The Wiz Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 This will be a longer post than usual because we are now transitioning from 1 phase of the schedule to another. We have just completed the toughest phase (our last 4 D1 games) . The computer picked us to go 2-2 in this section and we did. This means we are on track with the forecast. We currently are an A- team even after the painful loss last night. Let's start with my final paragraph in the Aub post game wrap up...... ".....Auburn's poor offense tried to give us the game and we refused to take it. You make the mistakes or learn to take the pressure of the upper level teams in Nov so you can play better in March. We finish the toughest part of our schedule (the last 4 games)....2-2 which is what the computer predicted. Painful now but good if we learn from it. This game was more of a battle than the Md game and Aub is the better team and we almost beat them at their place. We have learned and grown." Many have said we are a good team, not a great team. I can agree with that...for now. A couple of questions...What is considered a great team?...Many say if you are in the Top 25 you are great. For now we will go with that...it is simple and easy. The next question is... how close are we to being a great team? Yesterday , we were the better team against a 13th ranked opponent for 38min 2 sec or 95.1% of the game. My answer to the question is ...we are within 5% of greatness. The last 5% of any difficult task is always the hardest but I believe we can do it . Why? Let's move onto the next section of our schedule to find out why....The 17 The 17 We have a couple of more games to go before we reach a real data sample size. However we are far enough along the way to spot some developing trends . One that I have noticed is very unusual. A trend I haven't seen in a decade. The 17. The computer is showing that we will be favored to win in the next 17 games. Now before someone comes back to me after a loss and says ..."you promised 17 wins"...let me point out something . Being favored to win is different than winning 17 in a row. Our chances to beat Tenn St on Wed are 97%. if we played Ternn St for the next 17 games in a row , the computer would have The Bills favored in all 17. However our chances to win 17 in a row even at a 97% sure thing would only be about 60%. With that said the computer puts out a cautionary warning on 3 games....3 games it has in the shaky win category....Iona (Bills by 2.41)...UMass (Bills by 0.26) and Dav (Bills by 2.72)... Still 17 projected wins is significant...Summary...If we win all or almost all of the 17 , we will be in fine shape at the end of the season. Chance 2 Dance 56%...we are up about 3%...again as long as we do what we are supposed to do we won't change much. We need to start beating all teams soundly (ie exceeding spreads and winning games where we are not favored )but in the end the key word is winning. Another clarification ....In the preseason forecast , I had us at 86% C2D...that number is still about the same. The number you see from thread to thread (for example....the 56% is today's C2D...that is if the season ended today our C2D would be 56%. The 86% chance is a season long projection overall. Now on to the TSU game. Let's start with the report card ...................SLU....................TSU..........................SLU..........................TSU .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B+.......................C+............................D............................C- FG%...............B........................C-.............................A-............................C 3P%..............C+........................C..............................B-...........................B- FT%...............A-......................D-................................................................. Reb...............A.........................D+.............................D+...........................D OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....Reb.............Def.....FG%...3P% Down.........Off...PPG...FG%...3P%...FT%...Def...Reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch Reb...Okoro...43rd...dn.... FT%...Parker...51st...up.... 3PM...Jimerson...15th...up Dou Dou...Okoro & Pickett...tied 42nd...dn TnSt Brown...3P%...31st Makuoi...FG%...38th This week the report card shows the offense went down but the defense went up....In the past when the offense went up the defense went down. The good news is we can play good offense and good defense. The bad news is we don't seem to be able to do them together. We need to learn to chew gum and walk at the same time....which I think we will as time goes on. Injury /illness report and misc None Keys to the game.....While this should be a relatively easy game there are a few issues. TnSt is a D+ team. But they have a few good players who if left alone can cause us some problems. Brown is a good shooter. He can shoot from anywhere on the court. He is 31st ITN in 3P%. Their go to guy is Clay ...he will take the most shots. And finally their big guy Adong Makuoi...38th ITN in FG%...he will be looking for put backs and bunnies. TnSt has a better offense than Aub BUT their defense can't hold a candle to them. We could win this game by just running up the score and overwhelming them but I hope we don't. This would be a great game to play good offense AND defense. We could still win by a big margin but in addition we could gain some balance in our game to carry forward. WWN2D2W...Hold their top 3 players to 33pts. ....Defend the rim, particularly against Makuoi...hold him to single digits. TOs..11...let's also try to force some opp TOs.. 11...we need to dominate the boards...win this by 9 rebs...make some shots, target slash...48/38/80 Bottom line....Let's win this by 18 by playing a complete game. It's time we grab this Tiger by the tail and start a long winning streak....no more pussyfooting around. CenHudDude, billikenbill, BrettJollyComedyHour and 1 other like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 -17, interesting, btw #18 is at SVU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Hopefully, by the time we get to SVU we will not only be favored, but win. slu72 likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 i want to see young hughes and young thames playing 10+ minutes wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOSLU68 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 I would like to see 7 to eight good minutes from Perkins each half- to me he looks fragile and I am hoping he can build himself up as the season goes on. However, in past it seemed that most players lose weight and possibly strength as they grind out the next three and one half months of play. I do note occasionally we get a player like French or Newsome who seem to add pounds and you half to wonder if they picked up a part time job at A-B Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Team rankings gives a spread of 20 pts in favor of SLU to win this game with 4 stars of confidence. Again a very close spread to the Wiz's model. We have to go over the spread in this one to move forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnkielBreakers Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Hello everyone, I would like to begin a new tradition in the Wiz’s posts. I will be providing my own analysis and prognostication for the game. However, my analysis will drawn exclusively from Astrology… rgbilliken and BrettJollyComedyHour like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said: Hello everyone, I would like to begin a new tradition in the Wiz’s posts. I will be providing my own analysis and prognostication for the game. However, my analysis will drawn exclusively from Astrology… That will be interesting. Did you know that there are "expert" market advisors that base their suggestions for buys and sells entirely upon astrology? These people actually make money, not so sure their clients do the same. I have no idea about who buys astronomical based market advise, but enough people do to keep these "experts" alive. However, if it works in the market, it might also work in sports, who knows? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettJollyComedyHour Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 26 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said: Hello everyone, I would like to begin a new tradition in the Wiz’s posts. I will be providing my own analysis and prognostication for the game. However, my analysis will drawn exclusively from Astrology… I'm a Leo, what can you tell me? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 I guess this was a Wiz 1...Wiz within 1 . But more importantly we get a much needed win by a big margin. This win puts us back on track and for those that have been following along ...win #1 of 17. Let's take a look and see what happened tonight.... Of course , the big news was the 20 assists Yuri got tonight with only 1 TO ...not a bad ratio. The 20 tied an A-10 conf record. Check The YAWN later today for the latest assist news. Looks like I started it at a good time. Other highlights were Okoro had 4 blks and Pickett had 3 steals, while Pickett and Perkins tied for high scorer with 15 pts. Time to review the forecast......bolded from the original post... The Bills over TnSt by 18...this was a leaner in horseshoes The 17... #1 Their go to guy is Clay ...he will take the most shots. ...He was and he did ...the good news was he shot only 31% from the field and only 22% from the arc Hold their top 3 players to 33pts... almost...their top 3 scored 37...10, 10 and 17..the 17 was by Clay...so even though we stopped Clay percentage wise (see above) he took so many shots that he still exceeded by 7pts.... still a good job by our D TOs..11...let's also try to force some opp TOs.. 11... this was a pass ...we had an excellent season low of 8 and while we missed by 1 on the opp TO (10) this was still a pass too in that we undercut them by 2 (8 to 10) we need to dominate the boards...win this by 9 rebs ...another winner -Bills by 14 ...including a season high 17 Off rebs which led to a staggering 50-26 pts in the paint...ball game target slash...48/38/80 ...Very close...we needed 2 more 2s(missed bunnies) and we made an extra FT (90%...yay) The good news is we can play good offense and good defense. The bad news is we don't seem to be able to do them together. We need to learn to chew gum and walk at the same time ...we did both tonight ...a slow start but we came on strong and did what we were supposed to do...let's keep it going BuiltFordBills, Bay Area Billiken and drkelsey55 like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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