect the ball, we could widen the spread to double  digits.  Should be a good game.

-got it, thank you

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I will try to make this as painless and simple as possible....1 stat

Bolded statement from the original post...

Make the slash...48/36/78 ... .This was the actual slash from tonight...30.9/ 26.3/ 71.4.....And here is what we need to add to the actual to get to the forecasted slash in bold....

9 more 2s =18 pts

2 more  3s=  6 pts

1 more FT= 1 pt

Total extra pts=25 pts....potential victory

BTW...the forecasted slash is The Bills average game slash...The Bills didn't need to do anything extraordinary today.  They just need to shoot their regular slash. Had they just played an average game on the slash alone they win by 3.

So simple ...yet so hard

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1 minute ago, The Wiz said:

I will try to make this as painless and simple as possible....1 stat

Bolded statement from the original post...

Make the slash...48/36/78 ... .This was the actual slash from tonight...30.9/ 26.3/ 71.4.....And here is what we need to add to the actual to get to the forecasted slash in bold....

9 more 2s =18 pts

2 more  3s=  6 pts

1 more FT= 1 pt

Total extra pts=25 pts....potential victory

BTW...the forecasted slash is The Bills average game slash...The Bills didn't need to do anything extraordinary today.  They just need to shoot their regular slash. Had they just played an average game on the slash alone they win by 3.

So simple ...yet so hard

Won't you you look down upon me Jesus?  You've got to help me make a stand  Sweet dreams and flying machines in pieces on the ground..............

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4 minutes ago, Billiken Rich said:

Won't you you look down upon me Jesus?  You've got to help me make a stand  Sweet dreams and flying machines in pieces on the ground..............

I have seen sunny days that I thought would never end....

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57 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I will try to make this as painless and simple as possible....1 stat

Bolded statement from the original post...

Make the slash...48/36/78 ... .This was the actual slash from tonight...30.9/ 26.3/ 71.4.....And here is what we need to add to the actual to get to the forecasted slash in bold....

9 more 2s =18 pts

2 more  3s=  6 pts

1 more FT= 1 pt

Total extra pts=25 pts....potential victory

BTW...the forecasted slash is The Bills average game slash...The Bills didn't need to do anything extraordinary today.  They just need to shoot their regular slash. Had they just played an average game on the slash alone they win by 3.

So simple ...yet so hard

Someone needs to create a machine learning approach to reff’ing basketball. At the very least, an imaging approach could be used to show inconsistent reff’ing. I would really love to see the results, because I feel like I see inconsistent calls often. I also feel like people tell themselves that they are not seeing it to meet a confirmation bias . I would just really love to see a more objective take on it. Hmm. It actually can’t be that hard to achieve…

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Broken dreams and expectations are always hard to take. I think Iona managed to neutralize Yuri and disrupt his game severely enough to break the team's cohesion and play. Did they have their big guy guarding Yuri? As I have said, neutralize Yuri's effective control of the Bills and win. I agree, Yuri had 14 pts but only 2 rebounds, 4 assists, and had 5 TOs. He was not totally blocked but I think they managed to neutralize Yuri's effective control of the team in this game. Quoting Ford, the team's cohesion fell apart.

James Taylor song is very appropriate for tonight.

 

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8 hours ago, Slu let the dogs out? said:

I’d rather watch the Iona game again than listen to one James Taylor song. Less depressing. 

Amen to that, James Taylor is always grating to me.

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