Jump to content

Aub over The Bills by 7


The Wiz

Recommended Posts

This is game 4 of the 4 consecutive toughest D1 games of the season. And this is the toughest of the 4 games. We are 2-1 at this point. A win and we would be in excellent shape. A loss and we would be where the computer expected us to be at this time of the season....On track with more work to do but with the worst behind us. For those that are wringing their hands and saying this game is a definite loss, it just isn't true.  Let's start by looking at the last game Aub played against Nwestern. ...a 1 pt win for Aub. The thing that is interesting is NW is even with The Bills ...I plugged NW in with the Bills on neutral ground and we came up even. What this means is that a team just like the Bills played Aub and played them about even.  One difference is that this game will be at Aub instead of away as it was with the NW game. But the fact remains , that unranked  NW played the 13th ranked Tigers even. Which brings up another point ...Aub has some weaknesses...The computer feels that Aub is over hyped at this point. While it feels they are a good team with a grade of A (we are now at B+),  it doesn't feel they are even a top 30 team at this point. Computer says ...they can be had.

Chance 2 Dance

53%...about the same as before the Prov game (55%) ...It didn't change much because we did what we were supposed to do.

 

Let's take a look at the report card

 
...................SLU....................Aub..........................SLU..........................Aub

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A........................D+............................D............................A

FG%...............B+......................D-...........................B+............................A

3P%..............B-........................F..............................C+...........................A+...10th  ITN

FT%...............A+...7th ITN......D.................................................................

Reb...............A-........................A.............................C...........................C+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off...PPG...FG%...FT%...Reb.............Def.....none

Down.........Off...none...Def...PPG

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch

Reb...Okoro...39th...dn....

3PM...Jimerson...21st......dn

Blks...Okoro...74th...side note...Carte' Are Gordon(Gramb) tied with Okoro

FT%...Parker...93rd...up....side note...Phillip Russell (SEMO)...67th

Aub

Blks....Cardwell...6th

 

Injury /illness report and misc

The Bills

Thatch 11/24/22...Ques...undisclosed injury...Uncertain if he will be available for the Aub game.

Keys to the game.....This game will be similar to the Md game in terms of what we are up against. A great defense and a weak offense...although Md offense came to life against us. What we learned(hopefully) from Md is even if a team has a weak offense ...if you don't guard them they will score.

A disturbing stat is TOs...On the surface we look pretty food on protecting the ball with a stellar A- grade on TOs(11). The problem is we don't force other teams to turn it over ...with an F grade we are one of the worst in opp TOs  with a 18th Worst ITN.. This ties into the guarding issue...we need to pressure them.

Shooting...we have to make some shots especially 3s...Jimerson's hitting but the rest ...not so much.

Opp PPG...this number has to come down...grade D is unacceptable....see Defense statements above.

Magic number is 72...if we score 72 or above ...good chance to win...if we hold them to 72 or less good chance to win

Intensity...We need to start the game with a bang...knock them back on their heels ....Play like there is one minute left in a close game except do that in the 1st minute.

WWN2D2W...Hold their top 3 guys to under 30 pts combined. Target slash...50/40/80...make some 3s...Rebs ...win the reb battle...TOs 11...score at least 72 pts.

Bottom line....This game is winnable but we need to bring our A game ...on offense and defense ...for 40 mins

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Westy03 said:

Good stuff wiz. Although it’s only 2% why did our chance to dance go down after beating Providence?  

Good question....While we did what we were supposed to do win and spread wise with Prov...a few teams did better and moved ahead of us lowering our chances for a Chance to Dance.  Our C2D moves  even when we don't play as other teams move around and continue to surprise or disappoint. 

Another factor is there tends to be more volatility (surprises...up and down ) in the 1st 8 games as real data continues to appear and replace preseason forecasted data. While there will always be "surprises" as the season progresses things tend to settle down as we pass the 8th game. ...in the Bills case the SIU game. The 8th games is the point at which I switch over to all real data.  Theoretically, after that point, the computer should become more accurate with each game or less volatile.  Less volatile in this definition means more accurate spreads and less upset surprises.

Finally, the data is shaping up in an interesting way so far and I think the computer may have a surprise after the Aub game ...win or lose.  It should show up when I do the Tenn St game (the game following the Aub game)...stay tuned.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let me present my TR derived Stats. It is correct that Auburn (SEC) has 0 6-0 record. As per TR they are ranked 26 overall. The schools they have won over have the following TR rankings: 1 school in the top 100, 3 schools between 100 and 200 ranking, 2 schools over the 200 ranking. Looking at the spreads, Auburn has gone under the spread 3 times. The three times they went to win but did not make the spread were the following:

1. S. Florida, rank 188, American League. Auburn won 9 pts under the spread. Looking at the Stats, Auburn had better Offensive stats in 7 categories vs 1 for SF. Better  Defensive stats in 7 categories vs 1 for SF. Auburn  won the game by 8 pts. Considering the difference in ranking and the better stats for Auburn, SF did a very good job.

2. TX Southern, rank 244, SWAC League. Auburn won by 8 pts under the spread. Looking at the Stats, Auburn had better Offensive stats in all categories vs none for TX  Southern. Better Defensive stats in 6 categories vs 1 for TX Southern. Auburn won the game by 16 pts.  Considering the difference in ranking and the better stats for Auburn, TX Southern did a very good job.

3. Northwestern, rank 60, Big 10 League. Auburn won, barely, by 7 pts under the spread. Looking at the Stats, Auburn had better Offensive stats in 7 categories vs 1 for Northwestern. Better Defensive stats in 4 categories vs 3 for Northwestern. Auburn won the game by 1 pt. 

Now let's look at SLU, we have a 5-1 record. As per TR we are ranked 58 overall. The schools we have won over or even with the spread have the following TR rankings: 2 schools in the top 100, 1 schools between 100 and 200 ranking, 1 school over the 200 ranking, 1 school not in D1. We lost to 1 school in the top 100. Looking at the spreads, SLU has gone even with the spread once, and under the spread 2 times, including the game we lost. We lost one game to a school rated 16, Big 10. The 2 times we went under the spread, including the lost game, were the following:

1. Evansville, rank 293, MVC League. We won by 5 pts under the spread. Looking at the Stats, Evansville had better Offensive stats in 0 categories vs 8 for SLU. Better Defensive stats in 3 categories vs 4 for SLU. SLU won the game by 18 pts.

2. Maryland, rank 16 Big 10. We lost by 21 pts under the spread. Looking at the Stats, Maryland had better Offensive stats in 4 categories vs 4 for SLU. Better Defensive stats in 6 categories vs 1 for SLU. SLU lost the game by 18 pts.

3. We went even with the spread in the game against Providence, rank 91, Big East. Looking at the Stats, Providence had better Offensive stats in 3 categories vs 5 for Northwestern. Better Defensive stats in 5 categories vs 2 for SLU. SLU won the game by 1 pt.

So, now we are going to face Auburn tomorrow, with its 26 rank, SEC. I have no spread yet but I have stats to compare. Looking at the Stats, Auburn ha better Offensive stats in 4 categories vs 4 for SLU. Better Defensive stats in 5 categories vs 2 for SLU.

Overall, I DO NOT consider this game as unwinnable. We have played and won against higher ranked teams than Auburn has, but we lost one game and they have lost none. In terms of stats, SLU's stats compared to Auburn stats are comparable to our Stats against Providence but also our stats against Maryland. I think we can win this one, even in their home court, if we come ready to fight and to win.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Billiken Rich said:

What are the chances that an F grade 3pt shooting team has it's best 3pt shooting game of the year against us........at least 50/50....

Everyone seems to have their best 3 pt night against us. I think it's a combination of being bad at guarding the 3 and just running into teams during hot streaks 😅

unclecarl likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This will be a very tough road test for the Bills. On the good side Auburn's best players from last year who were key in their comeback win last year at our place are gone. If we play our best game of this season we could pull the upset.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Schasz said:

Also it will really help the case if Yuri stays out of foul trouble. Have to handle Auburn's press too! A couple more keys to giving us best our best chance.

Yuri being in foul trouble this game is way down on my list of concerns. He rarely gets in foul trouble. Okoro staying out of foul trouble will really help our case, he needs to come up big for us vs Auburn. We need to rebound and limit Auburn's second chances. I hope Thatch can get some minutes and Hargrove needs to get more clock this game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/25/2022 at 10:55 AM, Schasz said:

Also it will really help the case if Yuri stays out of foul trouble. Have to handle Auburn's press too! A couple more keys to giving us best our best chance.

Yuri fouled out of last year's contest, okay with two seconds left to play.  He did play 38 minutes, so we weren't handicapped all that much.

Starters for that game were Hargrove (35 minutes), Collins (38), Nesbitt (37), Jimerson (36) and Linssen (13).  Linssen was injured in the second half and didn't return. He had been playing well against their 7 footer Kessler.

Okoro played 27 minutes, Thatch 9, Jones 4, and Traore 1.  So we played a short bench.  I think many on this board felt that our last half slowdown of the game was the deciding factor. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is interesting, Team Rankings just published their Vegas spread, favoring Auburn to win the game by 6 pts. This is a totally different model than the Wiz's but the estimates for the spread are basically the same. Does this mean we are fated to lose this game, absolutely not, but we have to play like we mean to win it and keep the pressure all the way up to the end.

Schasz likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Old guy said:

This is interesting, Team Rankings just published their Vegas spread, favoring Auburn to win the game by 6 pts. This is a totally different model than the Wiz's but the estimates for the spread are basically the same. Does this mean we are fated to lose this game, absolutely not, but we have to play like we mean to win it and keep the pressure all the way up to the end.

Saw a quote from Bruce Pearl that he believes this year's Bills team is much better than last year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/25/2022 at 11:10 AM, brianstl said:

We have gone ten seasons and 0-16 since since we last beat a ranked team.  Time to change that Sunday.

I don’t know which is more disappointing the fact the Bills are 0-16 vs ranked teams or that they have only played 16 ranked teams in 10 years.

 

They have been just good enough for ranked teams to not overlook us. 

2010andBeyond likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A few points can be an obstacle higher than a mountain or something that can be surmounted. I think we are capable, and I would very much doubt that we will play Auburn in that day of days in which everything flows their way like it did with Maryland. These double outlier games may happen from time to time but they are most certainly not common. So, let's wait until tomorrow and see what actually happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course it’s coachspeak you idiot.  Maybe you think Pearl is dumb enough to provide bulletin board material instead.  And yes the Bills are better than last year with Perkins back in the lineup.  Duh.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

Of course it’s coachspeak you idiot.  Maybe you think Pearl is dumb enough to provide bulletin board material instead.  And yes the Bills are better than last year with Perkins back in the lineup.  Duh.

So you're saying he's not going to come out and say "Saint Louis sucks...we should beat them by three touchdowns"?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Yuri fouled out of last year's contest, okay with two seconds left to play.  He did play 38 minutes, so we weren't handicapped all that much.

Starters for that game were Hargrove (35 minutes), Collins (38), Nesbitt (37), Jimerson (36) and Linssen (13).  Linssen was injured in the second half and didn't return. He had been playing well against their 7 footer Kessler.

Okoro played 27 minutes, Thatch 9, Jones 4, and Traore 1.  So we played a short bench.  I think many on this board felt that our last half slowdown of the game was the deciding factor. 

I am a poster that felt that way however what I thought was worse he did not substitute when they made a run to go up 13 and Pearl called a timeout.

Many disagreed, don’t take your foot off the gas but that only works if there is gas left in the tank and my observation from my seat that there wasn’t any left.

In my opinion coach Ford’s decision is the reason the team lost.

I am a coach Ford fan, I have been a fan since coach Grawer was the coach and brought the program back.  Coach Ford has stabilized the program where the team is in the mix for the A10 every season and motivated me to be a season ticket holder.

billiken_roy likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...